Upton to Tigers 6 years, and tried to trade him during 2016 season

[JackCade]

As for this team's "window" or future payroll purgatory: Mike Ilitch's net-worth continues to climb, I remember when a decade or so ago he was at about $2bil, he is at $5.4 I saw somewhere.
Not one of us can say what Ilitch can or can't afford (beyond, you know, $5.4bil) or be willing to do unless we know him personally or have other inside info.

The man could if he wanted to could raise the payroll to $300mil per year, lose $160mil a year on the team for ten years, and maybe break even. After all, the team seems to be increasing in value by about that much each year.

So, as long as the Tigers continue to be competitive and have Ilitch or a like minded owner, they will always be competitive.

 

[Thumb]

So, as long as the Tigers continue to be competitive and have Ilitch or a like minded owner, they will always be competitive.

What?

 

[Rebbiv]

As for this team's "window" or future payroll purgatory: Mike Ilitch's net-worth continues to climb, I remember when a decade or so ago he was at about $2bil, he is at $5.4 I saw somewhere.
Not one of us can say what Ilitch can or can't afford or be willing to do, unless we know him personally or have other inside info.

The man could if he wanted to could raise the payroll to $300mil per year, lose $160mil a year on the team for ten years, and maybe break even. After all, the team seems to be increasing in value by about that much each year.

So, as long as the Tigers continue to be competitive and have Ilitch or a like minded owner, they will always be competitive.

A few things on "franchise" business. As long as Illitch is losing money on the Tigers, it precludes him from adding costs in other areas of the team, like player development and infrastructure. Both of which have been ignored and aren't necessarily without a need for cash infusion. He cannot take money from one franchise, i.e. Little Ceasar's, and transfer it to another. They are separate entities. So if an entity loses money year after year, it's value declines. It will also make it difficult to sell down the road if the payroll is not in a good proportion to revenue. Hence why teams have fire sales, ala Philadelphia. It is either a sign of pending sale or a need to adjust franchise value, or to make up for the years of overspending. One way to offset the costs, is to increase revenue. I doubt seriously the attendance will increase significantly, so they will have to jack the price of attendance, merchandise and/or concessions.

Additionally, Illitch is hardly the richest owner in baseball. Why don't other owners follow this model, especially those that are richer?

And news flash...they were not competitive in 2015 and we have yet to play a game in 2016.

 

[Rebbiv]

What?

He obviously doesn't understand what happened to the Philadelphia Phillies.

Maybe Detroit is "special".

 

[Rebbiv]

I do know you , im Sonnett . You are the same one who said Seth Smith is better than Cespedes because of the sabermetrics . Sorry man but imo we are alot better off heading into this season then we were last season . If you dont agree then fine , but just cause you dont agree doesnt make you right . Im thrilled wth the team we have and am again excited to start the season , as we have an owner who is willing to do whatever he can to keep us in it . Who cares about 5 years from now

So why the need for the different ID?

I said Seth Smith was a better fit (left handed hitter) and a better value.

I can make qualitative and quantitative arguments to back my position. So far, you have just presented the "because I say so" argument. I can have the opinion the world is flat. But unless I offer some substance behind that claim, I will be ridiculed. So is it on message boards. You can have an opinion you want. But usually there is a basis for that opinion. My opinion is derived from the study of statistical data. If you know me, I do not waiver from that. And while statistical data does not 100% predict future performance, it is far more reliable than the eye test or the think test.

 

[tomdalton22]

let's say Upton rakes for the next 2 years and opts out. Can the Tigers give him a qualifying offer and get a draft pick?

 

[RoscoeWallace]

So why the need for the different ID?

I said Seth Smith was a better fit (left handed hitter) and a better value.

I can make qualitative and quantitative arguments to back my position. So far, you have just presented the "because I say so" argument. I can have the opinion the world is flat. But unless I offer some substance behind that claim, I will be ridiculed. So is it on message boards. You can have an opinion you want. But usually there is a basis for that opinion. My opinion is derived from the study of statistical data. If you know me, I do not waiver from that. And while statistical data does not 100% predict future performance, it is far more reliable than the eye test or the think test.

I was banned on the other ID , not getting into that tho ....So ok you rely on the statistical data aspect to form your opinions and i rely on actually watching the game and the players , or as you call it the eye test . So because the statistical data way is your way , it must be right and far more reliable . Gotcha

I'll stick with the eye test , thank you

 

[RoscoeWallace]

let's say Upton rakes for the next 2 years and opts out. Can the Tigers give him a qualifying offer and get a draft pick?

yes

 

[dale675]

I was banned on the other ID , not getting into that tho ....So ok you rely on the statistical data aspect to form your opinions and i rely on actually watching the game and the players , or as you call it the eye test . So because the statistical data way is your way , it must be right and far more reliable . Gotcha

I'll stick with the eye test , thank you

The problem with the eye test is personal bias. A player you like you will give more leeway to. When they do something great, it sticks in your mind. When they are doing bad, you can easily over look it.

