Torii Hunter

[cmlfactor]

Forget what it does for the line-up...the outfield gaps in Comerica Park just got a whole lot smaller with this signing. Will immensely help out power pitchers like JV and Max...

 

[tigersofjustice]

Why, you're not paying it?

Because I want the Tigers to get another player with the money that they saved but getting essentially the same player at a cheaper price.

 

[tigersofjustice]

Dirks is a slightly better version of Boesch, thats why. Not abysmal on defense but still not good or great, swings at everything, barely walks, etc. Hunter is the better hitter and player by far, Dirks is at most a platoon player who needs to hit no higher than 6 and should not start every day.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=6453&position=OF&season=2012

Dirks still has an over average rate of production against lefties. If you're going to say Dirks is a platoon player, you had better come up with a better reason than, "Smokes said he was so he must be..."

 

[Mitchrapp]

Because I want the Tigers to get another player with the money that they save but getting essentially the same player at a cheaper price.

Who says they can't? They can get 10 different players, not our money. Again, why do any of you think MI has a money limit?

 

[spockmaster]

its not his actual platoon splits that matter. boesch has usually been decent against lefties, but hes not a fulltime player either. dirks is an impatient free swinger who barely walks and goes through big hot and cold streaks, and hes below avg on d. the best use for him is either as a backup or strong side of a platoon so that he doesnt hurt us much on d and doesnt get overexposed at the plate.

 

[tigersofjustice]

its not his actual platoon splits that matter. boesch has usually been decent against lefties, but hes not a fulltime player either. dirks is an impatient free swinger who barely walks and goes through big hot and cold streaks, and hes below avg on d. the best use for him is either as a backup or strong side of a platoon so that he doesnt hurt us much on d and doesnt get overexposed at the plate.

So what you are really saying is that he's a part time player then.

He's not a platoon guy. He needs to have demonstrated ability to stink vs left handers to be a platoon guy. He's got a great track record to this point against all handedness of pitcher. Fact of the matter is the guy had a great year. I'm not sure why everybody is so eager to relegate him to the bench.

Is he going to crush 30 home runs? No. Is he going to play great defense? No.

But he can probably hit close to .300 with a good amount of doubles and triples and that's pretty good.

 

[Mitchrapp]

He went .251 in 2011 but because he did well in 300 AB in '12 he's suddenly a .300 hitter with lots of doubles and triples? Lol.

 

[spockmaster]

He went .251 in 2011 but because he did well in 300 AB in '12 he's suddenly a .300 hitter with lots of doubles and triples? Lol.

yep. i just dont think he will consistently produce, which means hes a part time player, which means the best use of him is in a platoon. more ABs than a bench player, less than a full time player. it would be a good balance for dirks.

 

[tigersofjustice]

He went .251 in 2011 but because he did well in 300 AB in '12 he's suddenly a .300 hitter with lots of doubles and triples? Lol.

Because he doesn't strike out much (15%) and has a great line drive rate (24%) he can hit CLOSE to .300. Those are generally two skills that all .300 or thereabouts hitters have. He hit .322 this year. I don't know why you wouldn't be willing to give him some benefit of the doubt at this point.

 

[Thumb]

To be fair, this line of thinking about Dirks, was applied to Boesch last off season.

Once again, a guy put up some nice numbers for a while then regressed, and if you bet the future on him, then shame on you.

 

[Mitchrapp]

I like Dirks and hope he does well. But one year means nothing. I'd like to have insurance in case Dirks doesn't do well so we don't have to use BB as the replacement or Garcia.

 

[tigersofjustice]

To be fair, this line of thinking about Dirks, was applied to Boesch last off season.

Once again, a guy put up some nice numbers for a while then regressed, and if you bet the future on him, then shame on you.

True, but you have to take some level of chance on these guys at some point. Just giving them 300 at bats a season you're pretty much always just going to be guessing the next year about how good he actually is.

They gave Boesch at bats this year and it was the right thing to do. Just because it didn't work out doesn't mean it was the wrong decision.

 

[spockmaster]

I don't think giving Boesch another shot was the right decision, personally. All the signs were there that his offensive success had been nothing but a fluke and that his defense was atrocious, and it turned out that assessment was correct.

It just comes down to how you see Dirks. Everything I see in his numbers this year and for his career (including the minors) just says that this year was a fluke and that he will never be a consistent producer. I just see too much of Boesch in him (though not to either extreme of hot or cold), especially in his swing and plate discipline. Granted I'm not a ML scout or anything, but the fact that Dombrowski has publicly stated that he's not sure that Dirks is an everyday player either speaks volumes about my assessment as well; he wouldn't have said it if the majority of the talent evaluators in the organization didn't feel so.


If they do give him the chance, I hope he proves me wrong because it would be great to have a young, cheap, LH outfielder that consistently produces.

 

[Mitchrapp]

The biggest problem with the lineups and Leyland was that he left guys in way too long. Raburn, BB should have been at AAA at mid season or earlier, DY DH sooner etc.

