My Post Regular Season Off-Season Plan

[detroit1811]

I really do think we are really close to building a legitimate top 5 NFL team, but we still do have some glaring holes. I think plugging a rookie into all those holes is a dangerous proposition if we want to field a contender in 2023. I think it would be a mistake if this regime just completely stood pat in FA and stuck to 1 year prove it deals. That doesn?t mean we need to splurge, but this defense needs a couple veterans to stabilize it, IMO. So for those that want to take the time to see what my opinion is, here it goes.

Off-Season Cuts/Restructures

Cut Michael Brockers (10mil Cap Savings)
Restructure Halapoulivaati Vatai (Eliminate 2024, 2023 Base Salary Goes From 9.4mil to 4mil, 2.5mil Cap Savings as 2024 Dead Money Accelerates)
Restructure Romeo Okwara (Slash 2023 Base Salary From 11mil to 6mil, 5mil Cap Savings)
Restruture Charles Harris (Slash Base Salary From 6mil to 3mil, 3mil Cap Savings)
Restructure Frank Ragnow (Convert 10mil of His Base Salary Into a Bonus Creating 7.5mil in Space)
Restructure Taylor Decker (Convert 12mil of His Base Salary Into a Bonus Creating 8mil in Space)

That is a total savings of 36mil. It may not seem realistic that all three of these guys come back on pay cuts, but I wouldn?t count it out. This staff has singled out all three of these players as guys they really like at one point in time. I don?t believe that has changed. The facts are all three represent significant cost savings if cut and have an exorbitant base salary. Coming off the injuries they are, none of them are worth the money they are currently making. Does anyone here think Harris can get more than 3mil on the open market? What about Vatai getting more than 4mil coming off back surgery? Anybody else committing 6mil to Romeo just one year removed from his achilles? I think the staff will want these guys back at the right price and I believe all three want to come back. This is the middle ground. Walker was another one to consider, but he actually holds the cards as we would incur more costs by cutting him so i don?t think that is an option.

Re-Signings

DJ Chark, 3 years 36mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 8mil
Jamaal Williams, 3 Years 15mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 3mil
Isaiah Buggs, 3 Years 9mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 2mil
John Cominsky, 4 Years 24mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 3.25mil
DeShon Elliot, 3 Years 18mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 4mil
Will Harris, 2 Years 5mil,Year 1 Cap Hit 2mil
Alex Anzalone, 2 Years 8mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 3mil
Justin Jackson, 1 Year 1.25mil

I have us re-signing most of our guys as I believe a lot of these guys are the ?glue guys? Campbell references. I believe a loaded safety market will keep Elliot?s cost down.

Free Agency

Javon Hargrave, DT - 3 Years 45mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 10mil - This is my splash signing. We likely won?t have a shot at Carter and I?m not sold on any of DT prospects. We absolutely need a DT who can be a force rushing the passer next year. Da?Ron Payne will get way overpaid due to his age and the position he plays. I think Payne is a good player, but not worth the 20mil+ he is going to get. Hargrave is pushing 30, but shows no signs of slowing down. He has been consistent throughout his career and fits the hard working gritty mindset this staff loves. On top of that he has the 3rd best pass rush grade per PFF of all interior defenders. This guys transforms this DLine, and entire defense from day 1, IMO. Guarantee all his 1st and 2nd year salaries to keep the signing bonus down so you have an out in year 3 once he turns 32.

Rashad Fenton, CB - 1 Year, 4mil - See below from PFF. He needs to rehab his value somewhere he can play to his strengths and have a good opportunity to start. He is a tough physical CB in run support as well which is important for this staff. Falls in line with the one year prove it deals we tend to hand out.

Fenton has quietly been highly reliable over his three-year NFL career. Despite being a sixth-round pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, the former South Carolina Gamecock owns the second-highest career coverage grade among cornerbacks in that class (83.0). He fell in the draft partly because of subpar physical traits for NFL standards, but that hasn?t been an issue. His tackling stands out more than any other part of his game, as he has missed just twice on 103 attempts since 2019.

Gardner Minshew, QB - 2 Years, 8mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 3mil - The backup QB market is loaded this year. Minshew is my favorite of the bunch and I think him and Campbell would be a very good personality fit.

Matt Gay, K - 4 Years 16mil, Year 1 Cap hit 2.5mil - We expect to be a very good team next year. We cannot play games trying to find a kicker on the cheap or rely on a rookie. Bagley was decent, but he has a weak leg and even though his percentage was solid his kicks didn?y always seem clean. Don?t overthink this, invest in a reliable kicker.

NFL Draft

#6 Overall - TRADE The Lions trade their #6 (1600), #59 (310), and #81 (185) to the Texans for #12 (1200), #33 (580), #73 (225), and #103 (88) The Lions move up in a couple rounds and grab a 4th and the Texans get to move up for Queinton Johnston to pair with their new QB.

#12 Overall - Bijan Robinson, RB - This guy takes this offense to another level. I was originally against this for many reasons, but after stewing on this I just think it makes too much sense.

#18 Overall - Brian Branch, CB - It feels like all the top CB?s have question marks one way or another. branch feels like one of the safest picks and I truly think he could be an elite nickeback. In today?s NFL, your nickelback still plays over 70% of the snaps. He also has the size to be an outside CB as well.

#33 Overall - Devon Witherspoon, CB - We need serious help at CB next season. I would not be surprised one bit to see the Lions grab two CB?s in the first three rounds. I really like Witherspoon as a prospect and adding him and Branch would be huge for this secondary.

#48 Overall - O?Cyrus Torrence, G - Can come in from day 1 in our heavy packages and contribute and will compete with Vatai to start. This kid is a road grader and having Ragnow, Torrence, and Sewell on that right side would be very intimidating.

#73 Overall - Jack Campbell, LB?er - We need a more traditonal MLB to replace Anzalone by 2024 at the latest. Campell would not need to be rushed into action and can learn behind a solid vetern presence in Anzalone.

#103 Overall - Keanu Benton, NT - We need another big body in the middle to clog up running lanes. I don?t see a ton of upside here, but his floor as a very good run defender in obvious running downs is good enough at this point in the draft.

#152 Overall - Cameron Ward, QB - We need a developmental QB on this roster. Ward is very raw, but possesses enough NFL traits to develop into a quality player.

#181 Overall - Puka Nacua, WR - We need to bring in some young WR talent late in the draft this year as both Reynolds and Raymond are FA in 2024. This kid has some long term potential, but is unlikely to make a year 1 impact.

#192 Overall - Carter Warren, OT - We need better depth behind Decker and Penei. I haven?t dove into this class enough, but I like what I?ve seen so far from this kid in the later rounds.