A player you dislike is just the same...every mistake they make will stick in your memory and you are quick to forget their good plays.

If the eye test is more accurate than statistical data, why are players given big contracts based soley on the #'s they put up, rather than well..he looks good....I think...lets pay him 100m?

 

[jdeb]

He obviously doesn't understand what happened to the Philadelphia Phillies.

Maybe Detroit is "special".

Not to mention what's going on with the Yankee's. They accounted for 80% + of the luxury tax in 2014 and are chipping away at it. There is a financial lesson here being ignored by the Tigers. Fire sales also bring very little value back into the organization. The loss of revenue will have a significant impact come sale time.

The problem with all of this is you can't spend like this in our market. It has a huge impact on player development. This model has been proven over and over again. We will lose two picks this year and pray to baseball Gods that we get value for the guys we got for Price and Cespedes. I'm not holding my breath. One guy is suspended for 50 games, another has or had cancer, and the other is in Triple A.

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

 

[jdeb]

let's say Upton rakes for the next 2 years and opts out. Can the Tigers give him a qualifying offer and get a draft pick?

The Tigers can give him a qualified offer if he opts out. So I assume we get a pick.

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

 

[RoscoeWallace]

The problem with the eye test is personal bias. A player you like you will give more leeway to. When they do something great, it sticks in your mind. When they are doing bad, you can easily over look it.

A player you dislike is just the same...every mistake they make will stick in your memory and you are quick to forget their good plays.

If the eye test is more accurate than statistical data, why are players given big contracts based soley on the #'s they put up, rather than well..he looks good....I think...lets pay him 100m?

Then why doesnt every team use the moneyball strategy ? Because it doesnt work , thats why . Owners , gm's , managers are constantly around the game and the players so they know who can do what by seeing it .

 

[JackCade]

tautology

What?

It is a tautology, but one that exists in reality.
Well, maybe.
Tautological arguments are bad but tautologies exist, you drive fast because you are angry, you get pulled over get a ticket, get angry, and drive fast, etc.

As long as the team is competitive it will continue to grow in value, and as long as Mr. I owns it, it will continue to be competitive because he, it seems, will continue to spend the money.

Folks who say, "windows closed" etc., are idiots because they do not know what the fuck they are talking about. You can't say the Tigers are over unless you know that they owner isn't going to spend the money to put the team in a position to be competitive or maybe the GM or Manager suck, or some other reason.

If Ilitch is willing to spend he can sign superstars to replace the aging stars while the aging stars are on the team, and NOT you nor I know whether he will or won't. Until he does or doesn't he might. He's shown though, time and time again, that he will.

As long as his GMs continue to be talented and Ilitch rich the Tigers are probably going to be a competitive team year in and year except for fluke seasons like 2015.

 

[Rebbiv]

Then why doesnt every team use the moneyball strategy ? Because it doesnt work , thats why . Owners , gm's , managers are constantly around the game and the players so they know who can do what by seeing it .

Do you even know what Moneyball is all about? It is about incorporating analytics into baseball decision making. More and more teams are doing it and supposedly the same with DET this year.

 

[JackCade]

NO. NO. NO. NO.

LOGIC!!!!!!!

Losing money only prevents the Tigers from developing their farm system if their owner doesn't want to spend the money.

He seems to want to.

As for the Phillies. Different owner also different talent level, different market and fan base means different outcome.


As for the Yankees, in many ways they are an entirely different situation comparable to no one.
Lots of things going on with the Yankees, some of them bad luck and lots of them just plain incompetence.

 

[JackCade]

The Tigers can give him a qualified offer if he opts out. So I assume we get a pick.

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

Avila said that they would get a pick.

 

[Rebbiv]

It is a tautology, but one that exists in reality.
Well, maybe.
Tautological arguments are bad but tautologies exist, you drive fast because you are angry, you get pulled over get a ticket, get angry, and drive fast, etc.

As long as the team is competitive it will continue to grow in value, and as long as Mr. I owns it, it will continue to be competitive because he, it seems, will continue to spend the money.

Idiots who say, "windows closed" etc., are idiots because they do not know that.

If Ilitch is willing to spend he can sign superstars to replace the aging stars while the aging stars are on the team.

