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Staffords QB Rating per Reciever this Year

tbone413

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 8, 2011
Messages
1,588
I found this on another site I visit, but its rather interesting...

Calvin Johnson: 97.3
Golden Tate: 98.4
Theo Riddick: 103.3
Eric Ebron: 107.9
Lance Moore: 107.2
Joique Bell: 110.8
Ameer Abdullah: 64.6
T.J. Jones: 107.9

-----------------------------------------------------------

Here are a breakdown on the numbers (not my work) - I dont want to steal someone elses thought, but I agree (for the most part) with it, so I figured id share:

Joique is still a strong receiving threat, although he struggles as a runner. He averaged over 10 yards a target and 13 yards a reception. Bell also churned out 1st downs more than a third of the time on receptions. Note: Joique was still a terrible runner, so you have to question if his receiving was worth his mediocre at best rushing efforts.

Along the same lines, Ameer was not a strong receiver this year, at all. He was only averaging about 7 yards a reception and only got a 1st down about a quarter of the time. That goes all the way down to about 4.5 yards per target.

Ebron got us first downs 38.3% of the time. He averaged just above 11 yards a reception and was very reliable for us. For being targeted 70 times, his TD percentage was fairly decent, too, at 7.1%. That doesn't go into his blocking stats, but he was a very good receiver for the Lions this season. (Also, for those interested, Ebron's drop rate was "only" 7.1%. That's better than "stud" tight end, Tyler Eifert.)

Nearly half of Calvin's targets got 1st downs (44.3%). Always reliable. He turned 6% of his targets into touchdowns, too. Doesn't really say he's past his prime to me.

Tate had a slightly better 1st down rate than Ebron (39.1% to Ebron's 38.6%), although his scoring percentage was far lower (4.7% vs 7.1%). Tate's usage was mostly high percentage short throws, so this just speaks to how much he excels at gaining yards after the catch. His low scoring percentage shows that, too. I would like to see him more involved in the end zone since he's so reliable, but I get why the numbers aren't there.

On receiving plays, Theo was actually one of our weaker players at gaining first downs despite his reliability in other areas (32.3%). He was a key outlet for Stafford all year, although that didn't generate the scoring that last year hinted at. Interestingly, Theo was only about 18% of Theo's targets were on 3rd down. I'll have to dig into why that's so low, but you would think that the "passing down back" would be in the game in those situations.

If we wanted a move the chains, Lance Moore was one of our go-to's. He had a slightly better 1st down rate than Calvin (46.5%). That said, he was clearly a secondary receiver and role player. He just played his role well, exactly what we brought him in to do.
T.J. Jones didn't have a large enough role to really show much about his future usage and strengths, but he definitely showed promise.
 
I found this on another site I visit, but its rather interesting...

Calvin Johnson: 97.3
Golden Tate: 98.4
Theo Riddick: 103.3
Eric Ebron: 107.9
Lance Moore: 107.2
Joique Bell: 110.8
Ameer Abdullah: 64.6
T.J. Jones: 107.9

-----------------------------------------------------------

Here are a breakdown on the numbers (not my work) - I dont want to steal someone elses thought, but I agree (for the most part) with it, so I figured id share:

Joique is still a strong receiving threat, although he struggles as a runner. He averaged over 10 yards a target and 13 yards a reception. Bell also churned out 1st downs more than a third of the time on receptions. Note: Joique was still a terrible runner, so you have to question if his receiving was worth his mediocre at best rushing efforts.

Along the same lines, Ameer was not a strong receiver this year, at all. He was only averaging about 7 yards a reception and only got a 1st down about a quarter of the time. That goes all the way down to about 4.5 yards per target.

Ebron got us first downs 38.3% of the time. He averaged just above 11 yards a reception and was very reliable for us. For being targeted 70 times, his TD percentage was fairly decent, too, at 7.1%. That doesn't go into his blocking stats, but he was a very good receiver for the Lions this season. (Also, for those interested, Ebron's drop rate was "only" 7.1%. That's better than "stud" tight end, Tyler Eifert.)

Nearly half of Calvin's targets got 1st downs (44.3%). Always reliable. He turned 6% of his targets into touchdowns, too. Doesn't really say he's past his prime to me.

