2022 NFL Draft Strategy - Thru Week 13

[mhughes0021]

Quick Look at where we are expected to pick and options thru week 13.

1a #1 - Our % chance to pick #1 has dropped following our first win to basically 50/50.

Its widely expected the value at #1 will be with an Edge Rusher. KT or Hutchinson are expected to be the picks. it could be either...i wouldnt mind either one. KT brings a little more athleticism as a true edge. Hutch is more of an upgrade over Okwara imo. We need both on this team.

Trade down is always an option and Holmes has shown he understands he needs to stack picks when rebuilding (except when hes trading multiple picks for guys hes never heard of that dont even make sundays roster). Theres several teams that have multiple 1s this upcomming draft....2 of them i dont see them really making a big move unless they fall in love with a QB.

NY Jets - current projected picks at 4 and 9. I dont see them moving since they have Wilson.

NY Giants - current projected picks at 5 and 6. Thats a high price tag...we may need to give up some picks in exchange. I personally love picks 5 and 6. Giants may be in desperation mode to save jobs...a big move may be necessary.

PHI - current projected picks at 10 and 14. That value seems right if they wanted to make the splash and get to #1. We may get an additional 3rd or something ontop as icing. PHI cant make up their minds if they love their QB situation or hate it. Its a week to week thing lol. Extra pick in 10-14 range might be a good spot for a quality QB pick like Pickett, Corral, Ridder or Howell.

QB needy teams include: HOU 2, NYG 5/6, ATL 7, CAR 8, PHI 10/14, NO 12, PIT 15, DEN 16, WFT 17, CLE? 18, MIA 21 and MAAYYYYBE MIN? 11.

1b #24 from LA. Keep getting injured Staff!
Value here looks to be WR and LB.

WR - Jameson Williams, Garret Wilson, Treylon Burks are my top 3. You have some smaller frame guys that will have first round grades like Johan Dotson, Chris Olave and David Bell.

LB - Nakobe Dean, Devin Lloyd, Kingsley Enagbare, and David Ojabo could all make sense here.

2a #33

Im taking the BPA of whatever WR/LB we dont take with the Rams pick. That would include doubling up on WR if one falls here. 2nd tier LBs you could include are Christian Harris and Nick Bonitto who is asked to do a lot of coverage.

3rd rd im targeting Safety. First and foremost an upgrade over Harris. We do have an additional pick in rd 3 which could be anything from RG, CB or LB.

 

[mhughes0021]

Devin Lloyd is my favorite player in this draft. I still like wr with the rams pick. But if treylon Burks and Jameson Williams are gone im picking devin Lloyd with the rams pick and going David bell or Johan Dotson in rd2.

 

[tomdalton22]

Devin Lloyd is my favorite player in this draft. I still like wr with the rams pick. But if treylon Burks and Jameson Williams are gone im picking devin Lloyd with the rams pick and going David bell or Johan Dotson in rd2.

In mocks, I've seen Lloyd go as early as 6 to the Giants and as late as early 2nd round. Of course, these are early mock drafts.

 

[detroit1811]

Devin Lloyd is my favorite player in this draft. I still like wr with the rams pick. But if treylon Burks and Jameson Williams are gone im picking devin Lloyd with the rams pick and going David bell or Johan Dotson in rd2.

I like Lloyd a lot as well. I think Hutchinson, Lloyd, and best WR who falls is the ideal scenario Seems like Lloyd is a Darius Leonard clone to me.

 

[detroit1811]

I know its way early, but the Giants, Eagles, and Jets all desperately lack an elite pass rusher. Where they are currently sitting it is highly unlikely Thibodeaux or Hutchinson falls. Maybe they are willing to trade up? Obviously that is wishful thinking, but where things currently stand the Jets would have to give up #4 and #7 for #1 and #65. The Giants would have to give up #5 and #6 for #1 and #65. The Eagles would have to give up #10, #11, and #40 for #1. That is all according to the trade value chart.

I think the Eagles trade would put us out of range for a few of the top prospets, but the extra 2nd while keeping our 3rd would be very tempting. At 10 and 11 you are probably looking at Jameson Williams/Kenny Pickett(or other top QB)/Garrett Wilson/Devin Lloyd. Where as with the Giants or Jets pick you are looking at Kyle Hamilton/George Karlaftis/Derek Stingley.

So early question is, if any of those trade were available, what would be the preference?

