Coronainsanity

[tinselwolverine]

yeah, especially when you became the most powerful British dork outside the royal family by being wildly wrong on literally every prediction you ever made. Talk about failing up.

edit: btw, it appears you posted the same link 2x - both take me to the same article. The first pic of the mistress makes her look pretty good, but the latter indicate she could use some treadmill time.

It looks like the same picture to me. Anyway I replaced the picture of the duplicate mistress with a picture of the wife. She?s an African woman who I think now lives in the Netherlands. I guess she?s some kind of an academic egg head.

 

[Spartanmack]

I think it’s a contextual thing. It’s not “predictive”; it’s “estimatory” (sic). The paper was released in March. I expect there was some “encouragement” to get it done. Hence the reliance on a previous model based on the flu combined with the few puzzle pieces of data from China and Korea, and some further reference to 1918, especially. So the guy offered a wide range of mitigation scenarios, and R0 ranges, some gamma dust and whatever else statisticians, epididimologists, (sic) and sabermatricians (sic) do to arrive at conclusions that are better than throwing a handful of grass in the air. Heck, I bet that even Rebbiv worked on this study (uncredited)

As I recall, the timing was one of the main criticisms of the Stanford epidemiologists and public health researchers. Too little was know for any reasonably reliable estimate. Others pointed out his track record, which is pretty horrible - he's the guy who recommended the culling of 11 million sheep and cattle during the foot-and-mouth outbreak where less than 200 people died - apparently not BECAUSE they killed 11 million head of livestock. He was also wildly inaccurate with estimates on mad cow disease, bird flu and swine flu. As you pointed out, his model was based on 13 year old code for a strain of flu but he refused to release the source code so others could check his work, only releasing a heavily revised set of code almost 2 months after publishing the paper. Doesn't seem like he even thinks his estimates would stand up to much scrutiny.

I think that the aggregate of the population is wiser than a handful of elected officials, and my main objection to the business closing were which businesses closed.

I agree - sort of like the wisdom of crowds. I think people, collectively (but not in a socialist way) would come up with measures that protect both their lives and their livelihoods - with better outcomes than letting elected officials pick which scientists to listen to

 

[Spartanmack]

It looks like the same picture to me. Anyway I replaced the picture of the duplicate mistress with a picture of the wife. She’s an African woman who I think now lives in the Netherlands. I guess she’s some kind of an academic egg head.

it's the same article (or was before you changed) - scroll down and you see more pics of her that show she's a Buffalo Bill type.

His wife, Ayanna Hirsi Ali is an activist (and I believe an academic) who was a victim of FGM at the hands of Islamic fundamentalists. She speaks out against the spread of fundamentalist Islam - and for that reason, she was cancelled by the woke mob as a bigot. if you make enemies of people like Linda Sarsour, you're probably doing something right.

 

[byco42]

Now Dr. Fauxchi, the original man without a mask, who said on the record that masks are “symbolic”, now recommends that we wear TWO masks.

Well, not in this image.

I can’t (can) believe this hunk of propaganda. (Link above)

 

[Gulo Blue]

Now Dr. Fauxchi, the original man without a mask, who said on the record that masks are ?symbolic?, now recommends that we wear TWO masks.

Well, not in this image.

I can?t (can) believe this hunk of propaganda. (Link above)

Something can be both functional and symbolic.

 

[byco42]

Something can be both functional and symbolic.

I don?t see much of an endorsement in the functionality of a mask from this Dr. Fauci quote.

?There?s no reason to be walking around with a mask. When you?re in the middle of an outbreak, wearing a mask might make people feel a little bit better and it might even block a droplet, but it?s not providing the perfect protection that people think that it is. And, often, there are unintended consequences ? people keep fiddling with the mask and they keep touching their face.?

And the leading expert in infectious diseases should not have to change his mind so radically about the efficacy of masks. Link

I do not trust this man.

 

[Gulo Blue]

I don’t see much of an endorsement in the functionality of a mask from this Dr. Fauci quote.

“There’s no reason to be walking around with a mask. When you’re in the middle of an outbreak, wearing a mask might make people feel a little bit better and it might even block a droplet, but it’s not providing the perfect protection that people think that it is. And, often, there are unintended consequences — people keep fiddling with the mask and they keep touching their face.”

And the leading expert in infectious diseases should not have to change his mind so radically about the efficacy of masks. Link

I do not trust this man.

This seems like an argument straight out of 2020. Like, I think we discussed it and you already know my response from 2020.

 

[zyxt9]

Something can be both functional and symbolic.

Being in a bubble would fit that. If everyone is in a bubble that is at a minimum 6' in diameter then it would also enforce Social Distancing.

