Tigers sign SP Mike Pelfry and release him 3/30/2017

[jdeb]

Uummm..... I think rebbiv backed up his claim. He makes valid point and stats are stats, they are a result of... You can argue the importance of the stats all you want but he was comparing so it's fair. Also, the Twins were way better defensively than the Red Sox which makes this even a scarier acquisition. Some scout must have ignored the stats and seen an easily correctable flaw.

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[dale675]

What is the real difference between a WHIP 1.48 and .88? .6 or a little over 1 walk or hit per 2 innings indicates what exactly about a pitchers effectiveness?
Yeah, WHIP seems like a completely meaningless stat on its own.

the difference between a guy with a .88 WHIP and one who has a 1.48 is huge! It is the difference between being one of the best pitchers in baseball to being below average. Over the course of a year it probably means about 2 runs per 9 innings pitched.

Is this really in question? An example of the difference of .6 WHIP...

Pitcher A

0.86 WHIP
.185 AVG
2.35 FIP
1.77 ERA
150 HITS
48 BB
236 K
10 HR
8.6 WAR
229 IP


Pitcher B

1.48 WHIP
.304 AVG
4.00 FIP
4.26 ERA
198 HITS
45 BB
86 K
11 HR
1.4 WAR
164.2 IP




Pitcher A: Jake Arrieta
Pitcher B: Mike Pelfrey

 

[Mitchrapp]

Hey guys look, we have another Ophthalmologist.

This made me laugh.

 

[nsonnett14]

Uummm..... I think rebbiv backed up his claim. He makes valid point and stats are stats, they are a result of... You can argue the importance of the stats all you want but he was comparing so it's fair. Also, the Twins were way better defensively than the Red Sox which makes this even a scarier acquisition. Some scout must have ignored the stats and seen an easily correctable flaw.

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Ok my turn to post some stats

RAA

Porcello -9
Pelfrey -1

WAA

Porcello -1
Pelfrey -0.1

WAR
Porcello 0.6
Pelfrey 1.4

Runs allowed/9

Porcello 5.39
Pelfrey 4.29

HR/9

Porcello 1.3
Pelfrey 0.6

FIP

Porcello 4.13
Pelfrey 4.0


Hmmm , interesting . So ya see , its easy to leave out stats if it doesnt fir your argument . Besides , Rebbiv said that Statistically speaking Pelfrey had a FAR worse year than Porcello did and i simply said i don not see it that way .

So , even if we just used the stats he posted , that doesnt look like Pelfrey was THAT much worse than Porcello . Let me guess , the stats i posted dont hold any water because they arent as important , right ??

 

[Mitchrapp]

I'm not really sure it's fair to compare one guy who had his first decent year in 5 years, with one guy who had his career worse year. Take out last years and it's not really that close. Not sure one year should determine who's better.

 

[nsonnett14]

I'm not really sure it's fair to compare one guy who had his first decent year in 5 years, with one guy who had his career worse year. Take out last years and it's not really that close. Not sure one year should determine who's better.

Not sure who you are talking about ? If you mean Pelfrey , i dont think last year was considered a good year by any means haha ....... And the original statement was about comparing last year . By no means do i think Pelfrey is a better pitcher throughout his Career , but based on last year alone its quite comparable . That was all i was trying to point out and showing its easy to just pick and choose what stats you post. Think we all can agree they both stunk last year

 

[Mitchrapp]

Not sure who you are talking about ? If you mean Pelfrey , i dont think last year was considered a good year by any means haha ....... And the original statement was about comparing last year . By no means do i think Pelfrey is a better pitcher throughout his Career , but based on last year alone its quite comparable . That was all i was trying to point out and showing its easy to just pick and choose what stats you post. Think we all can agree they both stunk last year

Compared to his previous years it was good. That's what I meant. And yes, neither was any good.

 

[Rebbiv]

Ok my turn to post some stats

RAA

Porcello -9
Pelfrey -1

WAA

Porcello -1
Pelfrey -0.1

WAR
Porcello 0.6
Pelfrey 1.4

Runs allowed/9

Porcello 5.39
Pelfrey 4.29

HR/9

Porcello 1.3
Pelfrey 0.6

FIP

Porcello 4.13
Pelfrey 4.0


Hmmm , interesting . So ya see , its easy to leave out stats if it doesnt fir your argument . Besides , Rebbiv said that Statistically speaking Pelfrey had a FAR worse year than Porcello did and i simply said i don not see it that way .

So , even if we just used the stats he posted , that doesnt look like Pelfrey was THAT much worse than Porcello . Let me guess , the stats i posted dont hold any water because they arent as important , right ??

Isn't Runs Allowed/9 is essentially ERA, no?

RAA is essentially Runs Allowed/9 expressed with win-adjustment.

If one player is in a hitter's park and hitter's league and the other is is a pitcher friendly park, would HR/9 even be a worthy stat for comparison?

I won't even go into how much WAR is such an unreliable stat for comparisons. WAA is just WAR without the replacement value calculated.

FIP is a valid statistic, yet biased and is different than xFIP. xFIP used the actual number of home runs allowed. FIP estimates how many home runs they should have allowed given the number of fly balls they surrendered while assuming a league average home run to fly ball percentage (between 9 and 10% depending on the year). So I will let you be the judge as to which one is more viable.

Both Pelfrey and Porcello are ground-ball pitchers.

Porcello did have a bad 2015, with a good 2nd half. He pitched in a known hitter's park in a known hitter-friendly division. He had one of the worst infield defenses playing behind him.