2023 NFL 53 Man Roster

Offense

QB - Jared Goff ($30,650,000), Gardner Minshew ($3,000,000), Cameron Ward ($836,223)

RB - Bijan Robinson ($3,437,878), Jamaal Williams ($3,000,000), D?Andre Swift ($2,716,929), Justin Jackson ($1,250,000)

FB - Jason Cabinda ($2,565,000)

TE - James Mitchell ($930,639), Brock Wright ($940,000), Shane Zylstra (940,000)

WR - Amon Ra St-Brown ($1,136,315), Jameson Williams ($3,968,589), DJ Chark ($14,321,666), Josh Reynolds ($4,000,000), Kalif Raymond ($3,025,000), Puka Nacua ($803,835)

LT - Taylor Decker ($11,350,000), Carter Warren ($797,575)

LG - Jonah Jackson ($1,478,278), Tommy Kraemer ($940,000)

C - Frank Ragnow ($8,875,000)

RG - Halapoulivaati Vatai ($9,996,388), O?Cyrus Torrence ($1,408,341)

RT - Penei Sewell ($6,572,473)

Defense

Edge - Aidan Hutchinson ($8,116,679), James Houston ($945,000), John Cominsky ($3,250,000), Romeo Okwara ($9,500,000), Josh Pascal ($1,758,104), Charles Harris ($4,988,333)

DT - Alim McNeil ($1,398,88), Javon Hargrave ($10,000,000), Isaiah Buggs ($2,000,000, Levi Onwuzurike ($2,222,425), Keanu Benton ($971,853)

LB?er - Malcolm Rodriguez ($916,982), Derrick Barnes ($1,135,302), Alex Anzalone ($3,000,000), Jack Campbell ($1,043,923),

CB - Jeff Okudah ($10,668,167), Jerry Jacobs ($941,168, Rashad Fenton ($4,000,000), Brian Branch ($2,826,034), Devon Witherspoon ($1,811,263), Will Harris ($2,000,000)

S - Kerby Joseph ($1,146,569), DeShon Elliot(4,000,000), Tracy Walker (11,321,666), Ifeatu Melifonwu ($1,305,232)

Specialists

K - Matt Gay ($2,500,000)
P - Jack Fox ($3,565,000)
LS - Scott Daly ($940,000)
KR - Justin Jackson
PR - Kalif Raymond

That would be a total of $216,295,635 committed to player contracts with an additional $4,273,770 in dead money bringing our total cap commitment to $220,569,405. That would leave us with about 7mil for practice squad and in season moves. Obviously these numbers will change some once they finalize the official cpa numbers for each team before the new league year. I just wanted to lay everything out to see what we are working with and what moves may be realistic or not. Thanks for all those who took the time to read all that and I understand if you didn?t.

By my count we would have 37 players under contract for 2024 with about 40mil in cap space, and that incudes picking up Jeff Okudahs 11.3mil option and all the contracts I laid out.

 

[boogerlovejoy]

I really do think we are really close to building a legitimate top 5 NFL team, but we still do have some glaring holes. I think plugging a rookie into all those holes is a dangerous proposition if we want to field a contender in 2023. I think it would be a mistake if this regime just completely stood pat in FA and stuck to 1 year prove it deals. That doesn?t mean we need to splurge, but this defense needs a couple veterans to stabilize it, IMO. So for those that want to take the time to see what my opinion is, here it goes.

Off-Season Cuts/Restructures

Cut Michael Brockers (10mil Cap Savings)
Restructure Halapoulivaati Vatai (Eliminate 2024, 2023 Base Salary Goes From 9.4mil to 4mil, 2.5mil Cap Savings as 2024 Dead Money Accelerates)
Restructure Romeo Okwara (Slash 2023 Base Salary From 11mil to 6mil, 5mil Cap Savings)
Restruture Charles Harris (Slash Base Salary From 6mil to 3mil, 3mil Cap Savings)
Restructure Frank Ragnow (Convert 10mil of His Base Salary Into a Bonus Creating 7.5mil in Space)
Restructure Taylor Decker (Convert 12mil of His Base Salary Into a Bonus Creating 8mil in Space)

That is a total savings of 36mil. It may not seem realistic that all three of these guys come back on pay cuts, but I wouldn?t count it out. This staff has singled out all three of these players as guys they really like at one point in time. I don?t believe that has changed. The facts are all three represent significant cost savings if cut and have an exorbitant base salary. Coming off the injuries they are, none of them are worth the money they are currently making. Does anyone here think Harris can get more than 3mil on the open market? What about Vatai getting more than 4mil coming off back surgery? Anybody else committing 6mil to Romeo just one year removed from his achilles? I think the staff will want these guys back at the right price and I believe all three want to come back. This is the middle ground. Walker was another one to consider, but he actually holds the cards as we would incur more costs by cutting him so i don?t think that is an option.

Re-Signings

DJ Chark, 3 years 36mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 8mil
Jamaal Williams, 3 Years 15mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 3mil
Isaiah Buggs, 3 Years 9mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 2mil
John Cominsky, 4 Years 24mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 3.25mil
DeShon Elliot, 3 Years 18mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 4mil
Will Harris, 2 Years 5mil,Year 1 Cap Hit 2mil
Alex Anzalone, 2 Years 8mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 3mil
Justin Jackson, 1 Year 1.25mil

I have us re-signing most of our guys as I believe a lot of these guys are the ?glue guys? Campbell references. I believe a loaded safety market will keep Elliot?s cost down.

Free Agency

Javon Hargrave, DT - 3 Years 45mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 10mil - This is my splash signing. We likely won?t have a shot at Carter and I?m not sold on any of DT prospects. We absolutely need a DT who can be a force rushing the passer next year. Da?Ron Payne will get way overpaid due to his age and the position he plays. I think Payne is a good player, but not worth the 20mil+ he is going to get. Hargrave is pushing 30, but shows no signs of slowing down. He has been consistent throughout his career and fits the hard working gritty mindset this staff loves. On top of that he has the 3rd best pass rush grade per PFF of all interior defenders. This guys transforms this DLine, and entire defense from day 1, IMO. Guarantee all his 1st and 2nd year salaries to keep the signing bonus down so you have an out in year 3 once he turns 32.

Rashad Fenton, CB - 1 Year, 4mil - See below from PFF. He needs to rehab his value somewhere he can play to his strengths and have a good opportunity to start. He is a tough physical CB in run support as well which is important for this staff. Falls in line with the one year prove it deals we tend to hand out.

Fenton has quietly been highly reliable over his three-year NFL career. Despite being a sixth-round pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, the former South Carolina Gamecock owns the second-highest career coverage grade among cornerbacks in that class (83.0). He fell in the draft partly because of subpar physical traits for NFL standards, but that hasn?t been an issue. His tackling stands out more than any other part of his game, as he has missed just twice on 103 attempts since 2019.

Gardner Minshew, QB - 2 Years, 8mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 3mil - The backup QB market is loaded this year. Minshew is my favorite of the bunch and I think him and Campbell would be a very good personality fit.

Matt Gay, K - 4 Years 16mil, Year 1 Cap hit 2.5mil - We expect to be a very good team next year. We cannot play games trying to find a kicker on the cheap or rely on a rookie. Bagley was decent, but he has a weak leg and even though his percentage was solid his kicks didn?y always seem clean. Don?t overthink this, invest in a reliable kicker.

NFL Draft

#6 Overall - TRADE The Lions trade their #6 (1600), #59 (310), and #81 (185) to the Texans for #12 (1200), #33 (580), #73 (225), and #103 (88) The Lions move up in a couple rounds and grab a 4th and the Texans get to move up for Queinton Johnston to pair with their new QB.

#12 Overall - Bijan Robinson, RB - This guy takes this offense to another level. I was originally against this for many reasons, but after stewing on this I just think it makes too much sense.

#18 Overall - Brian Branch, CB - It feels like all the top CB?s have question marks one way or another. branch feels like one of the safest picks and I truly think he could be an elite nickeback. In today?s NFL, your nickelback still plays over 70% of the snaps. He also has the size to be an outside CB as well.

#33 Overall - Devon Witherspoon, CB - We need serious help at CB next season. I would not be surprised one bit to see the Lions grab two CB?s in the first three rounds. I really like Witherspoon as a prospect and adding him and Branch would be huge for this secondary.

#48 Overall - O?Cyrus Torrence, G - Can come in from day 1 in our heavy packages and contribute and will compete with Vatai to start. This kid is a road grader and having Ragnow, Torrence, and Sewell on that right side would be very intimidating.

#73 Overall - Jack Campbell, LB?er - We need a more traditonal MLB to replace Anzalone by 2024 at the latest. Campell would not need to be rushed into action and can learn behind a solid vetern presence in Anzalone.

#103 Overall - Keanu Benton, NT - We need another big body in the middle to clog up running lanes. I don?t see a ton of upside here, but his floor as a very good run defender in obvious running downs is good enough at this point in the draft.

