Offseason Deals and Rumors

[spockmaster]

No. We got absolutely no one for Fister and Fister hands down over Donaldson.

Truth. They at least got some talent back. We got jack fucking shit.

 

[swami45]

I'm all for selling high on Porcello, just not for Cespedes.

Im not sure Porcello will even net you that much. There are at least a dozen other pitchers that are one year from free agency that are rumored out there as well. Samardija, Cueto, Zimmerman, Fister, Leake, Fister, Ross, Latos, kazmir, Kennedy, norris, Price, Cashner, and Iwakuma. All of them are better than Porcello, that drives down his price

 

[Thumb]

Im not sure Porcello will even net you that much. There are at least a dozen other pitchers that are one year from free agency that are rumored out there as well. Samardija, Cueto, Zimmerman, Fister, Leake, Fister, Ross, Latos, kazmir, Kennedy, norris, Price, Cashner, and Iwakuma. All of them are better than Porcello, that drives down his price

No. Not all of them.

 

[swami45]

No. Not all of them.

If you want to argue two or three of them thats fine I'll give you that. Still are several that are better, thats my point. It will be a tough market with so many options.

 

[Rebbiv]

Im not sure Porcello will even net you that much. There are at least a dozen other pitchers that are one year from free agency that are rumored out there as well. Samardija, Cueto, Zimmerman, Fister, Leake, Fister, Ross, Latos, kazmir, Kennedy, norris, Price, Cashner, and Iwakuma. All of them are better than Porcello, that drives down his price

Let's start by mentioning Porcello is at least 2 years younger than all who you listed except Latos. In most cases, he is 4 years younger.

Last 3 years (155 starters qualify with 250 IP minimum)

Porcello is 30th in Innings Pitched, t31st in Games Started and 24th in Wins

FIP

4. A. Sanchez 2.91
6. M. Scherzer 2.94
7. D. Price 2.94
18. J. Zimmerman 3.18
22. A. Cashner 3.28
24. J. Verlander 3.30
25. J. Cueto 3.35
30. S. Kazmir 3.42
31. D. Smyly 3.45
33. J. Samardzija 3.50
35. M. Latos 3.51
36. D. Fister 3.51
38. T. Ross 3.52
42. H. Iwakuma 3.59
52. R. Porcello 3.70

69. I. Kennedy 3.93
101. B. Norris 4.10
102. M. Leake 4.10

xFIP

7. D. Price (29) 3.02
11. M. Scherzer (30) 3.17
13. H. Iwakuma (33) 3.24
16. J. Samardzija (29) 3.29
22. A. Sanchez (30) 3.34
23. J. Cueto (28) 3.40
28. J. Zimmerman (28) 3.45
31. S. Kazmir (30) 3.49
33. A. Cashner (28) 3.51
34. D. Fister (30) 3.54
35. T. Ross (27) 3.54
39. R. Porcello (25) 3.59

45. D. Smyly (25) 3.65
51. J. Verlander (31) 3.70
55. M. Leake (27) 3.73
56. M. Latos (26) 3.74
82. I. Kennedy (29) 3.91
110. B. Norris (29) 4.11


If we assume 1-30 = #1, 31-60 = #2, 61-90 = #3, and so on, then in almost all statistical categories Rick Porcello ranks in the top 60 over the last 3 years. By that definition, and not some subjective thought process, he is a solid #2 based on past performance. Given the fact he is just 25, then he is just entering his PRIME. Whereas most of the names you gave are near the end of their primes.

