5th Starter

[Rebbiv]

There are 162-games in a season. In a 5 man rotation, that averages to 32.4 GS per starter. Yet, the statistical analysis does not even come close to that.

Last 3 year averages per MLB team:

31 GS = 2.0

28 GS = 2.7

25 GS = 3.2

19 GS = 4.3

There are only two MLB teams (CIN & TBR) that averaged 5 starters with at least 19 GS over the last 3 seasons. DET is right at average at 4.3.

Additionally, a team only averages 2 starters with 31 GS. SFG, with the most, averaged 3.3. DET and LAD averaged 3. But teams like WSN and CLE only averaged 1 over the last 3 years.

People tend to think of 5 starters all being equal. But they are not. Barring injuries, certainly your top 2-3 starters should see 31 GS. But after that, it is a luxury to have your 5th starter have more than 18 GS. Odds are you are going to have 6, 7 and 8 starters with 2 GS, 3 GS, 5 GS or even 7 GS.

Stop worrying about who the 5th starter will be. Given good health, DET's top 4 starters will certainly average 31 GS between them.

 

[Thumb]

I have never worried about who the 5th starter will be for the season, only who will make it when we break ST camp.

I did not want it to be Turner, not because I didn't think he could get the job done, but because I think it's not time for him in the majors, I want him to develop properly.

I wanted Below because of his age and his MLB experience, but seems he pitches very well one inning, then is terrible the next.

Many people thought Oliver was the favorite, but I always had him behind Below, and Smyley. Looks right now like Smyley is probably (at this time) the best to take north out of the bunch.

But we won 11 games at the 5th starter spot last year, and still won 95 overall. The 5th spot does not concern me nearly as much as the idea of them bringing dead weight like Inge north does.

 

[Mitchrapp]

5th starter will be Penny like. Just hope the offense is clicking during those starts.

 

[zonietigerfan]

Smyley has looked the best to me this spring. The game I saw him pitch he was hitting the corners pretty well and he looked confident. Ergo, I see him coming north & maybe Below too (as an extra lefty in the BP). Oliver needs to go to Toledo & Turner is at least a year away. However, if it's between Marte & Below I'd go Marte.

 

[spockmaster]

Oliver was optioned to Toledo today. The candidates are down to Smyly and Below.

 

[tonyballs]

Oliver was optioned to Toledo today. The candidates are down to Smyly and Below.

Thank God for our first four...........

 

[jdeb]

I can see us adding a starter. If I were DD, I would call Javier Vazquez's agent

 

[motownwebguy]

I can see us adding a starter. If I were DD, I would call Javier Vazquez's agent

When you look a bit closer, not many veteran starters in MLB have done better than Smyly this spring. Where would you rate Smyly's spring performance amongst 150 MLB starters?

I think Tigers fans need to relax and welcome young Drew aboard. I fully expect him to have the most starts of any of our prospects. He may get caught-up in a numbers game in April and start in Toledo next week. But in my opinion, he deserves to be awarded and go north with the rest of the roster and be at Comerica Park on Opening Day.

 

[Thumb]

I have no problem with 5th starter by committee, let Smyley/Below do it at first, then bring guys up as they get hot/show promise etc.

I don't think we really need to make a trade, considering we would likely only get someone marginally better than our in-house talent anyways.

 

[motownwebguy]

I have no problem with 5th starter by committee, let Smyley/Below do it at first, then bring guys up as they get hot/show promise etc.

I don't think we really need to make a trade, considering we would likely only get someone marginally better than our in-house talent anyways.

I'm not sure some of the names mentioned are better than in-house. There's also an issue regarding adding more team salary - which Dombrowski is trying to avoid right now.

Besides, all these prospect arms need to be tested in 2012. Unless the teams falters (unlikely), then I don't expect a trade for a different #5.

 

[lonesometiger]

The real problem I've got with the 5th starter, is none seem to be carring a game into a 5th or 6th inning !! Keeping the Bull pen alive is a key IMO. for the other starters.