#152 Overall - Cameron Ward, QB - We need a developmental QB on this roster. Ward is very raw, but possesses enough NFL traits to develop into a quality player.

#181 Overall - Puka Nacua, WR - We need to bring in some young WR talent late in the draft this year as both Reynolds and Raymond are FA in 2024. This kid has some long term potential, but is unlikely to make a year 1 impact.

#192 Overall - Carter Warren, OT - We need better depth behind Decker and Penei. I haven?t dove into this class enough, but I like what I?ve seen so far from this kid in the later rounds.

2023 NFL 53 Man Roster

Offense

QB - Jared Goff ($30,650,000), Gardner Minshew ($3,000,000), Cameron Ward ($836,223)

RB - Bijan Robinson ($3,437,878), Jamaal Williams ($3,000,000), D?Andre Swift ($2,716,929), Justin Jackson ($1,250,000)

FB - Jason Cabinda ($2,565,000)

TE - James Mitchell ($930,639), Brock Wright ($940,000), Shane Zylstra (940,000)

WR - Amon Ra St-Brown ($1,136,315), Jameson Williams ($3,968,589), DJ Chark ($14,321,666), Josh Reynolds ($4,000,000), Kalif Raymond ($3,025,000), Puka Nacua ($803,835)

LT - Taylor Decker ($11,350,000), Carter Warren ($797,575)

LG - Jonah Jackson ($1,478,278), Tommy Kraemer ($940,000)

C - Frank Ragnow ($8,875,000)

RG - Halapoulivaati Vatai ($9,996,388), O?Cyrus Torrence ($1,408,341)

RT - Penei Sewell ($6,572,473)

Defense

Edge - Aidan Hutchinson ($8,116,679), James Houston ($945,000), John Cominsky ($3,250,000), Romeo Okwara ($9,500,000), Josh Pascal ($1,758,104), Charles Harris ($4,988,333)

DT - Alim McNeil ($1,398,88), Javon Hargrave ($10,000,000), Isaiah Buggs ($2,000,000, Levi Onwuzurike ($2,222,425), Keanu Benton ($971,853)

LB?er - Malcolm Rodriguez ($916,982), Derrick Barnes ($1,135,302), Alex Anzalone ($3,000,000), Jack Campbell ($1,043,923),

CB - Jeff Okudah ($10,668,167), Jerry Jacobs ($941,168, Rashad Fenton ($4,000,000), Brian Branch ($2,826,034), Devon Witherspoon ($1,811,263), Will Harris ($2,000,000)

S - Kerby Joseph ($1,146,569), DeShon Elliot(4,000,000), Tracy Walker (11,321,666), Ifeatu Melifonwu ($1,305,232)

Specialists

K - Matt Gay ($2,500,000)
P - Jack Fox ($3,565,000)
LS - Scott Daly ($940,000)
KR - Justin Jackson
PR - Kalif Raymond

That would be a total of $216,295,635 committed to player contracts with an additional $4,273,770 in dead money bringing our total cap commitment to $220,569,405. That would leave us with about 7mil for practice squad and in season moves. Obviously these numbers will change some once they finalize the official cpa numbers for each team before the new league year. I just wanted to lay everything out to see what we are working with and what moves may be realistic or not. Thanks for all those who took the time to read all that and I understand if you didn?t.

By my count we would have 37 players under contract for 2024 with about 40mil in cap space, and that incudes picking up Jeff Okudahs 11.3mil option and all the contracts I laid out.

Holy shit, well done. That's some good stuff.

Love the Bijon Robinson pick. He's Swift plus some. He would make this offense even more dangerous. Like Swift would, if he could stay healthy past 20 touches.

Only difference I would make is that I would re-sign Hughes. Instead of drafting 2 CB's I would take the best available S in round 2 or 3. I don't like the overall athleticism in the S room on this team. It's ok. A guy like Jammie Robinson would be amazing. Top tier athleticism. Good tackler. Difference maker in coverage.

Other than that. I love it.

 

[detroit1811]

Holy shit, well done. That's some good stuff.

Love the Bijon Robinson pick. He's Swift plus some. He would make this offense even more dangerous. Like Swift would, if he could stay healthy past 20 touches.

Only difference I would make is that I would re-sign Hughes. Instead of drafting 2 CB's I would take the best available S in round 2 or 3. I don't like the overall athleticism in the S room on this team. It's ok. A guy like Jammie Robinson would be amazing. Top tier athleticism. Good tackler. Difference maker in coverage.

Other than that. I love it.

I had some time to kill today and I was bored .

I honestly thought about Hughes, but its just more of the same. If we re-signed Hughes I wouldn't bring back Harris, but I think the coaches like Harris more. We have had terrible CB's for too long now. I want to overhaul that group like the Chiefs did to their O-Line a cuple years back. I want a vet and two young guys.

I honestly think we will be alright at safety if Elliot comes back. Kerby Joseph is a very athletic safety who can fly around. Elliot is your box safety that flies to the ball in run support. Walker is supposedly ahead of schedule and already running, so maybe we get him back by opening day. Walker is the leader of that secondary and bit of a jack of all trade, master of none (his ball skills do suck though). Then you have the X-Factor in Melifonwu. He struggled in hs first start and looked really good in his 2nd. Kid has the size and athleticism players dream of. If he can take a step he would be a nice chess piece to line up over athletic TE's.

Walker's health and Elliot returning are big factors here. I wouldn't be mad at a safety, but if we re-sign Ellior we will have drafted two safeties in the 3rd and signed two to long term contracts.

 

[detroit1811]

Holy shit, well done. That's some good stuff.

Love the Bijon Robinson pick. He's Swift plus some. He would make this offense even more dangerous. Like Swift would, if he could stay healthy past 20 touches.

Only difference I would make is that I would re-sign Hughes. Instead of drafting 2 CB's I would take the best available S in round 2 or 3. I don't like the overall athleticism in the S room on this team. It's ok. A guy like Jammie Robinson would be amazing. Top tier athleticism. Good tackler. Difference maker in coverage.

Other than that. I love it.

I was 100% against taking a RB in the 1st for a long time. Bijan is just such a special player and it would be a waste to not get an elite back to run behind what may be the best run blocking OLine in the league.

Swift will get injured again it is just a matter of when. As much as I love Jamaal and he fills his role perfectly, he is a role player, not a feautured back.

Bijan could take this offense to the next level, IMO.

 

[LKP]

Hargrave i see has a market value of 20 per. Thats crazy. Would love him at that amount..he is a very good player and would make our defense awesome

 

[detroit1811]

Hargrave i see has a market value of 20 per. Thats crazy. Would love him at that amount..he is a very good player and would make our defense awesome

I'd assume you got that off spotrac? Their estimated numbers are usually a joke. They have DeShon Elliot over 10mil AAV They have Da'Ron Payne at less than Hargrave which would blow me away considering both their age.

Hargrave to me is exactly what this defense needs this off-season and is a perfect fit. Duce Staley was in Philly with him as well so he should know whether or not he is a culture fit.

 

[mhughes0021]

This video gives alot more context than traditional highlight videos. Bijans lateral quickness is insane.

https://youtu.be/cAFge73BlCg

 

[boogerlovejoy]

This video gives alot more context than traditional highlight videos. Bijans lateral quickness is insane.

https://youtu.be/cAFge73BlCg

Damn it, guys. Knock it off. Don?t get my hopes up.

 

[biggunsbob]

Great thread. Thanks !

 

[detroit1811]

This video gives alot more context than traditional highlight videos. Bijans lateral quickness is insane.

https://youtu.be/cAFge73BlCg

He is a game changer, IMO. Combine Robinson with Chark and Jamo?s speed on the outside and St Brown working the middle. This offense could be the best in the league, IMO and that?s a bold statement.

