Spartan football early predicitons...

[Spartanmack]

...are rolling in

FPI has us at 8-4, Athlon 7-5, over/under is 7.5 wins.

The over seems like a trap bet - looks pretty juicy but there are questions. We won a lot of close games last year (Neb, IU, uofm & PSU - and the Miami game was closer than the score indicates) and our running game is certainly going to take a step back. The schedule looks a bit tougher with swapping Nebraska and @Purdue for MN and wisco at home - MN will likely be tougher than Neb but Wisc at home is prob better as I wouldn't expect them to embarrass our secondary the way Pu did. Being on the road for uofm and psu makes the schedule tougher. Getting OSU at home doesn't change much - I'm counting that one as a loss and hoping to be pleasantly surprised.

I'm still inclined to take the over but it's not easy money in my view.

 

[JScottWriter]

When I looked the other day I thought 8-4, I will stick with that.

 

[SpartyNash]

Tough slate for sure. OSU is a guaranteed loss. I?d say Washington, Wisconsin, Michigan, and PSU are all toss ups. I think we lose to Washington because the B1G always plays terrible out west. I could also see Michigan beating us since they?re kind of due and the magic of Mel against them may not continue forever. I think PSU is a fraud and although on the road we can still beat them. I?ll pick us against Wisconsin for sole reason it?s at home. So 9-3 but 7-5 is entirely possible, with 11-1 as the maximum perfect ceiling.

 

[johnny2x2x]

Tough slate for sure. OSU is a guaranteed loss. I?d say Washington, Wisconsin, Michigan, and PSU are all toss ups. I think we lose to Washington because the B1G always plays terrible out west. I could also see Michigan beating us since they?re kind of due and the magic of Mel against them may not continue forever. I think PSU is a fraud and although on the road we can still beat them. I?ll pick us against Wisconsin for sole reason it?s at home. So 9-3 but 7-5 is entirely possible, with 11-1 as the maximum perfect ceiling.

Washington is horrible right now, hope we don't lose that one.

I see 9-3 and 10-3 with a Bowl win, but we're overall a better team than the 11-2 squad. Wisky isn't rolling right now, but that game is still really tough. Penn State and Michigan both lost a ton of talent on defense. Toss ups is fine. Minny is taking a step back too. So we lose to OSU, and 2 of 3 vs Wisky, PSU, and UM, or if we win 2 of those 3, we drop some other random game.

I think we're going to see big defensive improvements, not just because of adding so much talent on that side of the ball, but because the teams we're going to play are much more running tams than last year. We're trading out a few of the best passing teams in the country on last year's schedule for run heavy teams like Wisky, Washington, and Minnesota. Windom, Brule, Bogle, and Speed are massive upgrades at talent level at all 3 levels of the defense. I see FS/Nickel as being the question marks on defense. DT and LB are loaded, and Williams, Speed, and Brantley/Coley/Lowry are a solid group of corners if healthy.

Walker was a transcendent talent, but I really think we got a couple of very good college RBs to replace him. Especially Broussard, who is electric. Payton Thorne should be a year better and he just had a top 3 all time season for an MSU QB. Reed is a stud. Losing Nailor is tough, but Mosley is really solid and it's time for Coleman to light it up. And adding Barker at TE is a big deal for the offense, he's a stud like we haven't had since maybe Dion Sims. It's all about the O Line, I think the starters are fine, depth is an issue though, so the health of the O Line is the key to the season offensively IMO.

A year more in the S&C and nutrition programs is a big plus. A year more with staff and the systems should pay off too. A few breaks and it could be a double digit win season again.

 

[Spartanmack]

Tough slate for sure. OSU is a guaranteed loss. I?d say Washington, Wisconsin, Michigan, and PSU are all toss ups. I think we lose to Washington because the B1G always plays terrible out west. I could also see Michigan beating us since they?re kind of due and the magic of Mel against them may not continue forever. I think PSU is a fraud and although on the road we can still beat them. I?ll pick us against Wisconsin for sole reason it?s at home. So 9-3 but 7-5 is entirely possible, with 11-1 as the maximum perfect ceiling.

