S&P+ odds

[Gulo Blue]

A Buckeye on reddit figured out the win/loss probability after each game of the season for all P5 teams. Here's Michigan's:
https://github.com/EvRoHa/SP-plus-Visualizations/blob/master/png%20output/michigan.png

It's based on S&P+.

So the way this reads is the % listed in each box is the odds of having the number of wins listed for that column after the number of games for that row. (It's labeled 'week', but it shold be 'game'.) For example, week 10, Rutgers, there's a 30% in the 7 win column. That means after playing Rutgers, there's a 30% chance we'll be at 7-3.


Link to the post: https://old.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/94b9yi/win_total_probability_distribution_graphs/

 

[Gulo Blue]

Big Ten end of season win probabilities:

 

[Michchamp]

so their methodology more or less predicts everyone will finish exactly like they did last year.

Very insightful.

 

[tinselwolverine]

Here is the same graph for each of the 13 teams ranked above Michigan in the USA Today coaches' poll.

For what it's worth.

Stanford

Michigan State

Notre Dame

Auburn

Penn State

Miami

Wisconsin

Washington

Oklahoma

Georgia

Ohio State

Clemson

Alabama