football outsiders has us sub .500

[mhughes0021]

just waiting for the kool aid drinkin homers to ruin this thread....


Football Outsiders has Detroit Lions with under-.500 2015 record



Michael Rothstein, ESPN Staff Writer


One of the potential perils of being a franchise with a successful season is there's a good chance your schedule the following year will be more difficult than the one that led to the winning season in the first place.

Typically for the Detroit Lions, this hasn't been an issue. In 2015, it could be. When the schedule first came out, the Lions were highlighted as a team with many marquee matchups, including prime-time games against Seattle, Denver and New Orleans.

According to Football Outsiders, the Lions have the fourth-toughest schedule in the NFL this season. It's why the group has the Lions with a 7-9 projected record for 2015Insider, a four-game down-swing from last season.

I picked the Lions to be 8-8 when I saw the schedule come out last month, in part because of that difficult schedule and since the franchise, on paper, does not look like a better team than the one it put together last season.

The defense lost a multitude of talent on the line (Ndamukong Suh, Nick Fairley, C.J. Mosley) and while they mitigated some of that loss by trading for Haloti Ngata, signing Tyrunn Walker and drafting Gabe Wright, this defense without Suh is not going to be as good as a defense with Suh.

The Lions spent a lot of draft capital attempting to fix the offensive line and run game with two linemen drafted (Laken Tomlinson, Corey Robinson) along with a running back (Ameer Abdullah) and fullback (Michael Burton).

So a lot of questions remain with this franchise as they enter offseason workouts, but it's a fair enough reason for most projections to have Detroit backsliding to around .500.

There's one other thing to consider and it is something the Lions have been trying to dig out of for years. History does not give the Lions a good chance of being over .500 this season. The Lions haven't had back-to-back winning seasons since the middle of the Barry Sanders era from 1993 to 1995. Detroit hasn't had back-to-back .500-or-better seasons since 1999 and 2000, when the Lions went 8-8 and 9-7.

Since the NFL-AFL merger, the Lions have won 10 or more games in a season six times, including last season. Three of those times, the Lions lost 10 or more games the following season.

So that doesn't bode well for Detroit if you believe history to be a guide.

 

[tonyballs]

Our defense isn't going to be AS good without Suh?? That's Pulitzer Prize winning shit right there!! I wonder where he gets his info from? Those are some strong sources.

On that note....10-6. Not that far off from 8-8

 

[inkfreq]

Our defense isn't going to be AS good without Suh?? That's Pulitzer Prize winning shit right there!! I wonder where he gets his info from? Those are some strong sources.

On that note....10-6. Not that far off from 8-8

I think it's actually unfair to say the defense won't be as good without Suh. It won't be as good, but it won't be because we lost Suh.

Yes, the big guy is irreplaceable. But he was a piece to a puzzle, and it's the job of a good D-Coordinator to scheme according to your strengths. Austin was able to use Suh is some really powerful ways, but that doesn't mean he can't use other good players just as well, and to scheme his way into a top defense.

Suh was in Detroit for 5 years. and ONE of those years we had a top 5 defense. Suh is not an instant formula for "just add water and win". He didn't lead us to a top defense in 80% of his seasons here.

He was an easier way to a top D, but not the only way, and this club isn't going to fall flat on it's face because of who we're missing. We might fall flat on our face because we didn't plan well enough, or didn't replace him well enough, but it won't be automatic regression because he's not here.

 

[boogerlovejoy]

Unlike most of those years......I think the Lions have more ways to improve in 2015 than they do to fall back.

The defense will fall back a bit.....not a suprise.....but is still going to be a good unit.

The offense certainly has MANY ways to improve. The draft should provide a big boost on the ground......which is the best way to open up the passing game (not drafting TE's). Ebron in his 2nd year SHOULD improve a bit, and the O-line has more talent that it did a year ago.

Special teams cost us games last year. It's not an opinion....its a fact. We have solidified those areas and with Abdullah.....might have a plus return unit.

The schedule is almost completely meaningless to me. Every year in the NFL.....a number of teams go from first to worst.....worst to first.....ok to bad......ect...ect...ect...

Luck in who we play that falls back from grace will play a role in our record.....but good teams find a way to get it done regardless of who they play.