Pelfrey also had a bad 2015. He played in a pitcher friendly/pitcher neutral park and had one of the best infield defenses playing behind him

 

[Thumb]

Stat monkeys?

ROFL

Is that really the best you got?

 

[JackCade]

the difference between a guy with a .88 WHIP and one who has a 1.48 is huge! It is the difference between being one of the best pitchers in baseball to being below average. Over the course of a year it probably means about 2 runs per 9 innings pitched.

Is it really huge? Does it really mean 2 runs per 9 innings?
Lets say it means 3 more hitters or walks per start, roughly. How many of those come across the plate? Returning to the grounders up the middle, I'd be curious to know what pitcher produces the most double plays. But would also be dubious of if it actually means anything.

BTW, stat monkey's is a term of endearment, I get bored by the stats, and think that seeing only stats and making only stat based analysis of something as complex as baseball is more thought experiment than actual statement of reality.
I admire the ability to dig into them, but am critical of the lack of contextualization.

 

[Mitchrapp]

I'm too lazy to do the math but 1.48 whip sucks. If you have a good bullpen coming in after him then for a short time can get away with a high whip like that. High whip but reasonable ERA probably means not many HR given up. That usually doesn't stay true year after year. I suspect if he has a 1.48 whip this upcoming season he's looking at an ERA of 5+.

 

[tomdalton22]

Is it really huge? Does it really mean 2 runs per 9 innings?
Lets say it means 3 more hitters or walks per start, roughly. How many of those come across the plate? Returning to the grounders up the middle, I'd be curious to know what pitcher produces the most double plays. But would also be dubious of if it actually means anything.

BTW, stat monkey's is a term of endearment, I get bored by the stats, and think that seeing only stats and making only stat based analysis of something as complex as baseball is more thought experiment than actual statement of reality.
I admire the ability to dig into them, but am critical of the lack of contextualization.

I looked at last years stats (all of MLB & qualified). The top 4 pitchers in terms of WHIP had an average of 0.875 and their average ERA was 2.09. There were only 8 qualified starters with a WHIP over 1.4, their average WHIP was 1.43 and their average ERA was 4.35. Based on this quick analysis it seems like 2 runs was a little low.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Is it really huge? Does it really mean 2 runs per 9 innings?

He was using Kershaw and Pelfrey as examples, I think. About two runs per nine innings.

 

[JackCade]

But, like again, if every pitcher were a Cy-type pitcher one of them would have a "sucky" WHIP, but would it really be bad? Would it really be predictive of anything?

So, what does it really mean? Just throwing up a WHIP and saying, see worst. Doesn't actually say anything.

The big issue with Pelfrey is that he was so inconsistent and been injured 2 out of the last 4 years, I don't see him eating up a lot of innings and find it hard to doubt he won't be out this year.
The Tigers have the pen now to pull him early and erase his mistakes, maybe, and if he is healthy and reprises his good years he'll be worth it
But 2 years?!?

I guess, I'm just saying he isn't the worst the Tigers could've gotten and there are reasons to see what the Tigers are thinking with getting him

 

[JackCade]

Now that is context.

Really, 2 runs!
Yeah, he is bad, and I wasn't denying that I don't get the pick up and don't approve of it.
Reb's throw stats up posts don't really say anything, we all know Pelrey is bad, although these aren't all of the stats that there are.

I guess if he doesn't pan out the stat-monkeys should eat the heart out of the chest of the scout who recommended the pickup.

 

[tomdalton22]

But, like again, if every pitcher were a Cy-type pitcher one of them would have a "sucky" WHIP, but would it really be bad? Would it really be predictive of anything?

So, what does it really mean? Just throwing up a WHIP and saying, see worst. Doesn't actually say anything.

The big issue with Pelfrey is that he was so inconsistent and been injured 2 out of the last 4 years, I don't see him eating up a lot of innings and find it hard to doubt he won't be out this year.
The Tigers have the pen now to pull him early and erase his mistakes, maybe, and if he is healthy and reprises his good years he'll be worth it
But 2 years?!?

I guess, I'm just saying he isn't the worst the Tigers could've gotten and there are reasons to see what the Tigers are thinking with getting him

ok...maybe this will make it easier for you to understand.

The active career leaders in WHIP (top 10)

Kershaw
Bumgarner
Price
Hamels
Weaver
Zimmermann
Wainwright
King Felix
Max
Cueto.

Here are the bottom 10

Ramon Ortiz
Kevin COrreia
Deinson Volquez
Jorge De Larosa
Feff Francis
Jason Marquis
Dewin Jackson
Oliver Perez
Zach Duke
Mike Pelfrey.

83 guys qualified for the list. The top guy was Kershaw...the bottom guy is Pelfrey. Which list looks like the list of good pitchers and which one looks like 10 scrubs?

 

[Mitchrapp]

Now that is context.

Really, 2 runs!
Yeah, he is bad, and I wasn't denying that I don't get the pick up and don't approve of it.
Reb's throw stats up posts don't really say anything, we all know Pelrey is bad, although these aren't all of the stats that there are.

I guess if he doesn't pan out the stat-monkeys should eat the heart out of the chest of the scout who recommended the pickup.

The thing with Sabermetrics is we can see how good Miggy is. Sabermetrics tells you just how good. Like like we can see how bad Pelfrey is but Sabermetrics tells you just how bad.

 

[Mitchrapp]

But looking at just stats, stats can sometimes lie. That's where Sabermetrics comes in.

 

[byco42]

Apparently some here need to see some statistics to support the assertion that statistics are a valid way to evaluate baseball players.

 

[@Stakesarehigh]

There is no defending the pelfrey signing. He is terrible.