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kiper big board - post combine

mhughes0021

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Big shifts on the Big Board

Major shake-ups dot the top five, plus new names and some major drops


Originally Published: February 27, 2013
By Mel Kiper Jr. | ESPN Insider
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Floyd-Jordan-AnsahUSA TODAY Sports. Getty ImagesSharrif Floyd, Dion Jordan and Ezekiel Ansah all have seen their stock jump this week.



I simply can't remember a draft class where a day after the NFL combine, there's so little separation in potential value from my No. 1 to No. 25 prospects on the Big Board. It's amazing. The lack of a surefire top quarterback plays a role. The fact that there are so many great defenders plays a role. That there are incredible athletes who lack production, and great on-field producers with questions about athleticism, play a role. There are lots of questions still to be answered. It's crazy. But here's where it stands, at least for me ... at least for today.



Below, notes on performance traits remain similar week to week so you have a sense of the player, with updates on players each week as things shift. Please also see my rankings of the top 5 draft prospects at every position. Juniors and draft-eligible sophomores are noted with an asterisk.





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1


Jarvis Jones *



AGE: 23

DOB: 10/13/89

HT: 6-2

WT: 245

POS: OLB





Tkl 85

Sack 14.5

Int 1


Jones still must prove he belongs here with his pro day performance. He did not work out in Indianapolis. This reflects positional value and exceptional production for a player who is a very good, if not extraordinary, athlete. He combines explosiveness, discipline, relentless pass-rushing ability and great intangibles and effort. (He can also cover.) He profiles as a 3-4 outside linebacker but fits any system.

LAST WEEK: 1 | PLAYER CARD











2


Sharrif Floyd *



AGE: 20

DOB: 5/28/92

HT: 6-3

WT: 297

POS: DT





Tkl 41

Sack 1.0

Int 0


Stock is soaring. Showed exceptional power and athleticism in Indy, and he's still rounding into peak form short of his 21st birthday. Could be great in a 3-4 or a 4-3. Made major strides as the season progressed, the improvement in part stemming from a positional change and consistently improving technique. A star coming out of high school, Floyd has quickness for his size and an immensely powerful lower half, and he will drive linemen into the backfield.

LAST WEEK: 8 | PLAYER CARD












3


Eric Fisher



AGE: 22

DOB: 1/5/91

HT: 6-8

WT: 305

POS: OT





GP 12

GS 12


Continues to dispel doubts as the physical profile and strengths as an athlete match performance. Uses his length really well. Gets in a wide base, uses his arms to absorb pass-rushers and simply doesn't allow guys to get the edge on him. He often made it look easy in the MAC but also looked great when Central Michigan faced top competition; not a newcomer for scouts.

LAST WEEK: 7 | PLAYER CARD











4


Dion Jordan



AGE: 22

DOB: 3/5/90

HT: 6-6

WT: 246

POS: OLB





Tkl 44

Sack 5.0

Int 0
There had been questions about his ultimate position, but in Indy he showed why he should be considered a potentially dynamic 3-4 OLB. He showed elite speed for his size, and alleviated questions about whether he can cover, even as he profiles as a very good pass-rusher. He went to Oregon with the possibility of playing either offense (tight end) or defense but has emerged as an athletic, long-armed pass-rusher ready to make a difference.


LAST WEEK: 9 | PLAYER CARD












5


Luke Joeckel *



AGE: 21

DOB: 11/6/91

HT: 6-6

WT: 306

POS: OT





GP 13

GS 13


Once a lock to be the first tackle taken, he now has serious competition. He's not overwhelming as an athlete, but the tape shows a player with the ability to just swallow up even really good pass-rushers, particularly those who try to beat him off the edge. (He's more susceptible to those who go inside.) Has a ton of experience, starting on the left since his freshman season. He can really drive people in the run game, even if he gets questions on whether he's a big finisher there.

LAST WEEK: 2 | PLAYER CARD















6


Dee Milliner *



AGE: 21

DOB: 9/14/91

HT: 6-0

WT: 201

POS: CB





Tkl 54

Sack 1.5

Int 2


He answered the speed question in Indy with a blazing 4.37 time in the 40. Even if his backpedal needs work, he can clearly turn and run with anybody. A smart player, he got better and better as the season progressed. The raw football skills are exceptional. His physical prowess is a step above that of other corners. He hits receivers and isn't shy in run support, but with that, he is fluid, and reads the game well.

