Minor versus MLB numbers

[Rebbiv]

Career Minor Leagues versus Career MLB Away

P. Fielder .398 OBP .524 SLG .922 OPS 9.1 PA/BB vs .377 OBP .502 SLG .879 OPS 10.6 PA/BB (-.043)
V. Martinez .392 OBP .489 SLG .881 OPS 10.6 PA/BB vs .362 OBP .465 SLG .827 OPS 13.0 PA/BB (-.054)
C. Granderson .382 OBP .493 SLG .875 OPS 9.8 PA/BB vs .342 OBP .496 SLG .838 OPS 10.3 PA/BB (-.037)
D. Young .360 OBP .514 SLG .874 OPS 18.8 PA/BB vs .323 OBP .425 SLG .748 OPS 25.0 PA/BB (-.126)
C. Maybin .393 OBP .479 SLG .872 OPS 8.4 PA/BB vs .308 OBP .386 SLG .694 OPS 14.9 PA/BB (-.178)
I. Kinsler .376 OBP .492 SLG .868 OPS 11.3 PA/BB vs .312 OBP .399 SLG .711 OPS 12.1 PA/BB (-.157)
R. Raburn .359 OBP .495 SLG .854 OPS 9.8 PA/BB vs .330 OBP .453 SLG .783 OPS 14.5 PA/BB (-.071)
S. Sizemore .388 OBP .453 SLG .841 OPS 8.9 PA/BB vs .336 OBP .397 SLG .733 OPS 7.8 PA/BB (-.108)
C. Wells .345 OBP .493 SLG .838 OPS 10.4 PA/BB vs .312 OBP .433 SLG .745 OPS 13.8 PA/BB (-.093)
M. Joyce .362 OBP .466 SLG .828 OPS 8.8 PA/BB vs .334 OBP .467 SLG .801 OPS 9.6 PA (-.027)
J. Lennerton .379 OBP .438 SLG .817 OPS 7.5 PA/BB vs ???
N. Castellanos .359 OBP .445 SLG .804 OPS 13.3 PA/BB vs ???
A. Avila .372 OBP .422 SLG .794 OPS 7.9 PA/BB vs .333 OBP .368 SLG .701 OPS 8.1 PA/BB (-.091)
R. Davis .375 OBP .409 SLG .784 OPS 11.3 PA/BB vs .317 OBP .353 SLG .670 OPS 17.5 PA/BB (-.114)
M. Cabrera .350 OBP .431 SLG .781 OPS 12.2 PA/BB vs .391 OBP .555 SLG .946 OPS 11.6 PA/BB (+.165)
S. Lombardozzi .369 OBP .411 SLG .780 OPS 11.1 PA/BB vs .280 OBP .322 SLG .602 OPS 44.9 PA/BB (-.178)
A. Dirks .350 OBP .430 SLG .780 OPS 12.8 PA/BB vs .315 OBP .374 SLG .689 OPS 15.1 PA/BB (-.091)
E. Suarez .363 OBP .404 SLG .767 OPS 10.8 PA/BB vs ???
A. Jackson .355 OBP .408 SLG .763 OPS 11.3 PA/BB vs .330 OBP 418 SLG .748 OPS 12.2 PA/BB (-.015)
B. Pena .353 OBP .403 SLG .756 OPS 15.5 PA/BB vs .302 OBP .386 SLG .688 OPS 23.2 PA/BB (-.068)
R. Cabrera .362 OBP .393 SLG .755 OPS 10.5 PA/BB vs ???
J. Peralta .349 OBP .404 SLG .753 OPS 10.1 PA/BB vs .324 OBP .411 SLG .735 OPS 11.6 PA/BB (-.018)
B. Inge .326 OBP .427 SLG .753 OPS 10.8 PA/BB vs .291 OBP .351 SLG .650 OPS 13.1 PA/BB (-.103)
T. Hunter .334 OBP .417 SLG .751 OPS 14.7 PA/BB vs .333 OBP .464 SLG .797 OPS 12.8 PA/BB (+.046)
B. Boesch .320 OBP .431 SLG .751 OPS 18.3 PA/BB vs .299 OBP .385 SLG .684 OPS 17.3 PA/BB (-.067)
G. Laird .346 OBP .402 SLG .748 OPS 10.9 PA/BB vs .296 OBP .355 SLG .651 OPS 15.7 PA/BB (-.097)
C. Thomas .340 OBP .408 SLG .748 OPS 10.7 PA/BB vs .283 OBP .293 SLG .576 OPS 11.4 PA/BB (-.172)
D. Kelly .360 OBP .386 SLG .746 OPS 10.2 PA/BB vs .276 OBP .353 SLG .629 OPS 14.3 PA/BB (-.117)
A. Garcia .325 OBP .409 SLG .734 OPS 25.8 PA/BB vs .317 OBP .425 SLG .742 OPS 28.2 PA/BB (+.008)

