2012 Cy Young race

[johnny2x2x]

Weaver vs. Verlander.

http://www.freep.com/article/201208...-jered-weaver?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|Sports

A few years ago Weaver would have been running away with it, but now with more advanced stats it's a closer rate. Weaver has wins and era, WHIP is close, JV has WAR, IP, and Ks.

Price has great numbers too, but he's not getting much attention right now.

 

[Rebbiv]

WPA/LI (better stat than WAR)

Verlander 3.73

Weaver 3.11

Sale 2.83

Hernandez 2.74

Kershaw 2.52

Cueto 2.21

Price 2.13

Harrison 2.03

Peavy 2.00

Beachy 1.96

 

[mjsb2]

WPA/LI (better stat than WAR)

Verlander 3.73

Weaver 3.11

Sale 2.83

Hernandez 2.74

Kershaw 2.52

Cueto 2.21

Price 2.13

Harrison 2.03

Peavy 2.00

Beachy 1.96

WPA/LI is the one where they don't take into the situation, correct?

That is, each strikeout adds the same to the WPA/LI whereas in plain WPA a strikeout with runners on 2nd and 3rd in the 9th would be worth more than one in the 1st with 2 outs and nobody on...is that right or am I way off?

 

[grandy]

Sounds about right based on BR's definition

WPA/LI Situational Wins. Sum of each plays WPA divided by the play's leverage index. SUM(WPA/LI) for all plays. This is similarly scaled to WPA, but removes the context from the outcome, so for this stat a player with 30 home runs all in blowouts would look very similar to a batter with 30 home runs all in tie games. They would look much different in WPA. Generally used for a season or career.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/wpa.shtml

 

[tigersofjustice]

JV has over 150% of the WAR that Weaver has. There are too many statistically inclined voters at this point for that to be ignored. JV is in the lead, Weaver has had a lot of very favorable luck that will probably regress anyway.

Really, Felix Hernandez has been the next best pitcher and will probably be the closest competitor before season's end.

 

[Thumb]

Weaver looks good because of ERA, and W-L (which should not be a factor), and OPP batting stats which are a result of a great defense.

He is significantly behind in IP, and K's, JV has more QS, more CG.

JV's defense independent ERA (Dips) 3.04

Weavers defense independent ERA (Dips) 3.34

All things being equal, Weaver is nowhere near JV, and Felix and D. Price actually round out the top 3.

 

[kalinecountry]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching/_/league/al/sort/runSupportPerStart/type/expanded-2
Run Support per start.

for any of the voters that look at Wins, and some still do,
weaver leads the AL starting pitchers with 6.40 run support average per start.
JV is down at 37th with 3.57 run support average per start.

 

[Mitchrapp]

The question is do voters at those advanced metrics?

 

[manchild98]

The question is do voters at those advanced metrics?

I think only some do. The fact is if a vote were held today they would vote for Weaver and I think he'd win fairly easily. They'd look at the wins, the single loss and the era...and he plays for a team in the playoff hunt.

 

[Thumb]

I think only some do. The fact is if a vote were held today they would vote for Weaver and I think he'd win fairly easily. They'd look at the wins, the single loss and the era...and he plays for a team in the playoff hunt.

If that was true Felix Hernandez would not have won in 2010.

Some voters will be homers and vote for a hometown guy, some will look at ERA and Wins, and some will look at big picture, like they did last year when JV won the MVP also.

 

[manchild98]

If that was true Felix Hernandez would not have won in 2010.

Some voters will be homers and vote for a hometown guy, some will look at ERA and Wins, and some will look at big picture, like they did last year when JV won the MVP also.

In 2010, Felix's era was .5 lower than anyone else's. I think JV winning both the MVP and Cy Yong last year hurts him. Voters will say he didn't have as great of a year.

 

[Thumb]

As last year, maybe not.

But compared to the other AL pitchers, JV is clearly better, and Weaver without the Angles defense and range, probably is not even in this discussion.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Back to back CY would be great but regardless just don't let it be Weaver.

 

[tomdalton22]

As last year, maybe not.

But compared to the other AL pitchers, JV is clearly better, and Weaver without the Angles defense and range, probably is not even in this discussion.

