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thewolverines24
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Michigan returns from the holiday break to host McNeese State in a dangerous spot on Friday night (7:00 p.m., BTN-Plus). The Cowboys have amassed an impressive amount of talent in Will Wade?s first season and are heavy favorites to win the Southland Conference.
KEYS
Adjust to zone & switching: Michigan?s zone offense has struggled this season. The Wolverines grade out in the 36th percentile against zones (compared to the 94th percentile against man), shooting 33.3% from three (down from 40.2% against man) and turning it over on 18.3% of possessions (up from 14.8% against man). Those numbers are ominous against a McNeese team that will sag into the paint, switch, zone, and muck the game up.
Hit jump shots: McNeese is content to lose the 3-point volume battle ? 323rd in offensive volume, 356th in defensive volume. That means that making open threes is crucial. Michigan has shot it well this year at 38.4% (21st), but perimeter shooting always has significant volatility. Juwan Howard emphasized on Thursday the importance of scoring inside and not falling in love with the three.
Contain Rashada Wells: Wells is emerging as one of the best mid-major guards in the country, and Michigan?s on-ball perimeter defense has left something to be desired this year. Wells will be a big-time test for Michigan?s on-ball and ball screen defense and a great tune-up ahead of Big Ten play.
Shake the vibes: Michigan has lost its last two BTN-Plus games (Long Beach State, Central Michigan) and its previous two post-Christmas games (Central Michigan, UCF). Those results have a lot of happenstance, but they speak to a program that has had a tough time dealing with sleepy spots over the last two years. Coming out sharp and executing early will go a long way to putting some of that voodoo in the past.
BOTTOM LINE
This is a holiday buy game in name only. KenPom says McNeese is not a team to be taken lightly, ranked just six spots behind Michigan?s first January Big Ten foe, and the spot makes things more difficult. Pomeroy?s metrics predict a 76-69 final, with a 74% chance of a Michigan win. How the Wolverines perform will tell us where this team stands heading into the Big Ten play.
The good news is that the win should age well if Michigan handles business. McNeese is ranked 54th in the NET, which means there?s a chance that this game ends up as a Q2 game (top 75 at home), and it will at least likely be a Q3 game (top 160 at home).
For context, Michigan played five Q4 games last year. This year?s team will only play two, with one of those games (UNC Asheville) having a reasonable chance of moving to Q3.
GO BLUE!
KEYS
Adjust to zone & switching: Michigan?s zone offense has struggled this season. The Wolverines grade out in the 36th percentile against zones (compared to the 94th percentile against man), shooting 33.3% from three (down from 40.2% against man) and turning it over on 18.3% of possessions (up from 14.8% against man). Those numbers are ominous against a McNeese team that will sag into the paint, switch, zone, and muck the game up.
Hit jump shots: McNeese is content to lose the 3-point volume battle ? 323rd in offensive volume, 356th in defensive volume. That means that making open threes is crucial. Michigan has shot it well this year at 38.4% (21st), but perimeter shooting always has significant volatility. Juwan Howard emphasized on Thursday the importance of scoring inside and not falling in love with the three.
Contain Rashada Wells: Wells is emerging as one of the best mid-major guards in the country, and Michigan?s on-ball perimeter defense has left something to be desired this year. Wells will be a big-time test for Michigan?s on-ball and ball screen defense and a great tune-up ahead of Big Ten play.
Shake the vibes: Michigan has lost its last two BTN-Plus games (Long Beach State, Central Michigan) and its previous two post-Christmas games (Central Michigan, UCF). Those results have a lot of happenstance, but they speak to a program that has had a tough time dealing with sleepy spots over the last two years. Coming out sharp and executing early will go a long way to putting some of that voodoo in the past.
BOTTOM LINE
This is a holiday buy game in name only. KenPom says McNeese is not a team to be taken lightly, ranked just six spots behind Michigan?s first January Big Ten foe, and the spot makes things more difficult. Pomeroy?s metrics predict a 76-69 final, with a 74% chance of a Michigan win. How the Wolverines perform will tell us where this team stands heading into the Big Ten play.
The good news is that the win should age well if Michigan handles business. McNeese is ranked 54th in the NET, which means there?s a chance that this game ends up as a Q2 game (top 75 at home), and it will at least likely be a Q3 game (top 160 at home).
For context, Michigan played five Q4 games last year. This year?s team will only play two, with one of those games (UNC Asheville) having a reasonable chance of moving to Q3.
GO BLUE!