 

[mhughes0021]

#6 Overall - TRADE The Lions trade their #6 (1600), #59 (310), and #81 (185) to the Texans for #12 (1200), #33 (580), #73 (225), and #103 (88) The Lions move up in a couple rounds and grab a 4th and the Texans get to move up for Queinton Johnston to pair with their new QB.

#12 Overall - Bijan Robinson, RB - This guy takes this offense to another level. I was originally against this for many reasons, but after stewing on this I just think it makes too much sense.

#18 Overall - Brian Branch, CB - It feels like all the top CB?s have question marks one way or another. branch feels like one of the safest picks and I truly think he could be an elite nickeback. In today?s NFL, your nickelback still plays over 70% of the snaps. He also has the size to be an outside CB as well.

#33 Overall - Devon Witherspoon, CB - We need serious help at CB next season. I would not be surprised one bit to see the Lions grab two CB?s in the first three rounds. I really like Witherspoon as a prospect and adding him and Branch would be huge for this secondary.

#48 Overall - O?Cyrus Torrence, G - Can come in from day 1 in our heavy packages and contribute and will compete with Vatai to start. This kid is a road grader and having Ragnow, Torrence, and Sewell on that right side would be very intimidating.

#73 Overall - Jack Campbell, LB?er - We need a more traditonal MLB to replace Anzalone by 2024 at the latest. Campell would not need to be rushed into action and can learn behind a solid vetern presence in Anzalone.

#103 Overall - Keanu Benton, NT - We need another big body in the middle to clog up running lanes. I don?t see a ton of upside here, but his floor as a very good run defender in obvious running downs is good enough at this point in the draft.

#152 Overall - Cameron Ward, QB - We need a developmental QB on this roster. Ward is very raw, but possesses enough NFL traits to develop into a quality player.

#181 Overall - Puka Nacua, WR - We need to bring in some young WR talent late in the draft this year as both Reynolds and Raymond are FA in 2024. This kid has some long term potential, but is unlikely to make a year 1 impact.

#192 Overall - Carter Warren, OT - We need better depth behind Decker and Penei. I haven?t dove into this class enough, but I like what I?ve seen so far from this kid in the later .

Nice work 1811! I'd love this draft trade... I'm not high on picks 6-10. Good players but the value doesn't meet any of our needs.

12 Joey Porter Jr CB or Cam Smith CB
(Haven't decided who I want more yet)
Edit... after 10 minutes of YouTube scouting im going Cam Smith. More naturally athletic. More aggressive. Harder hitting.
18 Trenton Simpson LB
33 Antonio Johnson S
48 Dalton Kincaid TE
73 KJ Henry DE
103 Mazi Smith DT

Also... for the first time in my life (after Barry) I'd be perfectly fine drafting Bijan in rd1. Upgrading that position could make a world of difference for this offense.

 

[detroit1811]

Nice work 1811! I'd love this draft trade... I'm not high on picks 6-10. Good players but the value doesn't meet any of our needs.

12 Joey Porter Jr CB or Cam Smith CB
(Haven't decided who I want more yet)
Edit... after 10 minutes of YouTube scouting im going Cam Smith. More naturally athletic. More aggressive. Harder hitting.
18 Trenton Simpson LB
33 Antonio Johnson S
48 Dalton Kincaid TE
73 KJ Henry DE
103 Mazi Smith DT

I really think the Texans may be aggressive in their desire for a young stud WR. Jefferson is going to blow up the combine and separate himself as the clear #1 WR, IMO. Carter, Anderson, and potentially Yount, Stroud, and Levi?s may go top 5.

Texans drop a down in the 2nd and 3rd but they only really lose a 4th round pick. As you mentioned, the players available in the 6 range don?t really fit our team. I would love to drop down a few spots and gain a little capital.

I will say that Bijan has a chance to really jump into the top 10 with a good off-season. I will say now I?m not comfortable taking Bijan that high, but my feelings may change on that. Out of all the players that will be available, he is the only one that I have the utmost confidence in being a special player. I like him more than Barkley and Elliot when they came out, quite a bit more actually.

 

[503]

I really do think we are really close to building a legitimate top 5 NFL team, but we still do have some glaring holes. I think plugging a rookie into all those holes is a dangerous proposition if we want to field a contender in 2023. I think it would be a mistake if this regime just completely stood pat in FA and stuck to 1 year prove it deals. That doesn?t mean we need to splurge, but this defense needs a couple veterans to stabilize it, IMO. So for those that want to take the time to see what my opinion is, here it goes.

Off-Season Cuts/Restructures

Cut Michael Brockers (10mil Cap Savings)
Restructure Halapoulivaati Vatai (Eliminate 2024, 2023 Base Salary Goes From 9.4mil to 4mil, 2.5mil Cap Savings as 2024 Dead Money Accelerates)
Restructure Romeo Okwara (Slash 2023 Base Salary From 11mil to 6mil, 5mil Cap Savings)
Restruture Charles Harris (Slash Base Salary From 6mil to 3mil, 3mil Cap Savings)
Restructure Frank Ragnow (Convert 10mil of His Base Salary Into a Bonus Creating 7.5mil in Space)
Restructure Taylor Decker (Convert 12mil of His Base Salary Into a Bonus Creating 8mil in Space)

That is a total savings of 36mil. It may not seem realistic that all three of these guys come back on pay cuts, but I wouldn?t count it out. This staff has singled out all three of these players as guys they really like at one point in time. I don?t believe that has changed. The facts are all three represent significant cost savings if cut and have an exorbitant base salary. Coming off the injuries they are, none of them are worth the money they are currently making. Does anyone here think Harris can get more than 3mil on the open market? What about Vatai getting more than 4mil coming off back surgery? Anybody else committing 6mil to Romeo just one year removed from his achilles? I think the staff will want these guys back at the right price and I believe all three want to come back. This is the middle ground. Walker was another one to consider, but he actually holds the cards as we would incur more costs by cutting him so i don?t think that is an option.

Re-Signings

DJ Chark, 3 years 36mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 8mil
Jamaal Williams, 3 Years 15mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 3mil
Isaiah Buggs, 3 Years 9mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 2mil
John Cominsky, 4 Years 24mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 3.25mil
DeShon Elliot, 3 Years 18mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 4mil
Will Harris, 2 Years 5mil,Year 1 Cap Hit 2mil
Alex Anzalone, 2 Years 8mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 3mil
Justin Jackson, 1 Year 1.25mil

I have us re-signing most of our guys as I believe a lot of these guys are the ?glue guys? Campbell references. I believe a loaded safety market will keep Elliot?s cost down.

Free Agency

Javon Hargrave, DT - 3 Years 45mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 10mil - This is my splash signing. We likely won?t have a shot at Carter and I?m not sold on any of DT prospects. We absolutely need a DT who can be a force rushing the passer next year. Da?Ron Payne will get way overpaid due to his age and the position he plays. I think Payne is a good player, but not worth the 20mil+ he is going to get. Hargrave is pushing 30, but shows no signs of slowing down. He has been consistent throughout his career and fits the hard working gritty mindset this staff loves. On top of that he has the 3rd best pass rush grade per PFF of all interior defenders. This guys transforms this DLine, and entire defense from day 1, IMO. Guarantee all his 1st and 2nd year salaries to keep the signing bonus down so you have an out in year 3 once he turns 32.

Rashad Fenton, CB - 1 Year, 4mil - See below from PFF. He needs to rehab his value somewhere he can play to his strengths and have a good opportunity to start. He is a tough physical CB in run support as well which is important for this staff. Falls in line with the one year prove it deals we tend to hand out.