Oh fuck...when these whackjobs see this we will all need to do go buy bubbles, of which there will be a shortage, but if you are not in a bubble, you will not be allowed in stores or even walking around outside!!! Who cares that you are, ya know, OUTSIDE and more than 6' away from anyone else...you MUST BE IN YOUR FUCKING BUBBLE DAMN IT! This will require massive reconstruction of entry ways and width of store aisles. Somehow we have to create an interactive system between the bubble and shopping carts. The carts will likely need to be robots that pick things off the shelf, unload the cart, bag the items, etc. But we can just print up $10 trillion, or more, to make it happen.

 

[Gulo Blue]

Being in a bubble would fit that. If everyone is in a bubble that is at a minimum 6' in diameter then it would also enforce Social Distancing.

Oh fuck...when these whackjobs see this we will all need to do go buy bubbles, of which there will be a shortage, but if you are not in a bubble, you will not be allowed in stores or even walking around outside!!! Who cares that you are, ya know, OUTSIDE and more than 6' away from anyone else...you MUST BE IN YOUR FUCKING BUBBLE DAMN IT! This will require massive reconstruction of entry ways and width of store aisles. Somehow we have to create an interactive system between the bubble and shopping carts. The carts will likely need to be robots that pick things off the shelf, unload the cart, bag the items, etc. But we can just print up $10 trillion, or more, to make it happen.

No 6 foot sombrero?

 

[byco42]

This seems like an argument straight out of 2020. Like, I think we discussed it and you already know my response from 2020.

Wow. Now the relevance of arguments are judged based on the year they were originated? Fauci introduced new information in 2021. Why are two masks better than one? When will three be recommended? When will we be compelled to wear N95s and be fit-tested every day or be fined?

Oh, I remember, the situation is ?always evolving.?

 

[Gulo Blue]

Wow. Now the relevance of arguments are judged based on the year they were originated? Fauci introduced new information in 2021. Why are two masks better than one? When will three be recommended? When will we be compelled to wear N95s and be fit-tested every day or be fined?

Oh, I remember, the situation is ?always evolving.?

No, I'm just saying we've been over this. Fauchi and experts in general shifted their focus on masks from how good they are at preventing the inhalation of virus to how good they are at reducing spread and changed their recommendations. And then everybody had this exact argument in 2020.

Of course two masks are better than one. I bet 12 feet between people is better than 6. How much better, they aren't saying. But I bet the change in recommendation is aimed more at getting people to refocus on wearing masks and not get lazy/tired of it since they don't seem to realize how bad things are right now.

 

[byco42]

No, I'm just saying we've been over this. Fauchi and experts in general shifted their focus on masks from how good they are at preventing the inhalation of virus to how good they are at reducing spread and changed their recommendations. And then everybody had this exact argument in 2020.

Like I said. I do not trust Fauci, with cause. When he says something new or revised, it only increases my distrust.

Of course two masks are better than one. I bet 12 feet between people is better than 6. How much better, they aren't saying. But I bet the change in recommendation is aimed more at getting people to refocus on wearing masks and not get lazy/tired of it since they don't seem to realize how bad things are right now.

All it does for me is remind me these people are not trustworthy. Two masks also reintroduces more CO2 into MY lungs, and we all know about the adverse effects of CO2. And let?s go with 12 feet, to save more lives. Or 18. 36? Whatever it takes, right? Until the vaccine is administered. Then everything will be resolved.

And, there?s this ray of ?optimism? ... Link Fauci looks really optimistic in this image, where he is maskless.

?Let?s say we get 75 percent, 80 percent of the population vaccinated,? Fauci said. ?If we do that, if we do it efficiently enough over the second quarter of 2021, by the time we get to the end of the summer, i.e., the third quarter, we may actually have enough herd immunity protecting our society that as we get to the end of 2021, we can approach very much some degree of normality that is close to where we were before.?​

?Let?s say?? ?We may?? ?Very much some degree of normality??

That statement has no basis in fact or science. It?s a load of no-speak.

Same with this summation from the article:

?If vaccination levels are significantly lower, 40 percent to 50 percent, Fauci said, it could take a very long time to reach that level of protection.?​

Apparently 60% has no effect whatsoever on herd immunity.

And I can?t help but notice how many articles I?ve read about Fauci starts with ?The nation?s top infectious disease doctor...?

 

[Gulo Blue]

Like I said. I do not trust Fauci, with cause. When he says something new or revised, it only increases my distrust.



All it does for me is remind me these people are not trustworthy. Two masks also reintroduces more CO2 into MY lungs, and we all know about the adverse effects of CO2. And let?s go with 12 feet, to save more lives. Or 18. 36? Whatever it takes, right? Until the vaccine is administered. Then everything will be resolved.

And, there?s this ray of ?optimism? ... Link Fauci looks really optimistic in this image, where he is maskless.

?Let?s say we get 75 percent, 80 percent of the population vaccinated,? Fauci said. ?If we do that, if we do it efficiently enough over the second quarter of 2021, by the time we get to the end of the summer, i.e., the third quarter, we may actually have enough herd immunity protecting our society that as we get to the end of 2021, we can approach very much some degree of normality that is close to where we were before.?​

?Let?s say?? ?We may?? ?Very much some degree of normality??