Giants/Jets Trade we come away with Kyle Hamilton and George Karlaftis and best WR available at #33, while also giving up our #65 pick.

Eagles trade we come away with Jameson/Wilson and Devin Lloyd while picking up another 2nd and keeping our 3rd.

With the remaining picks maybe we get Ojabo, Willis/Ridder, Jacquan Brisker. Still have our 3rd and the comp 3rd left.

I think I would lean towards the Eagles deal.

 

[tomdalton22]

I know its way early, but the Giants, Eagles, and Jets all desperately lack an elite pass rusher. Where they are currently sitting it is highly unlikely Thibodeaux or Hutchinson falls. Maybe they are willing to trade up? Obviously that is wishful thinking, but where things currently stand the Jets would have to give up #4 and #7 for #1 and #65. The Giants would have to give up #5 and #6 for #1 and #65. The Eagles would have to give up #10, #11, and #40 for #1. That is all according to the trade value chart.

I think the Eagles trade would put us out of range for a few of the top prospets, but the extra 2nd while keeping our 3rd would be very tempting. At 10 and 11 you are probably looking at Jameson Williams/Kenny Pickett(or other top QB)/Garrett Wilson/Devin Lloyd. Where as with the Giants or Jets pick you are looking at Kyle Hamilton/George Karlaftis/Derek Stingley.

So early question is, if any of those trade were available, what would be the preference?

Giants/Jets Trade we come away with Kyle Hamilton and George Karlaftis and best WR available at #33, while also giving up our #65 pick.

Eagles trade we come away with Jameson/Wilson and Devin Lloyd while picking up another 2nd and keeping our 3rd.

With the remaining picks maybe we get Ojabo, Willis/Ridder, Jacquan Brisker. Still have our 3rd and the comp 3rd left.

I think I would lean towards the Eagles deal.

I think you are right...it is wishful thinking. Teams don't give up hauls like that for a defensive player...they do for a QB though.

 

[zyxt9]

I'm still onboard with getting Hutch #1, but adding picks when the team is this depleted makes sense. Still, I'm not sure any of those picks have the potential to lead the locker room the way Hutch has shown. That leadership quality is why I equate him to Yzerman... and I'm not sure how much value that equates to in terms of additional picks / players.

Obviously Yzerman did not win alone, nor would Hutch... but the leadership and respect from the team was undeniable. IMO, even the 2002 team with all those stars needed Yzerman's leadership to keep things focused and not having anyone become too enamored with the star power that they allowed less talented teams to beat them in the playoffs.

I see Hutch's greatest strength being his leadership. His passion and energy help motivate the team. I also believe he is exactly the type of player DC wants leading his defense. These intangibles are why I do not see the Lions trading out of #1 even if offered all of those additional picks.

 

[mhughes0021]

I think you are right...it is wishful thinking. Teams don't give up hauls like that for a defensive player...they do for a QB though.

Mainstream media is having a positive effect on the Lions draft strategy. "Big boards" have alot of the qbs not ranked until the 20s. With 5 -7 teams looking for a qb...if a guy like Pickett becomes a clear#1 pick with no one near him the giants or the eagles might pull the trigger.

Or you get a big haul from New Orleans or Pitt that would include future early rounds picks.

 

[detroit1811]

I think you are right...it is wishful thinking. Teams don't give up hauls like that for a defensive player...they do for a QB though.

Edge rushers can also command a premium. Now teams don't usually overpay for edge rushers like they would to get a QB. Still trades at the top of the draft definitely don't happen a lot, which is why it is a major long shot. Jut wanted to note that the Giants, Eagles, and Jets all desperately need a good pass rusher and all have the ammo to move

 

[grandy]

If neither Hutch nor Thibs emerges as the clear #1 and a team doesn?t fall in love with one over the other, I don?t see anyone trading up to 1 when they can trade up to 2 or 3 for slightly less capital. QB is the wild card right now, still have a long way to go and a lot can change by April.

Lions need the hype machine in overdrive to have any chance of trading out IMO.

 

[detroit1811]

If neither Hutch nor Thibs emerges as the clear #1 and a team doesn?t fall in love with one over the other, I don?t see anyone trading up to 1 when they can trade up to 2 or 3 for slightly less capital. QB is the wild card right now, still have a long way to go and a lot can change by April.

Lions need the hype machine in overdrive to have any chance of trading out IMO.

I think they are both different enough players that some teams may fall in love with Thibodeauxs potential or Hutchinson's leadership and drive.

