Ukraine Riots

[Michchamp]

You mean the Crimean Navy.

http://rt.com/news/navy-chief-ukraine-crimea-485/

"Crimea forms its own fleet as Ukraine Navy chief sides with region"

...and by that, what is really meant is "Surrender the ships to Russia? Done."

oh. I read about that guy, but I thought the government sacked him before he could formally hand anything over. But... given that he's there surrounded by the Russian army and navy, and they are up in Kyiv, I guess his decision holds more water.

 

[Gulo Blue]

oh. I read about that guy, but I thought the government sacked him before he could formally hand anything over. But... given that he's there surrounded by the Russian army and navy, and they are up in Kyiv, I guess his decision holds more water.

I thought I read something about a Ukrainian ship flying a Russian flag.

 

[zyxt9]

i hope that if Poland is mobilizing that the Baltic states and Belarus have the keys in the ignitions and motors running. having moldova and romania also in an alert mode would be helpful. if only Poland mobilizes, that leaves the others looking vulnerable to flank attacks.

even more significantly will be what happens with CVN-77 George H. W. Bush. i think the US has to move the carrier into the Black Sea, but i also think it would be best to have 2 carriers there to provide a more overwhelming force capable of taking on whatever the Russians have there. i'm sure they are working hard right now to track down any and all Russian subs in the Med and Black Sea. i know there are a couple of ships already in the Black Sea, but a carrier heading that direction means Putin better decide quickly what he wants to do otherwise he is putting his forces at a bigger disadvantage. not many people realize how much damage a single carrier can do.

i'm sure the Air Force has their drones, B-2 Spirits, and F-117 Nighthawks on the ready too. Russia won't know what hit them if the US sends those teams in. between them, Russian radars will be taken out with great efficiency and their forces will be flying virtually blind. yes, the Russian Air Force is far better than what the US has gone up against in recent conflicts, but the bulk of their air force actually uses very similar equipment that the US has completely wiped out with ease. while the number of planes would be greater, the speed, accuracy, and lethality of the US forces will have air superiority in short order, then NATOs planes can follow up with assaults on naval and ground forces. with complete control of the skies, those ground and naval forces are sitting ducks. i am certain Putin is underestimating how quickly the US can and will take out his military, regardless of how many millions he tries to throw against them. it will be like the marine reports of how japan sent wave after wave to attack machine guns and the bodies piled up so high that the marines actually had to go out and remove them in order to maintain their lines of sight in the kill zone.

the problem after that is the obvious, will Putin up the ante by deploying nukes of any fashion? will he obliterate Crimea with some tactical nukes to thumb his nose at NATO/EU/new Ukranian gov't? or would he order the MAD deployment of nukes??? at that point i would hope his military would overthrow him and refuse to use any nukes, but many of those guys would love the opportunity to launch a MAD offensive i'm afraid.

this situation, i believe, will result in Putin being removed from power within two years, quite possibly in under 6 months. hopefully the Russian people actually demand change and alignment with NATO, but they are pretty thick-headed.

 

[Thumb]

If NATO does not support Poland, a member state, it has essentially violated it's charter.

That depends. NATO does not have to support Poland unless Poland itself is attacked. [Article V] Article V does not apply to Poland going into Ukraine and supporting them.

Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania have since invoked Article IV [as of March 2014], which means all NATO countries are aware those members consider the Crimean invasion a threat, and are on alert.

 

[Thumb]

It's also worth nothing that most the old the Soviet Republics and Eastern Bloc nations west of Russia have joined NATO, almost like they didn't trust Russia to keep to itself.

I think if this gets settled with little conflict even with Russia claiming the Crimea, Ukraine will ask to join NATO afterwards.

 

[Michchamp]

... yes, the Russian Air Force is far better than what the US has gone up against in recent conflicts, but the bulk of their air force actually uses very similar equipment that the US has completely wiped out with ease. ...

