Upton to Tigers 6 years, and tried to trade him during 2016 season

[jdeb]

I heard on the radio that Illitch pushed hard to sign Chris Davis but Avila talked him out of it. Hope Upton works out

I would have put miggy back at 3rd if that happened.

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[swami45]

He is gonna K a lot. Very streaky hitter.

I'm starting to wonder if Illitch is making these moves.

Big over-pay for an average player. Hope he has 2 great career years and opts out.

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How many average players amass 27 wins above replacement through age 27?

 

[kalinecountry]

$20+mil.

first year over the 189 is at 17% of the 20/21 million over, is about 3.5 miilion in luxury tax.

 

[Rebbiv]

Guaranteed 6 years at $132.75 Mil. Average annual salary of $22 Mil.

The signing puts DET at roughly $192 Mil payroll for just 17 players. League minimum is at least $500k for the last 8 spots, or $196 Mil. Yet, payrolls include all 40 and not just those on the 25-man roster. So really, DET's payroll sits at least at $204 Mil.

Additionally, there is $164 Mil guaranteed to just 9 players for 2017. Which, if they exceed luxury tax in 2017, the rate is 30%. Without a fire sale in the years to come, I do not see how they can avoid paying the luxury tax the next 3 seasons.

Justin Upton is barely an above average LFer (not even in the top 10 LFers) who is going to get paid an All Star salary for 6 years.

Last 3 Years UZR/150 = -3.3

Last 3 years Away

86.2 RC/650 .246 BAVG .331 OBP .439 SLG .770 OPS 9.6 PA/BB 26.8 PA/BB


Career Home

115.5 RC/650 .296 BAVG .377 OBP .530 SLG .907 OPS 10.2 PA/BB 21.5 PA/HR

Career Away

81.1 RC/650 .248 BAVG .327 OBP .419 SLG .746 OPS 10.8 PA/BB 32.5 PA/HR

Pros
He walks. He hits Home Runs. He has really good speed/base running.

Cons
He costs too much. He does not hit for average and tends to be streaky. He isn't above average defensively

So, DET had every intention on getting a LFer, whatever the cost. I could think of a few worse players (in my opinion) they could have gotten. And yes, he is better than what we had, but that isn't saying much. What this signing does is question the need for trading for Maybin. You traded for Maybin to do what exactly? And if it is to be the back up OFer, isn't $8 Mil (or even $5.5 Mil) a little excessive?

With this signing, DET probably improved by 3 wins easily. The question is if that was enough and whether it justifies the salary for the next 6 years. This move is better than the Maybin, Aviles and Pelfrey moves. Is that really a consolation?

 

[Sbee]

It's not my money so I love the move.

I heard he's related to Kate upton, maybe verlander pushed for this at Christmas dinner

 

[Thumb]

All this does is set us back even farther before we become financially viable as contenders.

A lot of money spent on a guy, and we still wont be as good as we were last year, which wasn't good enough for anything.

 

[swami45]

He is opting out in 2 years, he would be a fool not to. All it is is a 2 year 45 million dollar deal essentially

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[Mitchrapp]

He is opting out in 2 years, he would be a fool not to. All it is is a 2 year 45 million dollar deal essentially

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You think he'll get more money in 2 years at age 30? I don't see him opting out at all.

I'm also in the thinking that it's not my money and it's better than Maybin.

 

[swami45]

You think he'll get more money in 2 years at age 30? I don't see him opting out at all.

I'm also in the thinking that it's not my money and it's better than Maybin.

Absolutely, 2 years ago someone gave Shin Soo Choo more money at the age of 30. You think that Upton cant do better than that in two years after padding his stats in this lineup?

 

[Mitchrapp]

Absolutely, 2 years ago someone gave Shin Soo Choo more money at the age of 30. You think that Upton cant do better than that in two years after padding his stats in this lineup?

I assume if he goes huge, like 900+ OPS huge then yeah. I don't see that though. I just hope he at least stays status quo. And if he does, wise to keep the money you already signed for.

 

[Mitchrapp]

And btw, Shoo, did better before he went to Texas than after.

 

[@Stakesarehigh]

He is gonna K a lot. Very streaky hitter.

I'm starting to wonder if Illitch is making these moves.

Big over-pay for an average player. Hope he has 2 great career years and opts out.

