Davis and the NBA

[Sbee]

I'm hearing that the plan has been for him to go to the combine and make a decision after. There are some new rules this year where kids can come back after working out there. I don't know how his poor performances vs Purdue and mtsu affect this but he'd be a project for sure. He'd be in the day league and he'd be on a serious strength program. Sounds like he's going to take his time. It's easy to say he's not ready, he's not ready to play in the NBA but he could get paid huge bucks to jump.

 

[Spartan23MSU]

def not ready. I know its tempting to get $ right off but why not lay 3 years become a force , ready to play mentally and physically then go as a top 5. The chances of him having a career ending injury are quite slim. I guessI just dont understand the mentality sometimes.

 

[johnny2x2x]

Every year there are numerous mocks published that in no way reflect the reality of what NBA scouts think. Davis is not a 1st round pick and I think every NBA scout will tell him that this Spring. If he goes to the combine and dazzles, maybe he goes, but I think he goes to the combine and gets told he needs another year to develop. And maturity is also something Izzo and his parents will consider, he's not ready to be out on his own yet.

 

[MSUMatt28]

He is probably not ready to help an NBA team next year, but the NBA drafts on potential. Athletic 6-10 players with long arms who in their first year show the ability to block shots and rebound, the frame to get up into the 250 lb range, and some semblance of ability to score in the post get first round grades.

It's easy for us to say he needs another year to develop, but he can make the improvements he needs to make while getting paid. And no the scouts are going to want him in this year's draft as it's not likely a strong one and more players with potential, even if raw, in it makes it deeper.

Ultimately it probably comes down to how badly he wants to be a part of next year's loaded roster and the maturity factor. From a pure economical standpoint entering the draft probably makes more sense.

 

[Spartan23MSU]

He is probably not ready to help an NBA team next year, but the NBA drafts on potential. Athletic 6-10 players with long arms who in their first year show the ability to block shots and rebound, the frame to get up into the 250 lb range, and some semblance of ability to score in the post get first round grades.

It's easy for us to say he needs another year to develop, but he can make the improvements he needs to make while getting paid. And no the scouts are going to want him in this year's draft as it's not likely a strong one and more players with potential, even if raw, in it makes it deeper.

Ultimately it probably comes down to how badly he wants to be a part of next year's loaded roster and the maturity factor. From a pure economical standpoint entering the draft probably makes more sense.

I feel a bit different in that aspect but agree on the others. so lets say he gets bottom of the first round struggles and is out in 2 years vs developing getting a bigger long term contract and being ready. Id wager if guys like him stayed 3 years got top 5 after 5-10 years they got several million more to blow. That seems the intelligent way to go if looking to play more than 1-2 years as a pro. He hasnt even proven he can hit a hot outside of 6 feet. his best asset is blocking, well the NBA is laden with defense until the playoffs. hes decent at the stripe but hes got a waaaays to go. Big zach randolf was ready but hes a rare talent and was physically able and I felt that even when he left.

 

[Sbee]

If he's going to go in the top 15 or so I can't argue for him to stay. I can say it's good for MSU if he stays, can't say it would be good for DD.

If you were going to be am early 1st rounder and you decide to stay you're making a risky wager that your game is going to get so much better at MSU than it would in the league. There are good coaches and trainers there too and they'll spend to develop a player. Are you going to be incrementally better and is that risk worth foregoing life changing money?

 

[gotime909]

I suggest all of you to google Muskegon Heights with any of these words: Crime, shootings, poverty, gangs.

This decision might not be about being ready.

 

[Sbee]

I suggest all of you to google Muskegon Heights with any of these words: Crime, shootings, poverty, gangs.

This decision might not be about being ready.

From a pure basketball standpoint he's so far from being ready. I think it's about him being mature enough to live the NBA life at 20, I sure as hell wouldn't have been. There are some posters on another board that are part of DD'S inner circle and they have always said he'd be at msu for at least two years. Thaay have changed and it doesn't hurt to go through the combine now. There's a lot that goes into the decision outside of his game, like the factors you mentioned

 

[everyoneneedsasmil]

There are a few things to keep in mind that I don't think have been addressed.

First, if a player wants/needs to develop, he will do so best in the NBA (NOT college). This is both intuitive and has been shown through studies. The NCAA and NBA games are very different, and if you want to be at your best in the NBA, you need NBA coaching/training.

Second, the scrutiny of a player goes up considerably every year he stays in school. If he plans to stay in college and still make it to the NBA, he'll need to have a surefire way to more minutes, more shots, and more responsibility. Being a hyper athletic 8 and 5 only works as a freshman. Unless he turns that into 16 and 10 next year, scouts will rip him apart as stagnating.

Third, there are three to four players joining the team next year that could (probably will) get more notice and opportunity than Davis. Part of that is how good those players are, part of that is the nature of being a non ball-handling big man in the NCAA. Davis staying and playing a bit part on a championship team won't sell much (you can look at the history of Kentucky's players staying past their freshman years).

If Davis has multiple teams saying that they will draft him in the first round, he should probably go. Leaving now doesn't stop him from getting a degree later, and he's more likely to develop into a long-term NBA player by getting NBA coaching. But it's that first round pick that really matters. First rounders are guaranteed two years, and teams are invested in seeing them pan out. Second rounders need to be very clever in the structuring of their contract and at the same time will not necessarily receive the same amount of developmental investment as first round picks.

