Ukraine Riots

[Michchamp]

Russian parliament authorizes use of force...

doesn't look like anything is going to get the Russians out of Crimea, save a full blown war. We're keeping our fingers crossed that they just take Crimea and calls it even.

 

[Thumb]

Obama called Putin to remind him the US and UK are obligated by treaty to defend Ukraine with military force from invading countries. Also basically threatening to boycott the G8 summit in Sochi.

Hopefully Putin won't get greedy and try for an old-style land grab before agreements can be drawn up. But my guess is he'll push as far west as possible until he gets a military response then demand a cease-fire with him claiming all lands rear of the Russian lines.

 

[spockmaster]

Fucking god damnit fuck.

 

[spockmaster]

Putin is playing a brinkmanship game. We dont want war with Russia, and I seriously doubt he wants war with us. He has an idea of how far he can push us without going over the line, and I think his goal (and the probable eventual outcome of this) is annexing Crimea with little to no fighting. He probably realizes that if he pushes out from Crimea or it gets out of hand in Crimea, it means war (maybe world war), but he's also not going to back down without Crimea either.

Just let him have it. Crimea has only been a part of Ukraine since the 50s (it had been part of the Russian empire for long before that), its largely ethnic russian, and Russia has military bases there. Its not worth war.

 

[Michchamp]

Putin is playing a brinkmanship game. We dont want war with Russia, and I seriously doubt he wants war with us. He has an idea of how far he can push us without going over the line, and I think his goal (and the probable eventual outcome of this) is annexing Crimea with little to no fighting. He probably realizes that if he pushes out from Crimea or it gets out of hand in Crimea, it means war (maybe world war), but he's also not going to back down without Crimea either.

Just let him have it. Crimea has only been a part of Ukraine since the 50s (it had been part of the Russian empire for long before that), its largely ethnic russian, and Russia has military bases there. Its not worth war.

agreed. I was thinking it would present problems, as Russia would have to overfly Ukrainian territory to get there, but they really don't. the taman peninsula immediately east of Crimea is Russian territory.

 

[Thumb]

I think it's about more than the Crimea, Putin wants the rest of Ukraine out of the EU hands. He probably only withdraws once he has gotten the Crimea, plus some other lands, and a guarantee the rest of Ukraine will join his group not the EU.

 

[spockmaster]

I also find it highly ironic that the US Secretary of State is condemning an invasion of a sovereign nation under false pretenses given what we did to Iraq 10 years ago. Not that either move is in any way right, but apparently we're the only ones allowed to do it.

 

[Thumb]

I also find it highly ironic that the US Secretary of State is condemning an invasion of a sovereign nation under false pretenses given what we did to Iraq 10 years ago. Not that either move is in any way right, but apparently we're the only ones allowed to do it.

Well the Bush Administration leaned heavily on what it called a breach of UN Security Council Resolution 1441, as a reason to invade, even after the Security Council failed to authorize the use of force.

So while it didn't make it right for G.W.; it's really not the same thing at all with Putin.

 

[Michchamp]

Well the Bush Administration leaned heavily on what it called a breach of UN Security Council Resolution 1441, as a reason to invade, even after the Security Council failed to authorize the use of force.

So while it didn't make it right for G.W.; it's really not the same thing at all with Putin.

we can say "Okay, that was fucking shitty what we did, but this is WAY worse, and this is like really fucking shitty. I mean, come on... Saddam was a bad guy. And I know we put out lots of false propaganda to make him seem worse, but he did torture his own people. Well, yes, we tortured them too while we were occupying them... but... dude, seriously, are you going to defend Putin? Come on..."

 

[Thumb]

we can say "Okay, that was fucking shitty what we did, but this is WAY worse, and this is like really fucking shitty. I mean, come on... Saddam was a bad guy. And I know we put out lots of false propaganda to make him seem worse, but he did torture his own people. Well, yes, we tortured them too while we were occupying them... but... dude, seriously, are you going to defend Putin? Come on..."

Well the biggest difference of US involvement this time is, we have no choice about it. We signed a treaty with Ukraine, and while I'd rather not have our military involved in eastern Europe, we told Ukraine, "hey if someone makes a move, we have your back" and we have to stand by that, or else we don't stand for anything. This goes for the UK as well.