I read accounts of us violating their air space during the Cold War. we were often more aggressive about doing it than they were, and they were often helpless to respond, and when they tried to, they did things like this. I also read that Russian armed forces have gotten better since the days of them losing in Chechnya, but I assume that our old Cold War margin of superiority hasn't gone away since then. we spend WAY more money than they do, and our arms have been thoroughly battle tested over the last couple decades by killing arabs, afghans, pakistanis, and palestinians. USA! USA!

That depends. NATO does not have to support Poland unless Poland itself is attacked. [Article V] Article V does not apply to Poland going into Ukraine and supporting them.

Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania have since invoked Article IV [as of March 2014], which means all NATO countries are aware those members consider the Crimean invasion a threat, and are on alert.

good point. as long as they don't hit the Baltic countries or go further west than the Ukrainian border w/Poland & Romania, or attack Turkey, technically, NATO has an excuse to sit on its hands.

 

[Gulo Blue]

i think the US has to move the carrier into the Black Sea, but i also think it would be best to have 2 carriers there to provide a more overwhelming force capable of taking on whatever the Russians have there.

Maybe move ships in that direction, but before getting too close, let's see if the OSCE idea works. Moving into the Black Sea makes negotiating a more difficult; it increases the gains Russia has to make to look like they didn't just back down.

 

[Gulo Blue]

Wikipedia point floating around:

Russia had incurred so large a war debt from the Crimean War that Alexander II, realising the difficulty of defending Alaska, decided to sell it to a third party, the United States, in 1867.

 

[zyxt9]

Maybe move ships in that direction, but before getting too close, let's see if the OSCE idea works. Moving into the Black Sea makes negotiating a more difficult; it increases the gains Russia has to make to look like they didn't just back down.

True, but moving troops into Crimea kind of did that already, IMO. The Navy could move the carrier into the southeast section of the Black Sea and announce they are just keeping an eye on the situation as opposed to bringing it within a closer area that would be overtly threatening. The Black Sea is a pretty big body of water, so it can sit 200 miles off the coast just like the Russian ship sitting in and/or around Cuba these days. Sure that may just be a "spy ship", but hey, you always want to be the guy carrying the bigger stick otherwise you open yourself up to being smacked around.

 

[zyxt9]

Wikipedia point floating around:

Russia had incurred so large a war debt from the Crimean War that Alexander II, realising the difficulty of defending Alaska, decided to sell it to a third party, the United States, in 1867.

And for Putin his actions have incurred a political debt that will be difficult to overcome after this.

1. Pull out troops, showing you didn't have the balls to carry through so Russians decide they want to install someone with more guts.
2. Attack and for a probable short period of time keep Crimea, only to have NATO wreak extreme havoc on Russian forces.
3. An agreement is reached and Crimea is given back to Russia, but Russians wonder why Putin had to bring the region to the brink of war, endangering more lives than necessary.

I can see either the military wanting to overthrow him for not going to war or the people removing him for coming so close to war unnecessarily to protect his Ukranian puppet.

Maybe Putin survives this without being removed from office, but I don't believe it looks promising at this point. Regardless, I cannot help but believe Russians will be wiping their butts with newspaper one day and scream, "I"VE HAD IT!!! I WANT REAL TOILET PAPER DAMN IT!!!!!"

 

[Thumb]

Maybe move ships in that direction, but before getting too close, let's see if the OSCE idea works. Moving into the Black Sea makes negotiating a more difficult; it increases the gains Russia has to make to look like they didn't just back down.

This is what I meant by saying Putin might burn something down rather than admit defeat.

Saving face for someone who rules with intimidation and muscle is priority #1.

 

[Michchamp]

Maybe move ships in that direction, but before getting too close, let's see if the OSCE idea works. Moving into the Black Sea makes negotiating a more difficult; it increases the gains Russia has to make to look like they didn't just back down.

He has to have some time to continue looking bellicose before taking the OSCE out at least. he can't just jump at it 5 minutes after Obama suggesting it, without looking weak. I assume he'll do a little more sabre-rattling first.

And NATO can't do anything to antagonize him toward war after suggesting the OSCE thing, or else it'll look like he's folding to them as well.

on the flip side, if he really is spoiling for war, they're just giving him more time to prepare.

