Michigan @ MSU analysis thread, keys to victory

[hungry]

Well, the hate thread is nice, but i'd like to see some actual analysis. What do you guys think are the keys to victory for each team?

Seems to me if Michigan can limit turnovers, ie mind-numbing INT's by Denard, AND limit BJ Cunningham, then the Wolverines have a very good chance of winning. Michigan seems suspect on the edges, but I don't know if any of the MSU backs have the speed to get to the edges. I'm thinking they are more north-south types and that plays right into the strength of the Michigan D. The Michigan D seems to do very well against the power run right up the middle, which is a nice change from the past. Offensively, MSU will limit the points that MIchigan scores, but still, I think the only real way to limit the Michigan O is to force them into turnovers. This showed in last year's UM-MSU game, too.

 

[jever4321]

It would be awesome if the RB's could get going early and often. If they could pound out 5 YPC that would be a pretty good start.

 

[erg57]

expose poor MSU O-line and get Cousins throwing picks as he is apt to do

 

[lostleader]

The D needs to cause TO early and often...No reason the can't happen

The O needs to run the ball...And not with Drob. Fitz, Smith, Shaw need to be the primary ball carriers.

 

[damfran]

I think UM needs to stretch the field from the start....east and west as well as north and south. I'd like to see some more counters and misdirection plays using Drob as a decoy. I like the plays where Drob sells the qb draw and passes as long as it's used in the right situations. Just don't let me predict the play...if I can't, I doubt Sparty can.

This playing from behind shit is getting old.

On D, just keep on not giving up the big plays, which they have not been allowing, wrap up on tackling, get your hands up in the passing lanes, and take good pursuit angles.

Special teams?....kind of giving up on any return TDs this year.....so just give me good field position without any turnovers. Need to make both of the FGs we will attempt....and the one 2pt. conversion we will attempt

And keep track of their timekeeper.

 

[TheVictors]

I expect that with a convenient BYE week preceding the game, the seething hatred and animous aimed at the Wolverines and a bit of smug cockiness, resulting from recent years ....that Sparty will come out flying, with trick plays and anything and everything and take the early lead.

But I agree with erg57 and a disruptive defense's ability to make Cousins play like he did in south bend. I expect a shootout of sorts but expect the UM defense to smack Sparty in the mouth, a smack the likes of which they haven't felt from Michigan in years.

State's running game is deep but I think they'll out-cute themselves in playcalling and shoot themselves in the foot. If UM keeps it to one turnover, they'll win. If Sparty makes it ugly and gets some momentum plays, they'll win. And I like wheels' characterization of Hoke playing with house money at this point ....lose in Lansing in a competitive game and things are still okay ...beat Sparty and the turnaround is legit. Somehow get spanked ..... RichRod is once again the goat.


AND ....... Watch the timekeeper

 

[bphillips4gg]

I hope he doesn't realize it, as that seems to be a recipe for disaster, but it all falls on Denard. When this offense has balance, it's unstoppable. When it's one-dimensional, it's inept. If he can make good reads, go through his progressions and make accurate throws, then there's no reason our boys don't win by 2 scores. If he plays piss-poor for even a half, it's going to be tough to overcome.

Secondly, I think this is the kind of game that Shaw should be able to excel. I love Vincent Smith, but Shaw has more power than Smith will ever have, and MSU's D is built for that type of game. If they can get Smith in space, great. If they're looking to run between the tackles, I hope it's Shaw.

A few new packages with Gardner can't hurt either. Especially if they're out of that "diamond" formation that turn into passes. I hope the running plays against Minny were enough to sell MSU on them running out of that formation, and that a few running plays from it, followed by play action can equate to a big play. Would also love to see a flanker screen to Denard. With as deadly as he is once he gets into space, imagine how nasty he could be if he starts in space. Maybe even take a page out of Lloyd's book and put Gardener under center with the 4 receiver diamond that they used to throw to Braylon or Breaston... 3 blockers and the ball in Denard's hands is a big play waiting to happen.

Gotta get pressure from the front 4. Cousin's is as bad at forcing the ball as Drob, and if they can generate a solid pass rush without giving up a LB or DB in coverage, they'll be in great shape.

Lastly, they CANNOT afford a slow start again. Northwestern is a good team, but they're not as good as MSU. You can't expect to turn the ball over 3 times in the first half and win. No way around that. They need to establish a good balance and keep that MSU defense off-guard. If they can't do so, it'll be an ugly day.

I expect a win in this game. The bar has been set high, and I believe in what Hoke and his staff are doing. Restoring the Michigan tradition means beating little brother, and I honestly think it's going to happen.

