Free Agent Targets

[kalinecountry]

http://www.blessyouboys.com/2013/11...fielder-jacoby-ellsbury--2013-mlb-free-agency
Tigers rumors: Detroit shows interest in free agent center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury.
from bybtb

 

[spockmaster]

http://www.blessyouboys.com/2013/11...fielder-jacoby-ellsbury--2013-mlb-free-agency
Tigers rumors: Detroit shows interest in free agent center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury.
from bybtb

i really fuckin hope not. im gonna be so mad if we sign him.

 

[Thundercats]

Okay. Why?

Because it's not exactly what he uses.

 

[Thundercats]

BTW, if we're going after Choo or Ellsbury and they both cost the same, I'd rather have Ellsbury. Championship experience and the fact he could make a killing at COPA. He could leg out 20+ triples here. Not to mention that he could steal 50 or more bags, this being in scoring position most of the time he gets on base, which is a high amount. Has solid power as well.

 

[turok]

http://www.blessyouboys.com/2013/11...fielder-jacoby-ellsbury--2013-mlb-free-agency
Tigers rumors: Detroit shows interest in free agent center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury.
from bybtb

Scott Boras told the Boston Globe back in late October that he had already received 11 calls from GMs about the 30-year-old Ellsbury, who batted .298/.355/.426 with 52 stolen bases in 2013.

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/mlb/4207/jacoby-ellsbury?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

 

[sggatecl]

Putting A-Jax in the 8 spot would make me so happy.

 

[Rebbiv]

Because it's not exactly what he uses.

That's right. For instance, BAVG and/or OPP BAVG are not predictive in nature. Then if we are comparing team stats, how do we treat teams that play in pitcher parks (OAK, SEA, etc)?

Bottom line the 2013 Detroit Tigers were not the offensive juggernaut many believe. It was done with smoke and mirrors. If Team A, hypothetically, scores 50 runs in 10 games, but three were by 10 runs, two were shutouts, that leaves 20 runs in 5 games (4.0 R/G). Now, Team B also scores 50 runs in 10 games, but does not score 10 or runs in a game, and only gets shutout once, then it is 50 runs in 9 games (5.6 R/G). Which one is the consistent offense? If that trend continued all season long, both teams would finish 1 and 2 in offense. But that is generally only due to counting stats.

I am not the best at stats, but all my research (I have been doing baseball stats for about 40 years) refutes the mantra "pitching and defense" wins in the playoffs.

If you have a Jekyll and Hyde offense, was it the offense that made you lose? Or was it the opposing pitching? People who believe in pitching and defense will say pitching. And in some cases, it would be hard to argue.

 

[Rebbiv]

BTW, if we're going after Choo or Ellsbury and they both cost the same, I'd rather have Ellsbury. Championship experience and the fact he could make a killing at COPA. He could leg out 20+ triples here. Not to mention that he could steal 50 or more bags, this being in scoring position most of the time he gets on base, which is a high amount. Has solid power as well.

20+ Triples? Yeah right, a lot has to happen to have 20+ triples. In 2007, when Granders had 23, 13 came on the road. He had 13 the next year and at no other time was he more than 10 Triples.

Rollins also had 20 Triples in 2007 and hasn't had more than 9 since.

AL Leaders

2013 - Gardner 10

2012 - A. Jackson 10

2011 - A. Jackson 11

2010 - Crawford 13

2009 - Ellsbury, Span 10

2008 - Granderson 13

2007 - Granderson 23

2006 - Crawford 16

2005 - Crawford 15

2004 - Crawford 19


I wouldn't evaluate Ellsbury any faster than Crawford. And BTW, Tropicana is as much of a Triples park as Comerica.

 

[byco42]

That's right. For instance, BAVG and/or OPP BAVG are not predictive in nature. Then if we are comparing team stats, how do we treat teams that play in pitcher parks (OAK, SEA, etc)?

Bottom line the 2013 Detroit Tigers were not the offensive juggernaut many believe. It was done with smoke and mirrors. If Team A, hypothetically, scores 50 runs in 10 games, but three were by 10 runs, two were shutouts, that leaves 20 runs in 5 games (4.0 R/G). Now, Team B also scores 50 runs in 10 games, but does not score 10 or runs in a game, and only gets shutout once, then it is 50 runs in 9 games (5.6 R/G). Which one is the consistent offense? If that trend continued all season long, both teams would finish 1 and 2 in offense. But that is generally only due to counting stats.

I am not the best at stats, but all my research (I have been doing baseball stats for about 40 years) refutes the mantra "pitching and defense" wins in the playoffs.

If you have a Jekyll and Hyde offense, was it the offense that made you lose? Or was it the opposing pitching? People who believe in pitching and defense will say pitching. And in some cases, it would be hard to argue.

