Brokered Convention

[biggunsbob]

What are the chances? Seems like Republicans maybe headed for one.Any thoughts . I wish I could find a concise list of all brokered Conventions. They sound really cool and stressful where the leader going into it most times get compromised out.

 

[tinselwolverine]

What are the chances? Seems like Republicans maybe headed for one.Any thoughts . I wish I could find a concise list of all brokered Conventions. They sound really cool and stressful where the leader going into it most times get compromised out.

List of Democratic National Conventions.

List of Republican National Conventions.

If you need any more edjicating, you should ask byco directly.

He knows this shit better than he knows the WAR value of Babe Ruth vs. Honus Wagner.

And, by the way, nobody knows that shit about Babe Ruth and Honus Wagner better than byco.

* It appears that that in the Democratic nomination of 1896, the number of ballots enumerated on Wikipedia is "about 5."

Really? Nobody actually remembered?

Williams Jenning Bryant was nominated against Democratic incumbent President Grover Cleveland.

Bryant would lose the election to Republican Benjamin Harrison (the grandson of the dumbass 9th president William Henry Harrison, who died after just over a month in office because he basically did the whole inauguration thing nude, in the rain and cold for ten fucking hours, the way apparently Milana Trump is going to do)...

...and Cleveland would be elected president again four years later.

I guess, nobody remembers how many ballots there actually were, because...

...the convention was in pre-prohibition Chicago...and...everybody was probably pretty drunk.

 

[biggunsbob]

Yeah some of those were crazy back then like in 1880 with 36 freaking ballots.

 

[tigermud]

I keep hearing trump needs somewhere within the low 50's% of remaining delegates to wrap it up while Cruz would need 80% or something. Trump somehow finished 3rd in UT though so also hearing that the establishment will be doing whatever they can to keep trump from getting to 1237, if that happens, all bets are off and who knows who will end up getting the nomination yet, hell it could still be Jeb Bush under this clown show system. LOL..

Republican national committee chairman Reince Priebus was asked couple weeks back about it all, at one point he was asked, why even have a primary then, why do people vote at all if you can just do whatever you want at the convention if no ones gets 1237, he basically replied, I don't know, that's a really good question.

The appearance of a choice, you can vote for whomever you want as long as it's A or B.

Well.. i'll tell what, I still won't be able to bring myself to vote for Hillary in Nov. Could just end up staying home if there isn't a good third party ticket choice and if the repos end up inserting their own choice ignoring the public primary voters. The only good thing I can see coming from a Hillary presidency right now is that she may actually seek to end the UFO cover-ups at least. That might not be a bad thing. Bill had already tried and failed though so, meh..

http://dailycaller.com/2016/03/25/h...i-think-we-ought-to-share-it-with-the-public/

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2014/04/bill-clinton-wouldnt-be-surprised-if-aliens-exist/

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/john-podesta-hillary-clinton-ufos_us_56d730c9e4b03260bf78f129

 

[tinselwolverine]

I heard a report that 60% of Republican voters wants the top delegate winner to be the nominee.

That would mean that there are enough Republicans who, even if they don't vote for Trump in the primary, don't have a problem with him being the nominee.

 

[Gulo Blue]

I keep hearing trump needs somewhere within the low 50's% of remaining delegates to wrap it up

Might be tough to stop him if this National Enquirer story doesn't get put to bed quickly.

 

[tigermud]

Might be tough to stop him if this National Enquirer story doesn't get put to bed quickly.

http://www.inquisitr.com/2926834/do...-cruz-sex-scandal-story-in-national-enquirer/

Haven't paid too much attention to it looks more damaging to Cruz than trump? Those two are really going at each now now it seems. lol

 

[grandy]

Rubio wants to hold onto his delegates to stall Trump

http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/29/politics/marco-rubio-donald-trump-delegates/index.html

 

[Gulo Blue]

Hypothetical: let's say it's Clinton for the Dems and a brokered convention. Who could the Republicans reasonably pick that would swing moderate Dems to vote Republican?

Would you vote Kasich? Who would get your attention? Colin Powell is 78. McCain is 79.

 

[tinselwolverine]

Hypothetical: let's say it's Clinton for the Dems and a brokered convention. Who could the Republicans reasonably pick that would swing moderate Dems to vote Republican?

Would you vote Kasich? Who would get your attention? Colin Powell is 78. McCain is 79.

Kasich matched up best to beat Clinton. By far.

 

[sggatecl]

Hypothetical: let's say it's Clinton for the Dems and a brokered convention. Who could the Republicans reasonably pick that would swing moderate Dems to vote Republican?

Would you vote Kasich? Who would get your attention? Colin Powell is 78. McCain is 79.

If I was a Godly man I would be praying for Kasich nightly.

 

[Gulo Blue]

538 has a projection that I think is a simple extrapolation from the current delegate counts. Trump is at 95% of the target right now, which I think means if he picks up the same percentage going forward that he has so far, he'll be 5% short.

I hope they start estimating how likely that is to happen soon.

It seems pretty clear to me that 538 is anti-Trump, so I don't think they are likely to say anything that might help him though.

 

[tinselwolverine]

I hope they start estimating how likely that is to happen soon.

???

You just cited in estimate.

If the delegate allocation continues as it is, the probabilities are 100%.

 

[tinselwolverine]

Chris Krueger Senior Policy Analyst for Guggenheim Securities just appeared on CNN and stated that his firm is calculating that the probabilities of Trump achieving a first ballot victory are 70%.

 

[Gulo Blue]

???

You just cited in estimate.

If the delegate allocation continues as it is, the probabilities are 100%.

I think they can do better than that. I know how bad the polls were for the Dems in Michigan, but I would still like to see their poll based models for what's left. I think the gist of it is that they break populations up by income, gender, race, education, and party affiliation and they have estimates of the breakdown of the the population for each country. So they can compare how each group tends to vote relative to recent polling numbers, then compare that to the polls for and the demographics for the remaining states. I imagine the probabilities come from applying the method to past elections and getting a distribution of errors. So they know, of the times when the model said someone would win by a margin of X, they were right Y% of the time.

 

[Gulo Blue]

Chris Krueger Senior Policy Analyst for Guggenheim Securities just appeared on CNN and stated that his firm is calculating that the probabilities of Trump achieving a first ballot victory are 70%.

Yeah. That's the kind of prediction I wanted to hear.

70% friggin' percent.

What would we call Bill? "First Gentleman"? "First Spouse"?

 

[sggatecl]

Yeah. That's the kind of prediction I wanted to hear.

70% friggin' percent.

What would we call Bill? "First Gentleman"? "First Spouse"?

I prefer "Puppet Master".

 

[Spartanmack]

Yeah. That's the kind of prediction I wanted to hear.

70% friggin' percent.

What would we call Bill? "First Gentleman"? "First Spouse"?

I like "27 Burner Bill" or maybe the First Philanderer, First Rapist, something along those lines but I think the conventional wisdom is that it will be the First Gentleman, even though he is anything but.

 

[tinselwolverine]

Yeah. That's the kind of prediction I wanted to hear.

70% friggin' percent.

What would we call Bill? "First Gentleman"? "First Spouse"?

I think people would call him what they've been calling him since he was first inaugurated, just like people have been calling HW Bush the same thing since he was first inaugurated and W Bush and Jimmy Carter and will soon be calling Barack Obama once his successor is sworn in-"Mr. President" or "President Clinton"-obviously the other guys are president of their own name.

 

[grandy]

I don't know what the main thread for this stuff is anymore, but anyway

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-state-by-state-roadmap-for-the-rest-of-the-republican-primary/

A state-by-state roadmap for the rest of the Republican primary