Coronainsanity

[zyxt9]

Early US data is in. Omicron causes severe cases only half the time as delta.... but infects 4x more people. Mild....

Mild compared to the other named variants, yes. Mild compared to the Smallpox mortality, yes. Eola, yes. Flu, no. Common cold, no.

See, it really depends on context and what you are comparing it to. Without context and comparison, one is not able to determine whether something is Mild or not. You can make this into the worst event in Earth's history (which would mean over 96% of all living things die), or you can claim it is a completely normal event in history (such that there are 0% of deaths considered abnormal)... or any level in-between. The extremes are not reality, and the closer to the extremes one goes, the more unrealistic their arguments.

It is your extremism that results in people disregarding your arguments.

 

[Spartanmack]

A lot of what you mention are great things for when people are sick, or when people have a severe case. You are going down the path of living with this virus....for eternity.

Many who would argue against this point of view arent interested in living with this virus. They were interested in how to defeat it. Id also agree that may be an impossibility now. But only cause people have been dumb for 2 years....we definitely had our chance...and we probably blew it.

Anyways, Earth is probably pretty happy to get rid of a few million more people. Earth is rooting for the next wave to be a 25% death rate. We'll see if that wakes a few people up.

we had no chance. It didn't work and it never would have.

most of what I mentioned or at least most of what I did was around prevention/mitigation. What we did wrong (we being public health autocrats and dictatorial politicians), was to deny people early treatment - that led to larger numbers of severe cases and deaths. There was also a massive failure by medical professionals to not follow the data and instead, strictly follow the protocols pushed down to them by bureaucrats who weren't on the front lines treating patients. That was a massive failure of our response and people should be up in arms over that. How Fauci still has a job is incomprehensible - he has been a complete failure and utter disaster.

And the earth is doing fine.

 

[Spartanmack]

it does really seem like this variant does not cause as severe "sickness" as previous variants, but is putting an equal strain on the hospitals. There was an article on CNN yesterday that said that a Michigan hospital reported that 40% of people admitted to the hospital for non-COVID issues tested positive and had to go through quarantine protocols which puts a strain on operations. From an article today about the outbreak in KY. "Right now, we're still seeing sick people that need oxygen, the overwhelming majority of which are unvaccinated. But a lot of the patients that we're seeing right now have underlying chronic conditions that are being exacerbated," Spencer said.
Those patients, he said, can include "someone who gets Covid is dehydrated and needs to stay in the hospital, or someone who gets Covid and is too weak and they can't go home because they're a fall risk. Those aren't as bad in one sense as those kind of classic Covid patients we were seeing before. But every single patient that needs to stay in the hospital takes up a bed. And beds and staffing are what's in short supply right now."

I wonder if they're one of the hospitals that fired staff who chose not to get vaccinated.

 

[tomdalton22]

I wonder if they're one of the hospitals that fired staff who chose not to get vaccinated.

it was an article from CNN...they would never report that! :cheers:

 

[Spartanmack]

Early US data is in. Omicron causes severe cases only half the time as delta.... but infects 4x more people. Mild....

eh, that datapoint is missing an awful lot of context. According to this NYT piece which was a study of 69,279 symptomatic patients from 11/30 thru 1/1 in the Kaiser Permanente hospital system in California.

- 75% of the infections were Omicron and the rest Delta.
- AFTER excluding patients who came to the hospital for something else then tested positive for Covid, Omicron cut the risk of hospitalization in half (note hospitalization includes people who are dehydrated, weak and a fall risk).
- Of the 52,000 Omicron cases, not a single patient was put on a ventilator (doesn't sound particularly severe)
- the Omicron variant cut average hospital stays by 3 days (>70% decrease compared to Delta) - probably because none of them required ventilators and many just needed IV rehydration and nutrition treatments to be storng enough to go home.
- during that period Delta accounted for 14 deaths vs. just 1 for Omicron

Yes, it's pretty mild, especially relative to prior strains. Oddly, the NYT piece doesn't mention staffing shortages when it talks about the strain on US hospitals.

 

[tomdalton22]

eh, that datapoint is missing an awful lot of context. According to this NYT piece which was a study of 69,279 symptomatic patients from 11/30 thru 1/1 in the Kaiser Permanente hospital system in California.