LAST WEEK: 6 | PLAYER CARD








7


Barkevious Mingo *



AGE: 22

DOB: 10/4/90

HT: 6-4

WT: 242

POS: OLB





Tkl 33

Sack 4.0

Int 0


Put on a show in Indy, with exceptional speed scores and a range of performance that make him a better prospect as a 3-4 pass-rushing outside linebacker. But the freak factor is a huge reason he's here, because the production doesn't match up. His athletic gifts allow him to overcome some lacking "football skills" coaches want, but he still gets by. He has survived without taking on a lot of blocks, for instance. There's a little boom-or-bust feel with Mingo, but who wouldn't want to see what he can become?

LAST WEEK: 12 | PLAYER CARD










8


Star Lotulelei



AGE: 23

DOB: 12/20/89

HT: 6-2

WT: 311

POS: DT





Tkl 42

Sack 5.0

Int 0


He wasn't allowed to work out due to a heart condition we need to learn more about. I won't drop him too far, however, because we need answers. If you go by the tape, you see a player who can't be blocked one-on-one, period. He absorbs so much blocking help and frees up others, but he's not just a clogger, because he can show off a great burst and the ability to destroy plays. Has a great sense for disrupting the run game. Quick off the ball with great upper- and lower-body strength.

LAST WEEK: 4 | PLAYER CARD










9


Chance Warmack



AGE: 21

DOB: 9/14/91

HT: 6-2

WT: 314

POS: OG





GP 14

GS 14


He's not going to wow anybody with athleticism, but teams know what they are getting, and that's a very good guard who'd be a little higher if not for the positional value question. As a run-blocker, he simply takes defenders where he wants them to go, utilizing great power and quickness at his size. Warmack also moves well, with initial power in tight spaces and the ability to read stunts, sometimes with ease.

LAST WEEK: 9 | PLAYER CARD








10


Jonathan Cooper



AGE: 23

DOB: 1/9/90

HT: 6-2

WT: 311

POS: G





GP 12

GS 12


Nimble yet powerful, a potential star at left guard. Cooper has started since his redshirt freshman season, doesn't miss blocks, hits moving targets and has a great punch. He is powerful and quick for his size and dictates matchups. Moves extremely well, with a good bounce from his stance, and he moves well in tight spaces, allowing him to beat defenders to spots, move them to a side and get downfield.

LAST WEEK: 10 | PLAYER CARD










11


Bjoern Werner *



AGE: 22

DOB: 9/30/90

HT: 6-3

WT: 266

POS: DE





Tkl 42

Sack 13.0

Int 0


Didn't test particularly well in Indy; he was a little stiff overall. That said, Werner still has tremendous upside to go along with a season of consistent production. Has great awareness. A pretty good pass-rusher, he also defends the pass by swatting passes, but sometimes when he's been negated. He shows very good balance, but can he dip his hips enough to turn the corner on better blockers? He produced, but you still need to be sold on growth potential.

LAST WEEK: 5 | PLAYER CARD








12


Ezekiel Ansah



AGE: 23

DOB: 5/29/89

HT: 6-5

WT: 271

POS: DE





Tkl 62

Sack 4.5

Int 1
His eventual position is a question; his raw athleticism is not. A player with a track background and major athletic gifts, his draft value could be defined by whether teams think he can help immediately. This is a track star in a 271-pound frame, a guy who blazed the 40 and shows decent power. A lot of value is in his burst, the ability to jolt a defender with that initial punch. The question is whether he can add a repertoire.



LAST WEEK: 19 | PLAYER CARD








13


Sylvester Williams



AGE: 24

DOB: 11/21/88

HT: 6-3

WT: 313

POS: DT





Tkl 42

Sack 6.0

Int 0


He looks squat, but he's really quick off the ball. Williams has a knack for jumping the snap; his burst can be disruptive. The TFLs pile up because of it. He has a lot of natural gifts; quick for his size, good feet, a strong punch to get defenders off-balance and great energy. He's a leverage guy with quickness but will occasionally chase down plays. Tackles like he's angry.