I can't stand psu but fraud may be a bit strong - they're probably not beating OSU but they're not terrible. If I'm not mistaken they cleaned up in the portal this year. I agree it's a game we can win but as of now, I'd say the odds were less than a coin toss. And with back-to-back top 10 recruiting classes (where'd that come from? oh yea, NIL - same as us), they could be tough for a while.

I don't see us blowing out any of those teams you mentioned so we're going to have to win all the close ones again to get to double digit wins.

 

[SpartyNash]

Washington is horrible right now, hope we don't lose that one.

I see 9-3 and 10-3 with a Bowl win, but we're overall a better team than the 11-2 squad. Wisky isn't rolling right now, but that game is still really tough. Penn State and Michigan both lost a ton of talent on defense. Toss ups is fine. Minny is taking a step back too. So we lose to OSU, and 2 of 3 vs Wisky, PSU, and UM, or if we win 2 of those 3, we drop some other random game.

I think we're going to see big defensive improvements, not just because of adding so much talent on that side of the ball, but because the teams we're going to play are much more running tams than last year. We're trading out a few of the best passing teams in the country on last year's schedule for run heavy teams like Wisky, Washington, and Minnesota. Windom, Brule, Bogle, and Speed are massive upgrades at talent level at all 3 levels of the defense. I see FS/Nickel as being the question marks on defense. DT and LB are loaded, and Williams, Speed, and Brantley/Coley/Lowry are a solid group of corners if healthy.

Walker was a transcendent talent, but I really think we got a couple of very good college RBs to replace him. Especially Broussard, who is electric. Payton Thorne should be a year better and he just had a top 3 all time season for an MSU QB. Reed is a stud. Losing Nailor is tough, but Mosley is really solid and it's time for Coleman to light it up. And adding Barker at TE is a big deal for the offense, he's a stud like we haven't had since maybe Dion Sims. It's all about the O Line, I think the starters are fine, depth is an issue though, so the health of the O Line is the key to the season offensively IMO.

A year more in the S&C and nutrition programs is a big plus. A year more with staff and the systems should pay off too. A few breaks and it could be a double digit win season again.

Sadly I think one reason the defense will improve is for the sole reason of that it literally cannot get any worse against the pass. Yes we faced some pass heavy teams in 2021 but my god it was comically bad.

 

[johnny2x2x]

Sadly I think one reason the defense will improve is for the sole reason of that it literally cannot get any worse against the pass. Yes we faced some pass heavy teams in 2021 but my god it was comically bad.

It was a terrible passing defense. Ronald Williams was at least above average the last 3rd of the season though. Adding Amir Speed is huge, he immediately seized the starting spot opposite Williams this Spring. Speed was the 3rd CB on that insane Georgia defense and he even started 3 games for them early in the season. Henderson is a good run stopping SS, but he was bad in pass defense last season, especially after he got banged up. Chester Kimbrough is moving from CB to Nickel and should start. He was bad at corner, hope this is a better spot for him. Snow played some at LB this Spring, and I think he'll be a cover LB in some sets, but I expect him to be more of a FS most of the time still. Gross was bad last year, hope he's the one who gets squeezed out. Then hopefully a healthy Brantley can be a rotation piece. Lowery is a body who has to improve to be a rotation piece. And the thought is true freshman Caleb Coley will see the field early.

Then you have to like adding Windom and Brule at LB, both have shown the ability to run with receivers better than guys we've had here in a while. And both will rush the passer on some downs with Snow rotating in for different looks. Cal Haladay is solid and will have a big role too.

DT is obviously the strength of the entire team. Slade and Barrow are the best pair of DTs in the conference. Hunt, Mallory, and Hansen has shown flashes and are starter quality as backups. And Derrrick Harmon is a pick to break out. DT is stacked.

DE is a concern. We lost Beesley, Panasiuk, and Jordan. We added Khris Bogle who's a former top 100 player, but has yet to make a splash at this level. Pietrowski is solid, too short, but he's going to start on the weak side. Tank Brown showed some flashed when he was healthy and we'll need more from him. Michael Fletcher is a body. And Brandon Wright is a pass rusher in a LB's body, but he's apparently shown a lot this off season working with DL coach Brandon Jordan. DE is a huge question mark. We need Brown and Bogle to be factors for the defense to take a big leap forward. I think we can manufacture a pass rush, but the DEs are so important to stopping the run too. Jordan, Beesley, and Panasiuk were all good run stuffers.

