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Are Strikeouts a "glamour" stat?

tycobb420

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 5, 2011
Messages
2,782
This is an old argument from the ESPN General board. Quite a few people argued that Ks were nothing more than glamour stats. I disagree for a number of reasons, but thought I'd see what y'all think.
 
The people who would insist that are probably the same damn people who insist strikeouts for a batter don't matter any more than any other out.

Strikeouts leave very little margin for error, outside of a catcher not holding on the the 3rd and allowing a runner to steal first.
 
anywhere you can get an out by the ball not being hit, has to beat anyone that does. well of course a groundball double play doesn't count. lol
 
K's are big for a pitcher. Some situations need a strikeout and a lot of pitchers can't deliver. However strikeouts are not everything for a pitcher. Greg Maddux was never a strikeout pitcher, however its easier to just get more Ks then be Maddux.
 
The less you put the ball in play the less chances your defense has to fuck something up....especially our defense. Ks are huge...I havenet done the research but im sure there has to be some correlation between the top strikout guys and a lower ERA. You put less people on base the less chance they have to score runs...plain and simple.
 
mhughes0021 said:
The less you put the ball in play the less chances your defense has to fuck something up....especially our defense. Ks are huge...I havenet done the research but im sure there has to be some correlation between the top strikout guys and a lower ERA. You put less people on base the less chance they have to score runs...plain and simple.

All else being equal, a higher K pitcher will have a lower ERA.
 
The more a pitcher throws K's the more pitches he generally throws. Thus, pitch count becomes an issue. Don't know about "glamour" but it sure fires the crowd up!!
 
[color=#551A8B said:
Rich what? Richmond![/color]]K's are big for a pitcher. Some situations need a strikeout and a lot of pitchers can't deliver. However strikeouts are not everything for a pitcher. Greg Maddux was never a strikeout pitcher, however its easier to just get more Ks then be Maddux.


go back and look at Maddux's early years. He most definitely could strike out batters, getting more than 190/season on a number of occasions. Like other great pitchers, when the fastball goes away you need to learn how to pitch, and that is exactly what Greg did.
 
First, for very rule there are exceptions.

Strikeouts assigned to players (pitchers or hitters) are informative as to skill-sets. For a pitcher, they matter most and indicate the type of "stuff" they have. Their "stuff" can indicate whether a batter has a better chance of squaring the bat on the ball.

For a hitter, they indicate more eye-hand coordination and pitch recognition, than plate discipline. Most, not all, high walk types, also have high K rates.

In the context of a game, there is little difference between a strikeout and any other out. Using linear weights, for instance, a runner on 1st base with 0 outs scores about 38% of the time, drops to 25% with 1 out and down to 12% with 2 outs.

Now, assuming an out was "productive", which is rarely the case, the runner moves to 2nd base with 1 out and the chance of scoring rises from 38% with 0 out to 41% with 1 out. You sacrifice an out to gain only 3% better chance at scoring.

Now, given the above, if there is still a runner on 1st base, but there is 1 out. The end result changes. With 1 out, the change of scoring with a runner on 1st base is 25% (see above), but if there is a "productive" out, the chance of the runner on 2nd base with 2 outs drops to 21%.

Now, to actually address all of this, you need to understand the frequency to which they happen. Even a fielder's choice, may not result with a runner on 2nd base. All of these "productive" outs occur less frequently than grounding into double plays.


In 2011 AL


25.7% of all outs were Ks

10.5% of all possible double play scenarios = an actual DP

5.6% of all outs were double plays

2.8% of all outs were caught stealing or pickoffs.

1.1% of all outs were sacrifice flies

1.0% of all plate appearances result in a reached on error

0.9% of all outs were sacrifice hits


Now, to beat some to the punch, obviously it is quite different if we are talking a runner on 3rd base with 0 outs. 5.3% of all Plate Appearances came with a runner on 3rd base with less than 2 outs.

0 outs = 86%
1 out = 68%
2 outs = 29%


Now to be clear, Ks for a hitter with runners on base is a negative. But, that negative is so slight that most sabermatics say "an out is an out". Truly, the base occupancy and out state dictate how negative it is.

Linear Weights (regardless of outs)

MOB 1b 2b 3b hr bb k out
--- 0.29 0.49 0.68 1.00 0.29 -0.20 -0.20
x-- 0.49 0.97 1.36 1.74 0.43 -0.32 -0.36
-x- 0.72 1.00 1.16 1.60 0.23 -0.39 -0.34
--x 0.72 0.86 1.00 1.51 0.21 -0.48 -0.29
xx- 0.93 1.54 1.94 2.38 0.56 -0.52 -0.48
x-x 0.88 0.93 1.77 2.22 0.38 -0.61 -0.46
-xx 1.17 1.46 1.62 2.07 0.23 -0.70 -0.56
xxx 1.38 2.00 2.40 2.86 1.00 -0.82 -0.68

ROB 0.73 1.14 1.49 1.92 0.42 -0.44 -0.42

avg 0.49 0.79 1.06 1.42 0.35 -0.31 -0.30


These values are derived from actual historical data. The conditions were then assigned values based on not just scoring 1 run, but for scoring more runs. As you can see, in any other base state than a runner on 3B, a strike out is not much different than any other out. And again, only 5.3% of Plate Appearances happen with a runner on 3B with less than two outs.

