Tigers vs. royals Game Thread Sept. 27

[coulomb]

awesome, Miggy tried to pick up prince and put him on his back, for a second. Then he thought better of it.

 

[mhughes0021]

GGGGOOOOOOOOOOooooooooooooo RAYYYYSSSSS!!!!!!!

 

[tigerfan2272]

Huge win. Doesn't matter how we got it, we got it.

 

[jdbaker1]

I will take it, now lets win a few on the road. P.S. Go Rays.

 

[kalinecountry]

Tigers win 5 - 4, second 1 run Win in a row,
Fister an improbable 9 straight batters strike out,
Benoit with the blown save and vulture win,
Tigers finish up at Comerica with a 50 win home record and 31 losses,
Tigers Victory Cigar.

Missed all the dramatics after an early post figured they would cruise easily, as the royals lookedlike they were already on the jet back to kansas city, went to visit a neighbor friend in the hospital,
Wow did I miss history in the making with Fister!!

 

[cmlfactor]

After 156 games of getting screwed in the butt are the baseball gods finally smiling on this team???

Don't know but I hope it lasts...

 

[@Stakesarehigh]

game never should have gotten to that...but it's a win.

 

[biggunsbob]

thank you Alex!!!

 

[biggunsbob]

glad his ball hit the ground...

 

[tigermud]

5 Errors for KC today!, if I were a Soxs fan, (which i'm not) but if I were I might wonder if KC blew this series on purpose..

 

[@Stakesarehigh]

rangers beating the a's pretty well....hopefully that further pumps up the rays

 

[cmlfactor]

All the pitchers that you would think MIGHT have had 9 consecutive Ks. Clemens. Martinez. Ryan. Our own JV and Scherzer.

Dougie flippin' Fister. Love it.

 

[coulomb]

Indians fired acta today, don't know if that will affect anything. sox still have 3 at clev.

 

[cmlfactor]

Indians fired acta today, don't know if that will affect anything. sox still have 3 at clev.

Sometimes it changes the attitude in the clubhouse and has the guys walking a little lighter. Time will tell.

 

[kalinecountry]

Tigers complete four-game sweep of kansas city royals in Detroit for first time in club history.

Tigers won 50th game at home this season -- 4th straight season with 50+ wins at home.

Leyland went to Benoit in the ninth because Valverde was sick today.
and Benoit should have taken some immodium before he pitched.

 

[byco42]

in the 3rd inning...yes...in the bottom of the 9th to move the winning run to 3b with only one out....the right call

It's not 1979 and Gene Mauch is dead. So is the blind strategy of the sac bunt.

In that situation, here are the Run Expectancy numbers over the last 50 years:

1b and 2b no outs: 1.5 (number of runs scored in an inning)
2b and 3b 1 out: 1.4

Argument ended, since the Tigers needed only one run.

But look at this:

Here's the probability that a run will score at all:

1b and 2b no outs: .643
2b and 3b 1 out: .698

To me, the added 5-hundredths of a percent is not worth the risk. What the botched bunt created instead:

1b and 2b 1 out: .429 probability

The odds were against Santiago, or any bunter moving the runners in a sac bunt in the first place.

 

[nydo77]

I hate them. Giving the opposition outs is bad baseball.

An out for a run is a great trade, no matter how you look at it (in this specific situation). Think situationally. Then think about what the Tigers usually do when we have that situation and don't bunt.......

Of course, it all depends on having players that can bunt reliably, which I don't have much confidence on with this team.

 

[nydo77]

It's not 1979 and Gene Mauch is dead. So is the blind strategy of the sac bunt.

In that situation, here are the Run Expectancy numbers over the last 50 years:

1b and 2b no outs: 1.5 (number of runs scored in an inning)
2b and 3b 1 out: 1.4

Argument ended, since the Tigers needed only one run.

But look at this:

Here's the probability that a run will score at all:

1b and 2b no outs: .643
2b and 3b 1 out: .698

To me, the added 5-hundredths of a percent is not worth the risk. What the botched bunt created instead:

1b and 2b 1 out: .429 probability

The odds were against Santiago, or any bunter moving the runners in a sac bunt in the first place.

And yet, basically every single team in baseball still uses the sacrifice bunt in this situation. The statistics are mixed on this, as you pointed out. You also haven't factored in who the runner that would be advanced to third would be. Fielder is not going to run home safely on a single with the KC outfield, generally. Incidentally, you are reading the percentages wrong. That is a 5% difference, no 5/100s of a percent.

 

[byco42]

An out for a run is a great trade, no matter how you look at it (in this specific situation). Think situationally. Then think about what the Tigers usually do when we have that situation and don't bunt.......

Of course, it all depends on having players that can bunt reliably, which I don't have much confidence on with this team.

The numbers do not support that myth. See previous post. And who is the best sac bunt man in baseball today?

 

[byco42]

And yet, basically every single team in baseball still uses the sacrifice bunt in this situation. The statistics are mixed on this, as you pointed out. You also haven't factored in who the runner that would be advanced to third would be. Fielder is not going to run home safely on a single with the KC outfield, generally. Incidentally, you are reading the percentages wrong. That is a 5% difference, no 5/100s of a percent.

This is a 50-year sample. Acknowledge on the 5% difference. I wavered on that. Still not a viable play in my opinion and the stats back me up.

And as for managers still doing this; they are just following tradition instead of the trends.