Verlander looking like a right-handed Sabathia, but worse

[biggunsbob]

http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/p...ooking-like-a-right-handed-sabathia-but-worse

sorry Ron if you already posted this.. I looked and didn't see it in the notes..

 

[biggunsbob]

Wear and tear (Did we over use JV) ?

That Verlander’s velocity has decreased so much probably isn’t a surprise given his workload. From 2009 to 2014, he threw 1,454⅔ innings, combining regular season and postseason. That’s 60⅓ innings more than the pitcher with the next-biggest workload, Felix Hernandez. In fact, the only other pitcher within 130 innings of Verlander is James Shields (1,390).

Verlander and Shields rank 1-2 in pitches thrown over that span. But Verlander has approximately 2,000 more than Shields does.

 

[kingofdetroit57]

I think it's a bit premature to write off JV this year. Not saying he's going to be the Cy Young and MVP pitcher of old, but he's still got good velocity (96mph+) and good off speed pitches in his arsenal. He's just got to start locating better and changing the way he pitches. His fastball isn't the blow 'em away out pitch it used to be, so he shouldn't still be using it that way. I think this is where JV's hard-headedness is getting the best of him. He's gotta change and adapt.

Also, while the end result sucked again, JV looked very good in innings 2-4 yesterday. That was encouraging to me given that it is his 4th start of the year after going out on the DL in spring training. I don't think he's as far off the mark as people are saying he is. Hell, look at how bad Anibal looked in April and May compared to now. I'd be much more concerned if I saw JV's stuff was gone or that he appeared to be hurt. I think he'll come around soon.

 

[tomdalton22]

I think it's a bit premature to write off JV this year. Not saying he's going to be the Cy Young and MVP pitcher of old, but he's still got good velocity (96mph+) and good off speed pitches in his arsenal. He's just got to start locating better and changing the way he pitches. His fastball isn't the blow 'em away out pitch it used to be, so he shouldn't still be using it that way. I think this is where JV's hard-headedness is getting the best of him. He's gotta change and adapt.

Also, while the end result sucked again, JV looked very good in innings 2-4 yesterday. That was encouraging to me given that it is his 4th start of the year after going out on the DL in spring training. I don't think he's as far off the mark as people are saying he is. Hell, look at how bad Anibal looked in April and May compared to now. I'd be much more concerned if I saw JV's stuff was gone or that he appeared to be hurt. I think he'll come around soon.

I agree that he won't be this bad...it's almost impossible. While his velocity seems good at times (hitting 96 yesterday) the pitches don't have much movement. When he was dominant his fastballs were averaging about 4 MPH above what he has done this and last year but they seemed to dart all over the strike zone. His curve doesn't appear to have much bite either but that is likely due to lack of reps.

I think he will be better going forward but with some clunkers just like any pitcher. That said...I don't think he will be what the Tigers need out of him which is unfortunate. Going into the season I was HOPING for at least his career average numbers which would have been an ERA around 3.5 and 1.2 WHIP.

 

[tigermud]

His fastball is too straight and hitters have no problem picking it up, I'm tellin ya he needs to add deception somehow and or get the fastball to move more..if he can do that he'll be successful with a life after 100 transition and go on to win 300 games..I don't think he's going to be able to do that this year but IMO it should be something he immediately starts to work on this off season

 

[manchild98]

I know this part isn't his fault because the reporters have to ask questions and he has to answer them but.....he's turning into Tiger Woods with reporters. JV has basically been lousy for about 2 years now? Yes, he's dealt with injuries, but I'm just tired of hearing him say how he's close in every interview and then he goes out there and sucks.

I'll certainly give him some more time (plus I have no choice) since this is just his 4th start after missing this entire season but it's time to start doing and not talking about it. Honestly, I just don't see him even being good again. If he can't strike guys out then he's going to get hit.

 

[byco42]

IMO, he looks like he's throwing pies out there. I'd have to look at comparisons to perhaps 2011 to 2015 to validate.

 

[tigermud]

Or maybe He need to become one of those guys that keeps the fastballs off the plate and or corner picks with it and then gets outs with off speed stuff. I mean we see guys like all the time that shut the Tigers down it does work for some.

 

[Rebbiv]

I think he needs to close for a season or two (ala John Smoltz, Ryan Dempster, etc, etc).


While I realize you don't generally pay a reliever $20+ Mil, this might rest him up to go back to starting.

Also, very rarely do starters win the Cy Young after the age of 30. Paying any starter "Cy Young" money and expecting "Cy Young" performance past 30 is naive. Do I think he can be an effective #1 or #2 starter? Yes.

He also needs to get rid of Kate.

 

[byco42]

I think he needs to close for a season or two (ala John Smoltz, Ryan Dempster, etc, etc).


While I realize you don't generally pay a reliever $20+ Mil, this might rest him up to go back to starting.

Also, very rarely do starters win the Cy Young after the age of 30. Paying any starter "Cy Young" money and expecting "Cy Young" performance past 30 is naive. Do I think he can be an effective #1 or #2 starter? Yes.