- 75% of the infections were Omicron and the rest Delta.
- AFTER excluding patients who came to the hospital for something else then tested positive for Covid, Omicron cut the risk of hospitalization in half (note hospitalization includes people who are dehydrated, weak and a fall risk).
- Of the 52,000 Omicron cases, not a single patient was put on a ventilator (doesn't sound particularly severe)
- the Omicron variant cut average hospital stays by 3 days (>70% decrease compared to Delta) - probably because none of them required ventilators and many just needed IV rehydration and nutrition treatments to be storng enough to go home.
- during that period Delta accounted for 14 deaths vs. just 1 for Omicron

Yes, it's pretty mild, especially relative to prior strains. Oddly, the NYT piece doesn't mention staffing shortages when it talks about the influx the strain on US hospitals.

that's great info

I know it's a small sample, but I'm going to do some 3rd grade math for a certain poster

rounded & rate as a percentage

52K Omicron patients. 1 died = 0.0019% mortality rate
17K Delta patients. 14 died = 0.081% mortality rate

based on the data provided, Delta is 42x more deadly than Omicron

 

[Michchamp]

that's great info

I know it's a small sample, but I'm going to do some 3rd grade math for a certain poster

rounded & rate as a percentage

52K Omicron patients. 1 died = 0.0019% mortality rate
17K Delta patients. 14 died = 0.081% mortality rate

based on the data provided, Delta is 42x more deadly than Omicron

But certainly you'd be remiss for failing to point out omicron is significantly more virulent than Delta, and the reporting of deaths lags case reporting, so the data you're working with is likely not accurate?

 

[Michchamp]

This is fun.

Still no information on who was funding the research, & why.

There's a lot of inconsistency between politicians and idiots bashing China here, and what the corporations who own those politicians are doing. I'm all for not doing cut-rate viral research in China anymore, but I assume if someone tried to pass a bill banning that here, we'd start hearing from the US Chamber of Commerce, Americans for Prosperity, etc. etc. that was "regulatory overreach" and "government power run amok."

 

[Spartanmack]

But certainly you'd be remiss for failing to point out omicron is significantly more virulent than Delta, and the reporting of deaths lags case reporting, so the data you're working with is likely not accurate?

no we wouldn't be remiss, you'd be nit picking. That's been mentioned many times and it's in the data and the article itself as well. Also, if death data lags for Omicron, it most certainly lags for Delta too - so it's not clear at all that the data is flawed in any way. When you consider Omicron cuts hospital stays by >70% - if people are going home faster w/ Omicron, it makes sense that any lagged data re: deaths would likely indicate Omicron is even less deadlier than this data suggests.

Good try though.

 

[Spartanmack]

This is fun.

Still no information on who was funding the research, & why.

There's a lot of inconsistency between politicians and idiots bashing China here, and what the corporations who own those politicians are doing. I'm all for not doing cut-rate viral research in China anymore, but I assume if someone tried to pass a bill banning that here, we'd start hearing from the US Chamber of Commerce, Americans for Prosperity, etc. etc. that was "regulatory overreach" and "government power run amok."

whoa, you mean it could have come from a lab that we know was performing dangerous research on corona viruses? Holy cow! Do us all a favor and see what you can find out about this lunar landing story that's hit the headlines. Also, I heard they shot President Kennedy! Can you believe this? Let us know what you find out about that rumor as well.

 

[tomdalton22]

But certainly you'd be remiss for failing to point out omicron is significantly more virulent than Delta, and the reporting of deaths lags case reporting, so the data you're working with is likely not accurate?

I admitted that the sample size is small. Only 69K patients. I would say the data is accurate for that particular sample. It was for the month of December which is a pretty good period of time.

Some of those patients may have died since Jan 1...who knows? But, based on that many patients, my guess is that the ratios will still be pretty close.

That said, I have repeated over and over that we do not know exactly why fewer people are dying (per 1000 cases). It could be the simple fact that it is less deadly. Or it could be that people are "vaccinated". My guess is it is a little of both. I do believe that people that are vaccinated are less likely to get very sick and I do believe that Omicron is less deadly than previous strains.

 

[mhughes0021]

I admitted that the sample size is small. Only 69K patients. I would say the data is accurate for that particular sample. It was for the month of December which is a pretty good period of time.

Some of those patients may have died since Jan 1...who knows? But, based on that many patients, my guess is that the ratios will still be pretty close.