Fenton has quietly been highly reliable over his three-year NFL career. Despite being a sixth-round pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, the former South Carolina Gamecock owns the second-highest career coverage grade among cornerbacks in that class (83.0). He fell in the draft partly because of subpar physical traits for NFL standards, but that hasn?t been an issue. His tackling stands out more than any other part of his game, as he has missed just twice on 103 attempts since 2019.

Gardner Minshew, QB - 2 Years, 8mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 3mil - The backup QB market is loaded this year. Minshew is my favorite of the bunch and I think him and Campbell would be a very good personality fit.

Matt Gay, K - 4 Years 16mil, Year 1 Cap hit 2.5mil - We expect to be a very good team next year. We cannot play games trying to find a kicker on the cheap or rely on a rookie. Bagley was decent, but he has a weak leg and even though his percentage was solid his kicks didn?y always seem clean. Don?t overthink this, invest in a reliable kicker.

NFL Draft

#6 Overall - TRADE The Lions trade their #6 (1600), #59 (310), and #81 (185) to the Texans for #12 (1200), #33 (580), #73 (225), and #103 (88) The Lions move up in a couple rounds and grab a 4th and the Texans get to move up for Queinton Johnston to pair with their new QB.

#12 Overall - Bijan Robinson, RB - This guy takes this offense to another level. I was originally against this for many reasons, but after stewing on this I just think it makes too much sense.

#18 Overall - Brian Branch, CB - It feels like all the top CB?s have question marks one way or another. branch feels like one of the safest picks and I truly think he could be an elite nickeback. In today?s NFL, your nickelback still plays over 70% of the snaps. He also has the size to be an outside CB as well.

#33 Overall - Devon Witherspoon, CB - We need serious help at CB next season. I would not be surprised one bit to see the Lions grab two CB?s in the first three rounds. I really like Witherspoon as a prospect and adding him and Branch would be huge for this secondary.

#48 Overall - O?Cyrus Torrence, G - Can come in from day 1 in our heavy packages and contribute and will compete with Vatai to start. This kid is a road grader and having Ragnow, Torrence, and Sewell on that right side would be very intimidating.

#73 Overall - Jack Campbell, LB?er - We need a more traditonal MLB to replace Anzalone by 2024 at the latest. Campell would not need to be rushed into action and can learn behind a solid vetern presence in Anzalone.

#103 Overall - Keanu Benton, NT - We need another big body in the middle to clog up running lanes. I don?t see a ton of upside here, but his floor as a very good run defender in obvious running downs is good enough at this point in the draft.

#152 Overall - Cameron Ward, QB - We need a developmental QB on this roster. Ward is very raw, but possesses enough NFL traits to develop into a quality player.

#181 Overall - Puka Nacua, WR - We need to bring in some young WR talent late in the draft this year as both Reynolds and Raymond are FA in 2024. This kid has some long term potential, but is unlikely to make a year 1 impact.

#192 Overall - Carter Warren, OT - We need better depth behind Decker and Penei. I haven?t dove into this class enough, but I like what I?ve seen so far from this kid in the later rounds.

2023 NFL 53 Man Roster

Offense

QB - Jared Goff ($30,650,000), Gardner Minshew ($3,000,000), Cameron Ward ($836,223)

RB - Bijan Robinson ($3,437,878), Jamaal Williams ($3,000,000), D?Andre Swift ($2,716,929), Justin Jackson ($1,250,000)

FB - Jason Cabinda ($2,565,000)

TE - James Mitchell ($930,639), Brock Wright ($940,000), Shane Zylstra (940,000)

WR - Amon Ra St-Brown ($1,136,315), Jameson Williams ($3,968,589), DJ Chark ($14,321,666), Josh Reynolds ($4,000,000), Kalif Raymond ($3,025,000), Puka Nacua ($803,835)

LT - Taylor Decker ($11,350,000), Carter Warren ($797,575)

LG - Jonah Jackson ($1,478,278), Tommy Kraemer ($940,000)

C - Frank Ragnow ($8,875,000)

RG - Halapoulivaati Vatai ($9,996,388), O?Cyrus Torrence ($1,408,341)

RT - Penei Sewell ($6,572,473)

Defense

Edge - Aidan Hutchinson ($8,116,679), James Houston ($945,000), John Cominsky ($3,250,000), Romeo Okwara ($9,500,000), Josh Pascal ($1,758,104), Charles Harris ($4,988,333)

DT - Alim McNeil ($1,398,88), Javon Hargrave ($10,000,000), Isaiah Buggs ($2,000,000, Levi Onwuzurike ($2,222,425), Keanu Benton ($971,853)

LB?er - Malcolm Rodriguez ($916,982), Derrick Barnes ($1,135,302), Alex Anzalone ($3,000,000), Jack Campbell ($1,043,923),

CB - Jeff Okudah ($10,668,167), Jerry Jacobs ($941,168, Rashad Fenton ($4,000,000), Brian Branch ($2,826,034), Devon Witherspoon ($1,811,263), Will Harris ($2,000,000)

S - Kerby Joseph ($1,146,569), DeShon Elliot(4,000,000), Tracy Walker (11,321,666), Ifeatu Melifonwu ($1,305,232)

Specialists

K - Matt Gay ($2,500,000)
P - Jack Fox ($3,565,000)
LS - Scott Daly ($940,000)
KR - Justin Jackson
PR - Kalif Raymond

That would be a total of $216,295,635 committed to player contracts with an additional $4,273,770 in dead money bringing our total cap commitment to $220,569,405. That would leave us with about 7mil for practice squad and in season moves. Obviously these numbers will change some once they finalize the official cpa numbers for each team before the new league year. I just wanted to lay everything out to see what we are working with and what moves may be realistic or not. Thanks for all those who took the time to read all that and I understand if you didn?t.

By my count we would have 37 players under contract for 2024 with about 40mil in cap space, and that incudes picking up Jeff Okudahs 11.3mil option and all the contracts I laid out.

Love this post, love the thought. Very well done D1811!

Please Lions, under no circumstances?Do not draft a RB in the 1st.

 

[mhughes0021]

My off season mock:

6 Devon Witherspoon CB
18 Ocyrus Torrance G
48 Dalton Kincaid TE
59 Noah Sewell LB
81 Hendon Hooker QB
149 Jammie Robinson S
169 Dee Winters LB
180 Jake Moody K

Free Agency:
Resign DJ Chark WR
Resign Buggs DT
Resign Mike Hughes CB
Resign Comisky DE
Sign Tremaine Edmunds LB
Sign Terell Edmunds S

Starting O
Chark St Brown Kincaid JWill
Decker Jackson Ragnow Torrance Sewell
Goff Swift

Starting D
Hutch Buggs McNeil Comisky
Sewell Edmunds Rodrigo
Spoon Edmunds Joseph Okudah
Dime/Nickel Hughes/Jacobs

 

[LKP]

My off season mock:

6 Devon Witherspoon CB
18 Ocyrus Torrance G
48 Dalton Kincaid TE
59 Noah Sewell LB
81 Hendon Hooker QB
149 Jammie Robinson S
169 Dee Winters LB
180 Jake Moody K

Free Agency:
Resign DJ Chark WR
Resign Buggs DT
Resign Mike Hughes CB
Resign Comisky DE
Sign Tremaine Edmunds LB
Sign Terell Edmunds S

Starting O
Chark St Brown Kincaid JWill
Decker Jackson Ragnow Torrance Sewell
Goff Swift

Starting D
Hutch Buggs McNeil Comisky
Sewell Edmunds Rodrigo
Spoon Edmunds Joseph Okudah
Dime/Nickel Hughes/Jacobs

Really like it. Don't know if Sewell will drop to 59, if the Edmunds get tagged or if Detroit even goes with two mega FA contracts. I know Tracy Walker is on track to be back by OTAs already somehow and they just gave him 7 per. Plus they like Joseph at FS. I would love both Edmunds though and just figure things out at FS, Box safety and safety in the slot. The team will need a good one though as things fell apart when Elliot missed the Carolina game. Edmunds a huge upgrade. Wouldn't mind a bigger vet DT though. How much willing to pay Javon Hargrave if Eagles can't hold on to him.