D. Fields .334 OBP .374 SLG .708 OPS 10.4 PA/BB vs ???
S. Moya .290 OBP .400 SLG .690 OPS 17.9 PA/BB vs ???
R. Santiago .336 OBP .353 SLG .689 OPS 13.7 PA/BB vs .301 OBP .302 SLG .603 OPS 15.2 PA/BB (-.086)
D. Worth .323 OBP .359 SLG .682 OPS 10.9 PA/BB vs ???
O. Infante .330 OBP .348 SLG .678 OPS 14.1 PA/BB vs .322 OBP .419 SLG .741 OPS 20.6 PA/BB (+.063)
B. Holaday .313 OBP .349 SLG .662 OPS 13.6 PA/BB vs ???
H. Perez .297 OBP .345 SLG .642 OPS 20.1 PA/BB vs ???
J. Iglesias .307 OBP .314 SLG .621 OPS 16.8 PA/BB vs .306 OBP .352 SLG .658 OPS 25.6 PA/BB (+.047)

Biggest drop in OPS
S. Lombardozzi -.178 (33.8 drop in walk rate)
C. Maybin -.178 (6.5 drop in walk rate)
C. Thomas -.172 (0.7 drop in walk rate)
I. Kinsler -.157 (0.8 drop in walk rate)
D. Young -.126 (6.2 drop in walk rate)
D. Kelly -.117 (4.1 drop in walk rate)
R. Davis -.114 (6.2 drop in walk rate)

Worst Minor League Walk Rate
A. Garcia 25.8
H. Perez 20.1
D. Young 18.8
B. Boesch 18.3
S. Moya 17.9

Worst MLB Walk Rate
S. Lombardozzi 44.9 PA/BB
A. Garcia 28.2 PA/BB
J. Iglesias 25.6 PA/BB
D. Young 25.0 PA/BB
B. Pena 23.2 PA/BB
O. Infante 20.6 PA/BB
R. Davis 17.5 PA/BB
B. Boesch 17.3 PA/BB

Of the 28 players with MLB stats, only 5 saw increase in OPS from their Minor League.

Of the 28 players with MLB stats, only 4 increased their walk rate

Generally speaking if a player does not have at least a .330 OBP and/or a walk rate less than 13.0, they will not have success offensively at the MLB level. The concern with Castellanos is his higher than desired walk rate in the minors. Most players drop from the Minor League numbers (depending on how much time they spent).

 

[tomdalton22]

I know walks are improtant but it seems like you put more emphasis on walk rate than any other offensive stat.

 

[Rebbiv]

I know walks are improtant but it seems like you put more emphasis on walk rate than any other offensive stat.

1. There is a direct correlation between walk rate and success at the MLB level.
2. Walk rate from the minors can be predictive. The vast majority with a bad walk rate in the minors never make it big in the major.
3. Regression is walk rate can lead to signs of overall regression.

If you don't see it in the numbers I just posted, not sure what else to tell you. Conversely, pitchers who have high walk rates generally don't last.

 

[Mitchrapp]

So players generally do better at the minor league level than the major league level? Shocker..