That said, I have repeated over and over that we do not know exactly why fewer people are dying (per 1000 cases). It could be the simple fact that it is less deadly. Or it could be that people are "vaccinated". My guess is it is a little of both. I do believe that people that are vaccinated are less likely to get very sick and I do believe that Omicron is less deadly than previous strains.

Omicron wasnt all that prevelent until the end of Decemeber. Which means the data is basically being pulled only for the couple of weeks people began to get sick.

Gotta give people time to die. Numbers will be a little more accurate toward the end of Jan. Any numbers we have now are garbage.

 

[tigermud]

Here's a perfect example of taking this WAY too far...

https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/12/americas/quebec-vaccine-mandate-intl/index.html

What's next? The Canadian Inquisition??? Do you submit to taking the vaccine? No! Take him to The Rack. If he still refuses then he can have his arms and legs pulled off and DIE!!! Or use the red hot glowing poker in the eye, mouth, or perhaps the ass...

Yes...YES...TORTURE WILL FORCE THEM INTO BEING VACCINATED!!! BWAHAHAHA

I am fully aware that some on here will see zero issue with what Canada is doing to force people to become vaccinated.

CN has fallen to medical tyranny, the same will happen here in various places hopefully not the entire country pending SC ruling.

 

[Spartanmack]

Omicron wasnt all that prevelent until the end of Decemeber. Which means the data is basically being pulled only for the couple of weeks people began to get sick.

Gotta give people time to die. Numbers will be a little more accurate toward the end of Jan. Any numbers we have now are garbage.

75% of the cases were Omicron and people were being released from the hospital in 1/3rd the time of Delta patients. Yet you're so convinced Omicron is deadlier than the data says it is. So make an over/under market on the lethality of Omicron - what's your expert arm chair epidemiologist opinion?

BTW, people who are getting released from the hospital in less than half the time of other strains just "need more time to die" - that actually made me laugh when I read it. Thanks for that.

 

[tomdalton22]

Omicron wasnt all that prevelent until the end of Decemeber. Which means the data is basically being pulled only for the couple of weeks people began to get sick.

Gotta give people time to die. Numbers will be a little more accurate toward the end of Jan. Any numbers we have now are garbage.

but it's still a fact that they had 52K Omicron patients and only 1 died (0.0019%) but had 17K Delta patients and 14 died (0.08%).

 

[Spartanmack]

but it's still a fact that they had 52K Omicron patients and only 1 died (0.0019%) but had 17K Delta patients and 14 died (0.08%).

3rd grade math would tell you that a strain with lower hospitalization rates, higher recovery rates, recovery times less than 1/3rd as long as prior strains just needs a little more time to kill people. You'll probably start seeing it in the data very soon.

 

[mhughes0021]

3rd grade math would tell you that a strain with lower hospitalization rates, higher recovery rates, recovery times less than 1/3rd as long as prior strains just needs a little more time to kill people. You'll probably start seeing it in the data very soon.

i get youre trying to be funny...but everything you said is true. The good news is recovery times for omicron are reduced. Hospitals stays are shortened. That absolutely will skew early data. It takes into account almost solely the people that have recovered. It doesnt take into account those that are still in the hospital dying. Especially when youre talking solely December data.

 

[Spartanmack]

i get youre trying to be funny...but everything you said is true. The good news is recovery times for omicron are reduced. Hospitals stays are shortened. That absolutely will skew early data. It takes into account almost solely the people that have recovered. It doesnt take into account those that are still in the hospital dying. Especially when youre talking solely December data.

Yes, the good news is all true but no, the idea that we just haven't lived w/ Omicron long enough to know it's less lethal is not true. You realize there's data from Europe and South Africa, places dealing with Omicron longer than we have been, that's consistent with what we're experiencing right?

so what's your number? how much is it skewed by? And how long do you want to wait for people to die so we can get an accurate fatality rate?

 

[zyxt9]

Doctors report that the mutations in Omicron are resulting in it staying out of the lungs. The other variants, Covid severely attacked the lungs.

That is the Science behind why Omicron is more mild and far less deadly.

 

[zyxt9]

i get youre trying to be funny...but everything you said is true. The good news is recovery times for omicron are reduced. Hospitals stays are shortened. That absolutely will skew early data. It takes into account almost solely the people that have recovered. It doesnt take into account those that are still in the hospital dying. Especially when youre talking solely December data.

And those dying are vastly more likely to have Delta than Omicron.