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For six contenders, D is the key.
These teams' defenses could cost them -- or earn them -- a postseason berth.
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Before the 2011 season, the St. Louis Cardinals jettisoned all-glove shortstop Brendan Ryan and brought in Ryan Theriot. Theriot proved that he could neither hit nor play shortstop well, so the Cardinals were forced to make a trade deadline deal to bring in veteran Rafael Furcal. Still a solid defensive shortstop at 33, Furcal represented an upgrade for an infield which struggled behind heavy ground-ball pitchers Jaime Garcia and Jake Westbrook.
Of course, the Cardinals made one of the more remarkable turnarounds in September history to squeak into the playoffs en route to their second World Series title this century.
While Theriot's defensive struggles nearly cost the Cardinals a shot at October, Furcal played a large part in the late-season surge. Here are six teams whose defense, good or bad, could make the difference in their playoff chances.
Teams whose defense could cost them a playoff spot
Detroit Tigers
While a lineup with Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder is intimidating, an infield featuring both hulking sluggers is far from it. In his last two seasons in Florida (2006 and '07), Cabrera played third base every day and cost the Marlins an estimated 29 runs (according to our runs saved metric) compared to an average third baseman. Around his 25th birthday, Cabrera played 14 games at third before the Tigers were forced to move him across the diamond to first base. Ever since, Cabrera has been a consistently below-average first baseman.
Four years later, an older and heavier Cabrera is going against all odds. If Cabrera can return to his 2008 form, he'd cost the Tigers 20 runs compared to an average third baseman over a full season -- equivalent to roughly two wins in the standings. More than likely, Cabrera will show some effects of age and rust at the hot corner, and his actual defensive performance could be much worse.
Furthermore, shortstop Jhonny Peralta is no defensive specialist himself and won't be able to cover for Cabrera's shortcomings. If the move isn't going well, manager Jim Leyland could move Cabrera to the DH role currently occupied by Delmon Young. However, Young would then be forced into left field, where he is a liability and a downgrade from Andy Dirks and Ryan Raburn in the field. Raburn would then play more regularly at second base, where he is a defensive liability compared to Ramon Santiago. The domino effect could be catastrophic.
Regardless of how much time Cabrera spends at third base, Fielder also represents a troublesome downgrade at first. Fielder's minus-26 defensive runs saved since 2009 ranks him ahead of only Adam Dunn and Ryan Howard as the worst defensive first baseman. Depending on how the shuffling plays out, the addition of Fielder could result in a drop of 30 or 40 runs saved from last year's defense, meaning an additional 30-40 runs allowed by Tigers fielders.
While the Tigers' pitchers' will appreciate the extra run support, they won't be so happy when ground balls continually find holes -- especially sinkerballer Rick Porcello -- and their ERAs balloon as a result.
Miami Marlins
The Marlins made a splash this offseason with big free-agent signings, but the league's worst defensive team from 2011 still has a number of glaring weaknesses. Neither Jose Reyes nor Hanley Ramirez rate well defensively at shortstop, largely due to their relative inability to make the play on the ball in the hole. Hanley will benefit from the move to third, but even when healthy, the two players will allow more than their share of hits.
While Giancarlo Stanton has been an asset in right field, Logan Morrison rated as baseball's worst left fielder (minus-26 runs saved) last season, and Emilio Bonifacio is a question mark in center. With the deep power allies of the new ballpark, the Marlins' outfield unit will be challenged on many potential extra base hits in the gaps.
These combined weaknesses on the left side of the diamond could prevent the Marlins from making the leap into contention in 2012.
Philadelphia Phillies
Injuries to Chase Utley and Ryan Howard are devastating to the Phillies' lineup, but their absence will also be felt on defense. Howard tops only Adam Dunn on the three-year defensive runs saved list at first base, but sticking Ty Wigginton and Jim Thome out there every day isn't going to be any better.
Additionally, the Phillies are going to miss Utley's athleticism and instincts in the field no matter who they stick at second base. Add these significant injuries to a defensive unit that is getting old fast, and you've got plenty of reason to worry in Philadelphia.
Once an elite shortstop, Jimmy Rollins is as sure-handed as ever, but he has lost a couple of steps going to his right. Shane Victorino has also dropped off from his Gold Glove days in center. While the pitching staff is good enough to carry the team until Utley and Howard return, any further setbacks could spell doom for the Phillies in a much more competitive NL East.
Teams whose defense could push them into October
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays have established themselves as baseball's best defensive team, and it's not even close. According to our updated defensive runs saved numbers in "The Fielding Bible: Volume III," Rays fielders were a combined 85 runs better than average, and more than 30 runs better than the second-best defense (the Diamondbacks). Without the budget to sign impact bats and arms on the free-agent market, the Rays have set the new standard for finding cheap value players, especially defensive-minded acquisitions.
Additionally, the Rays have a sophisticated positioning scheme, indicated by their motto "we catch line drives." More than any other team, the Rays have made a habit of employing a dramatic shift against heavy pull hitters, who are especially common in the AL East. In a division with the perennially contending Red Sox and Yankees and the rapidly improving Blue Jays, every little tactical edge can make a difference.
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds' defensive alignment has no weakness. The infield includes four above-average defenders: Scott Rolen, Zack Cozart, Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto. The outfield includes average defenders Ryan Ludwick and Drew Stubbs as well as an inconsistent but more-good-than-bad Jay Bruce in right field. In a division where the Cardinals and Brewers lost two of the best hitters in baseball, the Reds should find themselves right back in the thick of things.
Milwaukee Brewers
Heading into 2011, the Brewers' starting infield of Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Yuniesky Betancourt and Casey McGehee was projected to be the worst defensive unit in baseball. However, new manager Ron Roenicke embraced "the shift," and the four infielders improved a combined 56 defensive runs saved over their 2010 totals. The Brewers not only shifted against the Ryan Howards and Carlos Penas of the world, but also employed radical defensive alignments against right-handed hitters like Dan Uggla and Chris Young.
General manager Doug Melvin recently commented at the SABR Analytics Conference that the Brewers were encouraged by the results and might be even more aggressive with the shift in 2012. They'll need all the help they can get, replacing Fielder and McGehee with two more defensive liabilities in Mat Gamel and Aramis Ramirez.