Tate had a slightly better 1st down rate than Ebron (39.1% to Ebron's 38.6%), although his scoring percentage was far lower (4.7% vs 7.1%). Tate's usage was mostly high percentage short throws, so this just speaks to how much he excels at gaining yards after the catch. His low scoring percentage shows that, too. I would like to see him more involved in the end zone since he's so reliable, but I get why the numbers aren't there.

On receiving plays, Theo was actually one of our weaker players at gaining first downs despite his reliability in other areas (32.3%). He was a key outlet for Stafford all year, although that didn't generate the scoring that last year hinted at. Interestingly, Theo was only about 18% of Theo's targets were on 3rd down. I'll have to dig into why that's so low, but you would think that the "passing down back" would be in the game in those situations.

If we wanted a move the chains, Lance Moore was one of our go-to's. He had a slightly better 1st down rate than Calvin (46.5%). That said, he was clearly a secondary receiver and role player. He just played his role well, exactly what we brought him in to do.
T.J. Jones didn't have a large enough role to really show much about his future usage and strengths, but he definitely showed promise.

The outlet passes to Riddick, Moore and even Ebron.....to me..... Is the biggest reason for Staffords improvement this year. Especially in the second half of the season. Seems he always found a way to dump it down when his first and second reads weren't open and we actually have a playmaker good enough in Riddick to make positive plays out of some of those.

Stafford was clearly just more decisive in the second half of the season. I think that's where the relationship with him in JBC came into play. For whatever reason, Stafford just understands that offense better than he did Lombardi's.
 
My take on the original comments above (which again weren't mine):

Interesting that the Lions 3 'Leading Receivers' (in terms of catches) had the lowest QB rating. The obvious explanation would be they were targeted the most, and so their numbers are more 'legit', whereas the lesser targeted players have inflated numbers, due to their being thrown to in special situations only (which maximizes their effectiveness)

Joique may be a 'above average receiver' as a RB, but hes terrible in all other aspects of the position, and needs to be cut.

Ameer was pretty disappointing as a receiver this year, however Im not really worried about this, as 1) I think he will improve as he gets more seasoned. 2) Theo Riddick is one of the best pass catching RB's in the league.

Ebrons numbers make him appear semi capable. I still go by the 'eye test' with him, and he just does nothing for me. The OP mentions his drop numbers are less than Eifert, but Eifert was double teamed damn near every play in the Red Zone (where he got 70% of his catches)...Ebron is still a Bust in my eyes, and will continue to do so until he manages to be a 'game changer' on a consistent basis (AKA never..)

Megatron is still Very good/Elite. I dont care that hes getting paid a fortune...you keep him around for atleast another year.

Tate for some reason is never really a primary option in the red zone. It doesnt make sense to me, he is so damn good at getting yards after the catch, and is very reliable, Id like to see him used more in the Redzone, on a short route with him getting a chance to score...Just my opinion tho..

Lance Moore was solid, cant remember many drops from him. I dont think he was targeted enough this year personally, but there are only so many balls to go around, and when three guys each have 80+ catches on the team, players like Moore sometimes get left out.
 
The outlet passes to Riddick, Moore and even Ebron.....to me..... Is the biggest reason for Staffords improvement this year. Especially in the second half of the season. Seems he always found a way to dump it down when his first and second reads weren't open and we actually have a playmaker good enough in Riddick to make positive plays out of some of those.

Stafford was clearly just more decisive in the second half of the season. I think that's where the relationship with him in JBC came into play. For whatever reason, Stafford just understands that offense better than he did Lombardi's.

Ya I agree with this. He seemed to always have an 'out' if his primary or secondary target wasnt open. Also, the O-Line (for the most part) played better under Cooter, which helped tremendously IMO.
 
Pretty sure the numbers have to be weighted by the number of passes thrown to each and the distance per pass and ...etc.

For example if Stafford throws to Fuller 2 times the whole year for 40 yards and 1 TD, wow, Fuller is our best receiver at a 153.6 rating. I know these aren't your numbers but they seem off.
 
If these ratings are correct. That means 8 of his 13 interceptions went to his top 8 options.