That statement has no basis in fact or science. It?s a load of no-speak.

That's the kind of stuff people want from him. His opinions, based on his understanding of the science. Answering these questions scientifically is impossible unless you've got 1,000 identical Earths we can experiment on.

Same with this summation from the article:

?If vaccination levels are significantly lower, 40 percent to 50 percent, Fauci said, it could take a very long time to reach that level of protection.?​

Apparently 60% has no effect whatsoever on herd immunity.

And I can?t help but notice how many articles I?ve read about Fauci starts with ?The nation?s top infectious disease doctor...?

Immunity generally goes that way. How sharp the sigmoid function is varies, but the shift starting somewhere around 40-50 and shifting through 70-80 isn't unusual.

 

[byco42]

Re Fauci: I’m reminded what my one uncle said to my other uncle when my one uncle invited my other uncle to his third wedding.

“No thanks,” said my other uncle, “I’ll come to your next one.”

 

[byco42]

That's the kind of stuff people want from him. His opinions, based on his understanding of the science. Answering these questions scientifically is impossible unless you've got 1,000 identical Earths we can experiment on.

They don’t consider them as opinions and that’s the idea.

Immunity generally goes that way. How sharp the sigmoid function is varies, but the shift starting somewhere around 40-50 and shifting through 70-80 isn't unusual.

I consider this “interview” base propaganda, with the message “get everyone vaccinated as soon as possible.” Link

“We’ve got to get the whole world vaccinated.” Link. That sound’s like 100% to me.

 

[Michchamp]

I don?t see much of an endorsement in the functionality of a mask from this Dr. Fauci quote.

?There?s no reason to be walking around with a mask. When you?re in the middle of an outbreak, wearing a mask might make people feel a little bit better and it might even block a droplet, but it?s not providing the perfect protection that people think that it is. And, often, there are unintended consequences ? people keep fiddling with the mask and they keep touching their face.?

And the leading expert in infectious diseases should not have to change his mind so radically about the efficacy of masks. Link

I do not trust this man.

there are a lot of reasons to be suspicious of Fauci, but questioning masks at this point is ridiculous.

There's enough data to show aerosol transmission of the virus is primarily how it spreads, and wearing masks keeps dramatically less aerosol droplets in the air, AND to a lesser extent protects the wearer from inhaling them.

earlier in the pandemic, I read comments from people saying gloves were more effective in preventing transmission, and masks were fine, but not necessary. These people changed their tune and admitted they were wrong on this... and that's fine. To me, Fauci's rationale of why he said no masks was more troubling (link):

"I don't regret anything I said then because in the context of the time in which I said it, it was correct. We were told in our task force meetings that we have a serious problem with the lack of PPEs," he said.
​

So it wasn't that he changed his mind when presented with data to the contrary of his earlier recommendation, he intentionally lied.

 

[Gulo Blue]

"I don't regret anything I said then because in the context of the time in which I said it, it was correct. We were told in our task force meetings that we have a serious problem with the lack of PPEs," he said.
​

So it wasn't that he changed his mind when presented with data to the contrary of his earlier recommendation, he intentionally lied.

I would also have a problem with lying, but after he understood their importance, was he saying masks didn't work or was he saying we don't recommend them to the public right now?

To answer that question, you have to know when he knew masks were important.

 

[Michchamp]

I would also have a problem with lying, but after he understood their importance, was he saying masks didn't work or was he saying we don't recommend them to the public right now?

To answer that question, you have to know when he knew masks were important.

He knew they were important way earlier than most of the public did because he lied to them

this sleazy business was going on during that time.

I don't know if Fauci was "in on it," and I don't think he is as much of a scumbag bottom feeder as Kushner or anybody with the last name Trump, and while I would trust Fauci's word over any of theirs if I had to I still wouldn't trust him. Surviving in DC as long as he has is not a badge of honor.

 

[Michchamp]

I would also have a problem with lying, ...

Yeah, if the ends justify the means, sure. Hard to say in this case, given that by accounts I've read, essential workers, including those in hospitals, still don't have adequate supplies of N95 masks and PPE

If your point is "don't lump Fauci in with Trump"... fine, but you could not possibly set the bar any lower there.

 

[Gulo Blue]

Yeah, if the ends justify the means, sure. Hard to say in this case, given that by accounts I've read, essential workers, including those in hospitals, still don't have adequate supplies of N95 masks and PPE

If your point is "don't lump Fauci in with Trump"... fine, but you could not possibly set the bar any lower there.

Don't forget he was prevented from saying things he wanted to say. I don't know all the details and I'm ready to flip my read on him, but I haven't seen the smoking gun yet.

I don't doubt there are smoking guns out there implicating plenty of people we don't know about yet. I'd like to know more about what happened with nursing homes for example.