@Seattle and @GB are the only games I see as guaranteed L's.....the other 14 are available to win.

 

[inkfreq]

Unlike most of those years......I think the Lions have more ways to improve in 2016 than they do to fall back.

The defense will fall back a bit.....not a suprise.....but is still going to be a good unit.

The offense certainly has MANY ways to improve. The draft should provide a big boost on the ground......which is the best way to open up the passing game (not drafting TE's). Ebron in his 2nd year SHOULD improve a bit, and the O-line has more talent that it did a year ago.

Special teams cost us games last year. It's not an opinion....its a fact. We have solidified those areas and with Abdullah.....might have a plus return unit.

The schedule is almost completely meaningless to me. Every year in the NFL.....a number of teams go from first to worst.....worst to first.....ok to bad......ect...ect...ect...

Luck in who we play that falls back from grace will play a role in our record.....but good teams find a way to get it done regardless of who they play.

@Seattle and @GB are the only games I see as guaranteed L's.....the other 14 are available to win.

I'm assuming you meant 2015, not 2016?

I'd sure love to see what we have this season before we start talking about the following one, but I am guessing you do too, and it was a typo.

 

[boogerlovejoy]

I'm assuming you meant 2015, not 2016?

I'd sure love to see what we have this season before we start talking about the following one, but I am guessing you do too, and it was a typo.

Yes, fixed.

I'm not smart.

 

[zyxt9]

1. Preseason schedule strength means absolutely nothing.
2. Injuries are unknown, and those can help or hurt teams, even one's with depth.
3. History shows Lions won't win 10 games next year. Any number of factors could lead to that, even a 'curse' can be attributed if all else fails to explain it.
4. Preseason schedule strength means absolutely nothing. Wait, what? Yes, I restated this point as it is the most important.

 

[tonyballs]

I think it's actually unfair to say the defense won't be as good without Suh. It won't be as good, but it won't be because we lost Suh.

Yes, the big guy is irreplaceable. But he was a piece to a puzzle, and it's the job of a good D-Coordinator to scheme according to your strengths. Austin was able to use Suh is some really powerful ways, but that doesn't mean he can't use other good players just as well, and to scheme his way into a top defense.

Suh was in Detroit for 5 years. and ONE of those years we had a top 5 defense. Suh is not an instant formula for "just add water and win". He didn't lead us to a top defense in 80% of his seasons here.

He was an easier way to a top D, but not the only way, and this club isn't going to fall flat on it's face because of who we're missing. We might fall flat on our face because we didn't plan well enough, or didn't replace him well enough, but it won't be automatic regression because he's not here.

I'm just assuming theres a bit of a drop off. I fully trust Austin to bring the pain. We had a championship D last year. It just seems like a mirage being a Lions fan. Feel me? Lol

 

[zyxt9]

Very true Tony. When they have an abnormal year like last year, it makes one wonder whether it was really good or a happy product of circumstances (injuries to opponents, lucky bounces, etc.).

No one is saying they have to be top 5 again to verify they were truly a good team D, but drop out of top 10 and it will indicate it was an anomaly.

Downside to a second straight top 5 D is that Austin will then be offered tons to be a HC. Will his replacement be abke to maintain the pain?

 

[mhughes0021]

we actually got to the qb last year. Most of that revolved around suh. And if it wasn't suh it was ansah because he had 1 v 1 all year because of suh. Im sure there will be some drop off. Not sure how much yet because honestly ive never seen Ngata in a 4-3. But if he cant get to the qb even a little bit at this point in his career I don't see the likes of Jason jones picking up the slack. Remember, the secondary last year played much better than I think anyone anticipated.....most of that was due to how fast the qb had to get the ball out. We could see a big drop off from their play as well if the qb has all day to throw.

 

[tonyballs]

Very true Tony. When they have an abnormal year like last year, it makes one wonder whether it was really good or a happy product of circumstances (injuries to opponents, lucky bounces, etc.).

No one is saying they have to be top 5 again to verify they were truly a good team D, but drop out of top 10 and it will indicate it was an anomaly.

Downside to a second straight top 5 D is that Austin will then be offered tons to be a HC. Will his replacement be abke to maintain the pain?