He was 100% targeting Burton. That means on throws to Tim Wright, Corey Fuller, Pettigrew and Zenner he threw 5 interceptions on 43 attempts. Not sure if that says more about those options or Stafford when his primary guys are not open.

I also find it interesting that only two interceptions were thrown while targeting Calvin and two when Tate. That means on 270 throws to those two players only 1.48% were intercepted. I figured it would be slightly higher, especially to Calvin.

I do think Cooter did a good job simplifying the offense. Stafford did look much more comfortable and decisive compared to Lombardi. Also seemed like he had less to do with protection calls under Cooter, perhaps taking more off his plate helped. Easier routes and less reads makes it much easier on the QB. When you got play makers like CJ, Tate and Riddick, you want the balls in their hands as quickly as possible.
 
Numbers look close....but something other than these numbers must bring his rating down cause he finished at 97. 97 is one of his better seasons and he finished in the top 10. Great 2nd half of the year. If only we played san fran every week!
 
I did some digging and it looks like these numbers came from Pro Football Reference, using the 'Play Finder' function.

Calvin: http://www.pro-football-reference.c...location=DL&pass_location=DM&pass_location=DR

Golden Tate: http://www.pro-football-reference.c...location=DL&pass_location=DM&pass_location=DR

Theo Riddick: http://www.pro-football-reference.c...location=DL&pass_location=DM&pass_location=DR

Eric Ebron: http://www.pro-football-reference.c...location=DL&pass_location=DM&pass_location=DR

Lance Moore: http://www.pro-football-reference.c...location=DL&pass_location=DM&pass_location=DR

Joique Bell: http://www.pro-football-reference.c...location=DL&pass_location=DM&pass_location=DR

Abdullah: http://www.pro-football-reference.c...location=DL&pass_location=DM&pass_location=DR

Jones: http://www.pro-football-reference.c...location=DL&pass_location=DM&pass_location=DR


As far as Ints go, here are Staffords numbers (per this site):

Calvin: 148 att / 3 INT
Tate: 121 att / 2 INT
Riddick: 91 att / 1 INT
Ebron: 70 att / 1 INT
Moore: 37 att / 1 INT
Bell: 27 att / 0 INT
Ameer: 39 att / 2 INT
Jones: 15 att / 0 INT

Thats 10 INTs right there, with 3 unaccounted for (prob Wright, or Zenner, or some other player who wasnt highlighted above)
 
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I did some digging and it looks like these numbers came from Pro Football Reference, using the 'Play Finder' function.

Calvin: http://www.pro-football-reference.c...location=DL&pass_location=DM&pass_location=DR

Golden Tate: http://www.pro-football-reference.c...location=DL&pass_location=DM&pass_location=DR

Theo Riddick: http://www.pro-football-reference.c...location=DL&pass_location=DM&pass_location=DR

Eric Ebron: http://www.pro-football-reference.c...location=DL&pass_location=DM&pass_location=DR

Lance Moore: http://www.pro-football-reference.c...location=DL&pass_location=DM&pass_location=DR

Joique Bell: http://www.pro-football-reference.c...location=DL&pass_location=DM&pass_location=DR

Abdullah: http://www.pro-football-reference.c...location=DL&pass_location=DM&pass_location=DR

Jones: http://www.pro-football-reference.c...location=DL&pass_location=DM&pass_location=DR


As far as Ints go, here are Staffords numbers (per this site):

Calvin: 148 att / 3 INT
Tate: 121 att / 2 INT
Riddick: 91 att / 1 INT
Ebron: 70 att / 1 INT
Moore: 37 att / 1 INT
Bell: 27 att / 0 INT
Ameer: 39 att / 2 INT
Jones: 15 att / 0 INT

Thats 10 INTs right there, with 3 unaccounted for (prob Wright, or Zenner, or some other player who wasnt highlighted above)

That's a neat tool. I have been playing around with it myself. Thanks man.
 
That is a great tool. Can do a lot with it.

For example you can filter on QB play when the Lions were down by a TD or less: 77/130 (59.2%) 4 TDs, 1 INT, 1 Sack, 83.4 Rating

When tied 97/126 (77%) 10 TDs 4 Int 113.7 Rating.
 
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