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2012 Electoral College Thread

A lot of spin flying around in Ohio regarding early voting, ie, Obama up 20+ pts based on small sampling(Time poll). What we do know is 220,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio compared with 2008. And 30,000 more Republicans have cast their ballots compared with four years ago. That is a 250,000-vote net increase for a state Obama won by 260,000 votes in 2008.
 
Rasmussen Swing State Tracker: 10/27/2012
with leaners
Total GOP Dem Indep
R 51% 90% 13% 54%
O 45% 9% 84% 39%

Romney has been up at least 4 pts over the last week with today being the highest percentage yet
 
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Bunch more polls out

North Carolina
http://www.gravispolls.com/2012/10/gravis-marketing-north-carolina-public.html
Romney +8

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...rolina/election_2012_north_carolina_president
Romney +6

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_1025.pdf
Tie

Virginia
http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/October_v7.pdf
Tie

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2012/10/25/fox-news-poll-virginia-oct-25/
Romney +2

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ion/virginia/election_2012_virginia_president
Romney +2


Colorado
http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/October_v7.pdf
Obama +1

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/S...o Annotated Questionnaire_October 25 2012.pdf
Tie

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_CO_1025.pdf
Obama +4


Ohio
http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/October_v7.pdf
Obama +2

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/10/26/topoh2.pdf
Obama +4

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/OH12.html
Obama +2


Florida
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ction/florida/election_2012_florida_president
Romney +2

http://www.gravispolls.com/2012/10/florida-poll-shows-romney-and-obama.html
Romney +1


Nevada
http://www.gravispolls.com/2012/10/gravis-marketing-nevada-presidential.html
Obama +1

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/S...a Annotated Questionnaire_October 25 2012.pdf
Obama +4

-------------------------

http://www.stltoday.com/post-dispat...pdf_5d146531-1663-5e98-9be6-8409e3e95a55.html
Romney +13 in Missouri

http://www.gravispolls.com/2012/10/iowa-public-opinion-poll-shows-obama.html
Obama +4 in Iowa

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...n/wisconsin/election_2012_wisconsin_president
Tie in Wisconsin

http://www.wmur.com/political-scoop...NH/-/16254890/17139318/-/2ivk5kz/-/index.html
Obama +3 in NH

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...sylvania/election_2012_pennsylvania_president
Obama +5 in Penn
 
Still waiting on Minnesota, Oregon, New Mexico, and Connecticut
 
What happened to the good old days of waiting to the election to cast a vote. Ohio and Florida both have started getting people to the polls.
 
Well if you vote absentee ballot your not really waiting until the election either. Not sure why it matters, they don't allow only 1 party not to vote early.
 
Well if you vote absentee ballot your not really waiting until the election either. Not sure why it matters, they don't allow only 1 party not to vote early.

I get that but it actually helps the Dems because we all know they stay away with bad weather ;-). So this way they make sure its nice out and then go vote. I was more curious than anything else..
 
Not sure if this is accurate but I think early voting got a real push after 2004 when lines in OH and other swing states were very long and discouraged people from voting.
 
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Three more polls out today

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/CO12.html
Romney +1 in Colorado

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/10/29/topfl3.pdf
Romney +2 in Florida

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...al_election/ohio/election_2012_ohio_president
Romney +2 in Ohio

I wonder if any early voting may have an effect on the Ohio polls, will people who have already voted still participate in polls (or can they even participate)?


They polled people wether they voted or not. They breakdown the percentage of people who already voted and who they voted for...so the answer is yes, they're counted

edited: from Rasmussen..
Nearly one-in-three Ohio voters (32%) have already cast their ballots. Obama leads 62% to 36% among these voters. Romney has a large lead among those who still plan to vote.
 
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They polled people wether they voted or not. They breakdown the percentage of people who already voted and who they voted for...so the answer is yes, they're counted

edited: from Rasmussen..
Nearly one-in-three Ohio voters (32%) have already cast their ballots. Obama leads 62% to 36% among these voters. Romney has a large lead among those who still plan to vote.

I was referring to polls in general, I'll be interested to see if all of them take into account early voting.

-----------------------

New Oregon poll

http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2012/10/obama_leads_in_oregon_thanks_t.html
Obama up 6
 
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