They were a legit D last year. Obviously they were exploited last year in a few areas, but overall they were very good. I expect them to be a top ten D this year. Still good enough to win.

If/when Austin leaves, they have some guys under him to take over for promotion. Not too worried about that situation just yet.

 

[tonyballs]

we actually got to the qb last year. Most of that revolved around suh. And if it wasn't suh it was ansah because he had 1 v 1 all year because of suh. Im sure there will be some drop off. Not sure how much yet because honestly ive never seen Ngata in a 4-3. But if he cant get to the qb even a little bit at this point in his career I don't see the likes of Jason jones picking up the slack. Remember, the secondary last year played much better than I think anyone anticipated.....most of that was due to how fast the qb had to get the ball out. We could see a big drop off from their play as well if the qb has all day to throw.

Jason Jones picking up the slack? You have already put it in your head that they have failed..lol. Why does that not surprise me? It doesn't. Jones isn't picking up the slack for shit. Ngata takes on the doubles and players like Ansah, Webster, Walker and Wright will be our sack guys. Throw in pass-rushers like KVN and they should be fine. Even players like Taylor can contribute too. Thinking Jones is going to excel in anything has you set up for failure. He's a run-stuffer...that's all.

 

[mhughes0021]

Jason Jones picking up the slack? You have already put it in your head that they have failed..lol. Why does that not surprise me? It doesn't. Jones isn't picking up the slack for shit. Ngata takes on the doubles and players like Ansah, Webster, Walker and Wright will be our sack guys. Throw in pass-rushers like KVN and they should be fine. Even players like Taylor can contribute too. Thinking Jones is going to excel in anything has you set up for failure. He's a run-stuffer...that's all.

thats what I said tony....I literally said "I don't see Jason jones picking up the slack." why is it even when you say the same thing as me you have to make it sound like you are arguing lmao. then you wonder why I call you emo boy...

 

[tonyballs]

thats what I said tony....I literally said "I don't see Jason jones picking up the slack." why is it even when you say the same thing as me you have to make it sound like you are arguing lmao. then you wonder why I call you emo boy...

Do you even know wtf an emo is? I'm the complete opposite of emo, buddy lol.

All I was pointing out is, why even put Jones in the conversation? He is what he is. He has no ceiling or floor. He really won't improve or drop off. Out of all the DLinemen on this team, why talk about Jones? I expect nothing from him. I hope Taylor or Webster steal the job from him. Maybe I should have made myself more clear....sorry.

 

[cheeno]

Given the tough home slate and our record on the road against winning teams I have to agree with PFF. Returning to the playoffs will be a pleasant surprise and reinforce just how bad the previous staff was. In my assessment the D will be worse unless there really is some suprise superstars in completely unproven talent (remember when I said don't bank on Taylor's 1.5 tackles when he was hyped to be a gamechanger? Looks like that koolaid is still cold). The oline is hanging by a thread despite Tonys depth thread (he must have just read and analyzed "A Separate Peace" he was gay for Finny we get it!) counting on major contributions by a rookie, seventh rounders, UDFAs, a guy coming off a year with multiple severe injuries, and multiple cast off ManRam.

 

[Mitchrapp]

If FO says sub .500 they probably win 13 games.

 

[mhughes0021]

Given the tough home slate and our record on the road against winning teams I have to agree with PFF. Returning to the playoffs will be a pleasant surprise and reinforce just how bad the previous staff was. In my assessment the D will be worse unless there really is some suprise superstars in completely unproven talent (remember when I said don't bank on Taylor's 1.5 tackles when he was hyped to be a gamechanger? Looks like that koolaid is still cold). The oline is hanging by a thread despite Tonys depth thread (he must have just read and analyzed "A Separate Peace" he was gay for Finny we get it!) counting on major contributions by a rookie, seventh rounders, UDFAs, a guy coming off a year with multiple severe injuries, and multiple cast off ManRam.

I have no idea how this team does.

Offense

Offensive line worries me. Weve seen before how a weak C can really make the entire line implode. Im wondering if manram was brought here to start there and atleast try to get some veteran leadership from that spot.

