Hard look article

[biggunsbob]

If Jim Harbaugh 'Fails' at Michigan it says more about the Wolverines then Harbaugh.

http://www.freep.com/story/sports/c...-michigan-college-football-playoff/795746001/

 

[biggunsbob]

Telling how may more 5 stars players are in a state like Georgia verses Michigan which have roughly the same population. I knew it was alot more but not that much more.

 

[thewolverines24]

This sky is falling article is a bit over dramatic. As frustrating and disappointing as it is, we all new we were taking a step back this year. No matter what mental gymnastics we wanted to attempt, we all knew deep down.

We have a defense we can continue to reload every year. Jim just needs to build the o-line and get a good QB. Peters may be that QB next year. Maybe McCaffrey. Our biggest concern has to be the o-line. We need Ruiz ready to roll at C next year. It sucks to count on, but we really need Newsome healthy and back at LT. With this year of experience, Onwenu will probably be serviceable at RG in 2018 or Runyan Jr beats him out. RT is going to be someone with no playing experience. Ulizio and JBB are terrible. We need Chuck Filiaga or JaRaymond Hall ready to start at RT next season. No more turnstile RT.

If one of those two can't start at RT, then we'll have to move Runyan Jr to LG and Bredreson to RT. If Newsome isn't healthy, then fuck.

 

[tomdalton22]

This sky is falling article is a bit over dramatic. As frustrating and disappointing as it is, we all new we were taking a step back this year. No matter what mental gymnastics we wanted to attempt, we all knew deep down.

We have a defense we can continue to reload every year. Jim just needs to build the o-line and get a good QB. Peters may be that QB next year. Maybe McCaffrey. Our biggest concern has to be the o-line. We need Ruiz ready to roll at C next year. It sucks to count on, but we really need Newsome healthy and back at LT. With this year of experience, Onwenu will probably be serviceable at RG in 2018 or Runyan Jr beats him out. RT is going to be someone with no playing experience. Ulizio and JBB are terrible. We need Chuck Filiaga or JaRaymond Hall ready to start at RT next season. No more turnstile RT.

If one of those two can't start at RT, then we'll have to move Runyan Jr to LG and Bredreson to RT. If Newsome isn't healthy, then fuck.

I don't think there was a sky is falling aspect to this article. I think it was just pointing out that some should just lower their expectations

 

[thewolverines24]

I don't think there was a sky is falling aspect to this article. I think it was just pointing out that some should just lower their expectations

I'm referencing how the article is basically stating if Harbaugh can't win a title at Michigan, then no one can.

 

[dubbsco]

I think the scary thing this season is just the fact that the offense looks SO much worse. If they were like a top 25-top 45 unit, there would be a ton to build on with this defense. As it is, I don't see any way they suddenly perform as such unless they make some massive sweeping changes in the coaching staff.

 

[thewolverines24]

I think the scary thing this season is just the fact that the offense looks SO much worse. If they were like a top 25-top 45 unit, there would be a ton to build on with this defense. As it is, I don't see any way they suddenly perform as such unless they make some massive sweeping changes in the coaching staff.

Honestly, I think Pep Hamilton is nothing more than mediocre at best. He was terrible with the Colts and the Browns and he doesn't look any better here. His system is almost all downfield passing and it kills the QB if the o-line is suspect. He's a recipe for disaster with our current roster.

I wish we could bring Fisch back and make him the OC.

 

[dubbsco]

Honestly though, I think that can work at times. Penn State has it down to a science. But you have to have the personnel to make it happen. And if you don't, you have to adjust. And that's what has not happened. He's not adjusted to this. Everything is either a quick out or a 90 yard bomb. I don't know where the 15-20 yard routes are.

 

[thewolverines24]

Honestly though, I think that can work at times. Penn State has it down to a science. But you have to have the personnel to make it happen. And if you don't, you have to adjust. And that's what has not happened. He's not adjusted to this. Everything is either a quick out or a 90 yard bomb. I don't know where the 15-20 yard routes are.