 

[mhughes0021]

Really like it. Don't know if Sewell will drop to 59, if the Edmunds get tagged or if Detroit even goes with two mega FA contracts. I know Tracy Walker is on track to be back by OTAs already somehow and they just gave him 7 per. Plus they like Joseph at FS. I would love both Edmunds though and just figure things out at FS, Box safety and safety in the slot. The team will need a good one though as things fell apart when Elliot missed the Carolina game. Edmunds a huge upgrade. Wouldn't mind a bigger vet DT though. How much willing to pay Javon Hargrave if Eagles can't hold on to him.

Edmund's S tends to play in the box and even rush the passer often in Pittsburgh. Even if walker "started" over him I could see Edmund's being on the field often in that will harris type role.... only he doesnt suck.

Put Kerby deep to play that middle fielder/ballhawk.

 

[detroit1811]

So with the Superbowl now over we are officially into the NFL off-season. I have done these before, but I enjoy doing them so here is another. I am doing this one with the mindset of building a legitimate Superbowl roster in 2023 without going overboard in sacrificing money for the future. The key is to build a strong roster for this season without sacrificing the ability to retain key players in future seasons. Below is what I would do, not what I actually think this staff will do.

Off-Season Cuts/Restructures

Cut Michael Brockers (10mil Cap Savings)
Cut Halapoulivaati Vatai (Roughly 6.5mil Cap Savings)
Cut Romeo Okwara (Make Post June 1st Cut, Save 11mil in 2023)
Restruture Charles Harris (Slash Base Salary From 6mil to 3mil, 3mil Cap Savings)
Restructure Frank Ragnow (Convert 10mil of His Base Salary Into a Bonus Creating 7.5mil in Space)
Restructure Taylor Decker (Convert 12mil of His Base Salary Into a Bonus Creating 8mil in Space)

That is a total savings of about 46mil. I think this staff definitely wants Harris back, and Holmes even mentioned him by name in their end of season press conference. He currently costs us 6mil in 2023 and I can?t justify that cost for Harris. He was consdered a 1st round bust. He had one solid season here and earned himself a pay raise. Last year he was struggling and then got hurt. I would move on if he doesn?t accept a pay cut. Making Romeo a June 1st cut will open up some extra cap space to sign our rookies and have some extra money going into the season.

Overall I have pushed an extra 10mil of dead cap into 2024, 6.5mil in 2025, and 2.5mil into 2026. I also freed up an extra 12.5mil in 2024 by cutting Vaitai. With the massive cap increases in the next few years this barely amounts to a drop in the bucket.

Re-Signings

DJ Chark, 3 years 36mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 7mil
Jamaal Williams, 3 Years 15mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 3mil
Isaiah Buggs, 2 Years 4mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 1.5mil
John Cominsky, 4 Years 24mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 3.25mil
DeShon Elliot, 3 Years 15mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 3mil
Alex Anzalone, 2 Years 8mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 3mil
Justin Jackson, 1 Year 1.25mil

I have us re-signing most of our guys as I believe a lot of these guys are the ?glue guys? Campbell references. I also believe a loaded safety market will keep Elliot?s cost down.

Free Agency

Javon Hargrave, DT - 3 Years 48mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 9mil - This is my splash signing. We likely won?t have a shot at Carter and I?m not sold on any of DT prospects. We absolutely need a DT who can be a force rushing the passer next year. Da?Ron Payne will get way overpaid due to his age and the position he plays. I think Payne is a good player, but not worth the 20mil+ he is going to get. Hargrave is 30, but shows no signs of slowing down. He has been consistent throughout his career and fits the hard working gritty mindset this staff loves. On top of that he has the 3rd best pass rush grade per PFF of all interior defenders. This guys transforms this DLine, and entire defense from day 1, IMO. Guarantee all his 1st and 2nd year salaries to keep the signing bonus down so you have an out in year 3 once he turns 32.

Brandon Graham, DE - 1 Year, 6mil - Graham may be my absolute favorite FA target. His age will keep his price down and he already said he only wants to sign for one season. He is an amazing leader, and is still playing at a very high level in a part time role (#5 ranked edge per PFF and played between 40-50% of snaps). I think his leadership and expertise would be invaluable in helping develop guys like Houston, Hutch and Pascal. He is from Detroit and obviously went to Michigan so he has strong ties here. He had 48 pressures in 2022 on less than 300 pass rushing snaps. That is 5 less pressures than Hutchinson is half the snaps.

Sean Murphy-Bunting, NB - 2 Years 10mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 3.5mil - He has been the Bucs slot CB for the majority of his career. He has steadily improved every season, but missed time with injury the past two seasons. I believe that will keep his cost down, but when healthy he is a very good nickelback with playmaking ability. I really think Bunting is a nice under the radar FA that would fit us well.

Patrick Peterson, CB - 1 Year, 5mil - His age will keep his value down, but I would jump all over him. Peterson would make for an excellent mentor for Okudah/Jacobs and still showed he is a legit starting outside CB. Adding a veteran like Peterson to this secondary would be a massive addition, IMO.

Drew Lock, QB - 1 Year 2mil - The market is absolutely flooded with solid backup QB options this year. This staff had interest in Lock before we traded for Goff so you know they highly of him. He would be the best backup we have had since Shaun Hill, and still can be developed a little more.

Graham Glasgow, OG - 2 Years, 9mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 3mil - Glasgow being cut in Denver appears to be a formality at this point. He has been a relaible starter at G/C the majority of his career, know Frank, Decker, and the city well, and can backup at all three interior line positions. I would take Glasgow at half the cost of Vaitai anyday of the week. Glasgow has been incredibly durable throughout his career as well.

Matt Gay, K - 4 Years 16mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 2.5mil - We expect to be a very good team next year. We cannot play games trying to find a kicker on the cheap or rely on a rookie. Bagley was decent, but he has a weak leg and even though his percentage was solid his kicks didn?y always seem clean. Don?t overthink this, invest in a reliable kicker.

NFL Draft

#6 Overall - **TRADE The Lions trade their #6 (1600) to the Panthers for #9 (1350) and #39 (510). The value definitely favors the Lions here, but this is similar to other small trade ups for QB?s in this range. Carolina will be trading up for a QB, IMO, the question is how far are they willing to go. I?d guess that two of Stroud, Levis, and Richardson will be setting there at 6.

#9 Overall - Devon Witherspoon, CB - I think Witherspoon is the best fit for our team and the best CB in the draft. He would be my pick at 6 if we can?t trade down so getting the extra pick is a bonus.

#18 Overall - Bijan Robinson, RB - I personally think he is the 4th best player in the class behind Anderson, Carter, and Young. I understand positional value, but Robinson can make this offense the best in the league. He would the biggest impact of anyone we could pick at 18, IMO.

#39 Overall - Adetomiwa Adebawore, DT - This is a guy I didn?t know much about until a few people on this board brought him up. I really really like this kid as a prospect and I think you can add 10-15 pounds to his frame and use him at 3T. I would not expect a huge year 1 impact, but he has elite pass rush potential on the interior. Let him learn behind Hargrave.

#48 Overall - Drew Sanders, LB?er - I would love Simpson here, but I think he will be gone at this point. Sanders is a very toolsy prospect and has the type of personality this staff looks for. I think he would greatly benefit from sitting behind a guy like Anzalone for a year. Sanders has legit star potential at LB?er long term, IMO.

#55 Overall - Sydney Brown, S - Safeties seem to get de-valued more and more in the draft, and you can usually find really good players on day 2. Brown is another guy that I didn?t know enough about until a few people on this board started signing his praises. He has already shown that he and Kerby compliment each other well, and gives us insurance behind Elliot this season.

