Teams calling DD about Porcello

[kalinecountry]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/rick-porcello-drawing-trade-interest.html
Rick Porcello drawing trade interest.
from mlbtraderumors

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/d...est-in-porcello-but-tigers-cant-trade-him-yet
Lots of interest in Porcello, but Tigers can't trade him (yet).
from Danny Knobler at cbssports

http://www.thedetroitsportssite.com...porcello-but-tigers-not-willing-to-deal/27632
Detroit Tigers Trade Rumors: ‘Plenty of Teams’ Interested in Rick Porcello, but Tigers Not Willing to Deal.
from the detroitsportssite

 

[spockmaster]

i really, REALLY hope we dump ricky for something good...but we need another starter first or DD wont do it. get sanchez or ejax or someone so we can get rid of him!

 

[kingofdetroit57]

I just read that we offered Garcia up for Shields. I wonder what a package of Porcello and Garcia could land us.

 

[tonyballs]

Get rid of this bum. WTH is DD waiting for?

 

[jdeb]

Man, I would hard pressed to trade him, I would have to get a lot in return. Give the kid some defense and his stats would be a lot better. I would think long and hard about trading a 53.2 % ground ball pitcher. He pitched brilliantly in many games.... I'm just saying

 

[spockmaster]

he needs more than a defense behind him, he needs an out pitch too. he really only has the one good pitch, his sinker, and good defense or no if its off, he gets crushed. he also has little stamina, he often gets hit hard after he hits 75 pitches or so.


get rid of him now while he still has some trade value. im starting to have doubts whether he can ever be fixed, and id rather have it be some other team that discovers that.

 

[jdeb]

he needs more than a defense behind him, he needs an out pitch too. he really only has the one good pitch, his sinker, and good defense or no if its off, he gets crushed. he also has little stamina, he often gets hit hard after he hits 75 pitches or so.


get rid of him now while he still has some trade value. im starting to have doubts whether he can ever be fixed, and id rather have it be some other team that discovers that.

He has good movement on all of his pitches and that is what counts. Out pitch? Overated. A good pitch is an out pitch every time.
I used to pitch and having outs get through the wide holes is very discouraging. He is a very smart pitcher. I watched nearly all of his starts and the guy can pitch. He is not Verlander but he is not that far away either. Just my opinion. I don't like the way Leyland has used him either. I think Leyland gets inside some pitchers heads and messes with them.

 

[sggatecl]

Porcello's WHIP has gone up every single season due to the massive amount of hits allowed (2nd worst in MLB) and that terrifies me. However he doesn't walk many batters (Tied with CC at 14th in MLB). His HRs allowed have gone down every season as well (Tied with C. Kershaw and David Price at 16th in MLB).

I guess just looking at those simple numbers, I would buy into the opinion that if the defense was improved, Porcello would be more efficient. Only time will tell I suppose.

 

[kingofdetroit57]

Our defense is locked in as average or below at the corners for quite a while, and we've always shown interest in putting hitters in the lineup over defensive guys. If that's still the philosophy of the organization going forward it makes sense to trade Porcello. I'm not saying we give him away either... he should net a nice return in a trade.

 

[kalinecountry]

If the Tigers don't sign Sanchez or find an upgrade for Rick, he will stay.

but I think the 2013 year will be his make or break with the Tigers.
as pointed out the hits per 9 innings and whip continues to rise.
The pitch that was hammered is his slider. He needs to mostly abandon it.
But without an 'out' pitch, he is probably going to give more of the same.
Part of me wants to keep him and see when he improves, with maturity/experience,
the other part tells me it isn't going to happen and he will always be a low 4 or a 5.

 

[Rebbiv]

There are 153 MLB starters that have at least 160 IP Away as a starter since 2009.

Porcello's Rankings

35th in BB/9

44th in Innings Pitched

47th in ERA - FIP

52nd in xFIP

60th in HR/9

99th in ERA

105th wOBA

117th in OPP OBP

119th in WHIP


Porcello turns 24 in a couple of weeks. While he will probably never be a #1 or #2, he could be or is a very consistent and durable #3. And he certainly has been that way since 2009. His stats aren't glamorous and they probably will never be.

