Do you honestly think any program outside of Kentucky could unexpectedly lose their 4 or 5 best players (counting Stauskus, Robinson, Levert, Walton; you could argue that McGary was viewed as a 2-year guy coming in) and not struggle? Shit, I'd argue that most teams would fare much worse than UM has.
And I think you're a little misguided about Beilein going after projects. He did not "go after" MAAR and Dawkins. They were plan Z's that have somehow turned into solid players as true freshmen. I can see calling the big men projects, and obviously Chatman (though he was rated just as highly as McGary coming out), but the plan was to supplement them with highly rated guys like Devin Booker, Bates-Diop, JaSean Tate among others. Sure, you could complain that we missed out on them, but it's not like he hasn't tried to attract top talent.