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Average? He's the third best hitter at his position. Streaky I will grant you

 

[Rebbiv]

Average? He's the third best hitter at his position. Streaky I will grant you

Let's not exaggerate. He might be better than average, but there is no way he is the 3rd best hitting LFer.

Last year Away for LF (150 PA min, assumed park neutral stats)

35th in RC+

35th in wOBA


Last 2 years Away for LF (300 PA min, assumed park neutral stats)

24th in wRC+

24th in wOBA


Last 3 years Away for LF (450 PA min, assumed park neutral stats)

13th in wRC+

13th in wOBA


Last 4 years Away for LF (600 PA min, assumed park neutral stats)

20th in wRC+

20th in wOBA


Last 5 years Away for LF (750 PA min, assumed park neutral stats)

19th in wRC+

19th in wOBA


His actual Away Stats

2015 = 92 wRC+ .307 wOBA .312 OBP .402 SLG .714 OPS

2014 = 104 wRC+ .322 wOBA .307 OBP .427 SLG .734 OPS

2013 = 140 wRC+ .375 wOBA .372 OBP .488 SLG .860 OPS

2012 = 84 wRC+ .298 wOBA .326 OBP .344 SLG .670 OPS

2011 = 108 wRC+ .332 wOBA .328 OBP .439 SLG .767 OPS


2013 is the outlier here. Without it, his last 3 years Away stats would beg to say below average. With it, he is barely above average.

I do not know any top 5 hitters for their positions who have such a problem hitting on the road.

 

[jared]

Not to be crass, but when Illitch dies we are so screwed.

 

[johnny2x2x]

The last 3 seasons he is 18th among all outfielders in WAR, right behind Puig and ahead of Jacoby Elsbury. We added a nice piece who is just entering his prime. Probably overpaid a bit, but considering his age it's not a ridiculous contract. He's a top 20 outfielder.

 

[tomdalton22]

so...what might the lineups going to look like?

vs RH starter

Kinsler
Upton
Miggy
JD
V-Mart
Nick
Iggy
Salt
Gose

vs LH

Upton
Kinsler
Miggy
JD
V Mart
Nick
McCann
Iggy
Maybin

 

[hellifino]

I was hoping for Cespedes,but this will do.They waited long enough like when they got Prince,but Cespedes was prolly not dropping down in price.

 

[Rebbiv]

The last 3 seasons he is 18th among all outfielders in WAR, right behind Puig and ahead of Jacoby Elsbury. We added a nice piece who is just entering his prime. Probably overpaid a bit, but considering his age it's not a ridiculous contract. He's a top 20 outfielder.

Just trying to be helpful here for those that want to know.

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/

WAR is an approximation stat. If a player has a 6 WAR, he actually could be anywhere from 5 to 7 WAR. Saying he is 18th on a list in an approximation stat, could mean he is actually 36th.

WAR also is by no means a be all, end all stat.

WAR = (Batting Runs + Base Running Runs +Fielding Runs + Positional Adjustment + League Adjustment +Replacement Runs) / (Runs Per Win)

How many that use WAR understand what Batting Runs and Fielding Runs are? What are the components of each? What are their biases? Why should each OF spot get a positional adjustment? Why should an offensive player for the NL get a different adjustment? Additionally, most of these components are counting stats and not rate stats. By this nature alone, a player with an additional 50 or so plate appearances, given the same ability, would then have the higher WAR.

For me, WAR is certainly a conservation starter. But that is when it stops. Because very few, including some sabermatics, fully understand WAR and it's issue of usage.

 

[jdeb]

He is opting out in 2 years, he would be a fool not to. All it is is a 2 year 45 million dollar deal essentially

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If he has two average to crappy years, he may not.

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[jdeb]

Average? He's the third best hitter at his position. Streaky I will grant you

I don't know about that statement. Look, he is going to help us win maybe 85 games and I say 85 if everything goes right. So he makes us better at a high cost which will drive prices up. I'm going to support the team by buying a small season ticket package because the owner is spending hard to win. 85 wins might win this division because it looks like CHI, CLE, and MIN got better. KC did a nice job of staying the best. Hopefully, the improvements will tighten the race up so KC don't run away with it again. Our depth and bullpen are better than last year so if we can get solid starting pitching, we should be in this thing to the end.


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