Scherzer has a Farm to tend

[jdeb]

Time to clean up down on the farm. This guy has totally lost his ability to pitch.

 

[Mitchrapp]

 

[Thumb]

Dam that's creepy.

 

[kingofdetroit57]

Have we figured out if the blue eyed Max or the brown eyed Max is the better pitcher yet?

 

[byco42]

The Blue Max went down in that monoplane in flames. So I say the brown-eyed Max. Since he's pitching horses hit these days, the farm is the place for him to be.

 

[tinselwolverine]

This girl I grew up with in my old neighborhood had one blue eye and one brown eye.

 

[tonyballs]

This girl I grew up with in my old neighborhood had one blue eye and one brown eye.

I bet she did....lol.

 

[zonietigerfan]

So this is what it's come to, huh? Color of eyes. (agreed: It is creepy) Beats thinking about how the powerful Twinkees just swept us. Now in the position of having to sweep the Pirates. That appeared doable in March. Not so much today. Seattle? Oakland? WhSox? "These are the bad times." Henry Hill, Goodfellas

 

[deathroh]

Time to clean up down on the farm. This guy has totally lost his ability to pitch.

Totally.

 

[boogerlovejoy]

Time to clean up down on the farm. This guy has totally lost his ability to pitch.

Agreed....If you can't strike out 16 or more in a game you don't belong in the Majors.

15 K's isn't gonna cut it.

 

[jdeb]

Agreed....If you can't strike out 16 or more in a game you don't belong in the Majors.

15 K's isn't gonna cut it.

Well he has been looking pretty bad up till yesterday. Maybe he read my post and decided he better get it together soon.

 

[kalinecountry]

Well he has been looking pretty bad up till yesterday. Maybe he read my post and decided he better get it together soon.

This.
Before Sundays great pitched game most all of us were concerned and frustrated with Scherzer.

 

[tomdalton22]

This.
Before Sundays great pitched game most all of us were concerned and frustrated with Scherzer.

I never know what to think of Scherzer and Porcello. Both of them have shown signs of being quality starters and then they go through these funks and look like AAA pitchers.

 

[kingofdetroit57]

I never know what to think of Scherzer and Porcello. Both of them have shown signs of being quality starters and then they go through these funks and look like AAA pitchers.

I think that's just what they are. Scherzer has inconsistent mechanics and control, and has naturally inconsistent performances because of that. Rick pitches to contact and has no real swing and miss or out pitch and there are gonna be days he just gets drilled as a result. His control and ability not to leave pitches out over the plate are going to dictate his success unless/until he develops that out pitch.

 

[mjsb2]

Scherzer had a BABIP over .400 before yesterdays game.

That's why he looked bad.

Overall, he had been pitching pretty well this season.

 

[Thumb]

Scherzer had a BABIP over .400 before yesterdays game.

That's why he looked bad.

Overall, he had been pitching pretty well this season.

Well he has had a couple starts where he was not locating, and when he wasn't getting swings and misses, he was getting swings and hits.

I think Max is always going to be one of those guys who has to keep making conscious adjustments to his delivery and release point in order to be successful.

 

[mjsb2]

Well he has had a couple starts where he was not locating, and when he wasn't getting swings and misses, he was getting swings and hits.

I think Max is always going to be one of those guys who has to keep making conscious adjustments to his delivery and release point in order to be successful.

If we get good Max 70% of the time, then that's a pretty good pitcher overall.

He'll probably never have the consistency of a Verlander, so he'll probably never reach that elite level, but overall he's a quality big league pitcher.

The calls to cut, trade, or send him down were premature.

 

[deathroh]

This.
Before Sundays great pitched game most all of us were concerned and frustrated with Scherzer.

Sunday's game just adds to the frustration, really. I just thought that would be a funny cheap shot..

 

[Rebbiv]

Scherzer had a BABIP over .400 before yesterdays game.

That's why he looked bad.

Overall, he had been pitching pretty well this season.

I do not consider BABIP as a valid stat. It is a flawed stat and doesn't necessarily indicate poor defense and/or being unlucky.

2012

Porcell = .291 OPP BAVG .310 BABIP (.019)

Smyly = .241 OPP BAVG .286 BABIP (.045)

Fister = .239 BAVG .284 BABIP (.045)

Verlander = .168 OPP BAVG .220 BABIP (.052)

Scherzer = .297 OPP BAVG .400 BABIP (.103)



Peralta = .268 BAVG .323 BABIP (.055)

D. Young = .246 BAVG .299 BABIP (.053)

Boesch = .239 BAVG .270 BABIP (.031)



From a hitting standpoint, AL averages:

2011 = .258 BAVG .294 BABIP (.036)

2010 = .260 BAVG .295 BABIP (.035)

2009 = .267 BAVG .300 BABIP (.033)

2008 = .268 BAVG .302 BABIP (.034)

2007 = .271 BAVG .305 BABIP (.034)


Basically, given a BAVG or OPP BAVG, the average BABIP is .034 added. That is the average.

BAbip -- Batting Avg. on Balls in Plays(Hits - Home Runs)/(At Bats - SO - HR + Sac Flies)


Now, four examples.

Player A 180 hits - 30 HRs/600 ABs - 150 K - 30 HRs + 5 SF) = .300 BAVG .353 BABIP

Player B 180 hits - 30 HRs/600 ABs - 75 K - 30 HRs + 5 SF) = .300 BAVG .300 BABIP

Player C 180 hits - 10 HRs/600 ABs - 150 K - 10 HR + 5 SF) = .300 BAVG .382 BABIP

Player D 165 hits - 30 HRs/600 ABs - 75 k - 30 HRs + 5 SF) = .275 BAVG .270 BABIP


Now, from a hitter's BABIP, Player C is the better hitter (or benefits from poor defenses). From a pitcher's BABIP, Player B is the better one. But when comparing Player A to Player B, the only difference is the amount of Ks. From a traditional stat line, I would want Player A as my pitcher, not Player B. And, if we compare Player A to Player C, as pitchers, given these stat lines, I would want the pitcher that gives up less HRs.


Player D is the anomaly. Think Albert Pujols.

Pujols 2011 = .299 BAVG .277 BABIP

Pujols 2010 = .312 BAVG .297 BABIP

Pujols 2009 = .327 BAVG .299 BABIP

Pujols 2008 = .357 BAVG .340 BABIP

Pujols 2007 = .327 BAVG .317 BABIP

Pujols 2006 = .331 BAVG .292 BABIP


Until this year and his rookie season, Pujols has always had a higher BAVG than his BABIP. Low strikeout, high HR player. If you applied that to a pitcher, low strikeout and high HR, then their BABIP would be lower than their OPP BAVG. Now seriously, is this any real indication of defense?

High Strike Outs = Higher BABIP

 

[mjsb2]

High strike outs does not equal a higher BABIP.

And yeah, a pitcher who gives up 20 less HRs is usually gonna be more effective.

As for your hitters example, BABIP isn't used to determine who is a better hitter (so no, player C isn't a better hitter, he just had the highest BABIP), it's used solely as a predictor of future success.

It's the reason everybody knew Jacksons rookie season wasn't going to be sustained, and it's the reason everybody predicted regression from Avila this season.

It's used as a predictor, not to determine who is better.