The concern for him is stamina and economy of pitches. Hence, why the suggestion that he needs to develop at least one more viable pitch (out pitch).

Teams are interested in him, because most teams rarely get 3 starters to start more than 27 games in a season.

DET having a starter with 27 GS or more (NYY) KCR

2012 = 3 (4) 2
2011 = 4 (3) 2
2010 = 4 (3) 2
2009 = 3 (4) 1
2008 = 4 (2) 3 - 75 wins
2007 = 3 (3) 2
2006 = 4 (4) 1
2005 = 4 (2) 3
2004 = 4 (3) 1
2003 = 3 (4) 1

AVG 3.6 (3.2) 1.8

Detroit fans are spoiled in having 4 starters that can go out year to year and start 27 games or more. Take a look at the MLB over the last 10 years. Good teams have 3-4 starters that get 27 or more games started. Bad teams are lucky to have 2 ore more.

If we further restrict this to 31 GS, then the numbers are even more telling.


Porcello has better value than most of you wish or think. Yet, he can be frustrating when you compare him to Verlander, Scherzer and Fister.


A point. Josh Beckett has been in the league 11 full seasons. Only twice has he had 31 GS or more in a season. Only 6 times has he had 28 or more GS in a season. Cliff Lee has been around 9 full seasons, and only 5 times has he had 31 GS or more.

31 GS or more since 2009

Verlander 4 of 4 100%
Scherzer 3 of 4 75%
Porcello 3 of 4 75%
A. Sanchez 3 of 4 75%
C. Lee 2 of 4 50%
Fister 1 of 4 25.0%
Beckett 1 of 4 25.0%

 

[Mitchrapp]

With Comerica park and the defense, Prince and Miggy will be here for awhile - it makes sense to get fly ball pitchers. So trading Porcello, IMO would be a good idea.

 

[Mitchrapp]

There are 153 MLB starters that have at least 160 IP Away as a starter since 2009.

Porcello's R. kings

35th in BB/9

44th in Innings Pitched

47th in ERA - FIP

52nd in xFIP

60th in HR/9

99th in ERA

105th wOBA

117th in OPP OBP

119th in WHIP


Porcello turns 24 in a couple of weeks. While he will probably never be a #1 or #2, he could be or is a very consistent and durable #3. And he certainly has been that way since 2009. His stats aren't glamorous and they probably will never be.

The concern for him is stamina and economy of pitches. Hence, why the suggestion that he needs to develop at least one more viable pitch (out pitch).

Teams are interested in him, because most teams rarely get 3 starters to start more than 27 games in a season.

DET having a starter with 27 GS or more (NYY) KCR

2012 = 3 (4) 2
2011 = 4 (3) 2
2010 = 4 (3) 2
2009 = 3 (4) 1
2008 = 4 (2) 3 - 75 wins
2007 = 3 (3) 2
2006 = 4 (4) 1
2005 = 4 (2) 3
2004 = 4 (3) 1
2003 = 3 (4) 1

AVG 3.6 (3.2) 1.8

Detroit fans are spoiled in having 4 starters that can go out year to year and start 27 games or more. Take a look at the MLB over the last 10 years. Good teams have 3-4 starters that get 27 or more games started. Bad teams are lucky to have 2 ore more.

If we further restrict this to 31 GS, then the numbers are even more telling.


Porcello has better value than most of you wish or think. Yet, he can be frustrating when you compare him to Verlander, Scherzer and Fister.


A point. Josh Beckett has been in the league 11 full seasons. Only twice has he had 31 GS or more in a season. Only 6 times has he had 28 or more GS in a season. Cliff Lee has been around 9 full seasons, and only 5 times has he had 31 GS or more.