 

[jdeb]

So what do you do if a veteran starter goes a stint on the DL? We need as much depth as we can get plus the young guys could use some work down on the farm. Smyley has done well this spring but he is only in his second year as a pro. Oswalt may revisit the idea joining us as well.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Did you hear, 49 year old Jamie Moyer makes the Rockies rotation. Damn, he's actually starting the 2nd game of the season for Colorado. I know he's 33 wins from 300 and he's almost 50 but I hope he keeps going and gets to the milestone.

 

[turok]

A bit off-thread, but Yankees fans are flipping out over Pineda's horrid pitching in ST, he just got torched in his last game, giving up 6 runs on 7 hits in just 2 2/3 IP, then complained of shoulder pain during his post-game interview...lol. Joel is now skedded for an MRI scan. The Yankees, however, like the Tigers, have 4 starters who could/should pitch well or @ least adequately during this coming season, and Ivan Nova should be able to take over the 5th spot, should Pineda be sent to the minors, and/or needs some type of therapy or medical treatment, or worse, surgery on his shoulder, and wind up on the 60-day DL.

Personally, I think that there is a halfway-decent chance of seeing a rare "change of the guard" in the ALED, with the Rays and Jays going 1-2 in the division, with the Yanks and BoSox being shut out of the postseason, and either the Rangers or Angels clinching the other WC spot...although it would likely only happen for just one season, b/c both teams obviously can afford to paper over their previous mistakes w/ FA cash.

 

[kalinecountry]

Yankees Pineda was placed on the 15 day DL.

The fans/posters all want GM Cashman's head on a stick for the trade that included Jesus Montero.

 

[jdeb]

Yeah, that one smelled a little bad. I could not believe they traded Montero. He is going to be a heck of a hitter, probably a top ten within a couple of years if not this one. The guy can flat out rake.

 

[Mitchrapp]

A bit off-thread, but Yankees fans are flipping out over Pineda's horrid pitching in ST, he just got torched in his last game, giving up 6 runs on 7 hits in just 2 2/3 IP, then complained of shoulder pain during his post-game interview...lol. Joel is now skedded for an MRI scan. The Yankees, however, like the Tigers, have 4 starters who could/should pitch well or @ least adequately during this coming season, and Ivan Nova should be able to take over the 5th spot, should Pineda be sent to the minors, and/or needs some type of therapy or medical treatment, or worse, surgery on his shoulder, and wind up on the 60-day DL.

Personally, I think that there is a halfway-decent chance of seeing a rare "change of the guard" in the ALED, with the Rays and Jays going 1-2 in the division, with the Yanks and BoSox being shut out of the postseason, and either the Rangers or Angels clinching the other WC spot...although it would likely only happen for just one season, b/c both teams obviously can afford to paper over their previous mistakes w/ FA cash.

When the Jays make it to post-season, hit me on the head because I'll be over here lmao.

 

[kingofdetroit57]

How long until the final roster decisions are made? I'd assume they'd want it set at least a few days before opening day so the guys on the bubble who end up making it can focus on the season ahead.

 

[Mitchrapp]

How long until the final roster decisions are made? I'd assume they'd want it set at least a few days before opening day so the guys on the bubble who end up making it can focus on the season ahead.

Sunday I believe. At least in the past its been. But since the season starts on a Thursday I'm not sure.

 

[kalinecountry]

I am not confident about how this will play out. With options available to Dirks and Worth,
Get the feeling that inge and clete will make it, for reasons other than ST and lack of production there in lies the frustration. Cringe's 6M reasons might be why.
Hopefully that will get resolved for good by April 30.

The 5th starter, wouldn't surprise me as a revolving door of whoever is pitching better, and tanking to be back and forth, That is Below, Smyly, Oliver, surprise name too maybe, and then they try Turner mid year, now if DD pulls something off for a bigger name/quality starter, then scratch this.

imo, it is splitting hairs with Villarreal and Marte, each brings some good things.

Having Inge around is what is causing the anxiety and tension headache.