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mhughes0021
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good article giving some quality stats/insight on whats really going on and how we can still improve as a team.
Lions a legit NFC challengerDetroit is playing well but can still improve in several key areasUpdated: October 17, 2013, 1:11 PM ETBy KC Joyner | ESPN Insider Recommend18Tweet8Comments5EmailPrint
There has been a changing of the guard at the top of each NFC division after six weeks of the 2013 NFL season. While it isn't surprising to see Dallas, New Orleans and Seattle, all of whom had a 7-9 record or better in 2012, occupying the top spot in their respective divisions, it is somewhat surprising to see the Detroit Lions -- a team that won four games last season -- in first place in the NFC North with a 4-2 mark.
Good early starts don't always turn into postseason finishes, so the question regarding the Lions is whether this quality start is for real and, if it is, whether Detroit can maintain this pace for the rest of the year.
A detailed analysis of metrics and game tapes indicates the start is for real. But what's more telling is that this team has multiple paths to significant improvement. The Lions' record isn't just what makes them a contender; it's that they haven't played as well as they should. If they do, the Lions are both a strong contender to win the NFC North and a dangerous playoff team.
Offense
With all due respect to Calvin Johnson, Detroit's best offensive player this year has to be Reggie Bush. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Bush has averaged 127.4 yards per game on scrimmage plays, a total that ranks fourth in the league in that category.
Part of the reason for Bush's success is that the Lions' offensive blocking wall has posted a 53.2 percent mark in the good blocking rate metric, which gauges how often an offense gives its ball carriers good blocking (roughly defined as when the offense doesn't allow the defense to do anything to disrupt a rush attempt). The 50 percent level in GBR serves as the bar for upper-tier performance in this category, so the Lions are giving Bush and the rest of the team's ball carriers ample quality chances to gain yardage.
The Lions have improved the offensive line through a combination of attrition, moving people around and the draft. As good as Bush has been from an overall productivity perspective, he has plenty of room to improve in the good blocking yards per attempt stat, which measures how effective a ball carrier is when given good blocking. His 7.3-yard mark in this category is nearly equal to his 2012 performance (7.4, ranked tied for 16th), but this number could be even higher if Bush would stop turning potential quality gains into short gains by trying to find a home run lane on every run. It is part of the reason 18 of his good-blocking carries have netted 3 or fewer yards. If Bush can do a better job of recognizing which rushes can hit long gains and which can't and adjust his rushing approach accordingly, he could easily move his GBYPA into the 8- to 9-yard range that is more commensurate with his talent level.
Matthew Stafford is much like Bush in that he is excelling in a couple of important areas, as his 59.4 Total QBR ranks 11th in the league and his 6.87 yards per attempt on passes thrown 10 or fewer yards downfield ranks third. Stafford is also doing a fantastic job of protecting the ball, as his 0.4 percent bad decision rate (which tracks how often a quarterback makes a mental error that leads to a defensive turnover opportunity) is well below the 1.0 percent bar that is elite BDR territory.
The issue for Stafford is that his passing numbers on aerials thrown more than 10 yards downfield are terrible. His 9.05 YPA ranks 27th in that category, and his 40 percent completion rate places 29th.
Stafford's numbers on these throws are so poor in large part because Johnson has not been playing to Megatron-like levels this year (see chart), and there isn't a clear alternative to Johnson when it comes to stretching the field.
Calvin Johnson's route depth by metric, 2013
Route Depth Comp Att Yds TD Int Pen Pen Yds YPA
Short (1-10 yards) 19 27 239 4 2 0 0 8.9
Medium (11-19 yards) 5 12 98 0 0 3 23 8.1
Deep (20-29 yards) 0 7 0 0 0 1 5 0.6
Bomb (30+ yards) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0
Total 24 46 337 4 2 4 28 7.3
Vertical (11+ yards) 5 19 98 0 0 4 28 5.5
Stretch Vertical (20+ yards) 0 7 0 0 0 1 5 0.6
By contrast, Johnson posted a 7.2 short pass YPA, a 13.1 vertical YPA, a 13.5 stretch vertical YPA and a 10.3 overall YPA in 2012. His totals this year are far short of that record-setting campaign, and his injury status (questionable to start Sunday due to a knee injury) is probably a big reason why. If that makes a short-term turnaround unlikely, it's certainly possible that a fully healthy Johnson could be back to his old ways later this season.