Those are saved for 3rd and 6. He sends everyone on a 20 yard route and has no hot route option.

PSU is a major outlier. They win more 50/50 balls than anyone and it's not even close. I don't remember the exact numbers, but they win about 25% more of the 50/50 balls than the national average. It seems unsustainable.

 

[dubbsco]

I never bought into the numbers last year as Michigan was some juggernaut offense. I thought the truth was somewhere in the middle. However, I figured they had the systems in place to mitigate the guys lost and have production that was somewhere in the ball park.

This is just stunning. I don't know what this offense is trying to be.

 

[Michchamp]

Honestly, I think Pep Hamilton is nothing more than mediocre at best. He was terrible with the Colts and the Browns and he doesn't look any better here. His system is almost all downfield passing and it kills the QB if the o-line is suspect. He's a recipe for disaster with our current roster.

I wish we could bring Fisch back and make him the OC.

I've talked about my "Pep Hamilton is the weak link here" theory (to be fair, I don't think Drevno was a great OC to begin with, so it's not all on Hamilton) with other people, and I usually get a blank stare, followed by "Harbaugh just needs to recruit a better QB"...

to take as objective look at Hamilton as possible to make sure I'm not just peeing up a tree here, I looked at some of the stats under him as a coach. He was a WRC at Stanford in 2010, then OC/QBC 2011-12 (haven't found those stats yet).

Raiders interviewed him for their HC job in '13 but passed.

he was then hired by the Colts OC for 3 seasons '13-'15. they were 11-5 his 1st 2 seasons, then 8-8, then he was fired. passing game stats were mixed his 1st yr, A LOT better his 2nd year, then the wheels fell off in 2015. colts went 8-8, Luck missed most of the season with bad injuries, and Hamilton was fired.

Luck's rookie season was 2012. made the pro bowl in '13-'14. Colts backup was Matt Hasselbeck, and a parade of horribles after that.

you could blame Hamilton's bad season on Luck's injury, but then I guess you have to credit his success to entirely to Luck as well (no pun intended).

after being canned by the Colts, Hamilton was hired by the Browns. red flag...

FWIW, the Browns & their offense got worse under him as OC, but were bad to begin with. went 3-13 in '15, then 1-15 in '16. their offense went from 30th to 31st... passing O went from 21st to 28th... adj yards/pass from 25th to 29th.

 

[Michchamp]

maybe someone can pull last year's 7 game stats and compare them to our 2017 7-game numbers?

 

[wlvrnstlr4life]

No, Michigan's offense was great last year and had no problem driving the ball downfield. Speight was the only issue with our offense. He was just really streaky. Last year was our year. There were just a couple mistakes that led to the team not being undefeated. 3 total I believe. That was with Fisch, though. When we needed a play to get back in it, we nailed it 99percent of the time. We sure as hell didn't tell everyone to run downfield and hope they get open.

As far as the article is concerned, it's a fucking idiot writing it. Basically he's saying that Harbaugh was a self promoter going all over to get kids, then says he did the right thing because the state of Michigan has dried up. So which is it dude? People wrote about him because of anything he did and anywhere he went. Not his fault, especially trying to plant flags in the south where the talent is. These dumb fucking sports writers act like he committed a crime and that permission was needed to recruit there. He made no derogatory statements toward anyone yet was scrutinized by writers and coaches alike. It wasn't self promotion, it was jealousy and hoping for failure because of the attention sports people we're giving him. How dare he try to level the playing field, he shouldn't be able to that!!

 

[Michchamp]

i also don't agree with the article. we lost to MSU for fuck's sake. Iowa last year. they have an easier time recruiting blue chip talent?

we kicked the shit out of Florida, 2 times in 3 years. most of the SEC is garbage this year, despite having more HS football talent right in their backyard.

throw the article in the "recruiting is all that matters" garbage pile.