Probably not even in the discussion? I think you are going a little overboard with that statement.

 

[byco42]

Felix's advanced stats made him the clear winner in 2010, and hopefully they will factor into the decision for 2012.

 

[cmlfactor]

Unfortunately, at this point anyway, JV's W-L is going to hurt him. At Weaver's got the no-hitter under his belt to boot...just like JV last year.

 

[Thumb]

Probably not even in the discussion? I think you are going a little overboard with that statement.

Oh?

Why don't you look at the numbers?

Verlander, Hernandez, Sale, and Price all have better defense independent ERA's (Dips).

Weaver has the fewest K's of any of them, lowest K/9, and fewest IP and the lowest WAR.

He also has the lowest hitting numbers against, which in turn translates to his lowest ERA, the fact is his defense is fantastic. They are not only good gloves, but they have excellent range, so while Weaver gets a higher % of balls put in play, his defense vacuums them all up for outs.

Put Weaver on the Tigers and his numbers are not even close to what they are now.

So my statement is not at all overboard, Weaver is a good pitcher but JV, Hernandez, and Price beat him easily, and he just edges Sale in an objective top 5.

Weaver is good, but he does not dominate hitters like the other 4 do, his defense does.

 

[tomdalton22]

Oh?

Why don't you look at the numbers?

Verlander, Hernandez, Sale, and Price all have better defense independent ERA's (Dips).

Weaver has the fewest K's of any of them, lowest K/9, and fewest IP and the lowest WAR.

He also has the lowest hitting numbers against, which in turn translates to his lowest ERA, the fact is his defense is fantastic. They are not only good gloves, but they have excellent range, so while Weaver gets a higher % of balls put in play, his defense vacuums them all up for outs.

Put Weaver on the Tigers and his numbers are not even close to what they are now.

So my statement is not at all overboard, Weaver is a good pitcher but JV, Hernandez, and Price beat him easily, and he just edges Sale in an objective top 5.

Weaver is good, but he does not dominate hitters like the other 4 do, his defense does.

You said he wasn't even in the discussion which is ridiculous to say. He leads the league in wins, winning %, ERA and WHIP. I do understand that he has a better defense behind him but to say he isn't dominant and deserving to be in the discussion is crazy. JV does have 7 losses and you can't blame all of them on poor defense.

 

[Thumb]

You said he wasn't even in the discussion which is ridiculous to say. He leads the league in wins, winning %, ERA and WHIP. I do understand that he has a better defense behind him but to say he isn't dominant and deserving to be in the discussion is crazy. JV does have 7 losses and you can't blame all of them on poor defense.

See, right here is why I'm done talking with you...

Anyone with 2 brain cells capable of functioning knows Wins are a TEAM STAT, not an individual one, and it's stupid to use them as an evaluating tool for a pitchers success.

Again, Weaver his the most Wins, but also the highest run support, think that's a coincidence? It's not.

And ERA and WHIP are explained by his defense, how low do you think some of our guys ERA's would be if we had better range up the middle or at the corners? How about corner OF?

 

[tomdalton22]

See, right here is why I'm done talking with you...

Anyone with 2 brain cells capable of functioning knows Wins are a TEAM STAT, not an individual one, and it's stupid to use them as an evaluating tool for a pitchers success.

Again, Weaver his the most Wins, but also the highest run support, think that's a coincidence? It's not.

And ERA and WHIP are explained by his defense, how low do you think some of our guys ERA's would be if we had better range up the middle or at the corners? How about corner OF?

Wins and losses are based on team stats....but the pitchers have a lot to do with it too. To say that JV doesn't deserve some of those losses is stupid. You have to look at everything...not just things that support your argument. I think JV is the best pitcher in baseball but to say that Weaver shouldn't be in the discussion....come on....stop being such a homer. Another thing...it's the Cy Young award....it's not the best Dips, K/9 WAR award. Sometimes a player gets the advantage of having a good defense around him...or maybe an offensive player gets the advantage of playing in a hitters park....or having another great hitter protecting him in the order. Are you going to bring up the advantage that Miggy has because Prince is hitting behind him when he is in the MVP discussion?