The Lions are only two weeks away from their Week 9 bye, so if Johnson can at least partially heal up, he may be able to close the performance gap and add some more explosiveness to an already efficient passing game. And it should be noted: Detroit's loss to Green Bay happened when Johnson was out.
Overall, however, the offense can still add efficiency from its best players.
Defense
According to ESPN Stats & Information, the Lions rank in the top 10 in a number of important defensive categories, including Total QBR allowed (38.7, fourth), interception percentage (4.2 percent, sixth), third down conversion rate (28.6 percent, second) and red zone efficiency (38.9 percent, sixth).
Detroit's D is also faring quite well in GBR, as it has allowed opponents to get good run blocking on only 35.5 percent of their rushing plays. That is well below the 40 percent mark that serves as the line of demarcation for above-average performance in this metric.
The bad news on this side of the ball is the Lions rank in the bottom 10 of the league in a lot of important categories, including yards per play (6.06, 28th) and sacks per pass attempt (5.0 percent, 26th).
Detroit also places last in the league in yards allowed per rush (5.39). At first glance, this might seem odd given how strong the Lions GBR is, but this defense is allowing an insanely high 12.9-yard GBYPA. To put that number into perspective, consider that Adrian Peterson had an 11.1-yard GBYPA in his near-record-setting season last year. That means every time an opposing ball carrier does get good blocking, he is pulling off Peterson-like gains.
The good news is that this can be corrected fairly quickly through better run support by the back seven, most notably the safeties. It shouldn't take an otherworldly improvement to turn many of the rushes that are currently gains of 30 or more yards into gains of 10-15 yards. Doing that would go a long way toward moving the GBYPA mark into single-digit territory. And Peterson's long run against Detroit on his first carry of the season pushes the average up. This is an area where you would expect the Lions to improve. They have some depth up front, as well as a rookie, so they could build on their play.
Another upside for this platoon is that the high interception rate has been tallied without much assistance from bad decisions. Detroit's 0.8 percent BDR is abysmal (1.0 percent is considered well below average in this category) and is nearly a full percentage point lower than the Lions' 1.7 percent BDR in 2012. The schedule could be quite helpful here, as Detroit is slated to face a number of quarterbacks with high BDR histories, including Jay Cutler, Ben Roethlisberger, Michael Vick (if healthy) and Eli Manning.
The Lions defense hasn't been bad, but there are areas where improvement seems likely.
Special-teams luck
The Lions special teams do a number of things quite well, especially in the area of punting. Detroit ranks third in the league in yards per punt (48.9), first in net yards per punt (47.2) and eighth in opponent's net yards per punt (39.8).
Despite this, the Lions have negative-9.46 expected points added for their special-teams play this year (ranked 25th). This means that their overall production has been a net negative, in part because opponents have not missed a field goal against them. If that and the subpar kick return figures for Detroit start to trend back toward the center, it could eliminate some of the negative expected points added.
In a four-point loss to Arizona, the Cardinals went 4-for-4 on field goals and Detroit went 0-for-2. You can do the math.
Even if the Lions end up achieving only some improvement in most of the areas listed above where they currently fall short, it could do more than enough to help this team hold up against a stretch run that includes games against Cincinnati, Dallas, Chicago, Green Bay, Philadelphia and Baltimore. Even if they go just 3-3 versus these playoff contenders, it would likely be enough to vault this club to double-digit wins and a postseason berth, where the Lions would be an unwelcome foe for any NFC opponent.