 

[Rebbiv]

So what you are really saying is that he's a part time player then.

He's not a platoon guy. He needs to have demonstrated ability to stink vs left handers to be a platoon guy. He's got a great track record to this point against all handedness of pitcher. Fact of the matter is the guy had a great year. I'm not sure why everybody is so eager to relegate him to the bench.

Is he going to crush 30 home runs? No. Is he going to play great defense? No.

But he can probably hit close to .300 with a good amount of doubles and triples and that's pretty good.

114 Career PAs against LHP is hardly a valid sample size.

There is such a thing as a "fluke" season. This is where a player hits at least 25 points higher than his career average without a significant increase in walk rate. Two good examples are 2000 Darin Erstad and 1961 Norm Cash.

Cash's was at age 26, his 2nd full season. He hit .361 and finished with a career .271. Erstad's also came at age 26 (4th full season). He hit .355 and finished with a career .282. These are extreme examples, but they make a point. Or maybe 2000 Deivi Cruz. .302 BAVG at age 27 (thought to be 24 at the time). He ends with a career .269.


Dirks will be 27 to start the 2013 season. He is what he is at this point. The problem is identifying exactly what that is. He isn't great on defense and does not take a lot of walks. So his value is tied to his BAVG. There isn't a lot to see from his minor stats, except 2 years at AA (.255 BAVG 1st year, .278 BAVG 2nd year).

In 5 years of professional ball, he has never had more than 527 PAs in a season, nor more than 434 PAs at any one level. And only twice of 400 or more.

Boesch is also 27, spent 7 years in professional ball. He has had 6 of his seasons with at least 400 PAs or more.

Boesch minors = .273 BAVG .319 OBP .434 SLG .753 OPS 19.22 PA/BB

Boesch majors = .259 BAVG .315 OBP .414 SLG .719 OPS 15.90 PA/BB


Dirks minors = .289 BAVG .350 OBP .430 SLG .780 OPS 12.83 PA/BB

Dirks majors = .293 BAVG .340 OBP .454 SLG .794 OPS 18.58 PA/BB


Where Boesch improved his walk rate as he progressed, Dirks has regressed. Dirks is probably the better overall player between the two, however not by much. And yes, at age 27 without any real clues to improvement, neither one should be full-time players.

 

[cmlfactor]

I'm sure it was probably mentioned in here somewhere but I'm too lazy to go looking for it. Will Hunter be in right or left?

 

[byco42]

RF is Hunter's ground.

 

[tigersofjustice]

114 Career PAs against LHP is hardly a valid sample size.

There is such a thing as a "fluke" season. This is where a player hits at least 25 points higher than his career average without a significant increase in walk rate. Two good examples are 2000 Darin Erstad and 1961 Norm Cash.

Cash's was at age 26, his 2nd full season. He hit .361 and finished with a career .271. Erstad's also came at age 26 (4th full season). He hit .355 and finished with a career .282. These are extreme examples, but they make a point. Or maybe 2000 Deivi Cruz. .302 BAVG at age 27 (thought to be 24 at the time). He ends with a career .269.


Dirks will be 27 to start the 2013 season. He is what he is at this point. The problem is identifying exactly what that is. He isn't great on defense and does not take a lot of walks. So his value is tied to his BAVG. There isn't a lot to see from his minor stats, except 2 years at AA (.255 BAVG 1st year, .278 BAVG 2nd year).

In 5 years of professional ball, he has never had more than 527 PAs in a season, nor more than 434 PAs at any one level. And only twice of 400 or more.

Boesch is also 27, spent 7 years in professional ball. He has had 6 of his seasons with at least 400 PAs or more.

Boesch minors = .273 BAVG .319 OBP .434 SLG .753 OPS 19.22 PA/BB

Boesch majors = .259 BAVG .315 OBP .414 SLG .719 OPS 15.90 PA/BB


Dirks minors = .289 BAVG .350 OBP .430 SLG .780 OPS 12.83 PA/BB

Dirks majors = .293 BAVG .340 OBP .454 SLG .794 OPS 18.58 PA/BB


Where Boesch improved his walk rate as he progressed, Dirks has regressed. Dirks is probably the better overall player between the two, however not by much. And yes, at age 27 without any real clues to improvement, neither one should be full-time players.

It was a fluke season. Nobody is saying Dirks will hit .320 again. He's capable of hitting .280-.300 though with his low K rate and decent line drive rate.

 

[Mitchrapp]

It was a fluke season. Nobody is saying Dirks will hit .320 again. He's capable of hitting .280-.300 though with his low K rate and decent line drive rate.

How do you know that? Dude hit .251 last year.

 

[tigersofjustice]

How do you know that? Dude hit .251 last year.

Well I don't "know" anything, I make reasonable guesses based on stats. There are very few players who strike out at around 15% of the time or less and hit lower than .280. For the most part, they are small infielders with absolutely no power and not fairly well built outfielders that can drive the ball.