How important are lineups?

[Rebbiv]

Since acquiring Peralta (30 July 2010), DET has gone 125-98, .561 WPCT. Looking at games where Cabrera, Avila, Boesch, Jackson and Peralta all started, their record is 47-36, .566 WPCT. It is basically the same winning percentage as to the games not started by all 5 of these players together.

Now, if you add Inge to these 5, their record is 22-23, .489 WPCT. Meaning, in games without Inge, the core 5 players went 25-13, .658 WPCT.

Now, think about this for a second. Since acquiring Peralta, the core 5 have started together only 37.2% of the time. If you have the core 5 plus Inge, it is only 20.1% of the time. This means, like most of us knows, that Leyland is constantly changing the lineup. Until Boesch went down for the year, the rate in 2011 was 47.4% for the core 5. That is better, but still not great.

With Fielder, that would be a core of 6 players. I think we all would agree that Cabrera, Fielder, Avila, Boesch, Jackson and Peralta are almost locks as starters. They should be in the lineup together at least 50%-75% of the time when all healthy. Avila will start at least 60-85% of all the games.

Here is the winning % of games started (2010-2011) since Peralta arrived (only players that were on the team when Peralta arrived and played in 2011):

Sizemore 15-9, .625
Guillen 19-13, .594
Avila 100-72, .581
Peralta 110-85, .564
Cabrera 119-92, .564

Jackson 110-87, .558
Santiago 46-38, .548
Inge 71-59, .546
Boesch 83-69, .546
Wells 24-20, .545
Raburn 80-67, .544
Ordonez 48-41, .539
Kelly 48-42, .533
Worth 5-5, .500

Rhymes 29-34, .460


2011 Record with DET

D. Young 30-10, .750
Martinez 88-56, .611
Dirks 32-22, .593

 

[Mitchrapp]

Nice stuff. I too hope the core play a substantial amount together. And man do I wish we had Vmart DH'ng this season.

 

[turok]

I think that we already know that at least one game on average each week, except for a possible rain-out during this coming season, won't feature all or even most of the entire core six, but fortunately some of them will likely feature their ace SP Verlander instead.

 

[tomdalton22]

Interesting but probably too small of sample sizes to come to much of a conclusion.

 

[Mitchrapp]

It will be more than one game. JL will take out two core players Monday, two core players on Tuesday and two core players on Wednesday. Just the way he works..

He likes putting in his Worths and Dirks etc of the world and get them at bats.

 

[Thumb]

I think that we already know that at least one game on average each week, except for a possible rain-out during this coming season, won't feature all or even most of the entire core six, but fortunately some of them will likely feature their ace SP Verlander instead.

The Delmon Young one especially, because he got picked up right as the Tigers went on a tear.

 

[Rebbiv]

Interesting but probably too small of sample sizes to come to much of a conclusion.

223 games are a small sample size?

 

[tomdalton22]

Interesting but probably too small of sample sizes to come to much of a conclusion.

223 games are a small sample size?

Some of them are large enough but others arent. If you notice most of the large samples are close to mirroring the actual overall record....the small ones deviate more.

 

[Rebbiv]

223 games are a small sample size?

Some of them are large enough but others arent. If you notice most of the large samples are close to mirroring the actual overall record....the small ones deviate more.

Huh???

Some of what? 223 games?? That not sure why 223 games are not a fair sample size.


Unless you mean the individual player's records since 30 July 2010. And yes, Sizemore's 24 games does not tell you anything.

However, the main gist of my post was that the 5 primary starters have not played together more than 37.2% of the time. That is an alarming percent.

 

[jimrice]

Some of them are large enough but others arent. If you notice most of the large samples are close to mirroring the actual overall record....the small ones deviate more.

Huh???

Some of what? 223 games?? That not sure why 223 games are not a fair sample size.


Unless you mean the individual player's records since 30 July 2010. And yes, Sizemore's 24 games does not tell you anything.

However, the main gist of my post was that the 5 primary starters have not played together more than 37.2% of the time. That is an alarming percent.

I think you have to go with 47.4%. If you are going to count games while Boesch is injured, you are going to skew the numbers. Injuries should be exempt.

If you look at games started, it's not as bad.

Cabrera gets a couple of games off a year.

Avila starts more than more catchers. With the open DH spot, he might get more starts. When Victor went to full time dh, that blocked Avila from using that spot on occasion. Add his post season numbers and you might conclude that played too much during the season and was worn down.

Jackson started 142 last year. I think he was rested on occasion because he was struggling with the bat and got the day off from tough righties.

Peralta is the weird case. 140 starts. There's some reason he gets rested so much, but I don't know it. It would be nice if a reporter in this town asked Leyland why Peralta gets more rest than other regulars.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Days off aren't the problems. Its when he takes 2-3 out at one time. It should improve this year just because Fielder plays and doesn't need to be taken out. But if Avila needs a rest, don't rest Peralta at the same time. Or some combination of core players.

 

[tomdalton22]

Some of them are large enough but others arent. If you notice most of the large samples are close to mirroring the actual overall record....the small ones deviate more.

Huh???

Some of what? 223 games?? That not sure why 223 games are not a fair sample size.


Unless you mean the individual player's records since 30 July 2010. And yes, Sizemore's 24 games does not tell you anything.

However, the main gist of my post was that the 5 primary starters have not played together more than 37.2% of the time. That is an alarming percent.

Yes...I was talking about some of your numbers for individual players.

 

[Thumb]

Mitch[/color]]Days off aren't the problems. Its when he takes 2-3 out at one time. It should improve this year just because Fielder plays and doesn't need to be taken out. But if Avila needs a rest, don't rest Peralta at the same time. Or some combination of core players.

Pretty hard to argue with a guy who's lineups won you 95 games, Mitch.

A good team is a good team, and if resting 2 starters changes that, then they were not as good a team as you thought.

 

[tomdalton22]

[quote="Mitch":g2mnj7a6]Days off aren't the problems. Its when he takes 2-3 out at one time. It should improve this year just because Fielder plays and doesn't need to be taken out. But if Avila needs a rest, don't rest Peralta at the same time. Or some combination of core players.

Pretty hard to argue with a guy who's lineups won you 95 games, Mitch.

A good team is a good team, and if resting 2 starters changes that, then they were not as good a team as you thought.[/quote:g2mnj7a6]

I agree. I think some players need more rest than others and I think JL has a good feel for that. I would like to see Avila get about 10 more games off this year.

 

[Mitchrapp]

[quote="Mitch":c89on219]Days off aren't the problems. Its when he takes 2-3 out at one time. It should improve this year just because Fielder plays and doesn't need to be taken out. But if Avila needs a rest, don't rest Peralta at the same time. Or some combination of core players.

Pretty hard to argue with a guy who's lineups won you 95 games, Mitch.

A good team is a good team, and if resting 2 starters changes that, then they were not as good a team as you thought.[/quote:c89on219]

Don't let the 95 wins fool ya. They did great against an inferior division. Forgot what the record was against the terrible 4 but its a big reason why they won 95.

 

[kalinecountry]

Kevin as always, Thanks for posting and sharing all the information.

iirc something about the Tigers Pythogorean record was a few games less than the 95 wins. But I think what gets most all of us with the stars/starters out for a game once a week to every 10 days or so, is that when they are out of the lineup, the replacement/bench player is inserted into the same lineup spot in the batting order. The so called Sunday Lineup...
I don't think the record was as bad as we 'bemoaned' it to be. More the case of 'wtf is Leyland doing' batting Kelly or insert other backup third/fourth/fifth.

 

[Mitchrapp]

You might be right KC.