He also needs to get rid of Kate.

I call her Memo Paris.

 

[kingofdetroit57]

I think he needs to close for a season or two (ala John Smoltz, Ryan Dempster, etc, etc).


While I realize you don't generally pay a reliever $20+ Mil, this might rest him up to go back to starting.

Also, very rarely do starters win the Cy Young after the age of 30. Paying any starter "Cy Young" money and expecting "Cy Young" performance past 30 is naive. Do I think he can be an effective #1 or #2 starter? Yes.

He also needs to get rid of Kate.

I could get behind that happening. It isn't like our pen couldn't use an upgrade. I'd guess that we'd also see triple digits or closer to it if he only had to worry about one inning.

 

[kingofdetroit57]

I know this part isn't his fault because the reporters have to ask questions and he has to answer them but.....he's turning into Tiger Woods with reporters. JV has basically been lousy for about 2 years now? Yes, he's dealt with injuries, but I'm just tired of hearing him say how he's close in every interview and then he goes out there and sucks.

I'll certainly give him some more time (plus I have no choice) since this is just his 4th start after missing this entire season but it's time to start doing and not talking about it. Honestly, I just don't see him even being good again. If he can't strike guys out then he's going to get hit.

Agree 100%. I wish the media would give it a rest and just realize he's not the guy he was anymore. Leave him alone, let him try to work through it, and quit putting him on the spot for the stupid Q&A. While I'd certainly appreciate more candor from JV, Woods, etc., you can't expect it. So much of sports is mental that they almost need to buy into the facade that they created previously or they'll certainly fail.

 

[Thumb]

He also needs to get rid of Kate.

We don't always agree one everything, bit I think this is the first time I have seen you post something I just considered dumb.

 

[gotime909]

We don't always agree one everything, bit I think this is the first time I have seen you post something I just considered dumb.

Yeah, that didn't seem to work for Tony Romo.

 

[gotime909]

He's had stretches where he's looking really good and then just loses it. I really hate agreeing with Rod and Mario, but I'm hoping that it really is just that he's going through his "spring training".....as dumb as that sounds.

 

[Rebbiv]

We don't always agree one everything, bit I think this is the first time I have seen you post something I just considered dumb.

Sarcasm doesn't always come across does it?

 

[Thumb]

Sarcasm doesn't always come across does it?

Apparently not. My apologies, but there are an astounding number of nitwits who think exactly that though.

 

[stonecold2136]

I think he needs to close for a season or two (ala John Smoltz, Ryan Dempster, etc, etc).


While I realize you don't generally pay a reliever $20+ Mil, this might rest him up to go back to starting.

Also, very rarely do starters win the Cy Young after the age of 30. Paying any starter "Cy Young" money and expecting "Cy Young" performance past 30 is naive. Do I think he can be an effective #1 or #2 starter? Yes.

He also needs to get rid of Kate.

Verlander and C.C. both rewarded for past performance. Long term deals on starting pitchers are the worst most risky contracts in baseball.

To get anything out of JV at this point would be a plus.

He is getting paid 28 million a year the final years of his contract.

Frustrating watching JV anymore

 

[Rebbiv]

Sabathia signed his extension after the 2011 season, meaning he was turning 32 in 2012, the first year of that extension. He is signed through 2016 (36 yr old), with an option year.

Verlander signed his extension in Spring Training of 2013, right after he turned 30. He is signed through 2019 (36 yr old), with an option year.

Basically, we are talking about 2 years difference and they both had contracts that took them through age 36 without the option year.

Last 3 Years Away before extension years

Verlander 368.3 IP .223 BAVG .279 OBP .350 SLG .629 OPS 1.11 WHIP 3.52 SO/BB

Sabathia 371.6 IP .256 BAVG .314 OBP .386 SLG .700 OPS 1.27 WHIP 2.92 SO/BB

Part of Sabathia's issue is his knees and weight. Clearly Verlander was the better pitcher before the extension. While regression is expected as they age, no one here could have expected what has transpired to date.

And FYI...I am one who frowns on long term contracts, because they rarely work out favorably, especially for pitchers. Whether it is Mike Hampton or Albert Belle, the history is there of falloff and/or injuries. But I wasn't necessarily against signing Verlander or Cabrera to their deals to remain Tigers.


Knowing what they know now, does the Rockies still sign Tulowitzki to the 10-year contract? If they hadn't and he became a Free Agent, he still gets some team to pay him.

It is always a gamble and we can Monday Morning Quarterback all day long.

 

[tigermud]

I will hold firm in saying that JV's problem is one pitch, his fastball, if he can get something figured out with that he'll be fine. It lacks movement and hitters don't seem to have any problem what so ever picking it up. It may require drastic change for him, i'm not sure, not something he'll likely be able to change this year. He'll have to work on it in the off season. If he is unsuccessful in reinventing his fastball that will be it for him IMO he'll be retired in another year or two.