LAST WEEK: 20 | PLAYER CARD








14


Kenny Vaccaro



AGE: 22

DOB: 2/15/91

HT: 6-0

WT: 214

POS: S





Tkl 96

Sack 0

Int 2


Tested at Indy like the player I thought he was, so no change. His versatility is key. Adept in coverage, he's also strong as an extra defender against the run because he has the size and willingness to attack the line of scrimmage. Still, you can match him up in coverage inside or out wide and he'll hold his own. Makes good reads and big plays.

LAST WEEK: 13 | PLAYER CARD










15


Lane Johnson



AGE: 22

DOB: 5/8/90

HT: 6-6

WT: 303

POS: OT





GP 13

GS 11


It's hard not to get excited about his ceiling. Here's a tackle who was playing quarterback in junior college, so he's still learning the tricks. Has the long arms you look for, can absorb rushers, and gets a decent push in the run game but then can get out and use his athleticism downfield and on the edges. Technically solid with his feet, given a relative lack of experience on the O-line. Plays relaxed.

LAST WEEK: 17 | PLAYER CARD








16


Tavon Austin



AGE: 21

DOB: 3/15/91

HT: 5-8

WT: 174

POS: WR





Rec 114

Yds 1,289

Avg 11.3

TD 12


Crushed the combine by showing off the elite burst and straight-line speed teams want out of a high-impact slot receiver. Austin's value was a question because at his size, he's limited at X or Z. But his excellent vision, space-creating skills and ability to shift gears and vary speeds to stay uncovered are the best in this draft class. He is, simply, a touchdown-maker.

LAST WEEK: NR | PLAYER CARD








17


Cordarrelle Patterson *



AGE: 21

DOB: 3/17/91

HT: 6-2

WT: 216

POS: WR





Rec 46

Yds 778

Avg 16.9

TD 5


He came in a little shorter than previously listed, but at the combine Patterson also showed good explosive speed and leaping ability. There's a lot of projection here, because he really needs to clean up his route-running, but if teams are looking for a potential matchup nightmare, Patterson has the kinds of tools you look for. He'll fight for the ball and create big plays after the catch, and he has good physical size to take hits.

LAST WEEK: 21 | PLAYER CARD








18


Tyler Eifert *



AGE: 22

DOB: 9/8/90

HT: 6-5

WT: 250

POS: TE





Rec 50

Yds 685

Avg 13.7

TD 4


He's not extraordinary in any one area, but he's very good in all of them. And he moves up because he's going to be the top tight end available in a league obsessed with them. Has pass-catching skills of a natural receiver and can be split out; will go up and high-point passes. He'll get off the line effectively, and battles pretty well as a blocker.

LAST WEEK: 22 | PLAYER CARD








19


Sheldon Richardson *



AGE: 24

DOB: 1/1/89

HT: 6-2

WT: 294

POS: DT





Tkl 75

Sack 4.0

Int 0


Great feet, initial quickness; he can beat linemen to the backfield. He also gets down the line and pursues, which is why he nearly led Mizzou in tackles as an interior lineman (that would've been pretty remarkable). Love his effort level and potential to fit in any scheme. My guess is he'll end up as a 3-technique, and plenty of teams need them.

LAST WEEK: 15 | PLAYER CARD








20


D.J. Fluker *



AGE: 21

DOB: 3/13/91

HT: 6-5

WT: 339

POS: OT





GP 13

GS 13


Massive player with incredibly long arms, he's going to be best staying at right tackle, period. A dominant run-blocker, his arms act like hydraulics and he just dominates the edge, allowing running lanes to form. Has to stay on the right side, though, because he's too susceptible to good pass-rushers. Decent bend for his size.

LAST WEEK: 16 | PLAYER CARD










21


Manti Te'o



AGE: 22

DOB: 1/26/91

HT: 6-1

WT: 241

POS: LB





Tkl 113

Sack 1.5

Int 7


Speed was a question going into the combine; now it's been downgraded to a flaw. On tape, he's a known commodity with exceptional football instincts and a ton of experience. He attacks the backfield and was able to get to the edges. But right now, you have a player who's lighter than initially listed and slower than we'd hoped. He remains here based on tape with the shot his pro day can help, and because others at his position have fallen off as well.

