Starting Pitching

[Rebbiv]

Over the last 5 years, AL Playoff teams have averaged 94-68 (.580). 72% of those wins come from the starters. In fact, starters account for 72% of ALL AL team wins in the last 5 years. So, if a team wins 94, then on average, 68 are from the starters. If a team wins 82, then on average, 59 are from the starters. The difference between playoff teams and teams barely over .500 is 9 more wins from their starters.

5-man rotations generally mean at least 31 Games Started per man. However, over the last 5 years, AL Playoff teams have only averaged 2.4 Starters with at least 31 Games Started. In fact, they only average 3.65 Starters with at least 25 Games Started. AL Playoff teams over the last 5 years average using 9.4 starters.

Over the last 5 years, only 11.4% of the teams had 4 starters with at least 30 GS or more. When that happened, they made the playoffs 75% of the time. Also, only 11.4% of the teams had 5 starters with at least 24 GS or more. Again, when this happened, they made the playoffs 75% of the time.

Sparky Anderson said he wanted 45-wins from his top 3 starters in order to make the playoffs. Yet, of the 20 AL Playoff teams over the last 5 years, only 9 teams actually did that. 15 Teams (if you include 2012 Tex) were at 43 wins or above from their top 3 starters. 22 Teams over the last 5 years had 3 starters with 43 or more wins. Only 4 teams received 50 or more, topping out with 2011 DET with 53 wins.

So, what is a #4 or #5 starter? Rarely does an AL team have 5 starters with 24 GS or more. The odds are the same of getting 4 starters with 30 GS or more in a season. To my knowledge, no team has had 5 starters of 30 or more GS over the last 5 years in the AL.

There are 53 pitchers in all of MLB with more than 84 starts over the last 3 seasons (average of 28 GS per season), they include Verlander (100), Scherzer (96), A. Sanchez (95), Porcello (89) and Fister (85).

30 MLB teams x 5 starters = 150 starters. 1-30 = #1, 31-60 = #2, 61-90 = #3, 91-120 = #4 and 121-150 = #5.

Over the last 3 years, there is 151 Starters with at least 38 GS (min 230 IP)

WAR for MLB starters over last 3 years (min 230 IP, 151 starters qualify)
# 1 Verlander 20.3
#16 A. Sanchez 12.0
#18 Fister 11.8
#20 Scherzer 11.1
#54 Porcello 7.7

WPA/LI for MLB starters over last 3 years (min 230 IP, 151 starters qualify)
#1 Verlander 13.57
#35 Fister 2.13
#45 Scherzer 1.47
#48 A. Sanchez 1.33
#107 Porcello -1.67

RA9-Wins for MLB Starter over the last 3 years (min 230 IP, 151 starters qualify)
#1 Verlander 22.8
#25 Fister 10.8
#28 Scherzer 10.5
#36 A. Sanchez 9.3
#107 Porcello 3.4

FIP for MLB Starter over the last 3 years (min 230 IP, 151 starters qualify)
#6 Velander 2.97
#19 Fister 3.34
#21 A. Sanchez 3.40
#43 Scherzer 3.71
#80 Porcello 4.09

xFIP for for MLB Starter over the last 3 years (min 230 IP, 151 starters qualify)
#10 Verlander 3.33
#22 Scherzer 3.54
#30 A. Sanchez 3.63
#33 Fister 3.70
#79 Porcello 4.05

Run Support/9 IP for MLB Starter over the last 3 years (min 230 IP, 151 starters qualify)
#11 Porcello 5.55
#17 Scherzer 5.38
#45 Verlander 4.99
#125 Fister 4.04
#143 A. Sanchez 3.80
**Felix Hernandez is #151 with 3.50 RS/9IP. 4 out of the top 10 have played for NYY, 3 out of top 10 have played for BOS.

We would all agree that Verlander is DET?s best starter and Porcello is the worst. We also would all agree that Verlander is truly an ace, or #1. The discussion then focuses on where are all the other pitchers. IMHO, Fister, A. Sanchez and Scherzer could all be argued as #2 or high #3. So where does that leave Porcello? He is hardly a #5. He is a #4, with a potential at age 23, to be a solid #3. And, with the right defense, possibly a #2 one day.

 

[Thumb]

Well I have never been one to hate on Porcello, but it's pretty unnerving that he has yet to develop an out pitch, or overcome his stamina related meltdowns after the 80 pitch mark. It's possible the only way he will ever improve is to go through another system.

I think he's a #4, and on some staffs, with excellent IF defense could be a solid #3.

 

[spockmaster]

personally, i dont think he's even a #5 starter, not the way he is. he has a sinker that doesnt even work all the time, no out pitch, stamina issues, and still seems to get rattled a lot (in my observations). he MIGHT be able to be a 3 or 4 at some point, but only if he manages to get a decent out pitch and makes his sinker more consistent. id rather dump him for what we can get and make him someone else's problem, its clear by now that our coaching staff can't or won't fix him.