As long as his GMs continue to be talented and Ilitch rich the Tigers are probably going to be a competitive team year in and year except for fluke seasons like 2015.

?This is a brand-new never-before seen product!? is considered a tautology because ?brand-new? and ?never-before seen? mean the same thing.

Let?s have a hypothetical conversation:


Me: Why is the Bible true?
JackCade: Because the Bible is infallible.
Me: Why is it infallible?
JackCade: Because the Bible is the word of God.
Me: How do you know it?s the word of God?
JackCade: Because the bible says it is the word of God.
Me: But how do you know that it?s telling you the truth?
JackCade: Because the Bible is infallible.


That my friend is also a tautology. Your insistence without prove is what makes it a tautology.

You do not know whether the Tigers will be competitive in 2016 until they start playing games. You don't know if it even will increase their team value. And you certainly don't know what Illitch will do in the future.

And why was 2015 a fluke? Is it because they didn't have Scherzer, Porcello and Smyly/Price in 3 of the 5 starters? And now Zimmermann, Pelfrey and pick a starter is back to the way it was?

 

[UMRules06]

It's not the full article because I no longer have an Insider account...but here is what Buster Olney wrote:

Justin Upton is in the midst of what has been an excellent Major League Baseball career -- he already has 190 homers before his 29th birthday -- and after a very good 2015 season, he just got a $132.75 million deal from the Detroit Tigers, a merger of player and team that was formally announced Wednesday.

It's a tremendous contract for him, and it wouldn't have been possible without the aggressiveness of Tigers owner Mike Ilitch, who has demonstrated time and again that he is willing to take money from would-be profits -- money out of his own pocket, really -- and spend it because he wants to win. Ilitch has been a great owner for the Tigers, providing a product that inspires the team's fan base.

But there's no getting around this reality: The signing of Upton by the Tigers to this massive contract, right now, is just bad baseball business.

Add the Upton contract to the many others with future payroll obligations that have stacked up for the Tigers, including Miguel Cabrera's, Justin Verlander's, Victor Martinez's and Anibal Sanchez's. Almost all of the sport's teams are getting younger, yet the Tigers are getting older. The fine print:

Cabrera, who will be 33 in April, is signed through the 2023 season, for another $240 million.

Verlander, who turns 33 next month, is signed for another four years at $28 million annually.

Pitcher Jordan Zimmermann turns 30 in May, and he is signed for $110 million over the next five years.

Victor Martinez, 37, is signed for $18 million annually for the next three seasons.

Anibal Sanchez, 32, is signed for $16.8 million per year in 2016 and 2017, with a $16 million team option or $5 million buyout for 2018.

And Upton, who turns 30 in August 2017, is signed through 2021, at more than $22 million per year.

So long as Ilitch steps in to add whopper contracts without regard to payroll, this has a chance to work. But eventually, the credit-card bill will come due. If and when the Tigers get in line with the usual way teams run their businesses, once that day of reckoning arrives, the team will have to dig itself out of a Grand Canyon-sized hole of contracts.

Source: http://espn.go.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post?id=12134

 

[Rebbiv]

NO. NO. NO. NO.

LOGIC!!!!!!!

Losing money only prevents the Tigers from developing their farm system if their owner doesn't want to spend the money.

He seems to want to.

As for the Phillies. Different owner also different talent level, different market and fan base means different outcome.


As for the Yankees, in many ways they are an entirely different situation comparable to no one.
Lots of things going on with the Yankees, some of them bad luck and lots of them just plain incompetence.

LOL. The Tigers have not spent on player development nor on infrastructure. Spending money on players does not refute that. Or makes a case that Illitch wants to spend money in this area.

And if you think Phillies to be entirely different from where they were to where they are now, in relation to the Tigers, I cannot help you.


As far as the Yankees, their core players got old and injured and they had no talent immediately available as replacements. They are still old, but have added some youth in recent years. Getting older, means having more injuries. That is a truism.

 

[JackCade]

First, re the Yankees they've made some dumb moves (CC?) and they do develop talent (relievers), but there are other things going on over there.

The Tigers are NOT the Phillies. Just cause one team overspends on stars that don't pan out doesn't mean that another team's stars and spending means the same thing. The Tigers have continued to adapt.

The Tigers have spent on infrastructure, what are you talking about? Do they not have cappuccino machines in all of the minor league dugouts or something?
Honestly, I think the Tigers problem with player development and infrastructure is because Dave Dombrowski is not a particularly good GM for that sort of thing.
The Tigers have had a haphazard minor league development strategy and have traded away talent.
Al Avila has set about changing the former and Ilitch has allowed him to not do the later.

So, tell me, how has Ilitch NOT spent on infrastructure?