31 GS or more since 2009

Verlander 4 of 4 100%
Scherzer 3 of 4 75%
Porcello 3 of 4 75%
A. Sanchez 3 of 4 75%
C. Lee 2 of 4 50%
Fister 1 of 4 25.0%
Beckett 1 of 4 25.0%

You post stats where RP ranks poorly and then bring up GS. I love having a guy throw 220+ innings and not miss starts but I'll take the 1 of 4 31 starts Fister instead.

 

[Rebbiv]

You post stats where RP ranks poorly and then bring up GS. I love having a guy throw 220+ innings and not miss starts but I'll take the 1 of 4 31 starts Fister instead.

With the 1-4 starts, you also get 3 starts from Turner, 3 starts from Wilk, 3 starts from Crosby.

Since 2009 with DET, less than 10 GS


Below 0-1 3 GS 12.3 IP 16 H 6 ER 3 BB 6 SO 4.38 ERA 1.54 WHIP

Willis 1-2 8 GS 42.3 IP 47 H 22 ER 26 BB 33 SO 4.68 ERA 1.72 WHIP


Oliver 0-5 7 GS 31.6 IP 37 H 25 ER 21 BB 23 SO 7.11 ERA 1.83 WHIP

Wilk 0-3 3 GS 11.0 IP 21 H 10 ER 3 BB 7 SO 8.18 ERA 2.18 WHIP

Turner 1-2 6 GS 25.0 IP 34 H 23 ER 11 BB 15 SO 8.28 ERA 1.80 WHIP

Furbush 0-2 2 GS 7.3 IP 14 H 7 ER 3 BB 7 SO 8.59 ERA 2.32 WHIP

Figaro 0-1 1 GS 5.0 IP 8 H 5 ER 2 BB 1 SO 9.00 ERA 2.00 WHIP

B. Thomas 0-0 2 GS 6.0 IP 11 H 6 ER 5 BB 1 SO 9.00 ERA 2.67 WHIP

Crosby 1-1 3 GS 12.3 IP 15 H 13 ER 11 BB 9 SO 9.49 ERA 2.11 WHIP

Bonine 0-1 1 GS 3.3 IP 8 H 5 ER 1 BB 1 SO 13.50 ERA 2.70 WHIP


TOTAL 3-18 36 GS 156.3 IP 211 H 122 ER 87 BB 103 SO 7.02 ERA 1.91 WHIP


On average over the last 3 years, DET gets 12 GS from slugs.

 

[Thumb]

He has good movement on all of his pitches and that is what counts. Out pitch? Overated. A good pitch is an out pitch every time.
I used to pitch and having outs get through the wide holes is very discouraging. He is a very smart pitcher. I watched nearly all of his starts and the guy can pitch. He is not Verlander but he is not that far away either. Just my opinion. I don't like the way Leyland has used him either. I think Leyland gets inside some pitchers heads and messes with them.

Terrible statement.

The term out-pitch does not mean that's the pitch you always use to get an out, but it's a deceptive pitch, and they're very necessary.

Many guys use a slider, or in the case of guys with good fastballs (JV, Max, CC, etc.), often the changeup. Porcello has 1 go to pitch, and that's the 2-seam FB/sinker. When guys know that's coming, it equals trouble (like Valverde and the fastball) and Rick currently has no other pitch that is not obvious, you can spot his curve 5 seconds before he throws it. If Porcello can develop a good slider, or even a riding 4 seam FB, he would have much more success.

That and he needs to boost his stamina, which might be a result of him throwing 1 pitch 90% of the time.

But put Porcello on a team like LAA, with excellent defense, and he would do much better I believe, it would also allow him some leeway as to developing pitches, where a mistake might not cost as much as it would in Detroit.

 

[Mitchrapp]

With the 1-4 starts, you also get 3 starts from Turner, 3 starts from Wilk, 3 starts from Crosby.

