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We now know that the Texas Rangers have won the exclusive rights to negotiate with Yu Darvish, generally considered the best player from Nippon Professional Baseball to ever hit the posting system. Combining his expected contract with the $51.7 million posting bid, the total price for Darvish will exceed nine figures. But will he be worth it?
To find out, I polled 10 scouts and big league executives, many with international experience and in-person looks at Darvish. Instead of pure comparisons to others pitchers, I asked the insiders to place Darvish on a scale, picking him against a series of five right-handers, varying from good to great. The question was this: "Based on talent alone, would you take Darvish ahead of this pitcher?"
The hurlers in question are Ricky Nolasco, Ian Kennedy, Matt Garza, Zack Greinke and Justin Verlander. Opinions varied wildly, but were overall quite positive. Let's take a look.
Ricky Nolasco, Miami Marlins
Scouting report: A frustrating talent. The stuff is there, the command is there, the peripherals often point to a breakout, but it just never happens.
While those polled were universal in favoring Darvish over a prototypical No. 4 starter with occasional glimpses of being a No. 3, some admitted that it was a question that was at least worth some thought. "It's actually close," said an American League scout. "I mean, look at Nolasco's numbers. Are we all really so sure that Darvish can do that?"
The unknown also played a significant role in the decision-making process for many. "I just think the change of scenery is so huge," explained a National League international scout. "It's a gamble. If I was Texas, I would have re-signed C.J. Wilson over Darvish. Everyone is different, and it's hard to know how players will react to being in a new environment."
The vote: Darvish, 10-0
Ian Kennedy, Arizona Diamondbacks
Scouting report: More a finesse pitcher than a pure stuff guy, but coming off a year in which he finished fourth in the National League Cy Young voting.
"These guys are known quantities, and that shouldn't be discounted," said one NL exec. "Darvish could be a one, and he could be a four, and we won't know until he gets here." An AL scout agreed: "On a stuff level, Darvish is way better. But you need a pretty big sack to say he's going to outperform Kennedy." (For those who've forgotten, Kennedy posted a 2.88 ERA in 222 innings in 2011.)
Another AL scouting official insisted that it's what Darvish can do with the stuff that gives him the edge. "A lot of pitchers can get strikeouts outside of the zone," he explained. "When you can challenge hitters inside the zone and get swings and misses, that's what makes a front-line starter, and Darvish can do that."
The vote: Darvish, 7-3
Matt Garza, Chicago Cubs
Scouting report: Durable with plus stuff, and more strikeouts than hits allowed in 2011.
Garza was often the first point of heavy thinking and pauses for those polled. "I have to go Garza here," said one NL executive. "He's young, he's American League East-proven [from his time with the Tampa Bay Rays] and he's got great stuff." In addition, Garza's placement on the spectrum created some questions, as two among those polled took Darvish over Garza, yet preferred Kennedy over both. "I think you're going in the wrong direction," said an AL assistant general manager.
The vote: Darvish, 7-3
Zack Greinke, Milwaukee Brewers
Scouting report: A bit mecurial, but won AL Cy Young Award in 2009 and had career-high strikeout rate in first year with Brewers in 2011.
As good as Greinke can be at times, his inconsistency and unique personality has some that were polled waffling on their choice. "Greinke is tantalizing, but you take that Cy Young Award season away, and he's not always a star," said one AL scout, with another adding, "After seeing Greinke down the stretch in the playoffs, I'll take Darvish." An AL executive saw some similarities off the field as well. "They're both weird makeup guys," he said. "Lots of ego stuff, lots of style points. That could be to his advantage or disadvantage over here depending on how you look at it."
The vote: Tie, 5-5
Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers
Scouting report: Generally seen as best pitcher in baseball. Reigning AL MVP and Cy Young winner.
While it should be no surprise that Verlander wins in a blowout, for one NL scout who has seen Darvish in person, it was at least something to think about. "I know you think I'm crazy, and I know I'm higher on him than anyone, but I really have to consider it," he said. "There might not be another pitcher on the planet who can manipulate a baseball like he does."
Even for those that saw Verlander as a no-brainer, many admitted that the potential for No. 1 performance was there. "While he's no Verlander, optimistically, you want to see him as a top-of-the-rotation guy," said an AL executive. "Realistically, we need to see how the uber-stuff and uber-athleticism plays out here."
The vote: Verlander, 10-0
For most insiders polled, the choke point for just how good Yu Darvish would be occurred somewhere between Garza and Greinke, although a majority still preferred the Japanese import. It's important to note that even the reservations about Darvish had little to do with his talent, and everything to do with the adjustments he'll need to make, from working on shorter rest than he had in Japan, to dealing with far more dangerous hitters, to a new strike zone. Still, reports from professional evaluators, and the ultimate price paid tells you that he was the best pitcher available this winter, and while he was priced beyond many team's reach, the industry generally believes he will be worth the heavy price tag.