Porcello since 2009 (Total, only 54 MLB starters have at least 750 IP since)

Wins = t17th
Game Started = t20th
Innings Pitched = 29th
WAR = 33rd
xFIP = 40th

Last 3 years AWAY (130 IP Min, 153 MLB starters Qualify)

FIP

5. M. Scherzer 2.92
9. M. Latos 3.01
15. J. Verlander 3.15
16. J. Zimmerman 3.16
17. A. Sanchez 3.19
18. D. Price 3.21
19. D. Smyly 3.26
20. J. Samardzija 3.27
25. J. Cueto 3.34
37. T. Ross 3.68
38. A. Cashner 3.68
45. S. Kazmir 3.75
53. R. Porcello 3.81

57. H. Iwakuma 3.82
67. D. Fister 3.97
77. M. Leake 4.04
83. I. Kennedy 4.09
144. B. Norris 4.85

xFIP

2. D. Price 3.02
9. M. Scherzer 3.19
11. J. Samardzija 3.26
15. J. Zimmerman 3.33
17. J. Verlander 3.36
18. A. Sanchez 3.44
27. H. Iwakuma 3.57
30. M. Latos 3.60
32. D. Smyly 3.61
37. T. Ross 3.67
45. S. Kazmir 3.73
46. R. Porcello 3.73

51. J. Cueto 3.77
53. A. Cashner 3.80
55. D. Fister 3.81
65. M. Leake 3.93
97. I. Kennedy 4.14
141. B. Norris 4.52

 

[Rebbiv]

And as far as Cespedes....

Last 3 years Away (149 OFers quality with 300 PAs)

OPS

6. Y. Puig .878 OPS
7. M. Kemp .870 OPS
11. Me. Cabrera .838 OPS
32. M. Joyce .783 OPS
36. T. Hunter .778 OPS
37. J.D. Martinez .777 OPS
41. S. Smith .769 OPS
42. C. Granderson .766 OPS
54. J. Upton .752 OPS
56. B. Gardner .750 OPS
61. D. Nava .743 OPS
62. Y. Cespedes .743 OPS (118th in OBP)
68. N. Markakis .733 OPS (25th in OBP)
73. A. Jackson .729 OPS

77. D. Young .729 OPS
84. A. Craig .720 OPS
88. R. Raburn .714 OPS
90. A. Dirks .709 OPS
122. R. Davis .666 OPS
137. B. Boesch .611 OPS
145. A. Gose .583 OPS

wOBA

6. Y. Puig .384
8. M. Kemp .375
9. Me. Cabrera .364
30. M. Joyce .342
35. J.D. Martinez .339
36. T. Hunter .339
41. S. Smith .336
44. C. Granderson .335
46. D. Nava .332
47. J. Upton .332
49. B. Gardner .331
65. N. Markakis .323
72. A. Jackson .320
74. D. Young .320

75. Y. Cespedes .319
82. A. Craig .317
92. A. Dirks .311
93. R. Raburn .311
121. R. Davis .295
137. B. Boesch .269
142. A. Gose .264

wRC+

6. Y. Puig 146
8. M. Kemp 139
9. Me. Cabrera 132
30. M. Joyce 117
35. J.D. Martinez 116
36. T. Hunter 115
40. S. Smith 113
44. C. Granderson 112
45. B. Gardner 111
46. D. Nava 110
49. J. Upton 109
62. N. Markakis 105
68. A. Jackson 102
72. Y. Cespedes 102
73. D. Young 102

84. A. Craig 99
92. R. Raburn 96
94. A. Dirks 95
120. R. Davis 85
137. B. Boesch 66
141. A. Gose 64


UZR/150 Last 3 Years (1000 Innings min, 142 OFers qualify)

36. A. Gose 5.8
42. A. Dirks 4.2
47. Y. Cespedes 3.5
56. B. Gardner 1.7
69. D. Nava 0.5
71. Y. Puig 0.4
72. R. Raburn 0.2

77. S. Smith -0.5
93. N. Markakis -3.4
94. M. Joyce -3.4
95. A. Jackson -3.5
102. T. Hunter -4.5
103. J. Upton -4.7
109. Me. Cabrera -6.5
111. R. Davis -6.9
121. J.D. Martinez -9.4
127. C. Granderson -10.4
138. B. Boesch -20.0
139. A. Garcia -21.1
141. M. Kemp -23.8

 

[spockmaster]

I keep forgetting Markakis is still available. Id still prefer Melky, though.