If the oline comes together, then Abdullah could be huge. Hes a little small and has had some injury history. But I love how he runs....ive said it before....his running style reminds me of ladanian Tomlinson but hes an even better receiving threat than LT was. The oline will make or break him though....he has the talent to be successful and take some pressure off Stafford.

I think weve all said it...but its yet to be seen....Lombardi is in his 2nd year. He knows the personel now and knows some of the things that didn't work so much. Can he put together a better plan than we had last year? Can he get anything out of Ebron? The offense should improve but its going to depend largely on if Lombardi is worth a shit or not. Hes got weapons all over the damn place....it shouldn't be as hard as it looked last year to get them the ball.

Defense

After I stated above the offense should be better....I just cant expect a defense that was comparable to last years. I didn't expect last years defense to be as good as last years lol. If Austin pulls this off again hes a miracle worker cause yes....this time he'll be working wonders without Suh.

Dline was once our strength and now filled with unprovens. On paper Ngata and Ansah are solid....we will need a ton out of them. Webster/Taylor need to step up and fill in the shoes George Johnson left. For Tonys sake...I wont mention Jason Jones lol

Corners...imo we have a lot of average corners on this team. Slay and Mathis did what they had to do behind a dline that pressured the qb very well last year. Im not so sure they hold up as well if this dline cant pressure the qb as much as last years version did. while we did have injuries to the depth in this group we were very lucky that slay or mathis didn't miss any time cause we had garbage behind them. Lawson and Bentley are coming of major injuries and other than that we have Amari Spievey back.

Safety great duo if they both can stay on the field.

LB deepest and probably most talented part of our team.

I have more concerns over depth on this team than most.....I see us as this HUGE castle...but the castle is made out of sheet paper and any little santa ana wind or snow storm or injury can knock the entire thing down.

Schedule
I agree its very difficult to say anything about SoS prior to the season since opinions on teams change so much from one year to the next. If we can start 5-3 I think we can pull of 9-7 that's assuming some injury to major starting roles. If we can stay healthy for the most part I think 11 wins isn't out of the question. So ill stick with 9 wins for now. Were away at SEA and NO...all very tough places to play on the road. That hurts, but luckily we get KC in Europe and not at their place...that's a winnable toss up game. I do have us shutting out MIN and CHI but losing both to GB. That said that ARI/CHI/MIN home stretch is a must win early in the season or it will be difficult to get over .500 imo.

1 Sun, Sep 13 @
San Diego W

2 Sun, Sep 20 @
Minnesota W

3 Sun, Sep 27 vs
Denver L

4 Mon, Oct 5 @
Seattle L


5 Sun, Oct 11 vs
Arizona W

6 Sun, Oct 18 vs
Chicago W

7 Sun, Oct 25 vs
Minnesota W

8 Sun, Nov 1 @
Kansas City L

9 BYE WEEK

10 Sun, Nov 15 @
Green Bay L

11 Sun, Nov 22 vs
Oakland W

12 Thu, Nov 26 vs
Philadelphia L

13 Thu, Dec 3 vs
Green Bay L

14 Sun, Dec 13 @
St. Louis W

15 Mon, Dec 21 @
New Orleans L

16 Sun, Dec 27 vs
San Francisco W

17
Chicago W

 

[cheeno]

ManRam and his $3M was brought into start, Swanson will compete but day one Manny is penciled in at the starting C spot, basically this was a way to move on from Dom and his ankle stomping ways without moving on from Dom.

I know this isn't the depth thread but please explain our depth based on actual statistical play and not complete hope and hearsay. This team has more question marks than a game of Mario Bros.

 

[zyxt9]

Remember the @KC game is actually in London and Green Bay does not have benefit of Bye week prior to @Lambeau. Those two could be wins despite initial reaction to mark them as losses. I'm actually liking their chances in thise two relative to most fans.

 

[tomdalton22]

Remember the @KC game is actually in London and Green Bay does not have benefit of Bye week prior to @Lambeau. Those two could be wins despite initial reaction to mark them as losses. I'm actually liking their chances in thise two relative to most fans.

The game @ Lambo is a loss to me every year until proven otherwise. KC in London is actually a huge favor to the Lions since Arrowhead is such a tough place to play. The NFL must give these home teams a shit ton of cash to play a home game in Europe!