Game 117 Tigers vs. mariners August 13, 2019

[Mitchrapp]

12 of his 25 starts have been quality, 7 of his first 8. Meaning, 5 of his last 17 have been quality.

Yeah? Doesn't mean he won't be better next season or the year after. So I'm not sure why you're posting this we all know it.

 

[tomdalton22]

12 of his 25 starts have been quality, 7 of his first 8. Meaning, 5 of his last 17 have been quality.

maybe he just runs out of gas. With his K rate, maybe he could be a lights out lefty reliever?

 

[Rebbiv]

Yeah? Doesn't mean he won't be better next season or the year after. So I'm not sure why you're posting this we all know it.

Not many believe what you just posted. Aside from short periods, he has never indicated he could put together a strong season. His value was at it's peak before the beginning of July, after a unbelievable start to the season. Al Avila was asking for Gleyber Torres in exchange at that time.

 

[dale675]

Even if Boyd starts off next year the same way he did this year, people will point to this season as it being a fluke. Not denying the increase and K's and low walk rate. But still. When you give up that many runs, you are not going to get the haul some people think you will get. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think his trade value will ever be higher than what it was in early July. I feel like the asking price was so high, AA scared teams away before any offers could be put together. I can only imagine what DD could have got for him. Lol. Dude could sell a blind man reading glasses.

 

[byco42]

Boyd's last-three-year stats have been steadily mediocre. He's lowered his BB rate this season.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Not many believe what you just posted. Aside from short periods, he has never indicated he could put together a strong season. His value was at it's peak before the beginning of July, after a unbelievable start to the season. Al Avila was asking for Gleyber Torres in exchange at that time.

Its baseball things happen. Even from bad to good after years. It happens. Not saying it will and don't come back with your educated guess thing. You don't have a crystal ball. There's always a chance even if it's a low chance.

 

[gotime909]

A huge key to a rebuild is knowing when to maximize value. It's also important to be realistic on your goods. I get setting the bar high, but I think Avila set the bar at a level that nobody even bothered to contact him about trading for Boyd.

 

[Rebbiv]

Its baseball things happen. Even from bad to good after years. It happens. Not saying it will and don't come back with your educated guess thing. You don't have a crystal ball. There's always a chance even if it's a low chance.

Zimmermann could also have a great year based on your premise that things happen. Hell, Mike Pelfrey might have a comeback left in him.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Zimmermann could also have a great year based on your premise that things happen. Hell, Mike Pelfrey might have a comeback left in him.

No but they could have better years. Never said Boyd would be a stud. Wouldn't be a huge surprise that Zimmerman beats this year. What else you got?

 

[Mitchrapp]

A huge key to a rebuild is knowing when to maximize value. It's also important to be realistic on your goods. I get setting the bar high, but I think Avila set the bar at a level that nobody even bothered to contact him about trading for Boyd.

Would you be happy if we got someone no better than Boyd back in a trade? Someone younger that 4 years from now we realize he's Boyd 2.0? And that's aiming high. What does that do for us? Absolutely nothing.

 

[tomdalton22]

Would you be happy if we got someone no better than Boyd back in a trade? Someone younger that 4 years from now we realize he's Boyd 2.0? And that's aiming high. What does that do for us? Absolutely nothing.

If you get someone just like Boyd back, and he's 4 years younger & 4 years earlier in terms of control, I would think that would be a good thing.

 

[Mitchrapp]

If you get someone just like Boyd back, and he's 4 years younger & 4 years earlier in terms of control, I would think that would be a good thing.

But how does that help the team outside saving very little money? The idea sounds fine but some here seem to sour on Boyd and basically say he's not all that good so how does another Boyd make us better? It just means when he's pitched a couple seasons in the pros we try to trade him again.. Though honestly do you expect us to get someone back as good as Boyd? Whether it's Avila, Dumbroswski we've traded some very good players and basically got nothing back.