LAST WEEK: 14 | PLAYER CARD








22


Alec Ogletree *



AGE: 21

DOB: 9/25/91

HT: 6-2

WT: 242

POS: LB





Tkl 111

Sack 3.0

Int 1
Was less explosive than I expected in Indy, but he also came in a little more bulked up. Love his on-field instincts, but he has faced major questions about off-field ones. That said, he was awesome in some games and against great competition, flying to the ball, beating blocks and laying huge hits. A onetime safety, he has the ability to cover. Led Georgia in tackles by 13 even though he missed four games. At his best, just flies to the ball.



LAST WEEK: 18 | PLAYER CARD








23


Desmond Trufant



AGE: 22

DOB: 9/10/90

HT: 6-0

WT: 190

POS: CB





Tkl 36

Sack 1.0

Int 1


Can't question the pedigree -- he'll be the third Trufant brother to play in the NFL. He was stellar at the Senior Bowl, and shined in Indy, where he ran a 4.38 40. He gets great marks for his ability to work outside or in; on the edge he can turn and run with anybody, and will read plays and beat receivers to the spot. Stock is in good shape.

LAST WEEK: NR | PLAYER CARD








24


Datone Jones



AGE: 22

DOB: 7/24/90

HT: 6-4

WT: 283

POS: DT





Tkl 62

Sack 6.5

Int 0


A versatile defender who gets a great burst off the snap and can clear blockers quickly, a reason he piled up 19.0 TFL. He has really good feet, allowing him to not look like a big DT who can't wrap up shifty runners. Pretty quick, he'll chase plays down. Just needs to show more strength in his lower half to hold up as bigger linemen lean on him all game.

LAST WEEK: NR | PLAYER CARD








25


Matt Elam*



AGE: 21

DOB: 9/21/91

HT: 5-10

WT: 208

POS: S





Tkl 76

Sack 2.0

Int 4
Not a big safety, but plays without fear and creates havoc at the line of scrimmage. Good speed, can cover the slot and make plays and big hits in the secondary. A useful blitzer. Really flies to the ball, but needs to stay engaged in the action all the time. A good shot to go in Round 1.
 
That's one big post. Fisher keeps on moving. So on his list, that's 2 OLB and a DT in his top 4. Guys I don't want at 5. If they indeed get picked that high, pretty much can grab a top CB, LT or even DE. Works for me.
 
doesn't matter who they grab at #5, there will be question marks with the pick as that is the nature of every player in this draft. hopefully whomever they get will perform above expectations, hard to say whether these guys are already maxed out in ability or have large growth potential and only time will tell
 
I'm liking a Milliner pick more and more. He has size, he had strong play on the field, he continued to improve, and he absolutely answered the athleticism questions. I understand LT and DE are needs too, but at least we have options in those cases. Young can step in for Avril and the draft is deep on DEs anyways. Rieff is ready to step in on either side of the line, and we could likely find a new RT or OG later (OG could have just as big of an impact as RT given our play last year).

CB is a huge concern, and Milliner has done everything you could ask out of an elite DB.
 
It's gotta be Milliner at this point, doesn't it?

He has the size Mayhew and Schwartz are looking for.

He would allow Bentley to move inside, where he belongs.

Fits the form of good tackling corners Schwartz loves.

And if he pans out as expected, he would allow Houston (if resigned, of course) to move to the 2nd CB spot, were he would be able to be a lock down #2.

Unless there is a trade down for more picks.....which I am all for......I would assume if he is there at 5 we have to take Milliner.
 
What happens if Backus retires and we lose Houston and Avril to FA. Fox and Reiff at OT with Green and Bentley at CB? Lojack and Young at DE? They are all scary.
 
What happens if Backus retires and we lose Houston and Avril to FA. Fox and Reiff at OT with Green and Bentley at CB? Lojack and Young at DE? They are all scary.

So we don't get to participate in free agency or the draft? Itrs get Houston and Avril or bust? No other comparable free agents allowed?
 