Putin could very well be forcing WWIII, and I don't think he would like it outcome. Even if no nuclear weapons are used, He'll have to deal with the US, UK, likely also Germany (who could probably take Russia with one hand behind their backs), Japan, Australia, Canada, and then China might decide that parts of Siberia are ripe for the taking....Russia might not even have many friends if it comes to that, even from it's old eastern-bloc allies.

Putin may well be insane as they come, a KGB experiment gone wrong.

 

[Michchamp]

...

Putin may well be insane as they come, a KGB experiment gone wrong.

I don't think he's insane.

I don't know what he'll do, but if you look at the casualty counts from their invasion of Georgia in '08... it wasn't a walkover for the Russian Army or air force even.

all the Ukrainian regular army has to do is buy time to fully mobilize the reserves & they can count on US/EU supplying them weapons. If the Georgian army could inflict heavy casualties on the Russians using western weapons, Ukraine should be able to do a lot better.

the resolve of the Ukrainian people to oppose Russia is pretty clear by now... so Putin's forces will have to contend with a lot of fighting with Ukrainian partisans as well as the Ukrainian military.

plus, you can bet Poland will mobilize in support of Ukraine... if not the rest of the EU.

and as you point out, Russia has a lot of enemies already, including existing border disputes with Georgia, China, and Japan, and its own problems with Muslim separatists. a catastrophic defeat to Ukraine will open up multiple cans of worms.

Putin may be a lot of things, but he didn't get where he is by being crazy and stupid.

 

[Michchamp]

this article is a pretty good summary of the events, and does a good job dispelling a lot of the myths, rumors, and propaganda spread by both sides.

this article suggest Obama mentioned the OSCE as giving Russia an "out" to back down, while allowing them to retain de facto control of the Crimea.

 

[Thumb]

Putin may be a lot of things, but he didn't get where he is by being crazy and stupid.

I never said he was stupid, but plenty of leaders amassed a great deal of power and were crazy as batshit. Look at the dipshit in N. Korea, look at the mayor of Toronto, plenty of guys with loose screws.

Now I don't mean to say Putin is insane as in totally nuts, but more likely similar to a sociopath, where he just doesn't give a fuck one way or the other. He seems very likely the type of guy who would rather burn something down rather than admit defeat.

 

[Michchamp]

I never said he was stupid, but plenty of leaders amassed a great deal of power and were crazy as batshit. Look at the dipshit in N. Korea, look at the mayor of Toronto, plenty of guys with loose screws.

Now I don't mean to say Putin is insane as in totally nuts, but more likely similar to a sociopath, where he just doesn't give a fuck one way or the other. He seems very likely the type of guy who would rather burn something down rather than admit defeat.

I still don't think he would go that far.

as much as people often considered the USSR or Putin's Russia "totalitarian," aside from the Stalin years, none of their leaders operated without some domestic opposition, either within the Party or from other elements of the government. when they fucked up, as Khrushchev did, they were forced out.

I think if Putin committed Russia to some ruinous war, his ass would be on the line. He'd be taken out by the other oligarchs and gangsters who would see their fortunes ruined when Russian trade is cut with the rest of the world.

 

[jwlcosu]

Russian parliament authorizes use of force...

doesn't look like anything is going to get the Russians out of Crimea, save a full blown war. We're keeping our fingers crossed that they just take Crimea and calls it even.

Fingers crossed? Take Crimera and call it even?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neville_Chamberlain

 

[spockmaster]

Putin is not Hitler.

And by bringing that up, are you suggesting we start a war with Russia?

 

[Michchamp]

Putin is not Hitler.

And by bringing that up, are you suggesting we start a war with Russia?

If your worldview is created by fox, beck, palin, breitbart, etc, that's your go-to analogy for pretty much all foreign policy.

 

[spockmaster]

If your worldview is created by fox, beck, palin, breitbart, etc, that's your go-to analogy for pretty much all foreign policy.

Good point.

 

[tinselwolverine]

It's hardly his silliest or most nonsenical post ever.

 

[tinselwolverine]

That said...do you think that Secretary of State Kerry has as yet informed the President that the 1980s called...?