 

[biggunsbob]

I prefer Nick

 

[swami45]

White sox working on deal for Samardzija per mlbtraderumors. They are getting serious this year

 

[spockmaster]

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/11949860/yoenis-cespedes-more-name-value-actual-value-mlb

Buyer Beware: Cespedes Overrated

"The Boston Red Sox have made two of the biggest splashes of the offseason so far by signing Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval, and the only thing we know for sure is that they aren't done. With potentially nine major league outfielders on the roster and a rotation that might currently feature Wally the Green Monster as the second best starting pitcher after the inconsistent Clay Buchholz, it's clear that a talented-yet-lopsided roster still needs some work.

More than likely, that's going to mean trading an outfielder. Maybe that will be Allen Craig or Daniel Nava or Jackie Bradley Jr., but the name that keeps popping up in rumors most often is Yoenis Cespedes, with the idea being that he's be an attractive name and an established big leaguer who can help Boston land a badly needed pitcher. With Ramirez likely landing in left field and the trio of Rusney Castillo, Mookie Betts and Shane Victorino probably manning center and right, in some combination, Cespedes is now expendable.


Cespedes has name value, and there's a whole lot of #narrative that says his departure from Oakland is what single-handedly sunk the Athletics' season, even though we know that's not actually true. His powerful throwing arm and Home Run Derby exploits could fill up the highlight films. As such, there's a good chance Cespedes will be traded in the next several weeks. But when you look behind the headlines, what sort of player can another team really expect? And how much talent is that worth in a trade?

Cespedes' value
Over the course of his three-year career, Cespedes has a 115 wRC+, making him 15 percent better than the average hitter in that span. It's also true that much of that came in his debut season with the A's in 2012, because after a 136 wRC+ that year, he has put up only a 106 mark, with a .298 on-base percentage, in two seasons since. In other words, he has been slightly better than an average hitter over the past two years.

This is the problem, really. For all the positives that Cespedes brings -- we'll get to those in a second -- there's more than a few downsides that come, as well. Despite the fact he has played only three years in the big leagues, he's older than you likely think of him as being, with his 30th birthday less than 11 months away. In addition, his contract states that he cannot be extended a qualifying offer when his deal ends, which limits his value for teams hoping to recoup a draft pick when he leaves.

There's also the fact despite the shiny highlights he often produces, his overall performance has been headed in the wrong direction. As you can see in the charts below, since that first year, Cespedes has walked less often each season ...


... in part because he has swung at -- and in particular, made more contact with -- more pitches outside the strike zone each season:


If you're swinging at pitches outside the strike zone, as Cespedes has, you're less likely to walk. If you're making contact with those pitches, you're generally less likely to make good solid contact, and unsurprisingly, Cespedes' average batted-ball distance has dropped from 291.9 feet (56th in baseball) in 2012 to 275.8 (169th, essentially tied with the light-hitting DJ LeMahieu) in 2014. That might seem counterintuitive given that he hit another 22 homers, but he also tied for second in baseball with 13 homers that were "just enough" to get out, according to ESPN's Home Run Tracker.

It's the increasing tendency toward making contact on balls out of the strike zone that somewhat colors an otherwise positive improvement in strikeout rate, since it's difficult to strike out when you're reaching out to make contact on balls that are best laid off of. As pitchers learn his tendencies, it's going to be on Cespedes to prove he's able to adjust.

None of this is to say Cespedes is a bad player, of course, just one who might have already shown the best he has to offer. While you should ignore his 100 RBIs -- RBIs are a team stat, and Cespedes was lucky enough to have had 432 runners on base for him this year after just 330 and 357, respectively, his first two years -- his throwing arm ranked as baseball's best in the outfield this year, and Steamer projects him for a 2.7 WAR in 2015, making him slightly better than a league-average player.

