#6 in coaches poll

[johnny2x2x]

Guess we're still moving up despite bad play in the fourth quarter.

 

[Sbee]

It's not like notre dame or Bama looked that good yesterday

 

[everyoneneedsasmil]

Things are still shaping up well if we run the table.

One of ND or FSU is dropping next week. Even if ND wins, they'll have to beat AZ state and USC to stay undefeated.

The SEC is going to grind it's own teams. Bama and Auburn still play, the loser is out of the running with two losses. The Miss. teams both still play each other and one of Bama or Auburn. If either Miss. team runs the table, that bumps Bama/Auburn and gives the other Miss. team a loss (which they may not be able to make up since they'll no longer be ale to play in the SEC championship).

Baylor has already shown they can't defend, so I'm betting they'll lose at least once along the way (probably Oklahoma).

At that point we could be ranked #4, and putting up a few impressive wins (OSU and B1G championship) could keep anyone else from jumping past us.

 

[Spartan23MSU]

Baylor had a miracle comeback and ND almost blew it, nearly a #4. We arent playing like a #6 though, there are a lot of loose circuits on this team.

 

[Sbee]

there's a lot of time left but I get the feeling that whoever is 2nd in the SEC west will make it. the one thing that could throw everything for a loop would be the SEC east team winning the title game

 

[Spartanmack]

Running the table isn't looking as easy as it once did. If Barrett stays healthy, he'll have 8 games under his belt by the time we play them and he's already playing pretty well. If we puke all over ourselves in the second half like we have been, it could be ugly.

 

[Sbee]

Running the table isn't looking as easy as it once did. If Barrett stays healthy, he'll have 8 games under his belt by the time we play them and he's already playing pretty well. If we puke all over ourselves in the second half like we have been, it could be ugly.

I'm not sure anyone considered running the table to be something easy, at least I didn't. I put our chances around 20% after the oregon game, I think it's more like 30% now.

 

[Spartanmack]

Those estimates are misleading. If you have a 30% chance of winning 6 games in a row then on average you have an 82% chance of winning each game. Of course the probability varies by opponent and if you say the OSU game is 50/50 then the average for the other 5 is over 88% each. So saying you have a 30% chance of running the table is basically saying it doesn't get much easier than that. And while 50/50 is probably reasonable for the OSU game, based on recent performance I don't think the probability of beating Indiana in Bloomington is 88% and taking any estimates over 88% is entering fantasy land - even for the game against michigan.

 

[jwlcosu]

Spartans have to be 60/40 to beat Buckeyes with game being:

A) In EL
B) Under the lights

Something said earlier is true. Since VA Tech game, Barrett has been on fire. His ability to perform in a big road game, however, is unknown. Edge MSU.

 

[Sbee]

Those estimates are misleading. If you have a 30% chance of winning 6 games in a row then on average you have an 82% chance of winning each game. Of course the probability varies by opponent and if you say the OSU game is 50/50 then the average for the other 5 is over 88% each. So saying you have a 30% chance of running the table is basically saying it doesn't get much easier than that. And while 50/50 is probably reasonable for the OSU game, based on recent performance I don't think the probability of beating Indiana in Bloomington is 88% and taking any estimates over 88% is entering fantasy land - even for the game against michigan.

I'd say 60 osu and 65 to 70 vs Wisconsin or Nebraska. All the others are very high, we'll be double digit favorites in all others. Those were rough numbers off the top of my head, but far from easy as you said.

 

[johnny2x2x]

I'd say 60 osu and 65 to 70 vs Wisconsin or Nebraska. All the others are very high, we'll be double digit favorites in all others. Those were rough numbers off the top of my head, but far from easy as you said.

You multiply the probablilites to get the final probability.

@IU 99%
vs UM 90%
vs OSU 65%
@ MD 75%
vs Rutgers 95%
@ PSU 80%
BTG 70%

= .99 x .90 x .65 x .75 x .95 x .80 x .70 = .23 or 23%.

I give us about a 1/4 chance of going 12-1, if we do go 12-1 I give us about an 80% chance of making the playoffs. So overall, I give us a little better than 18% chance of making the playoffs, or about 1 in 5.

The team has yet to play 4 quarters of great football.

 

[tomdalton22]

I think MSU has about a 5% chance of getting into the top 4 playoff.

 

[Sbee]

I think MSU has about a 5% chance of getting into the top 4 playoff.

