Outlandish Offseason Predictions

[durtymrclean]

Here is mine: Tigers trade Nick Castellanos and Rick Porcello for Justin Upton.

 

[kingofdetroit57]

I don't think that's as crazy as it sounds. I could see us trying to swing a huge deal for a young star corner OF like Justin Upton or Giancarlo Stanton, and I could definitely see Porcello and Castellanos being tradeable in that scenario.

 

[tigermud]

Here is mine: Tigers trade Nick Castellanos and Rick Porcello for Justin Upton.

Gaaawd that would be a terrible mistake if they do something like that, last thing we need on this offense is another impatient hacker. Or am I thinking of the other one? BJ?

 

[mjsb2]

Gaaawd that would be a terrible mistake if they do something like that, last thing we need on this offense is another impatient hacker. Or am I thinking of the other one? BJ?

Neither is really impatient.

Both have career BB% over 10%.

 

[Mitchrapp]

Compared to Delmon and his 4.4% last 5 years.

 

[manchild98]

Gaaawd that would be a terrible mistake if they do something like that, last thing we need on this offense is another impatient hacker. Or am I thinking of the other one? BJ?

You might be thinking of BJ. Plus I think BJ had an OBP of under .300 last year.

 

[Mitchrapp]

You might be thinking of BJ. Plus I think BJ had an OBP of under .300 last year.

'07 and '08 he had quite the high OBP but has fell off drastically ever since.

 

[Rebbiv]

Justin Upton Last 3 years Home (hitter friendly park)

120.29 RC/650 .311 BAVG .392 OBP .536 SLG .929 OPS 23.08 PA/HR

Justin Upton Last 3 years Away

79.62 RC/650 .253 BAVG .331 OBP .408 SLG .739 OPS 37.42 PA/HR


Justin Upton is a below average offensive corner outfielder in a park neutral environment. Yes, he is stellar on defense, which makes him an above average RFer, but certainly no super-star.

The Tigers are having problems scoring runs on the road. Justin Upton would not help here.

You could use the argument that he is better than what we have had. However, at what cost? His value is overrated, despite his young age.

If I were to trade Castellanos, it would be for an super-star/elite player. Something Upton is not (unless you play him in a hitter's park friendly environment). This is like the Coors Field effect.

 

[kingofdetroit57]

Justin Upton Last 3 years Home (hitter friendly park)

120.29 RC/650 .311 BAVG .392 OBP .536 SLG .929 OPS 23.08 PA/HR

Justin Upton Last 3 years Away

79.62 RC/650 .253 BAVG .331 OBP .408 SLG .739 OPS 37.42 PA/HR


Justin Upton is a below average offensive corner outfielder in a park neutral environment. Yes, he is stellar on defense, which makes him an above average RFer, but certainly no super-star.

The Tigers are having problems scoring runs on the road. Justin Upton would not help here.

You could use the argument that he is better than what we have had. However, at what cost? His value is overrated, despite his young age.

If I were to trade Castellanos, it would be for an super-star/elite player. Something Upton is not (unless you play him in a hitter's park friendly environment). This is like the Coors Field effect.

What do you think about Stanton, Rebbiv? Is he worth giving up Castellanos, Porcello, etc. for? Is there a guy who you think fits the bill if it isn't these two?

Just asking since I really enjoy your stat based insights.

 

[mjsb2]

What do you think about Stanton, Rebbiv? Is he worth giving up Castellanos, Porcello, etc. for? Is there a guy who you think fits the bill if it isn't these two?

Just asking since I really enjoy your stat based insights.

For his career, Stanton has a .924 road OPS.

Yes, Stanton easily fits that bill, and you won't find anybody who will disagree.

 

[Thumb]

Stanton yes, Upton no.

If DD gave up Castellanos for Upton he would have overpaid, again.

 

[Mitchrapp]

If we still had Turner I'd give up him and Nick both for Stanton..

 

[Thumb]

If we still had Turner I'd give up him and Nick both for Stanton..

So would I.

 

[jdeb]

Tigers resign Sanchez
Tigers trade Porcello for Carlos Quentin
Tigers Sign Ryan Madson to close

 

[mjsb2]

If we still had Turner I'd give up him and Nick both for Stanton..

And Garcia, and Rondon, and whatever tradeable draft picks we have, and whatever other prospects they would want.

 

[Rebbiv]

What do you think about Stanton, Rebbiv? Is he worth giving up Castellanos, Porcello, etc. for? Is there a guy who you think fits the bill if it isn't these two?

Just asking since I really enjoy your stat based insights.

Stanton last 3 year away

115.10 RC/650 .275 BAVG .340 OBP .584 SLG .924 OPS 14.11 PA/HR


Using Linear Weights for offense and defense, Stanton would be 4 wins better than Justin Upton. He also would be 1 win better than Josh Hamilton (playing CF).


Victorino, Bourn, Hunter, Hamilton and Swisher are all free agents that are better than Justin Upton, with Hamilton and Swisher leading the group. So why trade when you can sign? Oh, unless that player is Miguel Cabrera or Giancarlo Stanton.

Additionally, when you view linear weights, there is not a huge difference (about a win) in Hamilton and Swisher. Hamilton is going to get $20+ Mil a year. Swisher might come in at $15 Mil or less. Where is the value?

The Tigers need to add or find value players. Austin Jackson and Doug Fister are examples of a value player (until their salaries significantly climb).

They need to offer Swisher (or anyone else not Hamilton) a good deal, before Hamilton signs. If Hamilton signs first, everyone else's price goes up.

 

[tomdalton22]

I don't see the Tigers signing a high dollar corner OF to a long term contract. I see them signing an older player to a 1 or 2 year deal.

 

[kingofdetroit57]

Thanks Rebbiv. I'm actually surprised that Swisher projects that well. He's always struck me as an average player who for some unknown reason thinks he's great. Maybe I'm off base there, or maybe I unfairly view a guy like Hamilton to be far superior for some reason. Very interesting, and that's why I really value your input on this stuff. It takes a lot of the biases and feel out of the equation.

 

[durtymrclean]

Justin Upton Last 3 years Home (hitter friendly park)

120.29 RC/650 .311 BAVG .392 OBP .536 SLG .929 OPS 23.08 PA/HR

Justin Upton Last 3 years Away

79.62 RC/650 .253 BAVG .331 OBP .408 SLG .739 OPS 37.42 PA/HR


Justin Upton is a below average offensive corner outfielder in a park neutral environment. Yes, he is stellar on defense, which makes him an above average RFer, but certainly no super-star.

The Tigers are having problems scoring runs on the road. Justin Upton would not help here.

You could use the argument that he is better than what we have had. However, at what cost? His value is overrated, despite his young age.

If I were to trade Castellanos, it would be for an super-star/elite player. Something Upton is not (unless you play him in a hitter's park friendly environment). This is like the Coors Field effect.

It's not just the bat, but also the base running he adds. Another OF Tigers could trade from Dbacks are Kubel or Parra. Kubel would be an upgraded Delmon and Parra would be an upgraded Berry.

 

[Mitchrapp]

I'd like Berry to get a 25-man roster spot just for his PR. And an occasional defensive replacement.