 

[kalinecountry]

So players generally do better at the minor league level than the major league level? Shocker..

He's talking about walk rates.

 

[tomdalton22]

1. There is a direct correlation between walk rate and success at the MLB level.
2. Walk rate from the minors can be predictive. The vast majority with a bad walk rate in the minors never make it big in the major.
3. Regression is walk rate can lead to signs of overall regression.

If you don't see it in the numbers I just posted, not sure what else to tell you. Conversely, pitchers who have high walk rates generally don't last.

I do understand all of that but it just seems that you concentrate on walk rate for hitters more than any other stat.

 

[kalinecountry]

I do understand all of that but it just seems that you concentrate on walk rate for hitters more than any other stat.

Tom, I always thought Rebbiv's way to figure the good hitters from the not was the OPS away for 3 years if available.
Walk rates are important too, as we are forever bitchin through the years about a player that hacks at the first pitch....so many of them through the years.

Good walk rates means the batter has good strike zone judgement and discipline. Most players the Tigers have drafted through the more recent years haven't had it early on and it's shown.

 

[tomdalton22]

Tom, I always thought Rebbiv's way to figure the good hitters from the not was the OPS away for 3 years if available.
Walk rates are important too, as we are forever bitchin through the years about a player that hacks at the first pitch....so many of them through the years.

Good walk rates means the batter has good strike zone judgement and discipline. Most players the Tigers have drafted through the more recent years haven't had it early on and it's shown.

I hear ya and I really do appreciate Rebbiv's stats etc. but it just seems to me that he really loves his walk rate stats. I am pretty new to saber stats but my favorite by far is OPS.

 

[food4thought]

A couple things to remember when considering Castellanos' numbers in the minors:

He was pretty young for every league he played in, he did very well at every stop with the exception of a midyear callup from Lakeland (where he was hitting over .400 w/ an OPS over 1.000 after 50 games) to Erie in 2012. He really struggled for some reason for the rest of that season in Erie, and you would have thought that he would start at Erie again last year, but instead they bumped him up to AAA Toledo where he held his own pretty well with more home runs and BB per PA ( still over 10 pa per BB, but not bad) than he had shown at any other level. The only knock on his Toledo resume was that he faded quite a bit in July and August, especially in July. Also remember that he had a position switch to adjust to as well at some point... was it 2011 or 2012? If he had stayed at Lakeland in 2012, and then moved to Erie (normally a great league for hitters) instead of Toledo in 2013, his minor league numbers would likely be much, much better.

I just think we'll have to wait and see... considering his upside and how aggressive Detroit was in advancing him, I don't think it's out of the question for him to be one of those rare guys who ends up posting better numbers in the majors. Probably not this year, but I could easily see him being a guy with a mid to high .800's OPS at the MLB level during his peak years.

JMO

 

[Thumb]

OPS is not really much of a sabermetric. It's just the combination of OBP + SLG, I like OPS, but one of the core parts of it is getting on base (OBP) which relates to a players walk rate (otherwise it would just basically be BAVG) so even without knowing it, you are relying on walk rate at a stat.

EDIT: this was meant for Tom, did not realize someone had posted just before me.

 

[gotime909]

A couple things to remember when considering Castellanos' numbers in the minors:

He was pretty young for every league he played in, he did very well at every stop with the exception of a midyear callup from Lakeland (where he was hitting over .400 w/ an OPS over 1.000 after 50 games) to Erie in 2012. He really struggled for some reason for the rest of that season in Erie, and you would have thought that he would start at Erie again last year, but instead they bumped him up to AAA Toledo where he held his own pretty well with more home runs and BB per PA ( still over 10 pa per BB, but not bad) than he had shown at any other level. The only knock on his Toledo resume was that he faded quite a bit in July and August, especially in July. Also remember that he had a position switch to adjust to as well at some point... was it 2011 or 2012? If he had stayed at Lakeland in 2012, and then moved to Erie (normally a great league for hitters) instead of Toledo in 2013, his minor league numbers would likely be much, much better.

