I can understand what your saying KC. Ian if he stays away from injury he should have no problem getting to the 2500 hit mark in 4 years.
The almighty Ryne Sandberg had 2386 hits and make it in. Took him 16 seasons to get to that mark. Retired at the age of 37
Kinsler is projecting to be at 2500 hits in 15 years of playing time. He could pass Sandberg in HR's if he averages 20 HR's a year during that time. He could also pass Ryne in Runs and RBI as well.
1. Kinsler never had more than 168 hits in a season prior to coming to DET. He hits 188 and 185 in back to back seasons at ages 32 and 33. He is on pace for 195 hits this year, at age 34. His 3 best hitting years will have come at ages 32-34. Talk about suspicion.
2. Kinsler had 1,518 career hits through age 33 season. He would have to average about 200 hits a season to get to 2500 through age 38 season (15 years of playing time).
3. Ryne Sandberg's career prior to his pre-mature retirement (sat out all of 1995) was far, far superior to Kinsler's. He retired at 34, was out the year he was 35 and came back for 36 and 37.
Through Age 33
Hits
R. Cano 2,104 and counting
R. Sandberg 2,080 (2,386 through 37)
L. Whitaker 1,831 (2,369 through 38)
W. Randolph 1,741 (2,210 through 37)
P. Polanco 1,681 (2,142 through 37)
I. Kinsler 1,518
B. Grich 1,427 (1,833 through 37)
J. Kent 1,409 (2,461 through 40)
C. Utley 1,275
Runs
R. Sandberg 1,143 (1,318 through 37)
L. Whitaker 1,040 (1,386 through 38)
W. Randolph 1,036 (1,239 through 37)
R. Cano 1,010 and counting
I. Kinsler 942
P. Polanco 826 (1,009 through 37)
B. Grich 792 (1,033 through 37)
C. Utley 779
J. Kent 764 (1,320 through 40)
RBIs
R. Cano 1,036 and counting
J. Kent 899 (1,522 through 40)
R. Sandberg 881 (1,061 through 37)
L. Whitaker 781 (1,084 through 38)
C. Utley 739
I. Kinsler 704
B. Grich 661 (864 through 37)
P. Polanco 579 (723 through 37)
W. Randolph 552 (687 through 37)
HRs
R. Cano 258 and counting
R. Sandberg 240 (282 through 37)
J. Kent 226 (377 through 40)
C. Utley 199
I. Kinsler 184
B. Grich 168 (224 through 37)
L. Whitaker 167 (244 through 38)
P. Polanco 90 (104 through 37)
W. Randolph 47 (54 through 37)
There are 17 MLB 2B with at least 2,250 career hits and only 3 are not in the HoF. Jeff Kent, Lou Whitaker and Julio Franco.
There are 16 MLB 2B with at least 1,250 career runs scored and 4 are not in the HoF. Jeff Kent, Lou Whitaker, Julio Franco and Tony Phillips.
There are 15 MLB 2B with at least 1,050 career RBIs and 3 are not in the HoF. Jeff Kent, Lou Whitaker and Julio Franco.
Of the top 18 MLB 2B (retired) in JAWS, Bobby Grich, Lou Whitaker, Jeff Kent and Willie Randolph are the only ones not in the HoF.
Of the top 20 MLB 2B (retired) in WAR, Bobby Grich, Lou Whitaker, Jeff Kent and Willie Randolph are the only ones not in the HoF.
Age 37-38 is about where the vast majority retire of HoF skillset and there is usually preceding regression. That regression usually comes after 32 and certainly after 36. There are a few anomalies here and there, but the basic pattern is there.
Kinsler has exceeded this pattern so far (which is good for the Tigers). But, his totals through age 33 is not as good as say Whitaker through that same age. Hoping he continues the pattern is one thing, expecting he will is another. Could he? Sure. But if he deviates from the norm too much, then speculation of PED use will ensue (see Jeff Kent).