#81 Overall - Cody Mauch, G - This guy just reminds me of a Dan Campbell guy. I know some think he is more of a second round guy, but guards tend to fall down the board a bit more than expected. He is athletic enough to execute all the pulls and motions that Ben Johnson ran a lot of last year. I think there is also some potential for Mauch to kick out to RT in a year or two if we decided not to re-sign Decker.

#152 Overall - Cameron Ward, QB - We need a developmental QB on this roster. Ward is very raw, but possesses enough NFL traits to develop into a quality player.

#181 Overall - Puka Nacua, WR - We need to bring in some young WR talent late in the draft this year as both Reynolds and Raymond are FA in 2024. I think Nacua has starter potential long term, but I see him more as a cheaper Josh Reynolds replacement in 2024.

#192 Overall - Carter Warren, OT - We need better depth behind Decker and Penei. Warren has enough traits to develop into a quality swing tackle and could probably fill the extra lineman role in jumbo packages in year 1.

2023 NFL 53 Man Roster

Offense

QB - Jared Goff ($30,650,000), Drew Lock ($2,000,000), Cameron Ward ($836,223)

RB - Bijan Robinson ($2,826,034), Jamaal Williams ($3,000,000), D?Andre Swift ($2,716,929), Justin Jackson ($1,250,000)

FB - Jason Cabinda ($2,565,000)

TE - James Mitchell ($930,639), Brock Wright ($940,000), Shane Zylstra (940,000)

WR - Amon Ra St-Brown ($1,136,315), Jameson Williams ($3,968,589), DJ Chark ($13,321,666), Josh Reynolds ($4,000,000), Kalif Raymond ($3,025,000), Puka Nacua ($803,835)

LT - Taylor Decker ($11,350,000), Carter Warren ($797,575)

LG - Jonah Jackson ($1,478,278), Tommy Kraemer ($940,000)

C - Frank Ragnow ($8,875,000)

RG - Graham Glasgow ($3,000,000), Cody Mauch ($1,017,532)

RT - Penei Sewell ($6,572,473)

Defense

Edge - Aidan Hutchinson ($8,116,679), James Houston ($945,000), John Cominsky ($3,250,000), Brandon Graham ($6,000,000), Josh Pascal ($1,758,104), Charles Harris ($4,988,333)

DT - Alim McNeil ($1,398,88), Javon Hargrave ($9,000,000), Adetomiwa Adebawore ($1,676,958), Isaiah Buggs ($1,500,000, Levi Onwuzurike ($2,222,425),

LB?er - Malcolm Rodriguez ($916,982), Derrick Barnes ($1,135,302), Alex Anzalone ($3,000,000), Drew Sanders ($1,408,341),

CB - Jeff Okudah ($10,668,167), Patrick Peterson ($5,000,000), Jerry Jacobs ($941,168), Devon Witherspoon ($4,213,879), Sean Murphy-Bunting ($3,500,000),

S - Kerby Joseph ($1,146,569), DeShon Elliot (3,000,000), Tracy Walker (11,321,666), Sydney Brown ($1,214,343), Ifeatu Melifonwu ($1,305,232)

Specialists

K - Matt Gay ($2,500,000)
P - Jack Fox ($3,565,000)
LS - Scott Daly ($940,000)
KR - Justin Jackson
PR - Kalif Raymond

That is a total of $205,574,124 million in cap space. We would have an additional $13,670,158 in dead money from the cuts that were made. In total that would be $219,244,282 total in cap commitments for 2023. That would leave about 7mil for the practice squad and in season moves.

 

[LKP]

Looks great.

I don't see Peterson coming here as he said he wanted back with the Vikings. He played pretty good too in 2022 so might be a little more costly too. Would just be fully giving up on Okudah really if you are going to play a one-year rental in Peterson opposite Witherspoon. We would want Witherspoon right in the fire not sitting behind Okudah and Peterson. Okudah or Peterson as the top outside backup would be really good depth though. But I don't see Peterson being a happy teammate if Okudah and rookie beat him out to start. Might have to go non former super star for veteran CB that can start.

 

[detroit1811]

Looks great.

I don't see Peterson coming here as he said he wanted back with the Vikings. He played pretty good too in 2022 so might be a little more costly too. Would just be fully giving up on Okudah really if you are going to play a one-year rental in Peterson opposite Witherspoon. We would want Witherspoon right in the fire not sitting behind Okudah and Peterson. Okudah or Peterson as the top outside backup would be really good depth though. But I don't see Peterson being a happy teammate if Okudah and rookie beat him out to start. Might have to go non former super star for veteran CB that can start.

I personally would prefer not to have a rookie be a day 1 starter at CB if we didn't have to. Now depending on where we put our resources, that may end up being the case, but it is very hard for rookies to come in and be elite day 1. Surtain and Sauce both did it the last two years, but they were both better prospects than any CB in this draft.

I know Peterson wants to come back to the Vikings, and he certainly might, but they are very cash strapped this year and have a new DC. They might opt to go in a different direction at CB.

 

[baitnbat]

So with the Superbowl now over we are officially into the NFL off-season. I have done these before, but I enjoy doing them so here is another. I am doing this one with the mindset of building a legitimate Superbowl roster in 2023 without going overboard in sacrificing money for the future. The key is to build a strong roster for this season without sacrificing the ability to retain key players in future seasons. Below is what I would do, not what I actually think this staff will do.

Off-Season Cuts/Restructures

Cut Michael Brockers (10mil Cap Savings)
Cut Halapoulivaati Vatai (Roughly 6.5mil Cap Savings)
Cut Romeo Okwara (Make Post June 1st Cut, Save 11mil in 2023)
Restruture Charles Harris (Slash Base Salary From 6mil to 3mil, 3mil Cap Savings)
Restructure Frank Ragnow (Convert 10mil of His Base Salary Into a Bonus Creating 7.5mil in Space)
Restructure Taylor Decker (Convert 12mil of His Base Salary Into a Bonus Creating 8mil in Space)

That is a total savings of about 46mil. I think this staff definitely wants Harris back, and Holmes even mentioned him by name in their end of season press conference. He currently costs us 6mil in 2023 and I can?t justify that cost for Harris. He was consdered a 1st round bust. He had one solid season here and earned himself a pay raise. Last year he was struggling and then got hurt. I would move on if he doesn?t accept a pay cut. Making Romeo a June 1st cut will open up some extra cap space to sign our rookies and have some extra money going into the season.

Overall I have pushed an extra 10mil of dead cap into 2024, 6.5mil in 2025, and 2.5mil into 2026. I also freed up an extra 12.5mil in 2024 by cutting Vaitai. With the massive cap increases in the next few years this barely amounts to a drop in the bucket.

Re-Signings

DJ Chark, 3 years 36mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 7mil
Jamaal Williams, 3 Years 15mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 3mil
Isaiah Buggs, 2 Years 4mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 1.5mil
John Cominsky, 4 Years 24mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 3.25mil
DeShon Elliot, 3 Years 15mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 3mil
Alex Anzalone, 2 Years 8mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 3mil
Justin Jackson, 1 Year 1.25mil

I have us re-signing most of our guys as I believe a lot of these guys are the ?glue guys? Campbell references. I also believe a loaded safety market will keep Elliot?s cost down.

Free Agency

Javon Hargrave, DT - 3 Years 48mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 9mil - This is my splash signing. We likely won?t have a shot at Carter and I?m not sold on any of DT prospects. We absolutely need a DT who can be a force rushing the passer next year. Da?Ron Payne will get way overpaid due to his age and the position he plays. I think Payne is a good player, but not worth the 20mil+ he is going to get. Hargrave is 30, but shows no signs of slowing down. He has been consistent throughout his career and fits the hard working gritty mindset this staff loves. On top of that he has the 3rd best pass rush grade per PFF of all interior defenders. This guys transforms this DLine, and entire defense from day 1, IMO. Guarantee all his 1st and 2nd year salaries to keep the signing bonus down so you have an out in year 3 once he turns 32.