 

[wellmanadam]

Isn't THE stat that in this game the team that rushes for more yards has won something like 35 out of the last 37 games?? Would someone with more initiative than myself please do the research?

I'm gonna watch the running backs; if we get a 100 yard effort out of someone not named Denard I think we win.

EDIT: it's 38 out of 41, if you trust the FREEP's research. That's not just a trend...
http://www.freep.com/article/20111011/SPORTS06/110110362/Getting-physical-Michigan-vs-Michigan-State?odyssey=mod|mostview

 

[wlvrnstlr4life]

No turnovers and Michigan wins, it's that plain and simple.

 

[uofm06marine]

Isn't THE stat that in this game the team that rushes for more yards has won something like 35 out of the last 37 games?? Would someone with more initiative than myself please do the research?

I'm gonna watch the running backs; if we get a 100 yard effort out of someone not named Denard I think we win.

You are right. Simply put, MSU's rushing game this year has sucked. If we shut down their rushing game they will have KC try to beat us with his arm. Good news is that NU had a better offense than MSU.

The key to the game is U of M coming out and playing a full game of football. This means minimal turnovers (I'm a realist). Most importantly they need to get the lead in the first half and keep it, that will take out the crowd and take away the homefield advantage.

 

[Michchamp]

You are right. Simply put, MSU's rushing game this year has sucked. If we shut down their rushing game they will have KC try to beat us with his arm. Good news is that NU had a better offense than MSU.

...

you touched on what I think is the key point there: containing MSU's running game.

ND held them to few yards on the ground, and while Cunningham had a great game against them, he was a one man show, and ND was able to capitalize on mistakes made by Cousins & by Dantonio's questionable decision making.

We don't have anyone who is going to be able to cover Cunningham all day... but if we contain their running game, it shouldn't matter.

Case-in-point: against ND, Cunningham had 12 catches for 158 yards, and Cousins was 34/53 for over 300 yards. MSU ran 23 times for only 28 yards, and scored only thirteen (13) points, despite outgaining ND by almost 78 yards total.

 

[hungry]

Some good points have been brought up

Some people need to realize that the NW O is nothing like the MSU O. What NW pulled in the first half of last week's game doesn't mean anything coming into this game. MSU doesn't have those offensive packages and they can't install them in 1 week. NW used misdirection and a spread package. MSU doesn't do that. They use a little misdirection, but its mostly run-right-at-ya.

As for the passing offense from MSU, people are right, they have BJ. I thought Michigan did a great job against Michael Floyd, limiting him. THey should be able to do the same thing against BJ.

I just get the feeling that this coaching staff has held players back and held packages back for 6 weeks. I know that sounds crazy as they had games to win, but from what I've seen and read here and there, I think some players are going to be coming back from 'injury' and that we will see some defensive and offensive schemes used this saturday that we have yet to see.

Go Blue!

 

[Monster]

look, sparty has some beasts at RB, but if we can keep them from big plays, we'll win. Cousins will pick us apart, especially with Cunningham, but he'll give us chances at taking the ball away. We need to take those chances.

 

[beez]

Monster [/color]]look, sparty has some beasts at RB, but if we can keep them from big plays, we'll win. Cousins will pick us apart, especially with Cunningham, but he'll give us chances at taking the ball away. We need to take those chances.

^ This....you guys act like Cousins is awful. Cousins will probably pick UM apart for most of the night but if we can get some pressure on him and force a few throws into UM jerseys, that will be the difference. Cousins can play, he's just mistake prone. The key to the game is Michigan's Dline.

 

[jdbaker1]

Defensively we have to stop the run and put pressure on Cousins. He will make some throws but as long as they aren't grinding it out and keeping the ball away from our offense we should be good. Offensively it is simple, Drob needs to make good reads and hit open receivers. If he does that it will open up holes in the running game for Drob and others. We can't turn the ball over and we need to hold our own in special teams.

 

[uofm06marine]

I wasn't trying to belittle Cousin's passing ability, but I believe Persa is a better QB (Granted he doesn't have a go to receiver like BJ Cunningham). I really and truly believe if we can control their run game and limit our mistakes we will win this game.

U of M has to take control of the game and go into the half with the lead. U of M is lights out in the second half this season. I know this may sound overconfindent, but if we get into the half with the lead it may well be over. Previous games have shown MSU is terrible in the second half and U of M is dominant, while this certainly doesn't mean exactly too much, it does give me hope.

 

[redandguilty]

From some of the player quotes, it sounds like the key is Denard having fun and not stressing out. Shoeski needs lighten up from the start.

edit: http://twitter.com/#!/chengelis/status/123459220355026944