Lions a legit NFC challengerDetroit is playing well but can still improve in several key areasUpdated: October 17, 2013, 1:11 PM ETBy KC Joyner | ESPN Insider Recommend18Tweet8Comments5EmailPrint
There has been a changing of the guard at the top of each NFC division after six weeks of the 2013 NFL season. While it isn't surprising to see Dallas, New Orleans and Seattle, all of whom had a 7-9 record or better in 2012, occupying the top spot in their respective divisions, it is somewhat surprising to see the Detroit Lions -- a team that won four games last season -- in first place in the NFC North with a 4-2 mark.
Good early starts don't always turn into postseason finishes, so the question regarding the Lions is whether this quality start is for real and, if it is, whether Detroit can maintain this pace for the rest of the year.
A detailed analysis of metrics and game tapes indicates the start is for real. But what's more telling is that this team has multiple paths to significant improvement. The Lions' record isn't just what makes them a contender; it's that they haven't played as well as they should. If they do, the Lions are both a strong contender to win the NFC North and a dangerous playoff team.
Offense
With all due respect to Calvin Johnson, Detroit's best offensive player this year has to be Reggie Bush. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Bush has averaged 127.4 yards per game on scrimmage plays, a total that ranks fourth in the league in that category.
Part of the reason for Bush's success is that the Lions' offensive blocking wall has posted a 53.2 percent mark in the good blocking rate metric, which gauges how often an offense gives its ball carriers good blocking (roughly defined as when the offense doesn't allow the defense to do anything to disrupt a rush attempt). The 50 percent level in GBR serves as the bar for upper-tier performance in this category, so the Lions are giving Bush and the rest of the team's ball carriers ample quality chances to gain yardage.
The Lions have improved the offensive line through a combination of attrition, moving people around and the draft. As good as Bush has been from an overall productivity perspective, he has plenty of room to improve in the good blocking yards per attempt stat, which measures how effective a ball carrier is when given good blocking. His 7.3-yard mark in this category is nearly equal to his 2012 performance (7.4, ranked tied for 16th), but this number could be even higher if Bush would stop turning potential quality gains into short gains by trying to find a home run lane on every run. It is part of the reason 18 of his good-blocking carries have netted 3 or fewer yards. If Bush can do a better job of recognizing which rushes can hit long gains and which can't and adjust his rushing approach accordingly, he could easily move his GBYPA into the 8- to 9-yard range that is more commensurate with his talent level.
Matthew Stafford is much like Bush in that he is excelling in a couple of important areas, as his 59.4 Total QBR ranks 11th in the league and his 6.87 yards per attempt on passes thrown 10 or fewer yards downfield ranks third. Stafford is also doing a fantastic job of protecting the ball, as his 0.4 percent bad decision rate (which tracks how often a quarterback makes a mental error that leads to a defensive turnover opportunity) is well below the 1.0 percent bar that is elite BDR territory.
The issue for Stafford is that his passing numbers on aerials thrown more than 10 yards downfield are terrible. His 9.05 YPA ranks 27th in that category, and his 40 percent completion rate places 29th.
Stafford's numbers on these throws are so poor in large part because Johnson has not been playing to Megatron-like levels this year (see chart), and there isn't a clear alternative to Johnson when it comes to stretching the field.
Calvin Johnson's route depth by metric, 2013
Route Depth Comp Att Yds TD Int Pen Pen Yds YPA
Short (1-10 yards) 19 27 239 4 2 0 0 8.9
Medium (11-19 yards) 5 12 98 0 0 3 23 8.1
Deep (20-29 yards) 0 7 0 0 0 1 5 0.6
Bomb (30+ yards) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0
Total 24 46 337 4 2 4 28 7.3
Vertical (11+ yards) 5 19 98 0 0 4 28 5.5
Stretch Vertical (20+ yards) 0 7 0 0 0 1 5 0.6
By contrast, Johnson posted a 7.2 short pass YPA, a 13.1 vertical YPA, a 13.5 stretch vertical YPA and a 10.3 overall YPA in 2012. His totals this year are far short of that record-setting campaign, and his injury status (questionable to start Sunday due to a knee injury) is probably a big reason why. If that makes a short-term turnaround unlikely, it's certainly possible that a fully healthy Johnson could be back to his old ways later this season.
