Stupor Tuesday results

[tomdalton22]

the reason they went elsewhere was not because wages were too high, but simply because they could do it cheaper other places, either through lower wages or giant taxbreaks states and local governments offered for bringing in jobs.

The issue has never been about the amount of wages paid to the workers, but the amount of difference saved that ends up in the owners/stockholders pockets.

you said it...they could do it cheaper through lower wages. As far as tax breaks to bring in jobs...that is done everywhere...in the north and the south.

 

[tinselwolverine]

So, there's going to be a (hopefully) fun Republican debate tonight...and a super important primary Tuesday.

Kasich has committed to winning his home state of Ohio, or dropping out of the race, and continuing to do the "second best job in the country - being Governor of Ohio -" the third best job being hosting the O'Reilly Factor, which he claimed was the country's third best job within about the last week.

 

[grandy]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-polls-missed-bernie-sanders-michigan-upset/

Why The Polls Missed Bernie Sanders’s Michigan Upset
By CARL BIALIK

If Bernie Sanders were to defeat Hillary Clinton in Michigan’s Democratic primary, it would be “among the greatest polling errors in primary history,” our editor in chief, Nate Silver, wrote Tuesday evening when results started to come in. Sanders pulled it off, and now we’re left wondering how it happened. How did Sanders win by 1.5 percentage points when our polling average showed Clinton ahead by 21 points and our forecasts showed that Sanders had less than a 1 percent chance of winning?

With a polling miss this big, no single factor is likely to explain it, so more than one answer could be correct. Also, not every pollster releases detailed data, and it may take some time to fully diagnose what went wrong. “It’s a little bit of everything,” Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray told The Huffington Post.

Here is our initial assessment of some possible explanations, along with comments from some of the pollsters who had reported a big Clinton lead:

Pollsters underestimated youth turnout. Voters under 30 made up 19 percent of Democratic primary voters, nearly as large a share as voters 65 or older, according to exit polls. Mitchell Research and Communications, which showed a 37 percentage point Clinton lead in a poll conducted Sunday, found that people younger than 50 would make up less than a quarter of all voters; they made up more than half instead. Mitchell was one of the only pollsters in the state to poll using only calls to landlines, and most Americans younger than 45 live in households without landlines. But even Monmouth, which dialed cellphones, too, underestimated the turnout among younger voters. Perhaps all the polls showing a big Clinton lead sowed complacency among Clinton supporters, who skew older — though big leads in polls in Southern states didn’t stop her supporters from helping her romp to big victories.

Pollsters underestimated Sanders’s dominance among young voters. Not only did more young voters turn out than expected, but Sanders won 81 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds. A YouGov poll showed him winning 66 percent.1

Pollsters underestimated the number of independent voters who would participate in the primary. YouGov expected Sanders to beat Clinton by 38 percentage points among independent voters participating in the open Democratic primary. He won those voters by 43 percentage points. But no one expected independents to make up 27 percent of voters; YouGov expected about 12 percent. “There were too many Democrats in the poll,” said Will Jordan, elections editor at YouGov.

Pollsters underestimated Sanders’s support among black voters. Sanders had won less than 20 percent of black voters in most states with large black populations, and Mitchell and YouGov both showed Sanders winning less than 20 percent of them in Michigan. Instead he won 28 percent.

Pollsters missed a late break to Sanders by not polling after Sunday. Clinton and Sanders debated in Flint on Sunday and met in a town hall in Detroit on Monday. No public pollsters contacted voters after either event. Sanders did slightly better among voters who decided in the week before the primary, according to exit polls. An earlier polling miss, in the Iowa Republican caucuses, may have resulted in part from a scarcity of late polls. And there were signs before Sunday that Sanders was closing the gap: In the YouGov poll, 45 percent of Michigan Democrats said their opinion of Sanders was getting better, and just 8 percent said it was getting worse. For Clinton, the numbers were 38 percent and 19 percent.

Some Clinton supporters chose to vote in the Republican primary. We know 7 percent of voters in the Republican primary identified themselves as Democrats to exit pollsters, compared with just 4 percent of voters in the Democratic primary who said they were Republicans. “Those 7 percent of Dems were likely mostly Hillary voters who thought she had an easy win and they could do their part trying to stop [Donald] Trump,” said Bernie Porn of pollster EPIC-MRA. The exit-poll samples are too small, though, to check that.

Pollsters had little recent history to work with. Michigan’s Democratic primary was weird in 2008 (Barack Obama wasn’t on the ballot), and the state party held caucuses in 2000 and 2004 that weren’t really competitive. So relying on voter history could lead pollsters astray. “Remember, we haven’t had a real Democratic presidential primary in Michigan lately,” said Matt Grossmann, director of the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research at Michigan State University, which showed the tightest race of any late polls, with Clinton leading by 5 percentage points.

This is an outlier, a perfectly rotten combination of bad luck and bad timing. Several pollsters pointed out that they used the same methods in the Michigan Democratic primary as in other primaries — including Michigan’s Republican primary — with relative success.