 

[dubbsco]

I just have a hard time calling the offense last year great. There was a large run of big numbers against a ton of inferior teams, and slowed down when they played better teams (OSU, Wisconsin, FSU), and couldn't do much against Iowa and Indiana.

Trust me, not saying they weren't good, they were. I just never bought into them being an elite unit. And if they were that elite, we shouldn't be witnessing a supposed juggernaut turn into this shell in a single season.

 

[Michchamp]

I never bought into the numbers last year as Michigan was some juggernaut offense. I thought the truth was somewhere in the middle. However, I figured they had the systems in place to mitigate the guys lost and have production that was somewhere in the ball park.

This is just stunning. I don't know what this offense is trying to be.

to be fair, I didn't know what they were trying to be last year either, hence why I think Drevno deserves some of the blame.

we relied way too much on Peppers-sweeps and end-arounds last year, which are gimmicky to some extent, and they didn't work against better defenses. it didn't seem like we ever had plays we could run even if the defense knew what was coming because we were just better.

edit: posted that before your last post

 

[thewolverines24]

maybe someone can pull last year's 7 game stats and compare them to our 2017 7-game numbers?

Averages for first seven game's last year:

Passing
Cmp - 18.43
Att - 28.86
Pct - 64.01
Yds - 225.86
TDs - 2

Rushing
Att - 46.57
Yds - 257.86
Avg - 5.47
TDs - 4

Total Offense
Plays - 75.43
Yds - 483.71
Avg - 6.53

First Downs
Pass - 9.57
Rush - 13
Penalty - 1.29

Turnovers
Fumble - 0.43
INT - 0.29
Total - 0.71

This season:

Passing
Cmp - 15.1
Att - 27.4
Pct - 55.2
Yds - 187.7
TDs - 0.6

Rushing
Att - 42.4
Yds - 173.3
Avg - 4.1
TD - 1.6

Total Offense
Plays - 69.9
Yds - 361
Avg - 5.2

First Downs
Passing - 7.6
Rushing - 9.1
Penalty - 1.3

Turnovers
Fumble - 1.0
INT - 0.9
Total - 1.9

 

[dubbsco]

Unless you are Alabama, a great QB can mitigate SO many weaknesses on a college team. When's the last time Michigan's had a "great" or even a "very good" QB? I liked Henne a lot, but I never really thought he was great.

I just don't understand why M can't land their Deshaun Watson, Baker Mayfield, Josh Rosen, insert quality QB here...

 

[Gulo Blue]

'89 to '14, Michigan was the number two school for producing NFL QBs. But that stretch ended with Henne...so top 2 in that stretch even though our list ends in 2008.

http://www.mlive.com/wolverines/index.ssf/2014/06/nflcom_says_michigans_the_seco.html

I think Garnder had the raw talent...woulda, shoulda, coulda.


Is there any chance Peters is just bad, and if that's the case, could McCaffrey be ready next year?

 

[wlvrnstlr4life]

I just have a hard time calling the offense last year great. There was a large run of big numbers against a ton of inferior teams, and slowed down when they played better teams (OSU, Wisconsin, FSU), and couldn't do much against Iowa and Indiana.

Trust me, not saying they weren't good, they were. I just never bought into them being an elite unit. And if they were that elite, we shouldn't be witnessing a supposed juggernaut turn into this shell in a single season.

Are you kidding? Missing wide open receivers resulted in those games being close(Wisky and Iowa). Throwing 2int's(one at the goal line, the other a pick 6 against OSU. We should have beaten OSU by 21 easy. Our offense had no problem driving the ball against them or the others. Like I said Speight was too streaky and not consistent. If he had any consistency, we win those games and we don't play FSU without our best player. The WildPeppersCat wasn't used well at all and really hurt us in the red zone last. If we don't use that stupid play, our offense would have had more touchdowns against MSU. The offense was there. I have no idea why the plays are so different this year and why the coaches handicap these players.