I just think we'll have to wait and see... considering his upside and how aggressive Detroit was in advancing him, I don't think it's out of the question for him to be one of those rare guys who ends up posting better numbers in the majors. Probably not this year, but I could easily see him being a guy with a mid to high .800's OPS at the MLB level during his peak years.

JMO

Generally AA is where your "best" prospects are. That jump from A to AA I'd imagine is the biggest jump in talent. Might explain his struggles there.

 

[gotime909]

Career Minor Leagues versus Career MLB Away

P. Fielder .398 OBP .524 SLG .922 OPS 9.1 PA/BB vs .377 OBP .502 SLG .879 OPS 10.6 PA/BB (-.043)
V. Martinez .392 OBP .489 SLG .881 OPS 10.6 PA/BB vs .362 OBP .465 SLG .827 OPS 13.0 PA/BB (-.054)
C. Granderson .382 OBP .493 SLG .875 OPS 9.8 PA/BB vs .342 OBP .496 SLG .838 OPS 10.3 PA/BB (-.037)
D. Young .360 OBP .514 SLG .874 OPS 18.8 PA/BB vs .323 OBP .425 SLG .748 OPS 25.0 PA/BB (-.126)
C. Maybin .393 OBP .479 SLG .872 OPS 8.4 PA/BB vs .308 OBP .386 SLG .694 OPS 14.9 PA/BB (-.178)
I. Kinsler .376 OBP .492 SLG .868 OPS 11.3 PA/BB vs .312 OBP .399 SLG .711 OPS 12.1 PA/BB (-.157)
R. Raburn .359 OBP .495 SLG .854 OPS 9.8 PA/BB vs .330 OBP .453 SLG .783 OPS 14.5 PA/BB (-.071)
S. Sizemore .388 OBP .453 SLG .841 OPS 8.9 PA/BB vs .336 OBP .397 SLG .733 OPS 7.8 PA/BB (-.108)
C. Wells .345 OBP .493 SLG .838 OPS 10.4 PA/BB vs .312 OBP .433 SLG .745 OPS 13.8 PA/BB (-.093)
M. Joyce .362 OBP .466 SLG .828 OPS 8.8 PA/BB vs .334 OBP .467 SLG .801 OPS 9.6 PA (-.027)
J. Lennerton .379 OBP .438 SLG .817 OPS 7.5 PA/BB vs ???
N. Castellanos .359 OBP .445 SLG .804 OPS 13.3 PA/BB vs ???
A. Avila .372 OBP .422 SLG .794 OPS 7.9 PA/BB vs .333 OBP .368 SLG .701 OPS 8.1 PA/BB (-.091)
R. Davis .375 OBP .409 SLG .784 OPS 11.3 PA/BB vs .317 OBP .353 SLG .670 OPS 17.5 PA/BB (-.114)
M. Cabrera .350 OBP .431 SLG .781 OPS 12.2 PA/BB vs .391 OBP .555 SLG .946 OPS 11.6 PA/BB (+.165)
S. Lombardozzi .369 OBP .411 SLG .780 OPS 11.1 PA/BB vs .280 OBP .322 SLG .602 OPS 44.9 PA/BB (-.178)
A. Dirks .350 OBP .430 SLG .780 OPS 12.8 PA/BB vs .315 OBP .374 SLG .689 OPS 15.1 PA/BB (-.091)
E. Suarez .363 OBP .404 SLG .767 OPS 10.8 PA/BB vs ???
A. Jackson .355 OBP .408 SLG .763 OPS 11.3 PA/BB vs .330 OBP 418 SLG .748 OPS 12.2 PA/BB (-.015)
B. Pena .353 OBP .403 SLG .756 OPS 15.5 PA/BB vs .302 OBP .386 SLG .688 OPS 23.2 PA/BB (-.068)
R. Cabrera .362 OBP .393 SLG .755 OPS 10.5 PA/BB vs ???
J. Peralta .349 OBP .404 SLG .753 OPS 10.1 PA/BB vs .324 OBP .411 SLG .735 OPS 11.6 PA/BB (-.018)
B. Inge .326 OBP .427 SLG .753 OPS 10.8 PA/BB vs .291 OBP .351 SLG .650 OPS 13.1 PA/BB (-.103)
T. Hunter .334 OBP .417 SLG .751 OPS 14.7 PA/BB vs .333 OBP .464 SLG .797 OPS 12.8 PA/BB (+.046)
B. Boesch .320 OBP .431 SLG .751 OPS 18.3 PA/BB vs .299 OBP .385 SLG .684 OPS 17.3 PA/BB (-.067)
G. Laird .346 OBP .402 SLG .748 OPS 10.9 PA/BB vs .296 OBP .355 SLG .651 OPS 15.7 PA/BB (-.097)
C. Thomas .340 OBP .408 SLG .748 OPS 10.7 PA/BB vs .283 OBP .293 SLG .576 OPS 11.4 PA/BB (-.172)
D. Kelly .360 OBP .386 SLG .746 OPS 10.2 PA/BB vs .276 OBP .353 SLG .629 OPS 14.3 PA/BB (-.117)
A. Garcia .325 OBP .409 SLG .734 OPS 25.8 PA/BB vs .317 OBP .425 SLG .742 OPS 28.2 PA/BB (+.008)