With one year and $10.5 million remaining on his contract, he represents a lower-priced alternative to some of the other outfield bats on the market, and the majors' recent fascination with power from the right side of the plate -- this is probably related to the surprising quick strikes of the Mets and A's to land Michael Cuddyer and Billy Butler, respectively -- means that if you have a productive righty outfielder (sorry, Andre Ethier and Carl Crawford) who isn't tethered to a massive contract (sorry, Matt Kemp), you have a nice trade piece on your hands.

Of course, the limited amount of team control left reduces his trade value, as does the qualifying-offer exception, as does the fact his name value may exceed his actual value. So now that we know a little better what Cespedes is, what can the Red Sox do?

Red Sox's options
By signing Ramirez and Sandoval, the Red Sox didn't just reinforce their own lineup. They also took a free-agent market that was extremely light on offense even before Victor Martinez and Russell Martin signed and robbed it of the last elite talents remaining. Sure, Chase Headley is still out there, but if third base isn't a need, then teams are left to fight over the scraps of Nelson Cruz (who gives back some of his power value with awful defense), the inconsistent Colby Rasmus and the overrated Nick Markakis.

All of which is to say the Red Sox's moves simultaneously brought talent to town and made their trade assets more appealing, because teams might now find that a trade is the best route to go with as far as acquiring offense. That's good news for the Braves, if they want to move Justin Upton, but it's also good news for the Red Sox, who can take advantage of the weak market to play up Cespedes' strengths.

That's probably enough to get the Red Sox a pitching version of a similar player, which means a slightly above-average pitcher with one year left on his deal, such as an Ian Kennedy or Mike Leake. Considering the way Boston's roster is constructed, that's probably a worthwhile deal to make, even if it seems like a disappointing one from the perspective of Boston fans.

Perception isn't always reality. Cespedes is a player with big strengths but significant flaws, ones that limit his overall value, and ones that any team interested in acquiring him should be particularly careful not to forget."

 

[tomdalton22]

Nelson Cruz to the Mariners

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/11963217/nelson-cruz-agrees-deal-seattle-mariners

 

[spockmaster]

The Jays non-tendered Dirks. What a fucking dick move, picking up a guy off waivers then non tendering him a month later. Might as well get him back, he's better than what we've got.

Ogando is also a FA now after being non-tendered by Texas, worth a flier as a BP arm.

 

[swami45]

The Jays non-tendered Dirks. What a fucking dick move, picking up a guy off waivers then non tendering him a month later. Might as well get him back, he's better than what we've got.

Ogando is also a FA now after being non-tendered by Texas, worth a flier as a BP arm.

The fact that we cut him in the first place with our OF depth and need for a lh bat then toronto lets him go with no OF depth and lack of lh bats as well probably tells you that he isnt even healthy. Why pick up damaged goods?

Ogando is interesting but it looks like there is a long list of teams already interested in him.

Evereth Cabrera may be worth a look to replace Romine as utility infielder.

 

[Rebbiv]

Yet, we can pay millions to a former closer who hasn't pitched in almost 2 years.

 

[Thumb]

Good, signing Miller would have been a terrible move.

Can't fix the bullpen by throwing high end money at 1 guy. Did we learn nothing from Nathan?

 

[Thundercats]

Ogando would be sweet.

 

[biggunsbob]

Will DD do anything :/

 

[firehim]

Good, signing Miller would have been a terrible move.

Can't fix the bullpen by throwing high end money at 1 guy. Did we learn nothing from Nathan?

Try throwing money at one guy that isn't 40 with a blown out arm.

 

[spockmaster]

Will DD do anything :/

I'm hoping he has a busy, non-cespedes-acquiring, winter meeting.

 

[Thumb]

Try throwing money at one guy that isn't 40 with a blown out arm.

So you think 1 guy is going to make any real difference? Our bullpen resembled swiss cheese last year it had so many holes, throwing big money at one guy to plug one of them is not much of a solution.