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Rebbiv
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There is an adage...."stolen bases are off of the pitcher, not off the catcher". While this is basically true if the pitcher is allowing the runner to get a huge lead. Who is catching also impacts whether the runner actually goes or not.
Slow or slower runners, as a rule, are not going to run on the Yader Molina's of the world. When Miguel Cabrera gets a stolen base, who did he steal it on?
Over the last 3 years, only one MLB catcher averaged over 125 games played as catcher. That is Yader Molina, followed by Kurt Suzuki at just under 125 games. Ivan Rodriguez is 15th in innings caught over the last 3 years, and has averaged roughly 80 games per season.
Now everyone looks at the caught stealing percent by a catcher. But if 2 catchers have basically the same caught stealing percent, then who is better? Well, I would suggest it is the catcher that has a lower amount of attempted steals against them.
If you take the innings caught, SB and CS (SB+CS = attempted) and normalize for 125-games caught, you get a varibale. You can then multiply that by the CS% and you get the amount of stolen bases that would happen if that catcher caught 125 games.
The MLB averages over the last 3 years (per 125 games caught):
27.7% CS 0.88 SBA/G 80 SB 30 CS
Avila
31.5% CS 0.88 SBA/G 76 SB 35 CS
V. Martinez
19.3% CS 1.13 SBA/G 114 SB 27 CS
Laird
36.4% CS 0.95 SBA/G 76 SB 43 CS
There were 55 MLB catchers with at least 1,000 innings caught over the last 3 years. Only 17 (including Avila) caught over 2,000 innings. BTW...Laird is 18th with 1974.
The lowest amount of SB per 125 games is Y. Molina with 37. The highest is Varitek at 136 SB, followed by V-Mart at 114.
Now a comparison:
Barajas 26.5% 0.72 SBA/G 67 SB 24 CS
Napoli 26.1% CS 1.00 SBA/G 92 SB 33 CS
Now, who is running on Barajas and who is running on Napoli? If all a catcher gets is the Carl Crawford types, and the other catcher sees the Ryan Raburns, but both a similar CS%, then you need to look at the rate.
I was going to list all 55 MLB catchers, but decided against it.
Another comparision:
Y. Molina (09-11) 39.6% CS 0.49 SBA/G 37 SB 24 CS
I-Rod (04-06) 44.9% CS 0.51 SBA/G 35 SB 29 CS
Ausmus (99-01) 43.8% CS 0.69 SBA/G 49 SB 38 CS
In their primes, Pudge and Ausmus shutdown the opponents running games, regardless of who was pitching.
Also, 3 of the 4 worst catchers (Varitek, Martinez and Saltamachia), have played for BOS over the last 3 years. So, we might want to look at the BOS pitching staff and see how well they keep runners close. Saltamachia has a decent CS% with 27.7, but the attempts per game is 3rd worst behind Varitek and Branyan Pena.
Slow or slower runners, as a rule, are not going to run on the Yader Molina's of the world. When Miguel Cabrera gets a stolen base, who did he steal it on?
Over the last 3 years, only one MLB catcher averaged over 125 games played as catcher. That is Yader Molina, followed by Kurt Suzuki at just under 125 games. Ivan Rodriguez is 15th in innings caught over the last 3 years, and has averaged roughly 80 games per season.
Now everyone looks at the caught stealing percent by a catcher. But if 2 catchers have basically the same caught stealing percent, then who is better? Well, I would suggest it is the catcher that has a lower amount of attempted steals against them.
If you take the innings caught, SB and CS (SB+CS = attempted) and normalize for 125-games caught, you get a varibale. You can then multiply that by the CS% and you get the amount of stolen bases that would happen if that catcher caught 125 games.
The MLB averages over the last 3 years (per 125 games caught):
27.7% CS 0.88 SBA/G 80 SB 30 CS
Avila
31.5% CS 0.88 SBA/G 76 SB 35 CS
V. Martinez
19.3% CS 1.13 SBA/G 114 SB 27 CS
Laird
36.4% CS 0.95 SBA/G 76 SB 43 CS
There were 55 MLB catchers with at least 1,000 innings caught over the last 3 years. Only 17 (including Avila) caught over 2,000 innings. BTW...Laird is 18th with 1974.
The lowest amount of SB per 125 games is Y. Molina with 37. The highest is Varitek at 136 SB, followed by V-Mart at 114.
Now a comparison:
Barajas 26.5% 0.72 SBA/G 67 SB 24 CS
Napoli 26.1% CS 1.00 SBA/G 92 SB 33 CS
Now, who is running on Barajas and who is running on Napoli? If all a catcher gets is the Carl Crawford types, and the other catcher sees the Ryan Raburns, but both a similar CS%, then you need to look at the rate.
I was going to list all 55 MLB catchers, but decided against it.
Another comparision:
Y. Molina (09-11) 39.6% CS 0.49 SBA/G 37 SB 24 CS
I-Rod (04-06) 44.9% CS 0.51 SBA/G 35 SB 29 CS
Ausmus (99-01) 43.8% CS 0.69 SBA/G 49 SB 38 CS
In their primes, Pudge and Ausmus shutdown the opponents running games, regardless of who was pitching.
Also, 3 of the 4 worst catchers (Varitek, Martinez and Saltamachia), have played for BOS over the last 3 years. So, we might want to look at the BOS pitching staff and see how well they keep runners close. Saltamachia has a decent CS% with 27.7, but the attempts per game is 3rd worst behind Varitek and Branyan Pena.