Brandon Graham, DE - 1 Year, 6mil - Graham may be my absolute favorite FA target. His age will keep his price down and he already said he only wants to sign for one season. He is an amazing leader, and is still playing at a very high level in a part time role (#5 ranked edge per PFF and played between 40-50% of snaps). I think his leadership and expertise would be invaluable in helping develop guys like Houston, Hutch and Pascal. He is from Detroit and obviously went to Michigan so he has strong ties here. He had 48 pressures in 2022 on less than 300 pass rushing snaps. That is 5 less pressures than Hutchinson is half the snaps.

Sean Murphy-Bunting, NB - 2 Years 10mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 3.5mil - He has been the Bucs slot CB for the majority of his career. He has steadily improved every season, but missed time with injury the past two seasons. I believe that will keep his cost down, but when healthy he is a very good nickelback with playmaking ability. I really think Bunting is a nice under the radar FA that would fit us well.

Patrick Peterson, CB - 1 Year, 5mil - His age will keep his value down, but I would jump all over him. Peterson would make for an excellent mentor for Okudah/Jacobs and still showed he is a legit starting outside CB. Adding a veteran like Peterson to this secondary would be a massive addition, IMO.

Drew Lock, QB - 1 Year 2mil - The market is absolutely flooded with solid backup QB options this year. This staff had interest in Lock before we traded for Goff so you know they highly of him. He would be the best backup we have had since Shaun Hill, and still can be developed a little more.

Graham Glasgow, OG - 2 Years, 9mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 3mil - Glasgow being cut in Denver appears to be a formality at this point. He has been a relaible starter at G/C the majority of his career, know Frank, Decker, and the city well, and can backup at all three interior line positions. I would take Glasgow at half the cost of Vaitai anyday of the week. Glasgow has been incredibly durable throughout his career as well.

Matt Gay, K - 4 Years 16mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 2.5mil - We expect to be a very good team next year. We cannot play games trying to find a kicker on the cheap or rely on a rookie. Bagley was decent, but he has a weak leg and even though his percentage was solid his kicks didn?y always seem clean. Don?t overthink this, invest in a reliable kicker.

NFL Draft

#6 Overall - **TRADE The Lions trade their #6 (1600) to the Panthers for #9 (1350) and #39 (510). The value definitely favors the Lions here, but this is similar to other small trade ups for QB?s in this range. Carolina will be trading up for a QB, IMO, the question is how far are they willing to go. I?d guess that two of Stroud, Levis, and Richardson will be setting there at 6.

#9 Overall - Devon Witherspoon, CB - I think Witherspoon is the best fit for our team and the best CB in the draft. He would be my pick at 6 if we can?t trade down so getting the extra pick is a bonus.

#18 Overall - Bijan Robinson, RB - I personally think he is the 4th best player in the class behind Anderson, Carter, and Young. I understand positional value, but Robinson can make this offense the best in the league. He would the biggest impact of anyone we could pick at 18, IMO.

#39 Overall - Adetomiwa Adebawore, DT - This is a guy I didn?t know much about until a few people on this board brought him up. I really really like this kid as a prospect and I think you can add 10-15 pounds to his frame and use him at 3T. I would not expect a huge year 1 impact, but he has elite pass rush potential on the interior. Let him learn behind Hargrave.

#48 Overall - Drew Sanders, LB?er - I would love Simpson here, but I think he will be gone at this point. Sanders is a very toolsy prospect and has the type of personality this staff looks for. I think he would greatly benefit from sitting behind a guy like Anzalone for a year. Sanders has legit star potential at LB?er long term, IMO.

#55 Overall - Sydney Brown, S - Safeties seem to get de-valued more and more in the draft, and you can usually find really good players on day 2. Brown is another guy that I didn?t know enough about until a few people on this board started signing his praises. He has already shown that he and Kerby compliment each other well, and gives us insurance behind Elliot this season.

#81 Overall - Cody Mauch, G - This guy just reminds me of a Dan Campbell guy. I know some think he is more of a second round guy, but guards tend to fall down the board a bit more than expected. He is athletic enough to execute all the pulls and motions that Ben Johnson ran a lot of last year. I think there is also some potential for Mauch to kick out to RT in a year or two if we decided not to re-sign Decker.

#152 Overall - Cameron Ward, QB - We need a developmental QB on this roster. Ward is very raw, but possesses enough NFL traits to develop into a quality player.

#181 Overall - Puka Nacua, WR - We need to bring in some young WR talent late in the draft this year as both Reynolds and Raymond are FA in 2024. I think Nacua has starter potential long term, but I see him more as a cheaper Josh Reynolds replacement in 2024.

#192 Overall - Carter Warren, OT - We need better depth behind Decker and Penei. Warren has enough traits to develop into a quality swing tackle and could probably fill the extra lineman role in jumbo packages in year 1.

2023 NFL 53 Man Roster

Offense

QB - Jared Goff ($30,650,000), Drew Lock ($2,000,000), Cameron Ward ($836,223)

RB - Bijan Robinson ($2,826,034), Jamaal Williams ($3,000,000), D?Andre Swift ($2,716,929), Justin Jackson ($1,250,000)

FB - Jason Cabinda ($2,565,000)

TE - James Mitchell ($930,639), Brock Wright ($940,000), Shane Zylstra (940,000)

WR - Amon Ra St-Brown ($1,136,315), Jameson Williams ($3,968,589), DJ Chark ($13,321,666), Josh Reynolds ($4,000,000), Kalif Raymond ($3,025,000), Puka Nacua ($803,835)

LT - Taylor Decker ($11,350,000), Carter Warren ($797,575)

LG - Jonah Jackson ($1,478,278), Tommy Kraemer ($940,000)

C - Frank Ragnow ($8,875,000)

RG - Graham Glasgow ($3,000,000), Cody Mauch ($1,017,532)

RT - Penei Sewell ($6,572,473)

Defense

Edge - Aidan Hutchinson ($8,116,679), James Houston ($945,000), John Cominsky ($3,250,000), Brandon Graham ($6,000,000), Josh Pascal ($1,758,104), Charles Harris ($4,988,333)

DT - Alim McNeil ($1,398,88), Javon Hargrave ($9,000,000), Adetomiwa Adebawore ($1,676,958), Isaiah Buggs ($1,500,000, Levi Onwuzurike ($2,222,425),

LB?er - Malcolm Rodriguez ($916,982), Derrick Barnes ($1,135,302), Alex Anzalone ($3,000,000), Drew Sanders ($1,408,341),

CB - Jeff Okudah ($10,668,167), Patrick Peterson ($5,000,000), Jerry Jacobs ($941,168), Devon Witherspoon ($4,213,879), Sean Murphy-Bunting ($3,500,000),

S - Kerby Joseph ($1,146,569), DeShon Elliot (3,000,000), Tracy Walker (11,321,666), Sydney Brown ($1,214,343), Ifeatu Melifonwu ($1,305,232)

Specialists

K - Matt Gay ($2,500,000)
P - Jack Fox ($3,565,000)
LS - Scott Daly ($940,000)
KR - Justin Jackson
PR - Kalif Raymond

That is a total of $205,574,124 million in cap space. We would have an additional $13,670,158 in dead money from the cuts that were made. In total that would be $219,244,282 total in cap commitments for 2023. That would leave about 7mil for the practice squad and in season moves.

Forget Bijan and give me best LB available. Snag Sydney Browns brother Chase Brown in the draft and I'd be extremely happy.