“Polls on the Republican race, including ours, were generally OK,” said Barbara Carvalho of the Marist Poll. She added that all polls on the Democratic race had Clinton winning. “So, something clearly changed in the closing days.”

 

[Michchamp]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-polls-missed-bernie-sanders-michigan-upset/

Why The Polls Missed Bernie Sanders?s Michigan Upset
By CARL BIALIK

I read that this morning too. Just a tip: when you provide the URL, you don't need to also paste the text of the entire article; we can click on it and read for ourselves. Well at least most of us can.

 

[grandy]

I read that this morning too. Just a tip: when you provide the URL, you don't need to also paste the text of the entire article; we can click on it and read for ourselves. Well at least most of us can.

Eh, it's my style and it only takes a minute.

 

[Michchamp]

So, there's going to be a (hopefully) fun Republican debate tonight...and a super important primary Tuesday.

Kasich has committed to winning his home state of Ohio, or dropping out of the race, and continuing to do the "second best job in the country - being Governor of Ohio -" the third best job being hosting the O'Reilly Factor, which he claimed was the country's third best job within about the last week.

the fact that Kasich would take the time to pander to O'Reilly viewers while making his last stand in ohio makes me wonder how he ever got elected in that state in the first place.

first of all, most O'Reilly viewers are dumb, senile, old guys. no amount of pandering will get them away from Trump's camp.

second of all, he should've said being head football coach at ohio state is job #3, or just gone with the non-sequitors "Fuck Michigan!" or "durrr... O H!.."

"...and the third best job is FUCK MICHIGAN!"

 

[KAWDUP]

Hey! Did you see the Ben Carson article I found for you?

I did not read it. Not sure why you would want me to read something negative about a person I respect. If you can assure me it wasn't written by someone who has a personal axe to grind, and that they objectively provide the facts that can then be verified, I'll take a look.

Other than that, head in the sand is for me. I can find dozens of articles that skewer just about every public figure there is. The real question is what human with all their foibles do you respect? If I had to answer that for you, with what little I actually know about you - I would say none. That's the real difference between you and me, and also the sadness I feel for you.

 

[Michchamp]

... That's the real difference between you and me, and also the sadness I feel for you.

don't cry for me, kawdup.

 

[tinselwolverine]

Hey...

1 It's 9 am in Cali

2 I already have a beer buzz (I didn't sleep at all last night, what the fuck?

3 I'm looking for a basseball game thread from Monster or Bob or anybody else

 

[Spartanmack]

So, there's going to be a (hopefully) fun Republican debate tonight...and a super important primary Tuesday.

Kasich has committed to winning his home state of Ohio, or dropping out of the race, and continuing to do the "second best job in the country - being Governor of Ohio -" the third best job being hosting the O'Reilly Factor, which he claimed was the country's third best job within about the last week.

Apparently he doesn't know about Jim Harbaugh's job!

 

[tinselwolverine]

Apparently he doesn't know about Jim Harbaugh's job!

Right.

Possibly he was speaking about a job he felt he would be qualified for.

Like being president.

We Michigans don't want to suggest that Harbaugh is just as qualified to be president (which he is - let's keep that our secret!!!!) as Donald Trump is (he would SUCK as the head coach of Michigan football!!!).

 

[grandy]

Take it for what you will, but I found this article slightly amusing

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/03/1...ids.html?_r=0&referer=https://www.google.com/

How Do You Talk To Your Children About Donald Trump? Thoughtfully

 

[tomdalton22]

Take it for what you will, but I found this article slightly amusing

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/03/1...ids.html?_r=0&referer=https://www.google.com/

How Do You Talk To Your Children About Donald Trump? Thoughtfully

probably easier than talking to your kids during the Clinton Administration. "Billy, our president is in trouble for getting a blow job from an intern and for sticking his cigar in her..."

 

[Gulo Blue]

ugly

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...t-north-carolina-rally-videos-show/?tid=sm_tw

 

[sggatecl]

probably easier than talking to your kids during the Clinton Administration. "Billy, our president is in trouble for getting a blow job from an intern and for sticking his cigar in her..."

Sex is a whole lot easier and simpler to talk about than bigotry and fear.

 

[tomdalton22]

Sex is a whole lot easier and simpler to talk about than bigotry and fear.

depends who you are talking to.

 

[sggatecl]

depends who you are talking to.

You said kids. Just speaking for my own 2 boys of course.

 

[tinselwolverine]

Sex is a whole lot easier and simpler to talk about than bigotry and fear.

That could be the case.

The only people I ever talked to about bigotry and fear were liberal chicks I was trying to fuck.

 

[Michchamp]

probably easier than talking to your kids during the Clinton Administration. "Billy, our president is in trouble for getting a blow job from an intern and for sticking his cigar in her..."

eh... the sex part is not complicated. the more complicated part to explain is why a bunch of other adulterers where upset (or at least pretended to be upset) at this instance of adultery.

 

[Michchamp]

ugly

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...t-north-carolina-rally-videos-show/?tid=sm_tw

not the first such incident, but the first sucker punch.

also ominously Trump seems to encourage it, and definitely doesn't do anything to discourage it.