D. Fields .334 OBP .374 SLG .708 OPS 10.4 PA/BB vs ???
S. Moya .290 OBP .400 SLG .690 OPS 17.9 PA/BB vs ???
R. Santiago .336 OBP .353 SLG .689 OPS 13.7 PA/BB vs .301 OBP .302 SLG .603 OPS 15.2 PA/BB (-.086)
D. Worth .323 OBP .359 SLG .682 OPS 10.9 PA/BB vs ???
O. Infante .330 OBP .348 SLG .678 OPS 14.1 PA/BB vs .322 OBP .419 SLG .741 OPS 20.6 PA/BB (+.063)
B. Holaday .313 OBP .349 SLG .662 OPS 13.6 PA/BB vs ???
H. Perez .297 OBP .345 SLG .642 OPS 20.1 PA/BB vs ???
J. Iglesias .307 OBP .314 SLG .621 OPS 16.8 PA/BB vs .306 OBP .352 SLG .658 OPS 25.6 PA/BB (+.047)

Biggest drop in OPS
S. Lombardozzi -.178 (33.8 drop in walk rate)
C. Maybin -.178 (6.5 drop in walk rate)
C. Thomas -.172 (0.7 drop in walk rate)
I. Kinsler -.157 (0.8 drop in walk rate)
D. Young -.126 (6.2 drop in walk rate)
D. Kelly -.117 (4.1 drop in walk rate)
R. Davis -.114 (6.2 drop in walk rate)

Worst Minor League Walk Rate
A. Garcia 25.8
H. Perez 20.1
D. Young 18.8
B. Boesch 18.3
S. Moya 17.9

Worst MLB Walk Rate
S. Lombardozzi 44.9 PA/BB
A. Garcia 28.2 PA/BB
J. Iglesias 25.6 PA/BB
D. Young 25.0 PA/BB
B. Pena 23.2 PA/BB
O. Infante 20.6 PA/BB
R. Davis 17.5 PA/BB
B. Boesch 17.3 PA/BB

Of the 28 players with MLB stats, only 5 saw increase in OPS from their Minor League.

Of the 28 players with MLB stats, only 4 increased their walk rate

Generally speaking if a player does not have at least a .330 OBP and/or a walk rate less than 13.0, they will not have success offensively at the MLB level. The concern with Castellanos is his higher than desired walk rate in the minors. Most players drop from the Minor League numbers (depending on how much time they spent).

Excellent info Reb!

Also, apparently Miggy was once human

 

[Rebbiv]

Tom, if the data is there (sample rate), at the MLB level, I mostly post last 3 years away. Those stats include Runs Created Per 650 Plate Appearances, OPS and Walk Rate. Sometimes I omit walk rate (depends how lazy I am that day).

