Justin Upton rejects trade to Mariners

[durtymrclean]

This shows two things:
Justin Upton will not be playing in a dbacks uni next year
Upton wants to go to a contender.

I wonder what package the Mariners offered and if the tigers could match it or at least come close enough in value.

 

[Mitchrapp]

I don't want that guy.

 

[MaizeNCheese304]

As a mariner fan I'm glad. Dude can't hit away from his hitters park. Terrible attitude. And is just overrated, just like his brother.

 

[Rebbiv]

Upton is a below average player, who makes too much money. Going to Saefco would have killed his next contract.

 

[spockmaster]

this,

I don't want that guy.

because this

Upton is a below average player, who makes too much money.

 

[durtymrclean]

Upton would automatically become the 2nd/3rd best defender, best speed player, third/4th best offensive player on the tigers if they were to trade for him ( I'm only counting players who would be considered every day players). Upton worst full year is 2.5 WAR. Porcello barely averages above 2.5. Upton has the potential to put up a Cabrera type year according to WAR ( as evidenced by his 6.4 WAR a mere season ago). If you want to cite park as his weakness, Dave Cameron pretty much covered that ( http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/justin-upton-is-not-a-park-effect-mirage/ ) Upton is a solid major league rf that possesses MVP potential at the tender age of 25 whose career arc coincides right alongside the core of the team ( Cabrera, verlander, fielder, Jackson, Avila, scherzer). If I need to explain any more about this man, I really can not understand your reasoning as to why you wouldn't be overjoyed to have him on the tigers? You'd rather wait for castellanos to relearn a whole new position on the possibility he MIGHT help the tigers compete for a WS in 2015? Or would you rather have the guy who can help the tigers compete for a WS in 2013, 2014, 2015, or possibly beyond? A package of castellanos and porcello could match the mariners offer, and could leave the cupboard bare for a second, but when you have three ( possibly 4) MVP contenders on your team, does it matter anymore? Ask the yankees if it matters.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Only one D-War on the plus side, so not sure where you're getting this great defensive from. Potential to be Cabby, lmao. And in case you haven't noticed his OPS is 200 points lower on the road. That's a big fat no.

 

[Rebbiv]

Upton would automatically become the 2nd/3rd best defender, best speed player, third/4th best offensive player on the tigers if they were to trade for him ( I'm only counting players who would be considered every day players). Upton worst full year is 2.5 WAR. Porcello barely averages above 2.5. Upton has the potential to put up a Cabrera type year according to WAR ( as evidenced by his 6.4 WAR a mere season ago). If you want to cite park as his weakness, Dave Cameron pretty much covered that ( http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/justin-upton-is-not-a-park-effect-mirage/ ) Upton is a solid major league rf that possesses MVP potential at the tender age of 25 whose career arc coincides right alongside the core of the team ( Cabrera, verlander, fielder, Jackson, Avila, scherzer). If I need to explain any more about this man, I really can not understand your reasoning as to why you wouldn't be overjoyed to have him on the tigers? You'd rather wait for castellanos to relearn a whole new position on the possibility he MIGHT help the tigers compete for a WS in 2015? Or would you rather have the guy who can help the tigers compete for a WS in 2013, 2014, 2015, or possibly beyond? A package of castellanos and porcello could match the mariners offer, and could leave the cupboard bare for a second, but when you have three ( possibly 4) MVP contenders on your team, does it matter anymore? Ask the yankees if it matters.

Upton Career Away .250 BAVG .325 OBP .406 SLG .731 OPS

Upton Career at NL West Parks .254 BAVG .323 OBP .439 SLG .762 OPS

Upton Career in all parks except NL West .246 BAVG .327 OBP .379 SLG .705 OPS


Dave Cameron's FanGraphs article is a joke. The stats do not hold up to his claim that Upton's Away stats are hampered by being in the NL West. Yet, Upton's home stats versus NL West teams are virtually the same as all other teams. So we can eliminate levels of pitching staffs.


Upton is 20th in wOBA over the last 3 years Away for RFer. Almost tied with Ryan Ludwick. Nobody is making a case for Ludwick having played in a hitter friendly park.

 

[sggatecl]

As a mariner fan I'm glad. Dude can't hit away from his hitters park. Terrible attitude. And is just overrated, just like his brother.

Mariners, Wolverines, and Packers? What a combo!

 

[Mitchrapp]

Something wrong with that combo. I suspect he must have been born in Seattle else why would he be a Mariners fan? Maybe a Griffey Jr. fan..

 

[durtymrclean]

Upton Career Away .250 BAVG .325 OBP .406 SLG .731 OPS

Upton Career at NL West Parks .254 BAVG .323 OBP .439 SLG .762 OPS

Upton Career in all parks except NL West .246 BAVG .327 OBP .379 SLG .705 OPS


Dave Cameron's FanGraphs article is a joke. The stats do not hold up to his claim that Upton's Away stats are hampered by being in the NL West. Yet, Upton's home stats versus NL West teams are virtually the same as all other teams. So we can eliminate levels of pitching staffs.


