AL Cy Young

[tomdalton22]

With none of the starters really separating themselves I think the leader right now is Zach Britton. He is having a remarkable season so far.

37-37 saves
0.82 Whip
0.54 ERA

 

[SpartyNash]

With none of the starters really separating themselves I think the leader right now is Zach Britton. He is having a remarkable season so far.

37-37 saves
0.82 Whip
0.54 ERA

I agree. I love what I've seen from Fulmer, but gun to my head I'm picking Britton over him, even Eric Gagne didn't have an ERA or WHIP that low in 2003 when he won.

 

[Rebbiv]

I personally cannot support a reliever for the Cy Young. I would imagine J.A. Happ (16-3) or Rick Porcello (16-3) are the front runners, with Britton getting votes at this moment. At this point, a bad outing by Happ or Porcello would not mean the doom that it would to Britton just on sample size alone.

 

[tomdalton22]

I personally cannot support a reliever for the Cy Young. I would imagine J.A. Happ (16-3) or Rick Porcello (16-3) are the front runners, with Britton getting votes at this moment. At this point, a bad outing by Happ or Porcello would not mean the doom that it would to Britton just on sample size alone.

Typically, I don't support a reliever for the Cy Young award either, but none of the starters are separating themselves. Britton is having an all time great season for a closer.

Of course, there is a lot of baseball to be played.

 

[Rebbiv]

Typically, I don't support a reliever for the Cy Young award either, but none of the starters are separating themselves. Britton is having an all time great season for a closer.

Of course, there is a lot of baseball to be played.

16-3 record with a sub 3.00 ERA or even a low 3.00 ERA is pretty darn good for a starter.

 

[tomdalton22]

16-3 record with a sub 3.00 ERA or even a low 3.00 ERA is pretty darn good for a starter.

good...but there are about 7 or 8 starters with somewhat similar stats.

0.54 ERA
0.82 WHIP
37-37 saves

those are all time great stats (if he continues)

Maybe one of the starters will do something special down the stretch that will separate himself...hopefully it's Fulmer or JV!

 

[gotime909]

I can't keep up. I thought wins and ERA were NOT a good measure?

Agree on Britton. He's having an amazing season. I have a feeling that one of the starters(Happ, Porcello, Sale, Kluber, Fulmer...etc) will go on a run and take it though.

 

[Rebbiv]

good...but there are about 7 or 8 starters with somewhat similar stats.

0.54 ERA
0.82 WHIP
37-37 saves

those are all time great stats (if he continues)

Maybe one of the starters will do something special down the stretch that will separate himself...hopefully it's Fulmer or JV!

There are just 3 starters with at least 15 wins

Happ (23 GS) 16-3 2.96 ERA 1.14 WHIP 70% QS 124 K
Porcello (24 GS) 16-3 3.30 ERA 1.05 WHIP 71% QS 129 K
Tillman (25 GS) 15-4 3.46 ERA 1.21 WHIP 60% QS 126 K

Where are the others that are close?

And I already stated Britton will be getting votes. I just believe the voters are going to lean toward the starters, as would I. I am not discounting what Britton is doing. But you are certainly discounting 16-3 starters.

 

[Rebbiv]

I can't keep up. I thought wins and ERA were NOT a good measure?

Agree on Britton. He's having an amazing season. I have a feeling that one of the starters(Happ, Porcello, Sale, Kluber, Fulmer...etc) will go on a run and take it though.

It is about the voters and the numbers they look at.

FYI... Happ and Porcello lead all AL starters with Run Support (6.8 RS/G), then there is a huge drop to 6.0 RS/G with 4 starters tied, for what it is worth.

 

[tomdalton22]

There are just 3 starters with at least 15 wins

Happ (23 GS) 16-3 2.96 ERA 1.14 WHIP 70% QS 124 K
Porcello (24 GS) 16-3 3.30 ERA 1.05 WHIP 71% QS 129 K
Tillman (25 GS) 15-4 3.46 ERA 1.21 WHIP 60% QS 126 K

Where are the others that are close?

And I already stated Britton will be getting votes. I just believe the voters are going to lean toward the starters, as would I. I am not discounting what Britton is doing. But you are certainly discounting 16-3 starters.

I'm talking statistically, not wins.

There are 9 pitchers with a better ERA than Porcello and 6 better than Happ
There are 9 pitchers with a better WHIP than Happ and 6 better than Porcello
There are 9 pitchers with a better WAR than Porcello and 10 better than Happ (I know you don't like WAR)
There are 9 pitchers with a higher % of QS than Happ and 5 better than Porcello

 

[Rebbiv]

I'm talking statistically, not wins.