With as bad as the defense was last year, it still made a lot of big plays late in games to help us get to 11-2. There's an influx of talent, just has to get it done. Like that Tucker is hands on with the DBs right now, he knows how to build championship defenses. Tucker recruited most of that Georgia defense last year. He knows what he's looking for, the talent level is getting better, it's a good system they're running, just have to show results.

 

[Spartanmack]

Sadly I think one reason the defense will improve is for the sole reason of that it literally cannot get any worse against the pass. Yes we faced some pass heavy teams in 2021 but my god it was comically bad.

I agree completely. Some of the more balanced teams and even running teams had success against our pass defense. It was flat out atrocious and it's been bad for a while now. I'd be shocked if more than 2 opponents didn't have their best passing day of the season against us (and the few that didn't had at least a top 3 day against us). I think bringing Barnett back was a mistake - he really needs to show some major improvement in the backfield or he needs to go.

 

[Spartanmack]

It was a terrible passing defense. Ronald Williams was at least above average the last 3rd of the season though. Adding Amir Speed is huge, he immediately seized the starting spot opposite Williams this Spring. Speed was the 3rd CB on that insane Georgia defense and he even started 3 games for them early in the season. Henderson is a good run stopping SS, but he was bad in pass defense last season, especially after he got banged up. Chester Kimbrough is moving from CB to Nickel and should start. He was bad at corner, hope this is a better spot for him. Snow played some at LB this Spring, and I think he'll be a cover LB in some sets, but I expect him to be more of a FS most of the time still. Gross was bad last year, hope he's the one who gets squeezed out. Then hopefully a healthy Brantley can be a rotation piece. Lowery is a body who has to improve to be a rotation piece. And the thought is true freshman Caleb Coley will see the field early.

Then you have to like adding Windom and Brule at LB, both have shown the ability to run with receivers better than guys we've had here in a while. And both will rush the passer on some downs with Snow rotating in for different looks. Cal Haladay is solid and will have a big role too.

DT is obviously the strength of the entire team. Slade and Barrow are the best pair of DTs in the conference. Hunt, Mallory, and Hansen has shown flashes and are starter quality as backups. And Derrrick Harmon is a pick to break out. DT is stacked.

DE is a concern. We lost Beesley, Panasiuk, and Jordan. We added Khris Bogle who's a former top 100 player, but has yet to make a splash at this level. Pietrowski is solid, too short, but he's going to start on the weak side. Tank Brown showed some flashed when he was healthy and we'll need more from him. Michael Fletcher is a body. And Brandon Wright is a pass rusher in a LB's body, but he's apparently shown a lot this off season working with DL coach Brandon Jordan. DE is a huge question mark. We need Brown and Bogle to be factors for the defense to take a big leap forward. I think we can manufacture a pass rush, but the DEs are so important to stopping the run too. Jordan, Beesley, and Panasiuk were all good run stuffers.

With as bad as the defense was last year, it still made a lot of big plays late in games to help us get to 11-2. There's an influx of talent, just has to get it done. Like that Tucker is hands on with the DBs right now, he knows how to build championship defenses. Tucker recruited most of that Georgia defense last year. He knows what he's looking for, the talent level is getting better, it's a good system they're running, just have to show results.

If the interior of the defense is as solid as you project, we should be fine with a rotation of slightly better than serviceable B1G DEs - controlling the line of scrimmage starts with DTs and if they draw extra attention, they make DEs look better. not to take anything away from gholston and those just before him but those guys were all better when they played with Worthy.

Until they prove otherwise, for me the biggest concern on the defense will be the backfield, followed by the LB corps (less concerned about the LBs for sure). I'm not expecting the second incarnation of the No Fly Zone but they've been the frequent flyer program for far too long now.

 

[michdad1]

Spartanmack, check your inbox and see if you received my reply. Thnx!

 

[johnny2x2x]

Camp wrapped up this week, some buzz around camp.

Snow kind of stuck at LB and is a force there. Windom is going to start with Haliday though. But Windom will also play stand up rush DE on occasion. And the name everyone is mentioning as having made a huge leap is Ben Vansumeren, he's going to get some snaps too. A lot of depth at LB.

Khris Bogle will be our starting DE opposite Pietrowski.