Since 2009 with DET, less than 10 GS


Below 0-1 3 GS 12.3 IP 16 H 6 ER 3 BB 6 SO 4.38 ERA 1.54 WHIP

Willis 1-2 8 GS 42.3 IP 47 H 22 ER 26 BB 33 SO 4.68 ERA 1.72 WHIP


Oliver 0-5 7 GS 31.6 IP 37 H 25 ER 21 BB 23 SO 7.11 ERA 1.83 WHIP

Wilk 0-3 3 GS 11.0 IP 21 H 10 ER 3 BB 7 SO 8.18 ERA 2.18 WHIP

Turner 1-2 6 GS 25.0 IP 34 H 23 ER 11 BB 15 SO 8.28 ERA 1.80 WHIP

Furbush 0-2 2 GS 7.3 IP 14 H 7 ER 3 BB 7 SO 8.59 ERA 2.32 WHIP

Figaro 0-1 1 GS 5.0 IP 8 H 5 ER 2 BB 1 SO 9.00 ERA 2.00 WHIP

B. Thomas 0-0 2 GS 6.0 IP 11 H 6 ER 5 BB 1 SO 9.00 ERA 2.67 WHIP

Crosby 1-1 3 GS 12.3 IP 15 H 13 ER 11 BB 9 SO 9.49 ERA 2.11 WHIP

Bonine 0-1 1 GS 3.3 IP 8 H 5 ER 1 BB 1 SO 13.50 ERA 2.70 WHIP


TOTAL 3-18 36 GS 156.3 IP 211 H 122 ER 87 BB 103 SO 7.02 ERA 1.91 WHIP


On average over the last 3 years, DET gets 12 GS from slugs.

That's a lot of terrible stuff though I'd be curious, in the last 3 years, what replacement SP's numbers + Fister equaled and if it amounted to better or worse than Porcello's numbers.

 

[Rebbiv]

Mitch, I think you are missing the point. Depending on who we have to replace Porcello, you would still have slugs filling in.

Now, if we signed Sanchez and kept Porcello, the lesser the chance of any slugs starting for DET.

Keep in mind that Porcello has been about 2 Wins Above Replacement level over the last 3-4 years. The Tigers have not received replacement level production from any of the above "slug" starters.

Also, while Porcello only averages 5.92 IP/GS, the "slugs" have averaged 4.34 IP/GS.

2010-2012

Verlander 7.14 IP/GS
Fister 6.46 IP/GS
Scherzer 6.02 IP/GS
Porcello 5.92 IP/GS

2012 AL AVG Starter 5.88 IP/GS

 

[mjsb2]

Man, I would hard pressed to trade him, I would have to get a lot in return. Give the kid some defense and his stats would be a lot better. I would think long and hard about trading a 53.2 % ground ball pitcher. He pitched brilliantly in many games.... I'm just saying

I would never hesitate to trade a pitcher with the stamina of a girl, who doesn't strike people out, and turns every LHH into Miguel Cabrera.

A good GB rate is the only good thing he has going for him.

 

[mjsb2]

He has good movement on all of his pitches and that is what counts. Out pitch? Overated. A good pitch is an out pitch every time.
I used to pitch and having outs get through the wide holes is very discouraging. He is a very smart pitcher. I watched nearly all of his starts and the guy can pitch. He is not Verlander but he is not that far away either. Just my opinion. I don't like the way Leyland has used him either. I think Leyland gets inside some pitchers heads and messes with them.

He can't strike people out.

His pitches don't have good movement.

In fact, he doesn't have any good pitches.

Not one of his pitches would rate as plus, including his sinker which has not only not improved, but has gotten worse since his rookie year.

He is about as close to Verlander as Brandon Inge is to Miguel Cabrera.

 

[tomdalton22]

He can't strike people out.

His pitches don't have good movement.

In fact, he doesn't have any good pitches.

Not one of his pitches would rate as plus, including his sinker which has not only not improved, but has gotten worse since his rookie year.

He is about as close to Verlander as Brandon Inge is to Miguel Cabrera.

All that may be true but you still need a suitable replacement....ideally someone better.