There are 9 pitchers with a better ERA than Porcello and 6 better than Happ
There are 9 pitchers with a better WHIP than Happ and 6 better than Porcello
There are 9 pitchers with a better WAR than Porcello and 10 better than Happ (I know you don't like WAR)
There are 9 pitchers with a higher % of QS than Happ and 5 better than Porcello

The voters take everything into account, but it starts with wins and winning percentage. I am looking at it from a voter point of view.

And yes, WAR is a horrible stat if you don't know how it is determined and the issues of how it is computed. For instance, one of the components is Defensive Runs Saved (both for pitchers and position players). One of Defensive Runs Saved component is Home Run Saving Catches. How does a LF in BOS get a HR Saving Catch with the Green Monster behind him? Doesn't Porcello play in BOS and isn't his WAR then influenced by this? And if so, by what degree?

 

[tomdalton22]

The voters take everything into account, but it starts with wins and winning percentage. I am looking at it from a voter point of view.

And yes, WAR is a horrible stat if you don't know how it is determined and the issues of how it is computed. For instance, one of the components is Defensive Runs Saved (both for pitchers and position players). One of Defensive Runs Saved component is Home Run Saving Catches. How does a LF in BOS get a HR Saving Catch with the Green Monster behind him? Doesn't Porcello play in BOS and isn't his WAR then influenced by this? And if so, by what degree?

If WAR is a bad stat then Wins is an even worse one.

BTW...I do agree that WAR isn't a good stat.

 

[Rebbiv]

If WAR is a bad stat then Wins is an even worse one.

BTW...I do agree that WAR isn't a good stat.

You get no argument from me on Wins. I am already on record and it is all about the run support.

 

[byco42]

Bedrosian, Vuckovitch, Hoyt, Lyle ... examples of pitchers who won a Cy Young for no reason whatsoever. I'd toss in Eckersley and Hernandez, too. I think the award should be limited to starters anyway.

Ryan, Sutton, Tiant, Marichal, Mussina, Niekro (Phil) ... pretty good list of pitchers who never won a Cy Young.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Bedrosian, Vuckovitch, Hoyt, Lyle ... examples of pitchers who won a Cy Young for no reason whatsoever. I'd toss in Eckersley and Hernandez, too. I think the award should be limited to starters anyway.

Ryan, Sutton, Tiant, Marichal, Mussina, Niekro (Phil) ... pretty good list of pitchers who never won a Cy Young.

I'm okay with RP winning a Cy Young since they don't really have an award. Now they have something.. sorta. But back in the 80's, the Rolaids relief man of the year, horrible award. Based on points is always a bad idea...

 

[byco42]

I'm okay with RP winning a Cy Young since they don't really have an award. Now they have something.. sorta. But back in the 80's, the Rolaids relief man of the year, horrible award. Based on points is always a bad idea...

Start a new one. The Mariano Riviera award. The Sandman Award. Something.

 

[Rebbiv]

Mike Marshall, 15-12 21 Saves, was the first reliever to win the Cy Young in 1974 for LAD. He pitched in 106 games and threw 208.3 Innings, all as a reliever. 3 LAD pitchers finished in the top 4 in the Cy Young voting. 4 of the 11 Cy Young finalists had a better WAR than Marshall. 4 had a better WHIP. 3 had a better ERA. Phil Neikro had Marshall beat in all these statistical areas. Messersmith (LAD) or Niekro easily could make a case to have won the award that year. ATL didn't make the playoffs, so Niekro wasn't in. As stated, LAD had 3 in the top 4, all taking votes.

Sparky Lyle, 13-5 26 Saves, was next, in 1977 with NYY and he threw 137.0 Innings. His 3.7 WAR was worst of the 9 Cy Young finalists. 5 had a better WHIP. He lead ERA. Ryan or Palmer could have easily won the award, but neither of their teams made the playoffs.

Generally speaking, for a reliever to win the Cy Young, his team has to make the playoffs, the league is void of 20-game winners, and/or the Starter W% is not that good.

 

[tomdalton22]

Here is a recent article that KC posted that says JV should win.

http://www.blessyouboys.com/2016/9/28/13085856/justin-verlander-al-cy-young-2016-detroit-tigers

 

[kalinecountry]

Justin Verlander 1st in AL 246 strikeouts 1.002 WHIP .263 OBP against,
OPS against .634 3rd, 3.10 ERA 3rd, 134 ERA+ 6th, WAR 6.3 2nd.

There hasn?t been a better starting pitcher in the second half of the season.

Since the All-Star break, Verlander is 8-2 with a 2.00 ERA and a 0.852 WHIP. He?s averaged 11 strikeouts per 9 innings with a 5.5-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Opponents in his last 17 starts are hitting .181 against him with a .238 on-base percentage and a .565 OPS.

 

[gotime909]

I can't imagine JV not winning it.