DT is every bit as stracked as it appears.

Caleb Coley has flashed and will play as a true freshman. Ade Willie has also shown ability to play as a true frosh at CB.

offensively, the name on everyone's tongue is Keon Coleman. He's an athletic freak at 6-4, 210 lbs with a 40" vertical. He's put in a lot of extra time with Thorne and everyone expects him to break out this year.

True frosh Germie Bennard is the 4th WR right now, he's passed a lot of good players on the depth chart to get to 4th behind Reed, Coleman, and Mosely.

Berger has really bought in at RB and has gained a lot of speed and strength, word is he will get the start.

Carrick is back to full strength at RG and should start, meaning Wash Stare transfer Brian Greene will be the backup inside at guard and center.

Horst might have been banged up part of camp, but hopefully he's back this week. Boyd and Baldwin have been getting reps with the 2nd team. Ashton Lepo, the true freshman tackle really put on some weight and is probably our 5th tackle right now at 6-7, 310.

Noah Kim and Katin Houser are neck and neck to backup Thorne.

True freshman WR Tyrell Henry should get some snaps as a returner.

 

[Spartanmack]

Definitely excited for the season to get underway. Hard to know what to expect, particularly at CB but there's only one way to go from last year. Similarly, LB is a question mark given all the new names but call me a skeptic on the Ben Vansumeren leap. I feel like if that guy is getting snaps, we're not that deep at LB especially if we're only using 2 at a time. I'm more than happy to have Ben prove me wrong, but I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[Spartanmack]

Washington is horrible right now, hope we don't lose that one.

I see 9-3 and 10-3 with a Bowl win, but we're overall a better team than the 11-2 squad. Wisky isn't rolling right now, but that game is still really tough. Penn State and Michigan both lost a ton of talent on defense. Toss ups is fine. Minny is taking a step back too. So we lose to OSU, and 2 of 3 vs Wisky, PSU, and UM, or if we win 2 of those 3, we drop some other random game.

I think we're going to see big defensive improvements, not just because of adding so much talent on that side of the ball, but because the teams we're going to play are much more running tams than last year. We're trading out a few of the best passing teams in the country on last year's schedule for run heavy teams like Wisky, Washington, and Minnesota. Windom, Brule, Bogle, and Speed are massive upgrades at talent level at all 3 levels of the defense. I see FS/Nickel as being the question marks on defense. DT and LB are loaded, and Williams, Speed, and Brantley/Coley/Lowry are a solid group of corners if healthy.

Walker was a transcendent talent, but I really think we got a couple of very good college RBs to replace him. Especially Broussard, who is electric. Payton Thorne should be a year better and he just had a top 3 all time season for an MSU QB. Reed is a stud. Losing Nailor is tough, but Mosley is really solid and it's time for Coleman to light it up. And adding Barker at TE is a big deal for the offense, he's a stud like we haven't had since maybe Dion Sims. It's all about the O Line, I think the starters are fine, depth is an issue though, so the health of the O Line is the key to the season offensively IMO.

A year more in the S&C and nutrition programs is a big plus. A year more with staff and the systems should pay off too. A few breaks and it could be a double digit win season again.

Gonna have to win out to get to 9-3.

This team sucks. Even the defensive line is terrible. If Maryland wasn?t Maryland they would have won by 28+. The only thing that stopped their offense was their own mistakes.

If we win a game before Illinois, I?ll be shocked. Not saying we?ll beat Illinois but that looks like the first team we look like we might have a shot against.

 

[SpartyNash]

Tough slate for sure. OSU is a guaranteed loss. I?d say Washington, Wisconsin, Michigan, and PSU are all toss ups. I think we lose to Washington because the B1G always plays terrible out west. I could also see Michigan beating us since they?re kind of due and the magic of Mel against them may not continue forever. I think PSU is a fraud and although on the road we can still beat them. I?ll pick us against Wisconsin for sole reason it?s at home. So 9-3 but 7-5 is entirely possible, with 11-1 as the maximum perfect ceiling.

Boy this aged well :no:

7-5 is entirely possible?if they literally win out aside from the 60 point loss upcoming to OSU, somehow split with Michigan and Penn state, and win every other game.

 

[Spartanmack]

Boy this aged well :no:

7-5 is entirely possible?if they literally win out aside from the 60 point loss upcoming to OSU, somehow split with Michigan and Penn state, and win every other game.

