2012 Electoral College Thread

[tsmith7559]

That's not a good sign? Whose side are you on, anyway?

not if you're a dem.....

 

[grandy]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ion/virginia/election_2012_virginia_president
Romney up 2 in Virginia

http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_21759147/poll-romney-gains-obama-colorado-but-race-remains
Romney up 1 in Colorado

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ion/michigan/election_2012_michigan_president
Obama up 7 in Michigan

 

[Mitchrapp]

The 5thirty8 probability chart:

Still twice as much which seems kind of high.

 

[tsmith7559]

11 State Swing Vote Tracking
Rasmussen: Sunday

TOTAL GOP Dem Other Con Mod Lib Men Wom 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+
Rom 49% 90% 13% 49% 85% 39% 9% 54% 45% 34% 40% 68% 48% 56%
Oba 47% 9% 85% 43% 14% 54% 91% 42% 52% 62% 50% 31% 51% 41%

 

[grandy]

Over the weekend polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/RMP_AZ_1013.pdf
Obama up 2 in Arizona

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/NMB_MN_1011.pdf
Obama up 4 in Minnesota

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OH_1013.pdf
Obama up 5 in Ohio

http://www.abqjournal.com/main/2012/10/14/politics/obama-builds-n-m-lead-over-romney.html
Obama up 10 in New Mexico

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_FL_1014.pdf
Romney up 1 in Florida

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_1014.pdf
Romney up 2 in NC

NC, Minnesota and Arizona moved to toss-up for the time being

 

[Mitchrapp]

Wasn't there an early poll that had Romney up 7 in Florida. They change so much in a matter of a couple days.

 

[Thumb]

Wasn't there an early poll that had Romney up 7 in Florida. They change so much in a matter of a couple days.

No two polls are alike either.

 

[redandguilty]

from five thirty eight

There have been plenty of elections before when the outcome was highly uncertain down the stretch run or on Election Day itself. But I am not sure that there has been one where different types of polls pointed in opposite directions. Anyone in my business who is not a bit terrified by this set of facts is either lying to himself — or he doesn’t know what he’s doing.

The difference he's talking about is Romney doing better in national polls and Obama doing better is electoral college estimates with the potential explanation being that Obama does better in competitive states and Romney does better in noncompetitive states. There are specific cases both supporting and refuting that idea.

 

[redandguilty]

http://www.rollingstone.com/politic...igger-than-the-presidential-election-20121009

Matt Taibbi suggests that publishing poll numbers should be illegal. Of course he's wrong because 1st Amendment...but that aside, it's kind of a great idea. Same as not publishing preseason football polls would be great. Actually, it's even more important to the result than in the football case, because the business of reporting poll numbers overshadows reporting actual positions so dramatically.

That's the dirtiest secret we in the media have kept from you over the years: Most of us suck so badly at our jobs, and are so uninterested in delving into any polysyllabic subject, that we would literally have to put down our shovels and go home if we didn't have poll numbers we can use to terrify our audiences.

Mainly for grim commercial reasons, we in the media manipulate people to stay wired on hate and panic-focused on the race for every waking moment, indifferent to how much this depresses the hell out of everyone. In doing so, we rob people of their patriotism and their desire to vote.

 

[grandy]

I'll resume updating this thread on the weekend when the post-debate polls should be rolling in

 

[grandy]

Cleared out some old polls

Here's the first post-debate poll I've seen

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...al_election/ohio/election_2012_ohio_president
Rasmussen with Obama up 1 in Ohio

 

[grandy]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...rolina/election_2012_north_carolina_president

New NC poll has Romney up 6

NC moved to leaning Romney

 

[grandy]

Five More Post-Debate Polls Out

Two from Rasmussen
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ion/virginia/election_2012_virginia_president
Romney +3 in Virginia

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ion/missouri/election_2012_missouri_president
Romney +11 in Missouri

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=242a16b4-1a4c-47eb-a09e-52040667cc42
Obama +7 in Oregon

http://www.freep.com/article/20121018/NEWS15/121018064/poll-obama-wider-michigan-lead-after-debate
Obama +6 in Michigan

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_CO_1018.pdf
Obama +3 in Colorado

Missouri moved to leaning Romney

 

[grandy]

I will resume updating this later in the week or whenever the post-last-debate polls start trickling in

Two weeks until the election

 

[tsmith7559]

I will resume updating this later in the week or whenever the post-last-debate polls start trickling in

Two weeks until the election

I don't think the last two debates had any impact and I dont think there are too many undecided voters. It's all about turnout and enthusiasm at this point.

 

[grandy]

First post-debate poll out

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...al_election/ohio/election_2012_ohio_president
Tie in Ohio

 

[Mitchrapp]

I heard that people in Ohio are voting already? Not absentee but actually going to the polls. Truth, anyone know?

 

[redandguilty]

I don't think the last two debates had any impact and I dont think there are too many undecided voters. It's all about turnout and enthusiasm at this point.

...and puncturing tires of those people that offer to drive vans of people to the polls.

I'm going to set up fake voting booths in places where people predominantly vote differently than I do.

 

[Mitchrapp]

I hope it snows everywhere on voting day.

"I will vote Obama, oh unless its a bad whether day and I will stay home" -- Libs motto.

 

[Thumb]

I hope it snows everywhere on voting day.

"I will vote Obama, oh unless its a bad whether day and I will stay home" -- Libs motto.

"I will vote for anyone but the black guy" -- conservatives motto.