That is a completely false statement.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/katoh-...r-league-performance-with-minor-league-stats/
http://pages.pomona.edu/~gjc04747/MiLB.pdf
http://www.baseballexaminer.com/faqs/stats_faq.htm
I could link ton more articles citing were minor league and/or past MLB performance can be predictive. For minor leagues, lower levels tend not to be predictive as explained in the PDF file. Yes, age at the various levels come into play, but it isn't like we forget the performance.
I get enough grief on here for my analysis of future performance based on past. Is this an exact science? Of course not. But it is more reliable than "because I said so" or "I believe he will". Statisticians have a history of organized baseball to research and develop theories. Which stats are predictive and which ones aren't. BAVG, in and of itself, only tells you how good a player has hand/eye coordination. Players like Darin Erstad can hit .355 BAVG one year. It doesn't make him a .300 hitter. A player like Alan Trammell can hit 28 Home Runs in a season, and it doesn't make him a HR hitter.
Baseball players, either Minors or Majors, have been playing the game for 15 years or more. You do not change a player from pretty much a .260 hitter into a .300 hitter, unless the ball park is a hitter's park or the player has a "fluke" season. A pitcher does not change control unless there is a overwhelming alteration of his delivery. And even then, his tendency is the revert back to what he had been doing for the past 10-15 years. Hence why coaches are important to spot these changes in mechanics.
Every spring, there is a story of Player A having his stance and/or approach at the plate altered (Brandon Inge, Austin Jackson, Shane Halter, etc, etc). Sometimes with positive results (even if for a short period, or season long). It is harder for pitchers. They can develop another pitch, but the motion and arm angle determine velocity and control. So what happened with Austin Jackson since the 2012 season? Or even since the first half on 2012?
Carlos Gomez did not play in a hitter's park in Minnesota. He goes to Milwaukee and a hitter's park. His away stats while in Milwaukee is well within his Minor League norms, especially AA and AAA. Go figure. go look at some the the Colorado player splits. Or even Texas Rangers. Then go look at San Diego or Seattle player splits. Ball parks and leagues, even in the minors, matter.
Anthony Gose has 1146 Plate Appearances and 3 years at AAA. More than enough for predictive analysis. .259 BAVG .335 OBP .372 SLG .707 OPS His best year was his first at age 21. He has regressed since. Or was it really a regression, considering he played in the PCL (a known hitter's league) that year and the other two were in the IL? Which then makes his .707 OPS in AAA skeptical. He has been well below .700 OPS at the MLB level, despite having played in a hitter's park in Toronto and a hitter's division in the AL East.
Gose Last two Seasons Away (MLB + AAA)
2013 - (305 PA, 77 at MLB) .222 BAVG .279 OBP .324 SLG .603 OPS
2014 - (259 PA, 130 at MLB) .226 BAVG .305 OBP .300 SLG .605 OPS
Lastly, I would dispute the notion we have solid offensive production in the corners. J.D. Martinez, at age 26, has just last year as a solid year. Above Rookie and low A ball, he has great offensive numbers (especially BAVG) with a great walk rate. Yet, for his AAA and MLB numbers, his walk rate has been doubled and his BAVG has been all over the place. Indicating it might be hard for him to repeat that success from last year. I am hopeful he can manage a .800 plus OPS. And until he repeats success, we don't know that 2014 wasn't a fluke.
Cespedes on the other hand has not been anything solid since his rookie season. He has not made any adjustments. He doesn't hit for average. He doesn't take a walk. He hits Home Runs, but not at a rate that is anything spectacular. How is this being solid?
It is one thing to say you are hopeful that the corner OFers will be solid. It is another to flat out to say it as if it is a fact. There is far more evidence to the contrary or at least suggest that the fact is debatable.