 

[MSUMatt28]

There are a few things to keep in mind that I don't think have been addressed.

First, if a player wants/needs to develop, he will do so best in the NBA (NOT college). This is both intuitive and has been shown through studies. The NCAA and NBA games are very different, and if you want to be at your best in the NBA, you need NBA coaching/training.

Second, the scrutiny of a player goes up considerably every year he stays in school. If he plans to stay in college and still make it to the NBA, he'll need to have a surefire way to more minutes, more shots, and more responsibility. Being a hyper athletic 8 and 5 only works as a freshman. Unless he turns that into 16 and 10 next year, scouts will rip him apart as stagnating.

Third, there are three to four players joining the team next year that could (probably will) get more notice and opportunity than Davis. Part of that is how good those players are, part of that is the nature of being a non ball-handling big man in the NCAA. Davis staying and playing a bit part on a championship team won't sell much (you can look at the history of Kentucky's players staying past their freshman years).

If Davis has multiple teams saying that they will draft him in the first round, he should probably go. Leaving now doesn't stop him from getting a degree later, and he's more likely to develop into a long-term NBA player by getting NBA coaching. But it's that first round pick that really matters. First rounders are guaranteed two years, and teams are invested in seeing them pan out. Second rounders need to be very clever in the structuring of their contract and at the same time will not necessarily receive the same amount of developmental investment as first round picks.

Agree that scouts pick apart your game and nitpick more the longer you stay in school. Disagree that having other talented teammates to share the ball and shots with and possibly lowering your stats or minutes has much to do with that. Karl Anthony Towns barely averaged 10 ppg last year and still went #1 over Okafor who averaged 17.

 

[Sbee]

Agree that scouts pick apart your game and nitpick more the longer you stay in school. Disagree that having other talented teammates to share the ball and shots with and possibly lowering your stats or minutes has much to do with that. Karl Anthony Towns barely averaged 10 ppg last year and still went #1 over Okafor who averaged 17.

sharing the spotlight doesn't hurt but you do need to at least get enough touches. I think it might be an issue if Costello was a junior and there wouldn't be an increase in opportunity next year. I don't think the makeup of the 2016-2017 team would negatively impact Davis though

 

[MSUMatt28]

sharing the spotlight doesn't hurt but you do need to at least get enough touches. I think it might be an issue if Costello was a junior and there wouldn't be an increase in opportunity next year. I don't think the makeup of the 2016-2017 team would negatively impact Davis though

Agree, I think he would likely start at the 5 and be the primary option in the post and plenty of space to operate in there (with Bridges at the 4 and then whatever combination of our assortment of bodies at the 1, 2, 3).

 

[Spartanmack]

There are a few things to keep in mind that I don't think have been addressed.

First, if a player wants/needs to develop, he will do so best in the NBA (NOT college). This is both intuitive and has been shown through studies. The NCAA and NBA games are very different, and if you want to be at your best in the NBA, you need NBA coaching/training.

Second, the scrutiny of a player goes up considerably every year he stays in school. If he plans to stay in college and still make it to the NBA, he'll need to have a surefire way to more minutes, more shots, and more responsibility. Being a hyper athletic 8 and 5 only works as a freshman. Unless he turns that into 16 and 10 next year, scouts will rip him apart as stagnating.

Third, there are three to four players joining the team next year that could (probably will) get more notice and opportunity than Davis. Part of that is how good those players are, part of that is the nature of being a non ball-handling big man in the NCAA. Davis staying and playing a bit part on a championship team won't sell much (you can look at the history of Kentucky's players staying past their freshman years).

If Davis has multiple teams saying that they will draft him in the first round, he should probably go. Leaving now doesn't stop him from getting a degree later, and he's more likely to develop into a long-term NBA player by getting NBA coaching. But it's that first round pick that really matters. First rounders are guaranteed two years, and teams are invested in seeing them pan out. Second rounders need to be very clever in the structuring of their contract and at the same time will not necessarily receive the same amount of developmental investment as first round picks.

what are the studies that show he's better off in the NBA? It may make sense intuitively but I thought there were way more cases of busts among kids that left early or skipped college altogether than there were successes.

Do these studies show that kids are better off leaving early or that staying longer doesn't make a measurable difference?

 

[everyoneneedsasmil]

what are the studies that show he's better off in the NBA? It may make sense intuitively but I thought there were way more cases of busts among kids that left early or skipped college altogether than there were successes.

Do these studies show that kids are better off leaving early or that staying longer doesn't make a measurable difference?

I honestly apologize, I know the info was in an ESPN article and I can't find it yet. The gist of the article was that the more time with nba coaching, the more players improved. Staying in school reduced the expected production of players. There are some interesting points, also, how high school players were not actually more likely to bust (all players are about equally likely, though upperclassmen tend to be undervalued on draft night.) So the really good upperclassmen ended up under-rated, but the really good high schoolers and freshman ended up better overall.

 

[Spartan23MSU]

what are the studies that show he's better off in the NBA? It may make sense intuitively but I thought there were way more cases of busts among kids that left early or skipped college altogether than there were successes.

Do these studies show that kids are better off leaving early or that staying longer doesn't make a measurable difference?

This, you essentially posted my thoughts.