Now, when dealing with Minor League numbers, which can be predictive, walk rates are the key. Once or twice in 10 years you get a player that can improve their walk rate, but it is rare. And generally they do not improve their minor OPS.

With that said. Despite all the hoping in the world and without PEDs, Austin Jackson isn't going from a .763 Career Minor OPS to a .800+ MLB OPS as a #5 or #6 hitter WITHOUT improving his walk rate. Is it possible for him to post a .800+ MLB OPS season? Yes. But without the walk increase, he won't maintain it.

Same with anyone that average say .265 BAVG. They might hit .300 BAVG one season, but it doesn't mean they changed. Look at the walk rate. If the walk rate significantly improved also, then they are more apt to maintain the improvement. Otherwise it is known as a "fluke" season. When a player improves BAVG 25 points above career norm, they have a 5% chance of maintaining without significant improvement in walk rate. If there is a significant improvement in walk rate, then there is a 75% chance of maintaining the improvement.

Jackson's career BAVG sits at .272 BAVG. For him to become a ".300 hitter", he has to significantly improve his walk rate. At age 27, generally speaking, that boat has sailed.

Now, take a look at Torii Hunter's line. He improved the walk rate over his career. But his last two years have been 15.8 PA/BB and 25.1 PA/BB. Those are indication that he is about to regress big time with the rest of his stats.

Now, most males frontal lobe (mental) does not fully mature until age 25 or 26. It is then why peak years are from 26-32. That is when a male is at his mental and physical peak. There is not a lot of evidence to show MLB players improving their walk rate after age 26.

Nick Castellanos is only 22. He has a few years to have a chance to improve his walk rate

OPS is a good, easy comparison stat.

Walk Rate is a good, easy somewhat predictive stat.

Last caveat. Players in the minors can be biased by age at a certain level and the league in which they played (pitcher friendly, hitter friendly). As with all stats, they are a guide. There is no absolutes, so anything is possible, even if it is unlikely.

 

[jdeb]

Good stuff. Jackson had that anomaly 2012. Proof be told in the .109 BB/PA which led all AL CF's. We are all hoping he returns to that but that is a big hope.

 

[food4thought]

Generally AA is where your "best" prospects are. That jump from A to AA I'd imagine is the biggest jump in talent. Might explain his struggles there.

True, but if I remember correctly that particular AA league is also known for quite a few hitter friendly parks and has a history of inflating offensive stats... which is why it is surprising and disturbing to me that he struggled so much in his short time there.

Could it have been at that time that they did the position switch? Just looking for possible mitigating factors.

 

[Rebbiv]

True, but if I remember correctly that particular AA league is also known for quite a few hitter friendly parks and has a history of inflating offensive stats... which is why it is surprising and disturbing to me that he struggled so much in his short time there.

Could it have been at that time that they did the position switch? Just looking for possible mitigating factors.

Castellanos' Walk Rates

A = 13.0 PA/BB

A+ = 11.5 PA/BB

AA = 26.2 PA/BB

AAA = 11.4 PA/BB

Switching positions have nothing to do with the change in walk rate. There was something that created this. Hitting coach telling him to be "aggressive"? Manager?

It has nothing to do with the environment either (league, park, etc). None of those explain his change in patience.

 

[Rebbiv]

Player A = .362 OBP .372 SLG .734 OPS 8.4 PA/BB vs .341 OBP .408 SLG .749 OPS 12.5 PA/BB

Player B = .374 OBP .353 SLG .727 OPS 8.0 PA/BB vs .357 OBP .405 SLG .762 OPS 9.4 PA/BB

Both played for the 1984 team. Both were young (19/20) when they were brought up.

Finally

L. Parrish .321 OBP .411 SLG .732 OPS 10.2 PA/BB vs .308 OBP .435 SLG .743 OPS 14.6 PA/BB

Parrish was another young (21/22) call up.

Younger players might not increase their OBP from the minors, but good odd are they will increase SLG (especially when their bodies fill out).

Player A = Trammell

Player B = Whitaker