I didn't make these predictors up. Baseball Prospectus did, so your beef is with that organization. And they are not even "predictors" but correlations of playoff success. What has happened, not what will happen.

 

[Rebbiv]

I didn't make these predictors up. Baseball Prospectus did, so your beef is with that organization. And they are not even "predictors" but correlations of playoff success. What has happened, not what will happen.

Understood. But just because a website, Bill James or Peter Gammons (just examples) cites something or presents something does not make it fact.

"ESPN stated the team that scores the most runs wins."

Just today, we find out that the unemployment numbers were manipulated/falsified during the late part of the 2012 Elections.

 

[byco42]

Understood. But just because a website, Bill James or Peter Gammons (just examples) cites something or presents something does not make it fact.

"ESPN stated the team that scores the most runs wins."

Just today, we find out that the unemployment numbers were manipulated/falsified during the late part of the 2012 Elections.

This was pretty comprehensive research I read a while back that was compelling. Basically, if you can field, strike hitters out and pitch out of leveraged situations (which are mostly in innings 6, 7 and 8), you win championships. I don't think it was doctored or the data rigged to reach that conclusion.

 

[tomdalton22]

This was pretty comprehensive research I read a while back that was compelling. Basically, if you can field, strike hitters out and pitch out of leveraged situations (which are mostly in innings 6, 7 and 8), you win championships. I don't think it was doctored or the data rigged to reach that conclusion.

The Tigers are only 1 for 3 (strike out hitters). They can fix the 6,7 & 8th inning problem but the fielding problem is not going to go away.

 

[byco42]

The Tigers are only 1 for 3 (strike out hitters). They can fix the 6,7 & 8th inning problem but the fielding problem is not going to go away.

There were 180 teams that made the post season from 1972-2005.

Of the top 10 teams with the highest average composite rankings from 1972-2005 in these metrics (WXRL, FRAA and K Rate), 7 won the WS, two lost in the WS and one lost in the NLCS.

EX: The '84 Tigers were ranked #5 in the Top 10.

Composite ranking for the '84 Tigers:
Closer 1, FRAA 63, K Rate 51, average of 38.3
(79 O's were #1 with a 29.3 avg composite ranking)

Of the bottom ten teams (ranked 171-180), four lost in the LDS and six lost in the LCS.

 

[mbradley]

There were 180 teams that made the post season from 1972-2005.

Of the top 10 teams with the highest average composite rankings from 1972-2005 in these metrics (WXRL, FRAA and K Rate), 7 won the WS, two lost in the WS and one lost in the NLCS.

EX: The '84 Tigers were ranked #5 in the Top 10.

Composite ranking for the '84 Tigers:
Closer 1, FRAA 63, K Rate 51, average of 38.3
(79 O's were #1 with a 29.3 avg composite ranking)

Of the bottom ten teams (ranked 171-180), four lost in the LDS and six lost in the LCS.

http://www.wusfeetlinks.com/ubbcgi/...topic;f=19;t=000309+&cd=3&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us

WXRL is a counting stat and not a rate stat. FRAA is just a different defensive rate stat, similar to UZR/150 or DRS. They are only found at Baseball Prospectus and requires a paid account to get historical data or do your own searches. Is K Rate for the offense or pitching? And why would that be predictive of winning a world series?

So you have three stats (a relief stat, a fielding stat and a pitching stat?)

 

[byco42]

http://www.wusfeetlinks.com/ubbcgi/...topic;f=19;t=000309+&cd=3&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us

WXRL is a counting stat and not a rate stat. FRAA is just a different defensive rate stat, similar to UZR/150 or DRS. They are only found at Baseball Prospectus and requires a paid account to get historical data or do your own searches. Is K Rate for the offense or pitching? And why would that be predictive of winning a world series?

So you have three stats (a relief stat, a fielding stat and a pitching stat?)

K rate is obviously for pitching. I know WXRL is a counting stat. 2.7 of above replacement level is the demarcation line. FRAA focuses on run prevention, which is critical to playoff success.

"I" don't "have" these stats; I read about them and others in a book. I got the book at the public library. The guy who wrote the chapter on what we've been talking about is Nate Silver.

The stats are not "predictive;" they are correlations. They already transpired.
Read the book and find the answers to the remaining questions you ask. And your link is busted.

 

[Sbee]

K rate is obviously for pitching. I know WRXL is a counting stat. 2.7 of above replacement level is the demarcation line. FRAA focuses on run prevention, which is critical to playoff success.

"I" don't "have" these stats; I read about them and others in a book. I got the book at the public library. The guy who wrote the chapter on what we've been talking about is Nate Silver.

Read the book and find the answers to the remaining questions you ask. And your link is busted.

great read, also, in Silvers new book, the signal and the noise he gets into some advanced stats.