The Lions are only two weeks away from their Week 9 bye, so if Johnson can at least partially heal up, he may be able to close the performance gap and add some more explosiveness to an already efficient passing game. And it should be noted: Detroit's loss to Green Bay happened when Johnson was out.
Overall, however, the offense can still add efficiency from its best players.
Defense
According to ESPN Stats & Information, the Lions rank in the top 10 in a number of important defensive categories, including Total QBR allowed (38.7, fourth), interception percentage (4.2 percent, sixth), third down conversion rate (28.6 percent, second) and red zone efficiency (38.9 percent, sixth).
Detroit's D is also faring quite well in GBR, as it has allowed opponents to get good run blocking on only 35.5 percent of their rushing plays. That is well below the 40 percent mark that serves as the line of demarcation for above-average performance in this metric.
The bad news on this side of the ball is the Lions rank in the bottom 10 of the league in a lot of important categories, including yards per play (6.06, 28th) and sacks per pass attempt (5.0 percent, 26th).
Detroit also places last in the league in yards allowed per rush (5.39). At first glance, this might seem odd given how strong the Lions GBR is, but this defense is allowing an insanely high 12.9-yard GBYPA. To put that number into perspective, consider that Adrian Peterson had an 11.1-yard GBYPA in his near-record-setting season last year. That means every time an opposing ball carrier does get good blocking, he is pulling off Peterson-like gains.
The good news is that this can be corrected fairly quickly through better run support by the back seven, most notably the safeties. It shouldn't take an otherworldly improvement to turn many of the rushes that are currently gains of 30 or more yards into gains of 10-15 yards. Doing that would go a long way toward moving the GBYPA mark into single-digit territory. And Peterson's long run against Detroit on his first carry of the season pushes the average up. This is an area where you would expect the Lions to improve. They have some depth up front, as well as a rookie, so they could build on their play.
Another upside for this platoon is that the high interception rate has been tallied without much assistance from bad decisions. Detroit's 0.8 percent BDR is abysmal (1.0 percent is considered well below average in this category) and is nearly a full percentage point lower than the Lions' 1.7 percent BDR in 2012. The schedule could be quite helpful here, as Detroit is slated to face a number of quarterbacks with high BDR histories, including Jay Cutler, Ben Roethlisberger, Michael Vick (if healthy) and Eli Manning.
The Lions defense hasn't been bad, but there are areas where improvement seems likely.
Special-teams luck
The Lions special teams do a number of things quite well, especially in the area of punting. Detroit ranks third in the league in yards per punt (48.9), first in net yards per punt (47.2) and eighth in opponent's net yards per punt (39.8).
Despite this, the Lions have negative-9.46 expected points added for their special-teams play this year (ranked 25th). This means that their overall production has been a net negative, in part because opponents have not missed a field goal against them. If that and the subpar kick return figures for Detroit start to trend back toward the center, it could eliminate some of the negative expected points added.
In a four-point loss to Arizona, the Cardinals went 4-for-4 on field goals and Detroit went 0-for-2. You can do the math.
Even if the Lions end up achieving only some improvement in most of the areas listed above where they currently fall short, it could do more than enough to help this team hold up against a stretch run that includes games against Cincinnati, Dallas, Chicago, Green Bay, Philadelphia and Baltimore. Even if they go just 3-3 versus these playoff contenders, it would likely be enough to vault this club to double-digit wins and a postseason berth, where the Lions would be an unwelcome foe for any NFC opponent.