 

[kalinecountry]

There is alot of statistical analysis/numbers. Thanks Kevin. Question to you is who would you like to see them have as 4th and 5th starters?

I think there was an article about Porcello's slider getting clobbered earlier this year.
and I was thinking along the lines, despite his meltdowns after a certain 75/80ish number of pitches, his age, and maybe they keep him for 2013, which for me in essence give him one more year, to see if he can take that next step to improve. Only because of his age.
But then I think of and see from your post, Porcello had the best run support and still put up what he did.

 

[mjsb2]

In addition to what thumb said about Porcello, there is the issue with his splits.

For his career LHB hit .305/.358/.464 off of him.

With a split like that, you can ignore the FIP and xFIP numbers.

Unless he figures out his stamina issues and how to pitch to lefties, he is a 5th starter.

 

[@Stakesarehigh]

I think Rick would be a very serviceable starter on a team with solid defense (2009 tigers) and as a result is better served as a trade chip.

I do agree however that sanchez for 15 million is crazy and would rather see RP in a tiger uni than sanchez at that price.

 

[kingofdetroit57]

We've supposedly let other teams know Porcello is available via trade (according to Olney anyways). What do you guys think he could reasonably bring in return?

 

[Mitchrapp]

A utility guy.

 

[kingofdetroit57]

A utility guy.

I'm no Porcello fan by any means, but c'mon Mitch.

In somewhat related news, I saw an article saying Boesch could get moved soon too. I'm wondering if we've already started talking about a Porcello/Peralta/Boesch deal with somebody. Winter Meetings start Monday, I believe, so it could happen pretty quickly if the foundation is already set.

 

[jdeb]

I think Porcello is going to win 20 games someday. He is only 24 in 2013. People tend to forget that he came up real early. He is one of those guys that when he leaves, will have better numbers. I can see him in a Washington Nationals or LA uniform. I think his numbers would be better with an above average defense behind him as jimmygank pointed out. If we trade him, we better get some real value for him.

 

[biggunsbob]

I just don't want to give up on him yet... Damn Rebbiv always has the stats... Very nice thanks for posting it...

 

[tigerfantroy]

I still think this is where we should spend the money. There is all this talk about we don't have a closer and there are people willing to spend 14 million or more on Soriano because we don't have a closer and it's not our money. Why wouldn't we spend that same amount on Sanchez. I agree his asking price is high but that kind of money spent on a starter makes more sense than a closer. I think it was Reb who mentioned that the last 2 years could be option years. I think 2 million spent on a guy like JP Howell makes more sense on upgrading the bullpen

 

[jdeb]

Hard to say that. We need to upgrade that bullpen, it was a glaring weakness in the playoffs. The lack of hitting was shocking in the WS but got to give to SF pitching, they brought it.

 

[tigersofjustice]

Hard to say that. We need to upgrade that bullpen, it was a glaring weakness in the playoffs. The lack of hitting was shocking in the WS but got to give to SF pitching, they brought it.

Glaring weakness? Where was the 'weakness' outside of Valverde who is now off the team?

We don't need starters. Porcello as the 'worst' starter on the team still puts up numbers that would make him on average about a 3.5 pitcher on most teams. That's a dang good rotation and they were among the best group in the league this year.

The Tigers need hitting after Fielder and defense.

 

[kingofdetroit57]

David Price is supposedly available in the right deal. I'd happily give them Porcello, Castellanos, and more. Could you imagine this team with a rotation of Verlander, Price, Scherzer, Fister, and Smyly?!?!?

 

[@Stakesarehigh]

David Price is supposedly available in the right deal. I'd happily give them Porcello, Castellanos, and more. Could you imagine this team with a rotation of Verlander, Price, Scherzer, Fister, and Smyly?!?!?

It would have to be a king's ransom to land price imo

 

[kingofdetroit57]

It would have to be a king's ransom to land price imo

I'd probably give it too. I think you're already borderline king's ransom with the likes of Porcello and Castellanos, and it could be built from there.

 

[jdeb]

Glaring weakness? Where was the 'weakness' outside of Valverde who is now off the team?

We don't need starters. Porcello as the 'worst' starter on the team still puts up numbers that would make him on average about a 3.5 pitcher on most teams. That's a dang good rotation and they were among the best group in the league this year.

The Tigers need hitting after Fielder and defense.

What about Benoit? He was marginal at best in the playoffs. He was horrible during the regular season and could not be trusted. Coke, Benoit, Valverde where all pretty bad during the regular season. The starters covered them up as they pitched very well in the playoffs.