 

[tomdalton22]

But how does that help the team outside saving very little money? The idea sounds fine but some here seem to sour on Boyd and basically say he's not all that good so how does another Boyd make us better? It just means when he's pitched a couple seasons in the pros we try to trade him again.. Though honestly do you expect us to get someone back as good as Boyd? Whether it's Avila, Dumbroswski we've traded some very good players and basically got nothing back.

I think it has to do with where the team is and how someone fits into the timeline of competing and what the system needs. I think we can all agree that the earliest the Tigers will even flirt with .500 is 2021. At that time Boyd will be 30 and in year 3 of arbitration. With modest raises, he will probably be making $8M per year. If you get the "new and younger" Boyd, and he's a position player, he wouldn't even be arbitration eligible in 4 years. Now, since the Tigers have what would seem to be a glut of pitchers in the system, a guy like the real Boyd should be expendable.

So, trading Boyd for a player similar in talent, but a position player, would certainly be better 4 years down the road....financially and in terms of helping the Tigers win.

 

[Rebbiv]

No but they could have better years. Never said Boyd would be a stud. Wouldn't be a huge surprise that Zimmerman beats this year. What else you got?

You are still missing the argument. Boyd's value could not get any higher (nor could Zimmerman's get lower) and Avila missed his chance.



Small samples during one year, or even fluctuations from one year to another, exists. For years, people were expecting Darin Erstad to hit .355 BAVG again. He never hit .300 before then, nor did he do it afterwards. Did anyone mean at some point afterwards he couldn't hit .300? No, but the odds of that happening wasn't great. And his value continued to diminish since 2000.


Even Jose Lima had an outlier of a season.



Again, based on minor league and career averages, other team GM's make educated decisions on player moves. Nobody outside of Al Avila think Matthew Boyd has value to another team as a top level starter. Some team might have been convinced prior to the All Star break, certainly not since. And every start were he doesn't do well, his value diminishes and it becomes part of his history. So, even if he starts out great next year, his history says he cannot be relied upon to finish it off.



Mediocre starter on a bad team = Ace

 

[Mitchrapp]

You are still missing the argument. Boyd's value could not get any higher /QUOTE]

And you know that for a fact? That he has 0 chance to get better next season and the one after that because it never happens?

 

[Mitchrapp]

So, trading Boyd for a player similar in talent, but a position player, would certainly be better 4 years down the road....financially and in terms of helping the Tigers win.

Hard to know what would a position player look like? It could be a Lugo. In-fact that's probably what would get back based on the past two GM's and their trade history.

 

[tomdalton22]

Hard to know what would a position player look like? It could be a Lugo. In-fact that's probably what would get back based on the past two GM's and their trade history.

well...the past GM did make the trade for Boyd himself...so the next guy could be just as good.

Trading is always a crap shoot. Just like keeping someone. You never know.

 

[Mitchrapp]

well...the past GM did make the trade for Boyd himself...so the next guy could be just as good.

Trading is always a crap shoot. Just like keeping someone. You never know.

Exactly. Which is why to saying we 'should have sold high' we might not have gotten a thing. As far as "Just as good." How good is Boyd? I think he has talent others on here don't think so. But I'm not going to take the stance that there is no chance he can improve.

Its funny if you go Lions some think Stafford can improve even at age 30 coming off a bad year yet that's okay..

 

[tomdalton22]

Exactly. Which is why to saying we 'should have sold high' we might not have gotten a thing. As far as "Just as good." How good is Boyd? I think he has talent others on here don't think so. But I'm not going to take the stance that there is no chance he can improve.

Its funny if you go Lions some think Stafford can improve even at age 30 coming off a bad year yet that's okay..

but let' circle back...wouldn't you rather have a younger, cheaper position player that has the same or more upside than Boyd?

 

[Mitchrapp]

but let' circle back...wouldn't you rather have a younger, cheaper position player that has the same or more upside than Boyd?

Knowing we have more pitching prospects in the ml and not much hitting sure. I'm curious what a Boyd like position player looks like.