I don't see a QB rising past those two guys. IMO, Hutchinson and Thibodeaux are a step above everyone else in this draft, especially when you factor in the importance of the position they play. That is why the pick may be valuable.

On the flip side of that is if that is the case and the Lions obviously need a pass rusher, then why would thye pass up that opportunity? The only real answer is the fact that they need so much more then just a pass rusher.

At this point in the draft process, I could go either way as I view Hutchinson as a culture changing type of player.

 

[zyxt9]

...At this point in the draft process, I could go either way as I view Hutchinson as a culture changing type of player.

Exactly. And this is why the Lions absolutely do not want to lose the chance to take him #1 overall.

QBs "should" be taken #1...except that the best way to neutralize a great QB is with intense pressure using a normal front and max coverage. Therefore a player that can provide that capability is a legit #1 pick also (granted it helps if the DL has multiple players like that, but that is all the more reason to take one when they are available).

Hutch is an ideal fit for a team lead by DC, IMO. I'd much rather have Hutch than a Suh 2.0 who does stupid shit (EDIT: not trying to imply that Tibs is Suh 2.0...was just bringing up how Suh was a great pass rush guy but way too fucking stupid to make him worth having on the team). I think Hutch has learned from prior mistakes. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't remember him getting a stupid penalty all year and even with his very quick burst I do not recall him getting an offside penalty against him. You know QBs tried to get him to jump, but he didn't and still continually was quicker than most OL at the snap.

 

[mhughes0021]

Another point to remember is HOU is sitting at #2 and almost 100% going QB unless they make a trade for one. So if a team does like a clear cut #1 QB and know they have to get above HOU then there could be a market to trade down. Again...Pickett seems like he could be the only guy in that conversation. I dont think any team will view him as that type of guy....yet. But one can hope!

 

[detroit1811]

Another point to remember is HOU is sitting at #2 and almost 100% going QB unless they make a trade for one. So if a team does like a clear cut #1 QB and know they have to get above HOU then there could be a market to trade down. Again...Pickett seems like he could be the only guy in that conversation. I dont think any team will view him as that type of guy....yet. But one can hope!

Houston may not deem a QB worthy of that high a pick. Also I think with the Eagles draft picks, they could potentially flip Hurts and a some picks to Houston for Watson. Hurts has been decent this year and could be a worthy QB to give a shot, especially with two super cheap years on his contract. I think there can be some major dominoes to fall at QB this off-season before the draft even happens with Watson, Wilson, and Rodgers.

My early projections are Watson to Philly with Hurts to Houston. Rodgers to Denver and Russell Wilson to the Panthers.

 

[mhughes0021]

Houston may not deem a QB worthy of that high a pick. Also I think with the Eagles draft picks, they could potentially flip Hurts and a some picks to Houston for Watson. Hurts has been decent this year and could be a worthy QB to give a shot, especially with two super cheap years on his contract. I think there can be some major dominoes to fall at QB this off-season before the draft even happens with Watson, Wilson, and Rodgers.

My early projections are Watson to Philly with Hurts to Houston. Rodgers to Denver and Russell Wilson to the Panthers.

I like Watson to Philly and Rodgers to Denver. Does Russell Wilson go to GB?!

 

[Mitchrapp]

Honestly I don't see any QB that's top 10 worthy.

 

[tomdalton22]

I like Watson to Philly and Rodgers to Denver. Does Russell Wilson go to GB?!

I don't think Wilson goes anywhere. He's not a free agent. I think Seattle fires Pete Carol and keeps Wilson

 

[detroit1811]

I like Watson to Philly and Rodgers to Denver. Does Russell Wilson go to GB?!

Green Bay is pretty cap strapped and you can always make room, but not sure they would for Wilson as that is a clear sign they have given up on Love. This division has a chance to be pretty poor next year if Rodgers leaves.

 

[detroit1811]

Honestly I don't see any QB that's top 10 worthy.

I personally would not take that plunge, but I think Pickett and maybe even Corral have a very real shot at it with a lot of teams needing a QB.

 

[mhughes0021]

Hate to break out to you... but we could win 2 more games this year lol. Need chi and giants to win games so we don't end up picking 6th. Picking 4th we probably don't get the DE we want unless teams like jax and nyj go OT. Strategy changes drastically. Maybe a kyle Hamilton enters the conversation. All other top 5 projections are OL or stingley cb.