For certain hitters, you accept the strikeouts (i.e. Matt Kemp). That is, if there are other positive skill-sets they bring along with the high Ks.

There have been a few quality/successful pitchers who did not have high K rates (i.e. Kenny Rogers). But, they too had other skill-sets that made it work, usually very good command.
 
ESPN showed an interesting statistic. They listed a number of pitchers and opponents Batting averages against when the ball was put in play. For example, Curt Schilling was something like .293 against. So, if a guy can K a hitter, the less of a chance of something bad happening.
 
Career BAbip vs Top 15 Career K Leaders (and Verlander)

Seaver .262 (.264 Away)

Sutton .265 (.273 Away)

N. Ryan .269 (.283 Away)

Jenkins .272 (.269 Away)

B. Gibson .273 (.261 Away)

Niekro .273 (.273 Away)

Perry .278 (.285 Away)

P. Martinez .282 (.282 Away)

W. Johnson .283 (.287 Away)

Carlton .284 (.290 Away)

Maddux .284 (.294 Away)

Clemens .286 (.283 Away)

Blyleven .286 (.285 Away)

Verlander .287 (.297 Away)

R. Johnson .295 (.294 Away)

Schilling .297 (.291 Away)


MLB Averages

2011 = .295

2006 = .301

2001 = .296

1996 = .301

1991 = .285

1986 = .286

1981 = .279

1976 = .281

1971 = .276

1966 = .276

1961 = .279
 
If there is no one on and a player K's on 3 pitchers or a players fly's out on the 3rd pitch then its probably the same :)
 
rebbiv said:
Career BAbip vs Top 15 Career K Leaders (and Verlander)

Seaver .262 (.264 Away)

Sutton .265 (.273 Away)

N. Ryan .269 (.283 Away)

Jenkins .272 (.269 Away)

B. Gibson .273 (.261 Away)

Niekro .273 (.273 Away)

Perry .278 (.285 Away)

P. Martinez .282 (.282 Away)

W. Johnson .283 (.287 Away)

Carlton .284 (.290 Away)

Maddux .284 (.294 Away)

Clemens .286 (.283 Away)

Blyleven .286 (.285 Away)

Verlander .287 (.297 Away)

R. Johnson .295 (.294 Away)

Schilling .297 (.291 Away)


MLB Averages

2011 = .295

2006 = .301

2001 = .296

1996 = .301

1991 = .285

1986 = .286

1981 = .279

1976 = .281

1971 = .276

1966 = .276

1961 = .279

and for comparison, but is the career BA with Ks included?
 
batcave76 said:
The more a pitcher throws K's the more pitches he generally throws. Thus, pitch count becomes an issue. Don't know about "glamour" but it sure fires the crowd up!!

That's completely wrong.
 
[color=#551A8B said:
Rich what? Richmond![/color]]K's are big for a pitcher. Some situations need a strikeout and a lot of pitchers can't deliver. However strikeouts are not everything for a pitcher. Greg Maddux was never a strikeout pitcher, however its easier to just get more Ks then be Maddux.

Look at a list of the top strikeout pitchers of all time, Ryan, Unit, Clemens, Walter Johnson, Steve Carlton...hell Greg Maddux is 10th all time in Ks with 3371. These are some of the best pitchers ever spanning different eras of the sport. Is it a glamour stat? Maybe so, but who gives a crap because the best pitchers are also strikeout pitchers.
 
Probably true. If you're a ground ball pitcher but don't k guys then you might be good but to Be the best of the best you really need to k guys. Easier to pitch if you allow 21 batted balls in play rather than say, 29. In a 9 inning start.
 
[color=#006400 said:
Mitch[/color]]Probably true. If you're a ground ball pitcher but don't k guys then you might be good but to Be the best of the best you really need to k guys. Easier to pitch if you allow 21 batted balls in play rather than say, 29. In a 9 inning start.


This is true.

There is a rule of thumb stat that most scouts go by, 4.5k/9 or better means you can be successful, less than 4.5k/9 generally means you're going to get torn a new asshole.

This applies to contact pitchers as well as strikeout/overpower pitchers, as it's basically crude guide to how well your stuff/deception to the hitter is.
 
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