Upton is 20th in wOBA over the last 3 years Away for RFer. Almost tied with Ryan Ludwick. Nobody is making a case for Ludwick having played in a hitter friendly park.

How much do you think austin jackson is worth in a trade? Mind you he is a .266/.333./.400 player away from Comerica last three years with worse baserunning skills and slightly better defense

 

[Mitchrapp]

How much do you think austin jackson is worth in a trade? Mind you he is a .266/.333./.400 player away from Comerica last three years with worse baserunning skills and slightly better defense

I'm not sure I get your point? What does having AJ have to do with not wanting Justin Upton..

 

[MaizeNCheese304]

Hahaha. A packers wolverines and mariners fan that lives in West Virginia!!


Took after my Dad in being a Michigan fan. And he liked the packers and mariners some when I first got into sports.

But he's a redskins and Red Sox fan, so he's random too

 

[durtymrclean]

I'm not sure I get your point? What does having AJ have to do with not wanting Justin Upton..

Im making the point that away stats are not an effective way to judge a player. All he is doing is cutting a sampke size in half that mostly disadvantages a player (as evidenced in the cameron article). I took a stats class and the first lesson I learned (if there is a bigger sample size, use that). Im looking at uptons overall production, not just his road stats. And if you think upton hitting in a pitchers park (which comerica is clearly not as evidenced by cabrera home/away splits for example) would effect him, he destroys petco park for his career, prob the best pitcher park in the majors.

 

[durtymrclean]

Maybe the fact that upton literally has to travel.more miles than thw average player due to living in arizona depresses his stats more. Vs. Living in say new york and driving your car to away games (btw derek jeter hits better on the road than at yankee stadium last year, should we say yankee stadium puts him at a hitting disadvantage?)

 

[MaizeNCheese304]

Mariners would be foolish to trade Walker and a package of other good prospects for upton.

 

[Rebbiv]

How much do you think austin jackson is worth in a trade? Mind you he is a .266/.333./.400 player away from Comerica last three years with worse baserunning skills and slightly better defense

Austin Jackson would be the perfect comparison. Any base running differences is negligible. Jackson is the better all around player and become a FA in 2016. He only made $500k last year.

Justin Upton also becomes a FA in 2016, but he is owed $38.5 Mil over the next 3 years and he is a corner OFer.


Now, if we were trading for Austin Jackson to play corner OF and he was due to make $38.5 Mil over the next 3 years, would I trade Porcello and Castellanos for him? Not in a million years.


There is no value in Upton. Period. You can add his Home biased stats all you want (Coors Field effect), but it doesn't change the fact he has to hit half his games on the road. And if you haven't noticed, the Tigers need help hitting on the road.

 

[Rebbiv]

Im making the point that away stats are not an effective way to judge a player. All he is doing is cutting a sampke size in half that mostly disadvantages a player (as evidenced in the cameron article). I took a stats class and the first lesson I learned (if there is a bigger sample size, use that). Im looking at uptons overall production, not just his road stats. And if you think upton hitting in a pitchers park (which comerica is clearly not as evidenced by cabrera home/away splits for example) would effect him, he destroys petco park for his career, prob the best pitcher park in the majors.

OK....a little help on park biases. Some parks only affect certain hitters. For example, Fenway helps Righthanders, but doesn't help lefthanded pull hitters.


Right handed power hitters are not affected as much by Petco. The left field fence is at 4 feet, versus 12 feet in right. Scott Hairston, Kevin Kouzmanoff and other right handed hitters were/are not affected that much by Petco.


Upton's HR Rate

Petco (SDP) 18.22 PA/HR

Chase (ARZ) 22.33 PA/HR

Dodger (LAD) 26.00 PA/HR

Coors (COL) 28.33 PA/HR

AT&T (SFG) 85.0 PA/HR

 

[mjsb2]

How much do you think austin jackson is worth in a trade? Mind you he is a .266/.333./.400 player away from Comerica last three years with worse baserunning skills and slightly better defense

Jacksons a much better defender than Upton.

Put him in RF and his UZR would be 10 runs higher than Uptons.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Im making the point that away stats are not an effective way to judge a player. All he is doing is cutting a sampke size in half that mostly disadvantages a player (as evidenced in the cameron article). I took a stats class and the first lesson I learned (if there is a bigger sample size, use that). Im looking at uptons overall production, not just his road stats. And if you think upton hitting in a pitchers park (which comerica is clearly not as evidenced by cabrera home/away splits for example) would effect him, he destroys petco park for his career, prob the best pitcher park in the majors.

Roads stats are a good judge and what a player might do. Does home cooking and their own bed help a player hit better? Maybe but no proof of that and certainly not 200 OPS worth.

And Cabby is a great hitter. That's the point, Cabby can destroy a park like Petco.