So we don't get to participate in free agency or the draft? Itrs get Houston and Avril or bust? No other comparable free agents allowed?

theres not many options at DE via FA. kruger would be huge but we'll be in a high priced bidding war. Idonije would be a solid guy to get but probably wont put up the sack numbers avril does. We almost have to pick a starting DE in the draft which means rounds 1-3. Luckily its a deep draft for DEs.
 
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It's gotta be Milliner at this point, doesn't it?

He has the size Mayhew and Schwartz are looking for.

He would allow Bentley to move inside, where he belongs.

Fits the form of good tackling corners Schwartz loves.

And if he pans out as expected, he would allow Houston (if resigned, of course) to move to the 2nd CB spot, were he would be able to be a lock down #2.

Unless there is a trade down for more picks.....which I am all for......I would assume if he is there at 5 we have to take Milliner.

+1.
 
So we don't get to participate in free agency or the draft? Itrs get Houston and Avril or bust? No other comparable free agents allowed?

So you draft DE at 5 and DE in 3rd or 4th round. Bam, new starters. Or you get a CB at 5 and go DE in round 2 and 3 or round 2 and 4. You make it sound like we can't get production at DE in the mid rounds. Its possible. Not sure its possible with Mayhew but nonetheless.
 
Change that up. We only need to draft one DE, either at 5 or round 2. Fills in for Avril, Lojack and Young man the other side and have better production than KVB. We should improve at DE in 2013.
 
Change that up. We only need to draft one DE, either at 5 or round 2. Fills in for Avril, Lojack and Young man the other side and have better production than KVB. We should improve at DE in 2013.

yep, and if lucky enough to trade down, might be able to fill an additional hole. if not, they'll do the best they can and likely pick up a couple guys who get cut by other teams in hopes they can perform better than the scrubs currently holding down the fort.
 
Which rookie DE is ready to step right in. Remember we need 9-10 sacks and 40 hurries maybe 3-4 forced fumbles.
 
So we don't get to participate in free agency or the draft? Itrs get Houston and Avril or bust? No other comparable free agents allowed?

I was just saying that what happens if we lose all those guys, what positions do we take in rounds 1-3. Can we trust Fox to play OT if Backus retires and not be injured after 3 games? Do we take Milliner and play him with Green/Bentley for a very young and inexperienced backfield. Do we take a DE, which several we've been pegged for are falling down the rankings now that the combine is done.
 
Which rookie DE is ready to step right in. Remember we need 9-10 sacks and 40 hurries maybe 3-4 forced fumbles.

One that can get a sack now and again and actually make a tackle. Bam, there's your production. Avril is decent, he's not all that.
 
I was just saying that what happens if we lose all those guys, what positions do we take in rounds 1-3. Can we trust Fox to play OT if Backus retires and not be injured after 3 games? Do we take Milliner and play him with Green/Bentley for a very young and inexperienced backfield. Do we take a DE, which several we've been pegged for are falling down the rankings now that the combine is done.

If Backus retires we have more money, we could get Gosder back. Reiff, Gosder. Mayhew has hinted he wants Hilliard back too. Fox and Hilliard the backups again like in 2011. They like Fox's talent but they Mayhew brings up the injury every time. They seem a bit wary of Fox playing and not getting hurt, not his talent though.

Free agency will tell us about the draft, if they don't get Gosder, Avril and Houston they'll just be sitting on a pile of money after the Stafford extension being 18 million under plus. They'll go after a comparable tackle, CB or DE with that much cap space.
 
One that can get a sack now and again and actually make a tackle. Bam, there's your production. Avril is decent, he's not all that.

id rather have a guy that doesnt get tossed 15 yards out of the play consistently and only gets 7 sacks a year as opposed to avril who gets completely tossed out of the play 90% of the time and 5% of the time does something worthwhile.
 
One that can get a sack now and again and actually make a tackle. Bam, there's your production. Avril is decent, he's not all that.

A sack now and again doesn't sound like 9-10 sacks. And that doesn't sound like consistent pressure either. Those hurries are just as important. Avril can be a good consistent pass rusher. Going young at both DE spots just sounds like disaster in the short term. Overtime might be a good thing though.

I'd say get Avril back and Houston, AND draft Milliner then draft Hunt. That way you are not relying on rookies. And Hunt can rotate nicely with Jackson and Young.
 
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