Final 3 Games for Playoff Teams

[lp4ever41]

BOTTOM LINE:
We won't waste time with scenarios that include Chicago beating GB because, well, come on. Therefore, 1 win by Detroit gets them in, unless Seattle or Arizona pull off miracles and win out (which isn't likely. They play each other in the final week, and one of them plays Cinci, the other plays San Fran, and, well, they both kinda suck, so odds aren't very high that either wins out).

Test it out here:
http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine


Detroit:
at Oakland
San Diego
at Green Bay

Dallas:
at Tampa Bay
Philadelphia
at NYG

NYG:
Washington
at NYJ (not really a road game)
Dallas

Atlanta:
Jacksonville
at New Orleans
Tampa Bay

I'd say Detroit, Chicago, Atlanta, and NYG split the next two, and Dallas wins both. If that happens, Detroit would clinch a playoff birth. In fact, 1 more win for Detroit probably locks them in. It seems hard to find a legit scenario where Detroit wins another game and doesn't make it in.

 

[tomdalton22]

Detroit:
at Oakland
San Diego
at Green Bay

Dallas:
at Tampa Bay
Philadelphia
at NYG

NYG:
Washington
at NYJ (not really a road game)
Dallas

Atlanta:
Jacksonville
at New Orleans
Tampa Bay

I'd say Detroit, Chicago, Atlanta, and NYG split the next two, and Dallas wins both. If that happens, Detroit would clinch a playoff birth. In fact, 1 more win for Detroit probably locks them in. It seems hard to find a legit scenario where Detroit wins another game and doesn't make it in.

I think Dallas or NYG will go 3-0 and the other will go 2-1. Atlanta will go 2-1.

Due to tiebreakers I think Det will get in with 9 wins. The only way they wouldn't would be if Chicago and Atl both win out and Det goes 1-2. I think this Oakland game is huge. The way SD is playing I think they will beat Det in week 16.

 

[lp4ever41]

Detroit:
at Oakland
San Diego
at Green Bay

Dallas:
at Tampa Bay
Philadelphia
at NYG

NYG:
Washington
at NYJ (not really a road game)
Dallas

Atlanta:
Jacksonville
at New Orleans
Tampa Bay

I'd say Detroit, Chicago, Atlanta, and NYG split the next two, and Dallas wins both. If that happens, Detroit would clinch a playoff birth. In fact, 1 more win for Detroit probably locks them in. It seems hard to find a legit scenario where Detroit wins another game and doesn't make it in.

I think Dallas or NYG will go 3-0 and the other will go 2-1. Atlanta will go 2-1.

Due to tiebreakers I think Det will get in with 9 wins. The only way they wouldn't would be if Chicago and Atl both win out and Det goes 1-2. I think this Oakland game is huge. The way SD is playing I think they will beat Det in week 16.

Chicago winning out is completely unreasonable though. They play GB, and this team just lost to KC and Denver. I'd be surprised if they won more than 1 game the rest of the way.

As far as I know, Atlanta holds the tiebreaker over Detroit, and Detroit holds one over Dallas. Also, Detroit is likely to win the tiebreaker vs Chicago if that situation developed due to W/L record vs like teams. Does anyone know the situation between Detroit and NYG? If Detroit owns that tiebreaker as well, then 1 win and 1 Chicago loss locks Detroit into the playoffs.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Tie breaker would be Conference record with the NYG. Detroit 6-5 but will end at 6-6. NYG are 4-6. So they best they could do would be 6-6. If that happens I'm not sure.

 

[lp4ever41]

Mitch[/color]]Tie breaker would be Conference record with the NYG. Detroit 6-5 but will end at 6-6. NYG are 4-6. So they best they could do would be 6-6. If that happens I'm not sure.

Thats good news. This means that 1 Detroit win (plus 1 Chicago loss, which is certain against GB) locks Detroit into the playoffs.

Consider:
Detroit finishes 9-7.
Atlanta gets to 10 or 11 wins. They get in.
Chicago wins 2 of their last 3 to finish 9-7.
Dallas and NYG both win their next two and sit at 9-6 in their final game.

If that happens, Detroit still owns the tiebreaker over Chicago, so the Bears are out. So, if NYG wins, Dallas finishes 9-7 and Detroit gets the final playoff spot due to head-to-head. If Dallas wins, NYG finish 9-7, but 5-7 in the NFC, so Detroit, at 6-6 in the conference, gets that final playoff spot.

In conclusion, 1 win from Detroit basically clinches a spot

 

[tsmith7559]

Mitch[/color]]Tie breaker would be Conference record with the NYG. Detroit 6-5 but will end at 6-6. NYG are 4-6. So they best they could do would be 6-6. If that happens I'm not sure.

Thats good news. This means that 1 Detroit win (plus 1 Chicago loss, which is certain against GB) locks Detroit into the playoffs.

Consider:
Detroit finishes 9-7.
Atlanta gets to 10 or 11 wins. They get in.
Chicago wins 2 of their last 3 to finish 9-7.
Dallas and NYG both win their next two and sit at 9-6 in their final game.