It aged better than this...

Washington is horrible right now, hope we don't lose that one.

I see 9-3 and 10-3 with a Bowl win, but we're overall a better team than the 11-2 squad. Wisky isn't rolling right now, but that game is still really tough. Penn State and Michigan both lost a ton of talent on defense. Toss ups is fine. Minny is taking a step back too. So we lose to OSU, and 2 of 3 vs Wisky, PSU, and UM, or if we win 2 of those 3, we drop some other random game.

I think we're going to see big defensive improvements, not just because of adding so much talent on that side of the ball, but because the teams we're going to play are much more running tams than last year. We're trading out a few of the best passing teams in the country on last year's schedule for run heavy teams like Wisky, Washington, and Minnesota. Windom, Brule, Bogle, and Speed are massive upgrades at talent level at all 3 levels of the defense. I see FS/Nickel as being the question marks on defense. DT and LB are loaded, and Williams, Speed, and Brantley/Coley/Lowry are a solid group of corners if healthy.

Walker was a transcendent talent, but I really think we got a couple of very good college RBs to replace him. Especially Broussard, who is electric. Payton Thorne should be a year better and he just had a top 3 all time season for an MSU QB. Reed is a stud. Losing Nailor is tough, but Mosley is really solid and it's time for Coleman to light it up. And adding Barker at TE is a big deal for the offense, he's a stud like we haven't had since maybe Dion Sims. It's all about the O Line, I think the starters are fine, depth is an issue though, so the health of the O Line is the key to the season offensively IMO.

A year more in the S&C and nutrition programs is a big plus. A year more with staff and the systems should pay off too. A few breaks and it could be a double digit win season again.

 

[Spartanmack]

can anything be salvaged from this season?

I think we can beat rutgers & indiana at home and maybe beat illinois or wisconsin but probably not both and lose at uofm & psu. I wonder what Johnny will say about the staff selling 5-7 or 4-8 on the trail this year.

Best case 6/6, worst case 3-9 (we can't lose to ru and iu at home in the same year) with the latter the more likely scenario.

 

[Michchamp]

I think this weekend is a make-or-break game for MSU.

Lose and you'll be 2-5 and a heavy dog going into Ann Arbor and Champaign. Lose those (as expected) and you're 2-7 and no chance for a bowl trip.

 

[Spartanmack]

Tough slate for sure. OSU is a guaranteed loss. I?d say Washington, Wisconsin, Michigan, and PSU are all toss ups. I think we lose to Washington because the B1G always plays terrible out west. I could also see Michigan beating us since they?re kind of due and the magic of Mel against them may not continue forever. I think PSU is a fraud and although on the road we can still beat them. I?ll pick us against Wisconsin for sole reason it?s at home. So 9-3 but 7-5 is entirely possible, with 11-1 as the maximum perfect ceiling.

Seeing the score this weekend made me think of this discussion - looks like you may have hit this one on the head. It's only 1 game but psu crept into the top 10 with a bunch of close wins against garbage teams then got absolutely smoked by uofm.

They've had their week off already and still have to play all the B1G teams that beat us (so far) but looks like they'll get Minny without Morgan (left the game against Illinois w/ possible concussion) and their only remaining road games are IU and Rutgers.

We'll probably still need a miracle to beat them.

 

[SpartyNash]

Seeing the score this weekend made me think of this discussion - looks like you may have hit this one on the head. It's only 1 game but psu crept into the top 10 with a bunch of close wins against garbage teams then got absolutely smoked by uofm.

They've had their week off already and still have to play all the B1G teams that beat us (so far) but looks like they'll get Minny without Morgan (left the game against Illinois w/ possible concussion) and their only remaining road games are IU and Rutgers.

We'll probably still need a miracle to beat them.

I don?t want to discredit Michigans win too much. It was a nice win for them and they dominated them. Having said that I don?t think PSU was one of the 10 best teams in the land and I think OSU should have no problem with them in a couple weeks. They?re still probably the 3rd best team in the conference though, which is not saying much given how awful the B1G is this year. I fully expect to lose to them but maybe they?ll self destruct after losing to OSU.

 

[JScottWriter]

My 8-4 prediction is still alive!