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thewolverines24
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Hosting #3 Virginia and it tips off at 9:30 PM Eastern on ESPN. A chance for a huge marquee win early in the season, but we'll actually have to play defense and make shots to even come close.
KEYS
Discipline and execution: Making simple boring plays consistently is what beats Virginia. Can Michigan close out without fouling? Communicate on defense and prevent giving up easy baskets? Put a body on a man and clean up the defensive glass? These are all things that Michigan has struggled to do against teams that aren?t as good or as disciplined as Virginia, so expecting the Wolverines to get the job done in every area is a tough ask.
Find a way to let Hunter Dickinson dominate: Hunter Dickinson is still the most talented player on the floor. We?ve seen teams nullify him a bit in recent weeks with over-aggressive help coverage or by sagging into the paint to dare U-M?s guards to shoot, but Dickinson is capable of dominating a game like this. If UVA hedges ball screens, Dickinson could look for some pick-and-pop shot attempts, but his 3-point shot hasn?t exactly looked dialed in this year. Michigan needs him to control the paint, especially on offense, and if he can be productive with his touches, then the Wolverines have a chance.
Make some jump shots: Michigan is shooting 33% on catch-and-shoot jumpers and a hard-to-explain 25% on unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers for the season. It?s impossible to win games when you can?t hit wide-open shots. If U-M is going to upset Virginia at home, jump shots will have to fall. A hot start would be paramount, given how tight this team has looked over the last week.
Don?t foul and defend the 3-point shot: The defensive matchup is interesting for Michigan because Virginia isn?t built to exploit some of the defensive ?gotchas? we?ve seen from this U-M roster over the last 12 months. They don?t have elite one-on-one players, run a volume ball screen offense, or like to dribble into pull-up shots. That sounds good in theory, but the reality is that they will test this U-M defense in ways it hasn?t been tested. Having a lousy ball screen defense doesn?t make you more equipped to defend the UVA offense. Michigan will likely switch aggressively one through four to defend Virginia?s actions, which makes it vulnerable to blown switches, slips, and other communication issues. The keys for U-M will be sticking to the scouting report, identifying personnel, and staying in front consistently enough to force tough contested shots.
KenPom likes Virginia 67-62. Virginia hasn't scored under 70 points all season, so I'm not sure what Ken's algorithm is smoking when it projects our defense to be the first to do so. That being said, this would be a great time for Michigan to string 40 minutes of good basketball, on both ends of the floor, together.
GO BLUE!
KEYS
Discipline and execution: Making simple boring plays consistently is what beats Virginia. Can Michigan close out without fouling? Communicate on defense and prevent giving up easy baskets? Put a body on a man and clean up the defensive glass? These are all things that Michigan has struggled to do against teams that aren?t as good or as disciplined as Virginia, so expecting the Wolverines to get the job done in every area is a tough ask.
Find a way to let Hunter Dickinson dominate: Hunter Dickinson is still the most talented player on the floor. We?ve seen teams nullify him a bit in recent weeks with over-aggressive help coverage or by sagging into the paint to dare U-M?s guards to shoot, but Dickinson is capable of dominating a game like this. If UVA hedges ball screens, Dickinson could look for some pick-and-pop shot attempts, but his 3-point shot hasn?t exactly looked dialed in this year. Michigan needs him to control the paint, especially on offense, and if he can be productive with his touches, then the Wolverines have a chance.
Make some jump shots: Michigan is shooting 33% on catch-and-shoot jumpers and a hard-to-explain 25% on unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers for the season. It?s impossible to win games when you can?t hit wide-open shots. If U-M is going to upset Virginia at home, jump shots will have to fall. A hot start would be paramount, given how tight this team has looked over the last week.
Don?t foul and defend the 3-point shot: The defensive matchup is interesting for Michigan because Virginia isn?t built to exploit some of the defensive ?gotchas? we?ve seen from this U-M roster over the last 12 months. They don?t have elite one-on-one players, run a volume ball screen offense, or like to dribble into pull-up shots. That sounds good in theory, but the reality is that they will test this U-M defense in ways it hasn?t been tested. Having a lousy ball screen defense doesn?t make you more equipped to defend the UVA offense. Michigan will likely switch aggressively one through four to defend Virginia?s actions, which makes it vulnerable to blown switches, slips, and other communication issues. The keys for U-M will be sticking to the scouting report, identifying personnel, and staying in front consistently enough to force tough contested shots.
KenPom likes Virginia 67-62. Virginia hasn't scored under 70 points all season, so I'm not sure what Ken's algorithm is smoking when it projects our defense to be the first to do so. That being said, this would be a great time for Michigan to string 40 minutes of good basketball, on both ends of the floor, together.
GO BLUE!