Wikipedia point floating around:

Russia had incurred so large a war debt from the Crimean War that Alexander II, realising the difficulty of defending Alaska, decided to sell it to a third party, the United States, in 1867.

Heh. I never knew that. that war was really a mess. But it shows how useless Crimea really is to Russia in a way. Sure it's useful to have another port on the Black Sea, but no navy is entering or leaving the Black Sea without Turkey's permission. In 1854, the British and French were able to take the war right to Russia.

 

[Gulo Blue]

Normally I get my Fox News talking points 3rd hand via MC, but this time I might be a step ahead. Apparently, back in 2008 Palin said Obama's indecision regarding the invasion of Georgia would encourage Putin to go ahead and invade Ukrane. Please don't do it US media. No more Palin on camera, please.

 

[jwlcosu]

Putin is not Hitler.

And by bringing that up, are you suggesting we start a war with Russia?

Clearly not. Goes without saying. There is a land grab going on, however, and some/many are suggesting that it's cool/prudent to give Putin the peninsula and hope the beast is satisfied. The parallel seems obvious, no?

Starting a war with Russia? No, few would suggest that. Better, in my opinion, that we ride the consequences of the last two Presidential elections out and do a better job of picking next time around. How many of you jeered this exchange?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Szn7oK5fwCM

 

[Michchamp]

Clearly not. Goes without saying. There is a land grab going on, however, and some/many are suggesting that it's cool/prudent to give Putin the peninsula and hope the beast is satisfied. The parallel seems obvious, no?

Starting a war with Russia? No, few would suggest that. Better, in my opinion, that we ride the consequences of the last two Presidential elections out and do a better job of picking next time around. How many of you jeered this exchange?

get real. Romney had no idea this would happen, nor would he have done shit about it prior to now.

Bush didn't do SHIT when Russia invaded Georgia and he had been supply Georgia with weapons & training prior to that.

To be fair, the comparisons to Hitler and appeasement may be apt in this case, but they haven't been apt the prior 100s of times moronic conservative blowhards made them.

 

[zyxt9]

It would not surprise me that if he pulls off getting Crimea, he might consider working very hard at undermining the Ukraine elections to get another puppet in charge, then after some brouhaha tries to retake Ukraine. I don't think it a huge leap to envision that as one of many potential futures. However, I do not believe the appeasements will last past that. Say he then did the same in Belarus, Baltics, and Moldova...at some point NATO would bitch slap him.

The only reason I'm good with Crimea is due to large number of Russian people living there; however, I know from my years here in NY that Russians are fully capable of moving into another country en masse and bring their own way of life with them instead of adopting the cultures and lifestyles of place they are moving into. In no small way though New York was the perfect place for their corruption to land in the US, fit like a glove.

 

[Michchamp]

It would not surprise me that if he pulls off getting Crimea, he might consider working very hard at undermining the Ukraine elections to get another puppet in charge, then after some brouhaha tries to retake Ukraine. I don't think it a huge leap to envision that as one of many potential futures. However, I do not believe the appeasements will last past that. Say he then did the same in Belarus, Baltics, and Moldova...at some point NATO would bitch slap him.

...

the Baltics are all NATO members. Belarus has been ruled by a pro-Russian puppet (Lukashenka) for almost its entire post-Soviet history, though according to my wife protests are *just* beginning there as well.

 

[Gulo Blue]

A previous US NATO rep was on air saying it's not about Crimea for Putin. He wants Ukraine. Crimea wouldn't cut it. Don't know much about how reasonable/knowledgeable that guy is though.

 

[Michchamp]

Normally I get my Fox News talking points 3rd hand via MC, but this time I might be a step ahead. Apparently, back in 2008 Palin said Obama's indecision regarding the invasion of Georgia would encourage Putin to go ahead and invade Ukrane. Please don't do it US media.
No more Palin on camera, please.

I follow her on twitter, so I happen to know she was on Hannity tonight to discuss the situation in Ukraine.

 

[Thumb]

I follow her on twitter, so I happen to know she was on Hannity tonight to discuss the situation in Ukraine.