If that happens, Detroit still owns the tiebreaker over Chicago, so the Bears are out. So, if NYG wins, Dallas finishes 9-7 and Detroit gets the final playoff spot due to head-to-head. If Dallas wins, NYG finish 9-7, but 5-7 in the NFC, so Detroit, at 6-6 in the conference, gets that final playoff spot.

In conclusion, 1 win from Detroit basically clinches a spot

we lose to Chicago if they tie us (9-7) and they beat Minny. They hold the conference tiebreaker over us. We will tie in division(3-3), they would be 7-5 in the conference

 

[tsmith7559]

bottom line, If we tie Chicago they need to lose at Minny

 

[Mitchrapp]

It helps big time that Dallas and NYG play in week 17. Because one will have 9 wins at most and we'd have tiebreaker over both. The only kink could be the Bears beating both Seattle and Minny. Assuming we win one more game.

 

[lp4ever41]

Thats good news. This means that 1 Detroit win (plus 1 Chicago loss, which is certain against GB) locks Detroit into the playoffs.

Consider:
Detroit finishes 9-7.
Atlanta gets to 10 or 11 wins. They get in.
Chicago wins 2 of their last 3 to finish 9-7.
Dallas and NYG both win their next two and sit at 9-6 in their final game.

If that happens, Detroit still owns the tiebreaker over Chicago, so the Bears are out. So, if NYG wins, Dallas finishes 9-7 and Detroit gets the final playoff spot due to head-to-head. If Dallas wins, NYG finish 9-7, but 5-7 in the NFC, so Detroit, at 6-6 in the conference, gets that final playoff spot.

In conclusion, 1 win from Detroit basically clinches a spot

we lose to Chicago if they tie us (9-7) and they beat Minny. They hold the conference tiebreaker over us. We will tie in division(3-3), they would be 7-5 in the conference

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

Tiebreaker is actually W/L in common games
Chicago is 5-5, Detroit is 6-3. 1 win gives Detroit 7 wins, meaning Chicago would have to defeat GB to get to 7.

Detroit and NYG are both 1-3 vs similar opponents (Dallas, San Fran, GB, NO). For this tiebreaker to matter, NYG would have to lose to Dallas, making them 1-4, so Detroit wins that.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Division games go before common games. And Us and NYG, it is conference. Not sure you read that.

 

[tsmith7559]

^^^^YEP^^^^^^^ division records come first when applying ties for teams in same division.

 

[lp4ever41]

Oops, was looking at division, not wild card

 

[tsmith7559]

Chicago is falling apart worse than a Bounty dish rag...lets hope it continues with Seattle

 

[Mitchrapp]

Mitch[/color]]Division games go before common games. And Us and NYG, it is conference. Not sure you read that.

Why does that matter? Detroit, NYG, and Chicago are all 3-3 in the division in this scenario.

Division record, Detroit vs Chicago first. Then whoever wins then its vs Dallas. Assuming all 3 tie. And if Detroit and Chicago have same record it goes to common then vs. Dallas. You determine the division team first.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Detroit wins 1 more and Dallas/NYG doesn't matter, bottom line. So Detroit and Chicago fight for last spot. Both play GB and their other two are easier but with Hanie who knows.

 

[lp4ever41]

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in conference games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss

If Detroit, Chicago, and an NFC East team are all tied, division tiebreaker is used between Chicago and Detroit, eliminating Chicago since they're tied head-to-head and division, so #3, similar games, pushes Detroit ahead.

Against Dallas, Detroit obviously gets in with head-to-head. Against NYG, it goes to conference record, and as stated in a post above, we're assuming NYG beat Wash and lose to Dallas, so Detroit ends with a better W/L and gets in.

If I'm reading that right, 1 Detroit win + 1 Chicago loss = Detroit in playoffs

 

[Mitchrapp]

Didn't I just post that, twice

 

[lp4ever41]

Mitch[/color]]

Why does that matter? Detroit, NYG, and Chicago are all 3-3 in the division in this scenario.

Division record, Detroit vs Chicago first. Then whoever wins then its vs Dallas. Assuming all 3 tie. And if Detroit and Chicago have same record it goes to common then vs. Dallas. You determine the division team first.

No, its not simply division record. Its the entire division tiebreaker.

"Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants."

So, either Detroit or Chicago must be eliminated from the comparison before moving on. When looking at the division tiebreaker, Detroit wins over Chicago based on W/L in similar games (#3)

 

[lp4ever41]

Mitch[/color]]

Division record, Detroit vs Chicago first. Then whoever wins then its vs Dallas. Assuming all 3 tie. And if Detroit and Chicago have same record it goes to common then vs. Dallas. You determine the division team first.

No, its not simply division record. Its the entire division tiebreaker.

"Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants."

So, either Detroit or Chicago must be eliminated from the comparison before moving on. When looking at the division tiebreaker, Detroit wins over Chicago based on W/L in similar games (#3)

Mitch, your post seemed a little confusing at first but I think maybe you were saying the same thing?

 

[Mitchrapp]

I just said that. It be who has the best division record between Chicago and Detroit. Whoever does will then get who has the best conference record between them and Dallas.