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thewolverines24
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Michigan faces Memphis in the opening round of the Battle 4 Atlantis today (5:00 p.m, ESPN2). It?s the sort of opening game of a multi-team event where we think we know much more about both teams than we actually do. And one where the result comes down to who can better handle playing amidst the outside noise of a tropical paradise surrounded by water parks and casinos on the Wednesday afternoon before Thanksgiving.
KEYS
Game control: Michigan isn?t going to beat this Memphis team if it tries to play open gym, and Michigan has spent a lot of time playing open gym early on this season. It tried to do that against Long Beach State, and Memphis has wildly more talented players than Long Beach State ? the sort of players who thrive in that style of play. This is a classic spot where a Beilein team would slow the game down into a half-court battle of execution, but that isn?t this Michigan team?s style either. For me, it is all about finding the right balance and picking the right spots to attack quick, while minimizing the easy looks in the other direction.
Second big advantage or disadvantage: Memphis wants to play with four perimeter players and one big, and Michigan will play two bigs. That means Olivier Nkamhoua has to win his matchup. He must impose himself offensively and hold his own defensively in a game that will probably require him to guard on the perimeter more than he?d like.
Play defense: I?d usually focus on some certain part of stopping Memphis here, but Michigan?s defensive effort against Long Beach State was so poor that I think the goal here has to be executing some semblance of a defensive gameplan with consistency. If U-M can show improvement defensively in transition and against ball screens, it should have a chance in this game. If the effort on that end looks like Friday, it might be a long evening.
BOTTOM LINE
At this point, it?s hard to have any clue what we are going to get from this Michigan team. The team that won at St. John?s has a real chance in this environment; the team that didn?t bother to defend Long Beach State could easily go home 0-3.
KenPom pegs it as a near toss-up, projecting a 79-78 Memphis win and giving the Wolverines a 47% chance at a win.
For those planning ahead, the winner tips at 5:00 p.m. on Thanksgiving against Arkansas or Stanford, and the loser tips at 7:30 p.m.
GO BLUE!
KEYS
Game control: Michigan isn?t going to beat this Memphis team if it tries to play open gym, and Michigan has spent a lot of time playing open gym early on this season. It tried to do that against Long Beach State, and Memphis has wildly more talented players than Long Beach State ? the sort of players who thrive in that style of play. This is a classic spot where a Beilein team would slow the game down into a half-court battle of execution, but that isn?t this Michigan team?s style either. For me, it is all about finding the right balance and picking the right spots to attack quick, while minimizing the easy looks in the other direction.
Second big advantage or disadvantage: Memphis wants to play with four perimeter players and one big, and Michigan will play two bigs. That means Olivier Nkamhoua has to win his matchup. He must impose himself offensively and hold his own defensively in a game that will probably require him to guard on the perimeter more than he?d like.
Play defense: I?d usually focus on some certain part of stopping Memphis here, but Michigan?s defensive effort against Long Beach State was so poor that I think the goal here has to be executing some semblance of a defensive gameplan with consistency. If U-M can show improvement defensively in transition and against ball screens, it should have a chance in this game. If the effort on that end looks like Friday, it might be a long evening.
BOTTOM LINE
At this point, it?s hard to have any clue what we are going to get from this Michigan team. The team that won at St. John?s has a real chance in this environment; the team that didn?t bother to defend Long Beach State could easily go home 0-3.
KenPom pegs it as a near toss-up, projecting a 79-78 Memphis win and giving the Wolverines a 47% chance at a win.
For those planning ahead, the winner tips at 5:00 p.m. on Thanksgiving against Arkansas or Stanford, and the loser tips at 7:30 p.m.
GO BLUE!