I just saw odds from Vegas where we were the favorite to make the title game, 13/2 odds, fsu 7/1, miss state 7/1, bama 8/1, oklahoma 9/1, nd 10/1, osu 10/1

 

[tomdalton22]

I just saw odds from Vegas where we were the favorite to make the title game, 13/2 odds, fsu 7/1, miss state 7/1, bama 8/1, oklahoma 9/1, nd 10/1, osu 10/1

because they have the easiest path to finish the season with only one loss. My reasoning is I think there will be 2 SEC teams with a better resume and probably at least 2 other teams that will also have better resumes than MSU. I really don't understand why MSU is ranked so highly...the only quality win they have is a 5 point win at home vs. Nebraska.

 

[LuciousGameWinner]

Who has Alabama beat? Who has notre dame beat? Who has Florida state beat? They're all ranked ahead of us. If we beat osu and we beat someone in the title game we'll have a good enough resume to get in.

 

[Sbee]

because they have the easiest path to finish the season with only one loss. My reasoning is I think there will be 2 SEC teams with a better resume and probably at least 2 other teams that will also have better resumes than MSU. I really don't understand why MSU is ranked so highly...the only quality win they have is a 5 point win at home vs. Nebraska.

Yes, we have the easiest path but still play OSU and either Nebraska or Wisconsin assuming we make the title game. I'm sure if they had favorites listed by conference it would be SEC #2 ahead of big ten champ.

though as far as quality wins, how many teams have multiple quality wins? there are a handful but we'll have other opportunites to beat good competition. FSU beat a 2 loss Clemson team at home in OT, I don't think that's a better win than us over Nebraska, I'd venture to say they only have one quality win

 

[everyoneneedsasmil]

MSU was ranked high to start the season and the pollsters don't like to move teams around too much or else their initial rankings look stupid. There is human bias in the polls, and they aren't going to drop a highly ranked team if that team isn't losing.

I think MSU wouldn't make the playoffs over a 1-loss SEC team or probably even Oregon. But, FSU has just as bad of a schedule as we do. ND at one loss (to FSU or USC probably) doesn't have a great schedule. The Big 12 teams don't play any defense and the likely best team (Oklahoma) already has a loss. At this point, we're hoping the SEC starts knocking each other out with 2 or more losses. There is a real chance that the Pac 12, Big 12, and Big 10 are all fighting for just one playoff spot as the others will be filled by FSU/ND, and two SEC teams.

 

[tomdalton22]

Who has Alabama beat? Who has notre dame beat? Who has Florida state beat? They're all ranked ahead of us. If we beat osu and we beat someone in the title game we'll have a good enough resume to get in.

Bama has a similar resume. Beat FL and Arkansas and lost on the road. FSU beat OK State and has not lost. ND hasn't lost and beat Staford.

IF they beat OSU then play in the BIG 10 championship game vs. a team ranked in the low 20's they could easily still be on the outside looking in. The BIG10 is that bad this year!

 

[tomdalton22]

I think MSU wouldn't make the playoffs over a 1-loss SEC team or probably even Oregon. But, FSU has just as bad of a schedule as we do. ND at one loss (to FSU or USC probably) doesn't have a great schedule. The Big 12 teams don't play any defense and the likely best team (Oklahoma) already has a loss. At this point, we're hoping the SEC starts knocking each other out with 2 or more losses. There is a real chance that the Pac 12, Big 12, and Big 10 are all fighting for just one playoff spot as the others will be filled by FSU/ND, and two SEC teams.

This is all true. I just don't think a one loss MSU team gets in over a one loss BIG12, PAC10 or FSU champion. Those three are pretty likely along with the possibility of 2 one loss SEC teams. That puts MSU 5th or 6th in the pecking order.

 

[Spartanmack]

You multiply the probablilites to get the final probability.

@IU 99%
vs UM 90%
vs OSU 65%
@ MD 75%
vs Rutgers 95%
@ PSU 80%
BTG 70%

= .99 x .90 x .65 x .75 x .95 x .80 x .70 = .23 or 23%.

I give us about a 1/4 chance of going 12-1, if we do go 12-1 I give us about an 80% chance of making the playoffs. So overall, I give us a little better than 18% chance of making the playoffs, or about 1 in 5.

The team has yet to play 4 quarters of great football.

I only did the math for running the table and making it to the B1G champ game. Losing Sudfeld definitely hurts but I think .99 is way to high for IU - that Iowa game looks bad but they had a couple pick 6s in the first half that were the difference in the game. That game next week could be a shoot out. I know they lost to Md but I would actually put the odds of beating IU lower than Md.